Author Topic: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?  (Read 7451 times)

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« on: 10/12/2015 08:55 pm »
I really liked the phenomenal run Atlas V has had, and like others here would like it to fly indefinitely.

Circumstances appear to challenge this (put in other threads please, not here).

Atlas V will never be Vulcan or any other potential successor. 4 meter diameter, kerolox, launches Centaur, LC41/SLC3. It's still Atlas if cheaper or more costly, different solids/avionics/etc.

So for this thread, how many (and optionally, what will be the last tail number) of Atlas V remain to be launched?

How good is your crystal ball? If it's lousy don't post. If you want to complain for/against don't post.

Offline Newton_V

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #1 on: 10/12/2015 09:08 pm »
I'm guessing 50 more.  ~AV-110

Offline Jim

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #2 on: 10/12/2015 10:17 pm »
NASA has missions on it up to 2018

Offline baldusi

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #3 on: 10/12/2015 11:12 pm »
I would say around 100.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #4 on: 10/13/2015 01:47 am »
I really liked the phenomenal run Atlas V has had, and like others here would like it to fly indefinitely.

Circumstances appear to challenge this (put in other threads please, not here).

Atlas V will never be Vulcan or any other potential successor. 4 meter diameter, kerolox, launches Centaur, LC41/SLC3. It's still Atlas if cheaper or more costly, different solids/avionics/etc.

So for this thread, how many (and optionally, what will be the last tail number) of Atlas V remain to be launched?

How good is your crystal ball? If it's lousy don't post. If you want to complain for/against don't post.
make this a poll instead

Offline Prober

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #5 on: 10/14/2015 05:55 pm »
It's a pure numbers game with some politics mixed in.

Start with the first contract RD-180 engines 101
Subtract Launches to date                            58
Atlas V launches Contracted?

We don't know the details of the 2nd contract but do know ULA has 29 RD-180's in the last order.

Play with the numbers :)
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Offline russianhalo117

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #6 on: 10/14/2015 11:50 pm »
It's a pure numbers game with some politics mixed in.

Start with the first contract RD-180 engines 101
Subtract Launches to date                            58
Atlas V launches Contracted?

We don't know the details of the 2nd contract but do know ULA has 29 RD-180's in the last order.

Play with the numbers :)

Dont forget the ones that flew on Atlas IIAR and Atlas IIIA/B

Offline sdsds

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #7 on: 10/15/2015 05:34 am »
Another question to ask which might inform the answer to yours, "How many catastrophic launch failures (i.e. total LOV/LOM) will Atlas V suffer during its time as a launch system?" I'm guessing there will eventually be one, and if it is RD-180 related then there will be no return to flight.
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Offline Prober

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #8 on: 10/15/2015 02:45 pm »
It's a pure numbers game with some politics mixed in.

Start with the first contract RD-180 engines 101
Subtract Launches to date                            58
Atlas V launches Contracted?

We don't know the details of the 2nd contract but do know ULA has 29 RD-180's in the last order.

Play with the numbers :)

Dont forget the ones that flew on Atlas IIAR and Atlas IIIA/B

good point, not sure if those were considered development engines and part of the contract or no.  Remember also that one of the first "test" RD-180's out of P&W was sent back to Russia, tested and exploded.
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Offline Newton_V

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #9 on: 10/15/2015 03:47 pm »
It's a pure numbers game with some politics mixed in.

Start with the first contract RD-180 engines 101
Subtract Launches to date                            58
Atlas V launches Contracted?

We don't know the details of the 2nd contract but do know ULA has 29 RD-180's in the last order.

Play with the numbers :)

Dont forget the ones that flew on Atlas IIAR and Atlas IIIA/B

Atlas III is what IIAR became.
There were only 6 Atlas IIIs

Offline Newton_V

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #10 on: 10/15/2015 03:48 pm »
and if it is RD-180 related then there will be no return to flight.

That would only be the case if it happened during the last few flights.
And your comment applies to ANY LV and ANY engine at the end of it's run.
« Last Edit: 10/15/2015 03:53 pm by Newton_V »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #11 on: 01/18/2023 04:18 pm »
NASA has missions on it up to 2018
I know that this thread is over seven years old, but with respect to the remaining Atlas V flights, this year will see the last spy satellite launches involving the Atlas V but also the CFT launch aboard Atlas V (the first manned mission involving an SLV with the Atlas since the 1960s), and the last commercial communications satellite launch atop the Atlas V in the form of the ViaSat-3. Other than that, the six planned operational manned Starliner launches and nine Project Kuiper launches will be the only other remaining Atlas V launches, so there are 19 Atlas V launches left.

In other words, once NROL-107 and USSF-51 are launched, the Atlas V will spend the remainder of its operational career lofting civilian payloads other than ViaSat-3, namely the Kuiper satellites and Starliner spacecraft.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #12 on: 01/18/2023 07:12 pm »
NASA has missions on it up to 2018
I know that this thread is over seven years old, but with respect to the remaining Atlas V flights, this year will see the last spy satellite launches involving the Atlas V but also the CFT launch aboard Atlas V (the first manned mission involving an SLV with the Atlas since the 1960s), and the last commercial communications satellite launch atop the Atlas V in the form of the ViaSat-3. Other than that, the six planned operational manned Starliner launches and nine Project Kuiper launches will be the only other remaining Atlas V launches, so there are 19 Atlas V launches left.

In other words, once NROL-107 and USSF-51 are launched, the Atlas V will spend the remainder of its operational career lofting civilian payloads other than ViaSat-3, namely the Kuiper satellites and Starliner spacecraft.
And this is a bit awkward-looking. Kuiper will need launches as soon as the satellites can be manufactured and at the highest cadence that can be sustained, in order to meet the FCC deadline of 1638 satellites by 2026. However, the only other launches will be Starliner at a rate of once a year from this year until 2029. So I think we should anticipate five or six launches in each of 2024 and 2025, followed by one a year in 2026-2029.

The Kuiper Atlas V launches are front-loaded like this because the main Kuiper launchers, Vulcan and New Glenn, will not have ramped up for high-cadence operations in time to meed the 2026 deadline.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #13 on: 01/18/2023 08:17 pm »
NASA has missions on it up to 2018
I know that this thread is over seven years old, but with respect to the remaining Atlas V flights, this year will see the last spy satellite launches involving the Atlas V but also the CFT launch aboard Atlas V (the first manned mission involving an SLV with the Atlas since the 1960s), and the last commercial communications satellite launch atop the Atlas V in the form of the ViaSat-3. Other than that, the six planned operational manned Starliner launches and nine Project Kuiper launches will be the only other remaining Atlas V launches, so there are 19 Atlas V launches left.

In other words, once NROL-107 and USSF-51 are launched, the Atlas V will spend the remainder of its operational career lofting civilian payloads other than ViaSat-3, namely the Kuiper satellites and Starliner spacecraft.
And this is a bit awkward-looking. Kuiper will need launches as soon as the satellites can be manufactured and at the highest cadence that can be sustained, in order to meet the FCC deadline of 1638 satellites by 2026. However, the only other launches will be Starliner at a rate of once a year from this year until 2029. So I think we should anticipate five or six launches in each of 2024 and 2025, followed by one a year in 2026-2029.

The Kuiper Atlas V launches are front-loaded like this because the main Kuiper launchers, Vulcan and New Glenn, will not have ramped up for high-cadence operations in time to meed the 2026 deadline.
The remaining Atlas-V/Centaur-III's will begin to be stockpiled for on demand high launch cadence for offline storage and processing at CCSFS at the Atlas Operations Center (CCB), Delta Operations Center/Delta Processing Facility (Centaur-III) and solid motor and bunker storage (GEM-63) and on demand delivery via tractor trailer method (high capacity delivery cadence rail transport using intermodal containers hasn't been exercised with GEM motors yet).
« Last Edit: 01/18/2023 08:18 pm by russianhalo117 »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #14 on: 01/18/2023 09:35 pm »
I'm guessing 50 more.  ~AV-110

This is a closer guess than it has any right to be considering it was made in 2015, well done.
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Offline Vahe231991

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Re: How many remaining flights of Atlas V?
« Reply #15 on: 01/20/2023 08:23 pm »
NASA has missions on it up to 2018
I know that this thread is over seven years old, but with respect to the remaining Atlas V flights, this year will see the last spy satellite launches involving the Atlas V but also the CFT launch aboard Atlas V (the first manned mission involving an SLV with the Atlas since the 1960s), and the last commercial communications satellite launch atop the Atlas V in the form of the ViaSat-3. Other than that, the six planned operational manned Starliner launches and nine Project Kuiper launches will be the only other remaining Atlas V launches, so there are 19 Atlas V launches left.

In other words, once NROL-107 and USSF-51 are launched, the Atlas V will spend the remainder of its operational career lofting civilian payloads other than ViaSat-3, namely the Kuiper satellites and Starliner spacecraft.
And this is a bit awkward-looking. Kuiper will need launches as soon as the satellites can be manufactured and at the highest cadence that can be sustained, in order to meet the FCC deadline of 1638 satellites by 2026. However, the only other launches will be Starliner at a rate of once a year from this year until 2029. So I think we should anticipate five or six launches in each of 2024 and 2025, followed by one a year in 2026-2029.

The Kuiper Atlas V launches are front-loaded like this because the main Kuiper launchers, Vulcan and New Glenn, will not have ramped up for high-cadence operations in time to meed the 2026 deadline.
I agree that the New Glenn won't probably ramp up for high-cadence operations soon enough to meet the 2026 deadline, because in 2022, just 15 flights of New Glenn were contracted to launch Kuiper satellites, in contrast to 38 Vulcan launches being contracted to launch Kuiper satellites.

Link:
https://spacenews.com/amazon-signs-multibillion-dollar-project-kuiper-launch-contracts/

 

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