USCV-1: NASA planners slip first ISS commercial crew mission to late 2017

[Chris Bergin]

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2013/04/uscv-1-nasa-slip-iss-commercial-late-2017/

Via L2 documentation and some source work over the evening/night. We'll follow it up, given it's not official, it's planning documentation - but we have experience with how that works via the FAWGs for Shuttle, etc.

[wkann]

 Sadly, I'm not surprised that the first launch date may slip. I remember when STS 135 landed, and everyone was saying 2014-2015, Now late 2017 (probably 2nd quarter 2018) just unbelievable.   

Looks like SLS could beat the first Commercial Crew mission off the launch pad.  

[MATTBLAK]

Hard to stomach, but unsurprising.

[daveklingler]

Looks like SLS could beat the first Commercial Crew mission off the launch pad. 

I have a cynical suspicion that was the idea all along.

[riney]

So, if SpX is still hinting at 2015 for their first non-NASA crew, and they're still the nominal frontrunner, where's the year slip coming from? Docking hardware? Qualifying their longevity, assuming the commercial crew vehicles are expected to maintain the same six month on-orbit performance as Soyuz? Procedures and software on the ISS side? Quite curious about this.

[daveklingler]

So, if SpX is still hinting at 2015 for their first non-NASA crew, and they're still the nominal frontrunner, where's the year slip coming from? Docking hardware? Qualifying their longevity, assuming the commercial crew vehicles are expected to maintain the same six month on-orbit performance as Soyuz? Procedures and software on the ISS side? Quite curious about this.

I would guess that the manned Dragon's schedule will depend on the Bigelow-SpaceX partnership's ability to rent commercial station space.  If they get customers, they can fund earlier manned flights.  If they don't, they'd probably develop at the pace NASA sets.

[QuantumG]

Just so I can lose an equal number of friends on both sides of the fence:

I bet they don't even hit this date.

[anik]

http://www.interfax.ru/news.asp?id=299874

Aleksey Krasnov, head of department of manned programs of Roskosmos: "We discussed this subject on Baikonur Cosmodrome with our American colleagues. They say that taking into account the recent sequester of the budget first of all development of commercial projects will suffer. They don't exclude that readiness of space means for delivery of crews on ISS will be after planned terms. The end of 2017 doesn't sound any more".

[mlindner]

http://www.interfax.ru/news.asp?id=299874

Aleksey Krasnov, head of department of manned programs of Roskosmos: "We discussed this subject on Baikonur Cosmodrome with our American colleagues. They say that taking into account the recent sequester of the budget first of all development of commercial projects will suffer. They don't exclude that readiness of space means for delivery of crews on ISS will be after planned terms. The end of 2017 doesn't sound any more".

The google translate on that garbles the meaning. I'm not sure why you bolded what you did.

[anik]

The google translate on that garbles the meaning. I'm not sure why you bolded what you did

Okay, I'll try to explain. At Soyuz TMA-08M launch on Baikonur cosmodrome Aleksey Krasnov, the head of department of manned programs of Roskosmos, spoke with NASA representative (Gerstenmaier?) about beginning of flights of U.S. commercial manned spacecrafts to ISS. NASA representative told to him that, due to recent sequestrum of NASA budget, USCV-1 launch will be likely postponed further. In other words, he said that we should forget about possibility of USCV-1 launch in the end of 2017. Do you understand now?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Well I wonder what's the current plan for the manned test flights for Dragon/CST-100/Dreamchaser? I remember that USCV-1 has always been in 2017 since at least a year ago, but with the manned test flights in 2015-6 (IIRC, Dragon in 2015 and CST/DC in 2016).....

[Chris Bergin]

So, if SpX is still hinting at 2015 for their first non-NASA crew, and they're still the nominal frontrunner, where's the year slip coming from? Docking hardware? Qualifying their longevity, assuming the commercial crew vehicles are expected to maintain the same six month on-orbit performance as Soyuz? Procedures and software on the ISS side? Quite curious about this.

No, the problem is the money NASA would have to pay SpaceX -in the above example - to carry out the missions.

SpaceX *could* be technically ready in 2015 - let's assume that for the moment. They would likely launch their in-house crew that year to debut crewed Dragon, then....

SpaceX: "Ok, NASA - we're ready! Do whatever you need to certify us to launch your crews and make the check payable to "SpaceX", thanks!"

NASA: "Awesome! But, erm, well we don't have that cash just yet. We'll call you".

SpaceX aren't going to do it for free - and nor should they.

Now I assume political pressure will be mostly about keeping a US presence on the ISS - seats on Soyuz covers that and that's apparently cheaper than doing a CRS style award (never did get that - aren't seats on a commercial crew vehicle supposed to be cheaper....maybe because it would be a long term deal, like CRS's $3.5 billion or because they still have to pay Roscosmos for the back-up Soyuz?).

Could it force SLS EM-1 into an ISS crew run, per the 2010 Authorization Act? Goodness me that would be strange. EM-1 is supposed to be an uncrewed validation flight anyway, but to use that 70mt vehicle to send Orion on a LEO crew run would be like hiring an 18-wheeler to go shopping at the supermarket.

I just hope this all doesn't result in a rushed down-select to one provider to "save money".....and I'll go there....but if that was the threat, I bet even the biggest SLS supporter would say "Nooooo, slice something off the SLS/Orion budget!".

[aquanaut99]

Seriously, is anyone surprised by this? And, for once, I agree with Quantum: it won't happen in 2017 either. Maybe 2019, if we're lucky.

So we will have the situation I've predicted for a while now: Commercial crew to ISS will come online just as ISS is ending (2020, I don't believe in a prolongation to 2028, there's not gonna be any money for that, unless they cancel SLS).

So what was the whole point of commercial crew to ISS again?

[Rocket Science]

I said this last year that it’s going to curious to see U.S. built manned spacecraft on orbit while NASA continues to buy seats on the Russian Soyuz. I can’t wait for the political theatre (rubbing hands)... Let the hearings begin...    Oh BTW Congress, take a look in the mirror before you begin your gnashing of teeth and rending of garments...


Thanks for the article Chris.

[plank]

This only reassures my belief that the SLS will be canceled.  The political quagmire congress is becoming less and less dense for those idling on the issue.

[JohnFornaro]

They had a good plan, but they're not going to use it.

I'd say that what we are seeing is the pre-meditated use of promised funding instability to force a pre-mature downselect.

[Ben the Space Brit]

SpaceX *could* be technically ready in 2015 - let's assume that for the moment. They would likely launch their in-house crew that year to debut crewed Dragon, then....

SpaceX: "Ok, NASA - we're ready! Do whatever you need to certify us to launch your crews and make the check payable to "SpaceX", thanks!"

NASA: "Awesome! But, erm, well we don't have that cash just yet. We'll call you".

SpaceX aren't going to do it for free - and nor should they.

So, basically, what we're saying is that NASA is so bankrupt that it can't even afford to buy low-cost commercial flights to the ISS anymore? Terrific!

Now I assume political pressure will be mostly about keeping a US presence on the ISS - seats on Soyuz covers that and that's apparently cheaper than doing a CRS style award (never did get that - aren't seats on a commercial crew vehicle supposed to be cheaper....maybe because it would be a long term deal, like CRS's $3.5 billion or because they still have to pay Roscosmos for the back-up Soyuz?).

Could it force SLS EM-1 into an ISS crew run, per the 2010 Authorization Act? Goodness me that would be strange. EM-1 is supposed to be an uncrewed validation flight anyway, but to use that 70mt vehicle to send Orion on a LEO crew run would be like hiring an 18-wheeler to go shopping at the supermarket.

IMHO, the asteroid capture & visit it at EML-2 concept is indicative of a slow NASA retreat from SLS being a deep space mission enabler.  It's beginning to look like the agency either does not have enough money or it does not have the organisational aptitude to be a BEO human exploration agency; operating ETO missions to the ISS is basically all they can do.  I wonder if SLS/Orion is going to turn out to be the world's most uneconomical ETO crew taxi ever imagined?

Will the last person to leave JSC please remember to turn off the lights and lock the doors? Thanks.

[Space Pete]

Nice article Chris - someone needed to draw attention to this, as my fear is that NASA will continue to tell lawmakers that commercial crew is targeted for 2017, as they have said all along - meaning this one-year slip will go unnoticed.

But I just don't understand how there isn't money to buy ~$20-30m commercial crew seats, but there is the money to continue buying ~$70m Soyuz seats.

Unfortunately, I think a downselect to a single provider may be coming sooner than planned.

[psloss]

But I just don't understand how there isn't money to buy ~$20-30m commercial crew seats, but there is the money to continue buying ~$70m Soyuz seats.

Bigger question is do we (the U.S.) want to buy both and for how long?

[Orbiter]

Why wouldn't SpaceX still stick with the two non-NASA crew flight missions in 2015? The CCiCap deadlines didn't get totally destroyed of funding.