Author Topic: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys  (Read 11039 times)

Offline as58

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #20 on: 07/18/2011 02:28 am »

I'd think the Keck telescopes could be seen as more direct (descoped)descendants of the New Technology Telescope proposal.
...
My understanding is that the decadal surveys serve to assign priorities for NSF and NASA funding (not so much for "private" funding).
Not sure how much of the (initial) Keck funds came from NSF. NASA definitely joined in later (1998?) as part of the SIM/TPF efforts.

You're right, I forgot that NASA didn't join until after the telescopes (or at least the first one) were built.  I don't think NSF contributed much (or anything?) either initially.

Offline DARPA-86

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #21 on: 07/18/2011 03:05 am »
I'm sorry about constantly replying to my own thread, I promise this is the last one tonight.

Interestingly (and rather strangely, in my opinion) there's a short chapter on Astronomy from the Moon in the 1991 survey ("According to current plans for the manned space program, humanity's return to the moon is not expected to take place until sometime in the first decade of the 21st century").  They don't discuss any specific plans in detail, but briefly describe many possible observations. Does anyone (Blackstar?) know how this chapter came about? Was it the survey committee's own initiative or were they directed to write something about moon based astronomy given the expected return to the moon?
I will take a stab at this, and people are free to disagree on the concept; please remember the time frame.  In the summer of 1989 then President George HW Bush announced from the steps of the Air and Space Museum the formation of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) on the 20th anniversary of Apollo 11.  His exact words with Neil Armstrong,Buzz Aldrin, and Mike Collins standing by his side, "For the new century, back to the moon, back to the future, and this time back to stay.  And then a journey into tomorrow, a journey to another planet, a manned misison to Mars."  This was a Presidential directive, with oversight by the office of the Vice-President to lay out essentially a two decade direction for US human space flight.

There were a number of project studies commissioned, or existing ones refined, along with cost estimates to accompany the scope of these respective projects.  Your dark side of the moon astronomy complex is the result (most probably) of one of those project studies, which was assembled into a 90 day report for the President.  A report which had an initial price tag of nearly half a trillion dollars - so that in turn spurred another series of extended time period studies, some 180 days and some for a full year.

The problem was NASA did not want to take on the extra work load - then Administrator Dick Truly was working his own agenda, one that did not involve major new initiatives beyond LEO for the agency.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #22 on: 07/18/2011 03:09 am »
So it was apparently something that the committee was asked to do by the sponsors, just as you thought.

Yep, that's usually how it happens.

One problem is that external events can happen faster than the study timeframe. For instance, the planetary decadal started in late 2008 (it did not really get underway until 2009). The SOT sought input on the role of humans in planetary exploration. The report was finished in March 2011, but Obama had canceled the lunar goal in the budget released in Feb 2010.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #23 on: 07/18/2011 01:44 pm »
I've been told that the first two astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys are available on Google Books. But I have not checked on that myself.

Offline as58

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #24 on: 07/18/2011 01:58 pm »
I've been told that the first two astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys are available on Google Books. But I have not checked on that myself.

That was the second place I checked after right after NAP. They have scanned the books, but the full text doesn't seem to be available for the first two surveys.

Offline hoku

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #25 on: 07/18/2011 06:23 pm »
Does anyone know if the first two (1964 and 1972) decadal surveys are available anywhere online? The 1980s and later surveys are easily found (http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_052876), but I've had no luck locating the old ones.

I stumbled across a copy of "A long-range program in space astronomy - Position paper of the Astronomy Missions Board from 1969" - see http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19690031761 for the PDF. While sponsored by NASA, it was quite a community effort, with 49 scientists on the panels and the board.

As it also includes a chapter on "GROUND-BASED ASTRONOMY IN AN INTEGRATED NATIONAL PROGRAM", this might have been the first coherent "vision" of space- and ground-based astronomy programs (the 1964 decadal report was entitled "Ground-based Astronomy: A Ten-Year Program").

Does anyone know when NASA had established the "Astronomy Missions Board" (AMB)?

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #26 on: 07/18/2011 10:57 pm »
Okay, here is the 1964 astronomy decadal survey, the very first one. I photocopied and scanned it this evening. It is about 110 pages.

Although I have located a copy of the 1972 one, I'm not going to get around to scanning that anytime soon. For one thing, I don't know how to photocopy it without cracking the spine (it's brittle) and it's not my copy. For another, the report is divided into two volumes (vol 2 is the report of the science panels) and the second one is pretty thick.

If I can get a less delicate copy of vol 1, I could scan it, but that will have to wait.

Offline as58

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #27 on: 07/18/2011 11:48 pm »
Okay, here is the 1964 astronomy decadal survey, the very first one. I photocopied and scanned it this evening. It is about 110 pages.

Although I have located a copy of the 1972 one, I'm not going to get around to scanning that anytime soon. For one thing, I don't know how to photocopy it without cracking the spine (it's brittle) and it's not my copy. For another, the report is divided into two volumes (vol 2 is the report of the science panels) and the second one is pretty thick.

If I can get a less delicate copy of vol 1, I could scan it, but that will have to wait.


Thank you very much for your effort. Reading the report is a great way to spend yet another working day doing something completely unrelated to my work.

I may have located a paper copy of the 1972 survey myself, although I won't know for certain until tomorrow. The old books that probably no-one's read in years may not always be where they should, especially as the library collections have been moved at least a couple of times to different buildings. If I find it and it's not in too bad condition, I can try to scan it later this week

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #28 on: 07/18/2011 11:52 pm »
Digital camera instead of a scanner?
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Offline hoku

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #29 on: 07/19/2011 06:00 pm »
Okay, here is the 1964 astronomy decadal survey, the very first one. I photocopied and scanned it this evening. It is about 110 pages.

Although I have located a copy of the 1972 one, I'm not going to get around to scanning that anytime soon. For one thing, I don't know how to photocopy it without cracking the spine (it's brittle) and it's not my copy. For another, the report is divided into two volumes (vol 2 is the report of the science panels) and the second one is pretty thick.

If I can get a less delicate copy of vol 1, I could scan it, but that will have to wait.


Thanks! Clearly written and strigently argued report. Also, in some respects we do not seem to have progressed much since the 1960s:

Estimating the cost of large research instruments that have not yet been built is admittedly difficult. The Panel is well aware of the fact that the figures submitted in this Report may meet with considerable skepticism. Such doubts are not surprising in view of the number of times that enthusiastic proponents of new research facilities in the physical sciences have seriously underestimated the cost. Astronomical ventures have by no means been immune from this experience.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #30 on: 07/19/2011 10:46 pm »
I think it's in the ballpark of being on-topic. (As I've noted before, there are no threads dedicated specifically to missions, specifically to science missions/spacecraft, or specifically to space science. The entire site creates the impression that the only thing that matters is the rockets and not what goes on top of them.)

Your observation that the first decadal was highly successful is pertinent, because that proved true for the second and third decadals as well. The success rate was rather amazing--the community clearly identified what was most important, and those things got built.

It was for this reason that decadal surveys were implemented in Earth sciences, planetary sciences, and heliophysics.

And it is for this reason (and others) that some people want a "human spaceflight decadal survey."  They think that it can emulate the success of the science decadals, despite being entirely different environments.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #31 on: 07/19/2011 10:51 pm »
Thanks! Clearly written and strigently argued report. Also, in some respects we do not seem to have progressed much since the 1960s:

Estimating the cost of large research instruments that have not yet been built is admittedly difficult. The Panel is well aware of the fact that the figures submitted in this Report may meet with considerable skepticism. Such doubts are not surprising in view of the number of times that enthusiastic proponents of new research facilities in the physical sciences have seriously underestimated the cost. Astronomical ventures have by no means been immune from this experience.

I actually had a better example of that in one of my TSR articles a few weeks ago (I think it was my article on Easterbrook). There was a reference to an early 1970s GAO report indicating that cost overruns on large acquisition programs (usually military--aircraft, ships, etc.) were about 30%-40%. It turns out that GAO produced several reports in the past 3-4 years that found that this is still true. Nearly four decades later and nothing has changed.  Why?

I will note, however, that with the recent decadal surveys the NRC conducted independent cost estimates, which applied a rigor to this particular process that did not previously exist.

Offline truth is life

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #32 on: 07/21/2011 02:41 am »
Note that astronomy has been doing this since the 1960s. Earth sciences did their first one in 2007. Heliophysics did their first around 2002 and is doing their second. Planetary science did their first in 2001 and just finished their second. (I was a study director for the most recent one.)

Huh, I thought planetary science had been doing them a lot longer. I know I have some NAS reports from the early '70s involving planetary science (although perhaps those were astronomical as well; I particularly remember one that mentioned Gravity Probe B ahead of Voyager in terms of funding importance...), and they seemed like a decadal survey-sort of thing.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #33 on: 07/22/2011 05:10 am »

Huh, I thought planetary science had been doing them a lot longer. I know I have some NAS reports from the early '70s involving planetary science (although perhaps those were astronomical as well; I particularly remember one that mentioned Gravity Probe B ahead of Voyager in terms of funding importance...), and they seemed like a decadal survey-sort of thing.

No. There were some similar efforts, but they were not the same. There was a mid-90's study that was a pro to-survey.

Offline ngc3314

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #34 on: 07/24/2011 09:06 pm »
On page 56 there's a mention of an unsuccessful attempt at Sugar Grove to build a steerable 600 foot radio telescope. Some quick searching shows that it was the Naval Research Laboratory's project that was halted in 1962. Does anyone know an online source with more information than can be found in a couple of minutes using search engines? 

The best thing I could turn up online is with Google Books, a news article from New Scientist on Aug 30, 1962. It deals with cancellation of the project, mentioning the cost and engineering problems. The writer infers that a major factor was that satellite signals intelligence could by then do better than the original purpose of the 600-foot dish (which was to have been in large part moonbounce eavesdropping).

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #35 on: 07/25/2011 04:04 pm »
It deals with cancellation of the project, mentioning the cost and engineering problems. The writer infers that a major factor was that satellite signals intelligence could by then do better than the original purpose of the 600-foot dish (which was
to have been in large part moonbounce eavesdropping).
 

I'm going to reply with a nonspecific vague answer because of foggy memory.

There is probably nothing online, but believe it or not, there is a world beyond the net...

I believe that about a decade ago a former NRL historian (since deceased) wrote a history article on this big dish. I don't know if he ever published it. I will check my files.

It definitely had intelligence collection as a primary or strong secondary mission. There may be a chapter about it in a collection of articles about the history of radioastronomy. I will look and ask around.

Offline as58

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #36 on: 08/03/2011 01:51 pm »
Here's the 1970's decadal survey's Volume 1. I'm sorry it took this long to finally send it, I got distracted with other things...  Volume 2 is much longer, almost 500 pages, and not as easily available to me, so I can't me any promises about scanning that one. I think Volume 1 is the more interesting one for most people anyway.

It seems I accidentally left out most of the page numbers in the scans, so using the index isn't as easy as it could be.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #37 on: 08/03/2011 02:09 pm »
Many thanks for that.

The Board on Physics and Astronomy has posted the 1960s one to their website after I scanned it.

http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/index.htm

It's at the bottom of this page:

http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_048094#1977

We discussed making a copy of the 1970s one, but we need to get a copy that we won't damage while copying it (i.e. one with a library reinforced spine). Nobody has stepped up on that one yet, however.

The Space Studies Board recently produced the latest edition of their DVD with all of their reports on it. However, the first and second astronomy decadal surveys are BPA reports, not SSB reports, and are not on there. We are considering including them on the next version of the DVD, labeled as BPA reports.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #38 on: 08/03/2011 04:11 pm »
Many thanks for that.

The Board on Physics and Astronomy has posted the 1960s one to their website after I scanned it.

http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/index.htm

It's at the bottom of this page:

http://sites.nationalacademies.org/BPA/BPA_048094#1977

We discussed making a copy of the 1970s one, but we need to get a copy that we won't damage while copying it (i.e. one with a library reinforced spine). Nobody has stepped up on that one yet, however.

The Space Studies Board recently produced the latest edition of their DVD with all of their reports on it. However, the first and second astronomy decadal surveys are BPA reports, not SSB reports, and are not on there. We are considering including them on the next version of the DVD, labeled as BPA reports.

Have you looked into borrowing an Elmo ( http://www.elmousa.com/index.php ) from someone? You would not have to fully open the report it to scan it.

I would volunteer, but suspect my wife's elmo is safely locked in her class room until September. That and the risk of her breaking my fingers.
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Offline Blackstar

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Re: Old astronomy and astrophysics decadal surveys
« Reply #39 on: 08/04/2011 10:38 pm »
I believe that about a decade ago a former NRL historian (since deceased) wrote a history article on this big dish. I don't know if he ever published it. I will check my files.

It definitely had intelligence collection as a primary or strong secondary mission. There may be a chapter about it in a collection of articles about the history of radioastronomy. I will look and ask around.

Yeah, responding to my own post with a non-specific update.

I went through my files and did not find anything useful. However, I know that it exists, but I just don't know where I filed it. I did find a declassified article from Studies in Intelligence called "Sigint in Space" that dealt with some of the very early thinking about satellite sigint from one person's perspective. Mostly he described some experiments involving the Arecibo telescope detecting signals from Russia that bounced off the Moon or off the ionosphere.

I asked somebody else about the proposed big dish and he seemed to remember a chapter in a history of the Naval Research Lab that discussed this project. I know that I've seen a sketch of the proposed giant dish.

Unfortunately, I'm just not turning up anything yet. I think that this recent presentation refers to the dish that you're interested in:

www.aoc.nrao.edu/events/radioISM/talks/Kellerman.pdf

But I am positive that there is more out there. I just need to locate it.

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