Predictions 2020

[Proponent]

A large meteor will burn up over Canada. It will be caught on video

apparently this happened!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5214786

I get one more point!

A bold bolide prediction.

[Eric Hedman]

My 2019 predictions weren’t as good as my 2018 predictions.  Most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.  So here goes:

Deja Vu all over again.
My 2020 predictions weren’t as good as my 2019 predictions.  Most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.

NASA planetary program
        Mars 2020 launches as planned.

The one I got right early.

Space Tourism
        Blue Origin  (everything a year later than last year’s predictions)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
                Jeff Bezos Offers Elon Musk a ride – Musk passes on opportunity
        Virgin Galactic
                Richard Branson takes flight in Q2
                First tourist flight in Q3

Always next year.

Space Tourism

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Demo 2 with crew on board flies by end of April
                One crew rotation flight by end of year
        CST-100
                Crewed test flight pushed to October and successful

A year Boeing would like to forget.

SLS
        Production contracts SLS including EUS move forward
        Stays on schedule for 2021 launch

Maybe, but looking doubtful.

Orion
       Discuss with ESA possibility of bigger service module with greater Delta-V
       Will be ready for 2021 flight of Artemis 1

Not that I''ve heard of.

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record - One first stage gets to its fifth flight (finally in 2020)
        Two more Falcon Heavy launches
        Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
                Quiet discussions with NASA about possible alternative to SLS - specific Senator blows his top

Not too far off.  Starship is moving a little faster than I expected

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                First stage prototype built and fit checked on launch pad that is not done
                Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond

I was too optimistic on this.

        New Moon Lander
                Team with Lockheed, NGIS and Draper gets NASA funding

Got this one right.

ULA
        All launches successful
        Vulcan development continues on schedule 

Got this one right.

Small Launchers
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2020)

Too optimistic.

        Rocket Lab
                Continues to grow (same prediction as last year)

Got this one right.

Stratolauncher
        New owner moves forward with test flights of carrier aircraft
        Will remain very secretive about plans

They are not as secretive as I thought.  But they are pretty much doing what I suspected they would.

Lunar landers
        NASA will fund initial development of both Blue Origin’s team and Boeing’s concept

Half right.  The bad year continues for Boeing

ISS
        Commercial crew delivers astronauts on both Dragon & CST-100
        Outside of commercial crew little attention will be paid to ISS

Half right.  The bad year continues for Boeing

Gateway
        PPE development on schedule
        Minimal habitation module moves forward on schedule
        ESA starts developing Esprit module
        Russia - talk but still no agreement to contribute

Did not see the combining of PPE and the habitation module coming.  Right about Russia not agreeing to join.

Artemis Program
        NASA gets budget estimate and timeline to Congress by end of May
               Includes concepts for lunar surface operations and initial habitat 

Meh.

Mars
        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues still eyeing 2024 in space test
        Concepts for Mars missions using Nuclear Thermal in 2030s come out by year’s end
                Concept includes leaving from Gateway to Mars
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved from 2022 to 2024

Right on NTR development.  Did not see any updates on using NTR to go to Mars.  While nothing announced about Starship to Mars moving from 2022 to 2024, I still think 2022 is not going to be possible.

I'm predicting another optimistic year with lots of positive activity

It was a good year for many things (not counting Covid-19 including my battle with it.).  I'm going to trim my optimism a little for 2021.

[Toast]

I predict that most predictions here will turn out to be wrong.

As is tradition.

My predictions:
-Artemis I gets another delay.
-Russia has at least two launch failures.
-No space tourism launches from Blue Origin or Virgin Galactic.
-SpaceX loses at least one Starship prototype to failure, but successfully reaches orbit by end of year.

Well,
-Artemis was delayed again
-Russia has had no launch failures
-There weren't any space tourism launches
-SpaceX did lose a Starship prototype, but won't be reaching orbit this year

2.5 out of 4.

[moreno7798]

Lets do this...

1. Spaceship SN1 does not fly until late late Q1 or early to middle Q2
2. Boca Chica residents all settle with SpaceX and vacate BC by the end of 2020
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2020.
4. SpaceX has 1 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
5. SpaceX recovers 40% of all F9 launch fairing.
6. SpaceX achieves 23 successful launches in 2020.
7. FH's main core lands safely.
8. Starlink goes live for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2020.
9. Musk unveils Mars-Specific TBM hardware during his yearly SpaceX update.
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
11. Year 4 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
12. JWST is delayed again.
13. Mars 2020 Rover launches on time (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
14. There are no Alien signals detected coming out of the astronomy community.
15. A flat earther launches to space, sees the curvature of the earth, then claims he was seeing a simulation projected onto his retina from the sides of the ship's windows.

OK. Let's see how I did:


1. Spaceship SN1 does not fly until late late Q1 or early to middle Q2
-I was on track to fairly accurate fly date but of course it RUD Feb. 28 (.5)
2. Boca Chica residents all settle with SpaceX and vacate BC by the end of 2020
-Nope. Many are still there. (0)
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2020.
-I will call this one correct. A few test flights but no paying humans nor Branson on board. (1)
4. SpaceX has 1 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
-All successes to this point. (0)
5. SpaceX recovers 40% of all F9 launch fairing.
-SpaceX recovered 17 fairings from sea or vessel out of 26 F9 launches. well over 40% (1)
6. SpaceX achieves 23 successful launches in 2020.
-26 in 2020. (1)
7. FH's main core lands safely.
-No launch in 2020. FH is basically dead with Starship rapid development taking center stage and now being SpaceX's priority. Maybe a few FH launches in the next two years. (0)
8. Starlink goes live for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2020.
-In BETA for selected customers (.5)
9. Musk unveils Mars-Specific TBM hardware during his yearly SpaceX update.
-Musk did mentioned in a tweet that specialized TBM hardware would be needed to launch on SS but nothing specific. (0)
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
-Nothing yet. (0)
11. Year 4 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
-Yes. We all still wonder if this thing will survive a Biden administration. (1)
12. JWST is delayed again.
-Yep. It's been consistently delayed since its inception in 2007. (1)
13. Mars 2020 Rover launches on time (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
-Yep. Launch in the year it was intended. (1)
14. There are no Alien signals detected coming out of the astronomy community.
-Almost right. There is a possible Proxima Centauri signal. (0)
15. A flat earther launches to space, sees the curvature of the earth, then claims he was seeing a simulation projected onto his retina from the sides of the ship's windows.
-No. But Trump did get a dose of reality. (0)


(7 of 15)

[Redclaws]

“ -SpaceX recovered 17 fairings from sea or vessel out of 49 F9 launches. well over 40% (1)”
Errrrrrrr.  .4 *49 = 19.6

[moreno7798]

“ -SpaceX recovered 17 fairings from sea or vessel out of 49 F9 launches. well over 40% (1)”
Errrrrrrr.  .4 *49 = 19.6

That was a typo. Correction made.

[Lar]

My predictions for 2020.. somewhat rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2020 predictions:

How'd I do? Let's see...

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 15 flights, I guessed 24 in the poll)
I set the bar too low, this was easy. 1 point

- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (down from last year's prediction of 6 or less)
Yup. 2 points

- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 90% in 2019 which was my prediction, let's try again)
They had one deliberate expend and 2 failures. the number of launches that weren't deliberate expend is over 20 so this is a win. 3 points

- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered (more optimistic about recovery than 2019)
FH is the red headed stepchild now. NO launches for you! 3/4

- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (revised from last year)
12.5 km is not exactly 100 so no 3/5

- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (revised from last year)
sort of. There is a comment period about expanding the launch license. Call it half right.3.5/6

- CommsX constellation will see at least another 240 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission, that's only 4 dedicated, there are way more on the manifest)
Easy win. 4.5/7

- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Vegas boring completed but maybe not operational yet.
missed on both of those. the boring is done tho. 4.5/8

- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups
well yeah. 5.5/9

- Dragon 2 will launch with crew/passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year)
Mos def 6.5/10

- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last two years)
if wishes were fishes. 6.5/11

- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 60% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 4 fairing half will be reused successfully. (up from 40% and 1 reused fairing half)
I don't think we're quite there yet. Next year this one wins though I think. 6.5/12

- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration
Actually, no. (do you agree?) it's honing in. 6.5/13

- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020
well sort of, the numbering/abbreviation scheme changed a bit, now it's "booster" instead of SH so .. half. 7/14

- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc)
Nope. 7/15

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2020 (reversal of last year)
Sadly, no. I was being nice. Should have bet the other way.  Next year I win this one I think. Maybe? 7/16

- Boeing will skate right into the first crewed test flight without having to repeat the uncrewed, through some skullduggery of some sort.
I am so glad to be wrong about this one but they're up to something, I know it.  7/17

- NASA's tilt toward Boeing which was evident in 2019 becomes even more pronounced and Boeing will capture the flag even if it means delaying Dragon by months and months so they can win.
Also glad. Dragon captured the flag and had another mission as well by year end. 7/18


- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (fourpeat)
No sign of any movement at all right? I can't award this. I should cut it, they gave up on Centaur. 7/19

- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (fourpeat)
Not that I know of. 7/20

- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)
Well yeah. 8/21


- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 3 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (last year was >5, this year is <4).
The launch part right. They haven't announced cessation but they might as well have. 8.5/22

- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
Again no. 8.5/23

- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
He's been snarky. But his response to the SN8 launch was gracious. half right. 9/24

- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)
Well yeah. 10/25

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
Well yeah. green run anyone? 11/26

- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)
Well yeah.  But there has been a lot of innovative contracting and proposals. half right. Maybe I'm too cynical? 11.5/27


- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of last year)
Not exactly. 7 launches, 1 failure so 6 successes but not 8 total. half right. 12/28.

- By year end there will be an Electron recovery, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (new)
From the sea. 13/29


- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year... cmon)
Again no. 13/30

- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (repeat of last year...)
Nope. One try, a failure. Maybe next year. 13/31

- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed
Hasn't found a paying customer that I'm aware of, isn't mothballed. Half right. 13.5/32

- There will continue to be shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one startup in existence at the start of 2020 will exit by the end of 2020
I should cut this, it's too wishywashy. Yes. 14/33

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).
China is not that private. so no.14/34

- NSF's new look will see some minor refinement but nothing as big as late 2019
we continue to make improvements. cut this next year for horn tooting. 15/35

- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)

Sadly, yeah 16/36

Wow, that's horrid. Not even 50% Too optimistic in some places too pessimistic in others.

[niwax]

The year isn't quite done, but let's see how I did.

Falcon 9 will break 20 launches with at least 20 successes
Easy. 1/1

Starship will achieve orbit before the end of Q3
A tad optimistic. 1/2

Starship will land from orbit or at least successfully simulate a water landing
Not without going to orbit first. 1/3

Both CC providers will fly meat but NASA will still be in a political mess over Soyuz seats
Never overestimate Boeing. 1/4

A Starlink product with pricing will be announced before the end of Q3
$100 beta? Sure, why not. 2/5

Select customers will have Starlink access
See above. 3/6

Elon Musk will present a future plan either at IAC or with Maezawa
Ha. Remember conferences? Not even half a point for that five minute interview with the Mars Society. 3/7

Both BO and Virgin tourist offerings will get pushed to Q4 at the earliest
Q4 what year? 4/8

There will be at most one tourist flight and it will be explicitly presented as experimental
At most can mean zero. 5/9

Vector or its former CEO will come back with something space related and just as dodgy
I really didn't expect this wildcard to pay off. 6/10

BO will announce another concept, either lander, rocket configuration or tourist product
Wow, an entire new moon landing system! 7/11

SpaceX will fly a rideshare in H2
Unless they pull it off in the next week, it just barely slipped. 7/12

EELV2 contracts will be awarded with old vehicles expected to fly some missions
Yep, and Atlas is still here. 8/13

Vulcan development will continue on track
The engine schedule still looks odd, but ULA kept their target dates so far. 9/14

SLS won't
Maybe they'll finish they November testing in 2021. 10/15

Starship will appear in an official NASA presentation
Wohoo, moon landers! 11/16

Not too bad, I knew the Starship stuff was a bit enthusiastic. Kind of funny how the only big misses are the SpaceX programs that are going like hell.

[Proponent]

I'll go bolder still:  ULA (Vulcan, with Atlas V as a partial back-up) and NGIS (OmegA) win the Phase 2 Air Force launch competition.  ULA gets the 60% share, NGIS the 40%.

Well, I guess I was 40% wrong, since ULA got 60% but it was SpaceX, not NGIS, that got 40%.

[ncb1397]

A Starlink product with pricing will be announced before the end of Q3
$100 beta? Sure, why not. 2/5

Hate to burst your bubble on this one, but the starlink product offering with pricing was a couple weeks past Q3.

[Kryten]

US
SS2 flies a few pathfinder passenger flights but isn't truly operational (I'll consider this false if they get more than four flights in or more than once a month) - arguably pathfinders, but no paid passenger service
NS crew flights take place in the second half of the year, no real paid passenger service - Nope. they only got one flight in, which you could blame on You Know What but i have a feeling this wouldn't have happened anyway. Never bet on Blue.
Astra reach orbit but not on the first attempt - No - but very close
Another Stealth Space company enters prominence No
No more than two US lunar landers launch and no more than one successfully lands - Very much yes
Starliner and Crew Dragon first operational flights both have no more than minor issues absolutely not
No Starliner OFT-2 well, there wasn't one this year, but i'm pretty sure i meant none at all

China
None of the liquid-fueled private rockets makes orbit successfully by the end of the year - yes, ZQ-2 is pushed to middle 2021
No failures on established launchers (those that have already flown before the start of the year) happened twice
Chang'e 5 completes it's mission successfully yep

Europe
Exomars 2020 becomes Exomars 2022 this was basically a free space. I was so optimistic last year...
Ariane 6 slips to 2021 hah! they wish!

Russia
No complete failures yep

Others
DPRK shows off a larger engine or an engine cluster, but no SLV launches. no, very quiet on that front
Egypt show off an orbital launcher concept no


Overall
110-130 launches yes
5-8 complete failures (lots of maiden launches this year) nine! I thought this one was pessimistic at the time
China>US>Russia launch totals (with electron not counting as US) yes
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year incredibly, yes
VS-50 is tested successfully (really hoping for this one, those guys need a break...) nope

8/20 = 40%. I broke my streak of getting a few percent better every year - though you can hardly blame someone for failing to predict this year, of all years, accurately.

[Bubbinski]

Okay here goes.

- The world geopolitical situation remains tense but won’t go completely pear shaped this year like I’d been expecting, so no space warfare, no huge debris belts. Yet.

RIGHT. Although Armenia and Azerbaijan went at it and we almost went to war with Iran. The geopolitical situation didn’t go pear-shaped, but the overall world situation did due to COVID.

- NASA budget stays about the same, the impeachment drama sucks all the oxygen out of the air on Capitol Hill so to speak, leaving no room for big budgetary decisions. It’s an election year so no big cuts or increases. Fireworks with budget or world situation wait till 2021.

RIGHT. Though Artemis didn’t get all the funding that it wanted for the lander.

- First commercial lunar landers will be flight-ready by the end of 2020.

WRONG. Not yet. This year though.

- SLS aces its green run and will be almost flight-ready by the end of 2020, but there will be whispers from the winning presidential team and Congress about cancelling the program or cutting it down to only a few flights due to escalating costs and increasingly viable alternatives

WRONG. No green run yet. Didn’t even hear any whispers from Congress, they were too busy with impeachment then COVID.

- Starship makes it to orbit atop Super Heavy a week or two before Christmas next year. A timetable will be announced for crewed flights.

WRONG on both counts, though spectacular progress was made, there were setbacks as well like the SN4 explosion.

- Elon will announce another paying human customer for Starship (like I’d expected this year).

WRONG. The customer was AXIOM for Crew Dragon.

- SpaceX Falcon 9 will fly 20 flights, all successful. Falcon Heavy will fly once.

HALF RIGHT. F9 flew 26 times, but no FH flights.

- DM-2 will send Americans back to space from US soil this spring, and will “capture the flag”. Boeing CFT follows 2-3 months later. USCV rotation flights operational by end of 2020

HALF RIGHT. DM-2 and Crew-1 happened. But CFT got pushed back due to OFT-1 issues.

- Mars 2020 and the UAE Hope mission will launch successfully to Mars. The ExoMars will be delayed to 2022 due to parachute issues and the Chinese will also need till 2022 to be ready to launch their orbiter/rover

HALF RIGHT. Perseverance and Hope both launched successfully, and ExoMars was indeed delayed to 2022. However, the Chinese launched Tianwen in 2020 too.

- Solar Orbiter launches successfully this coming February

RIGHT.

- JWST will be near flight readiness by the end of 2020

RIGHT. The spacecraft is complete, launch set for OCT 2021.

- Rocketlab will launch from Wallops near the end of 2020 and will recover one rocket by end of year. 10-12 flights.

HALF RIGHT. No Wallops launch, but one rocket was recovered. 7 launches in 2020.

- 2-4 failed launches between Iran, China, and Russia. Crewed Soyuz missions will fly safely though.

HALF RIGHT. More than 4 failed launches, including maiden flights of US rockets. All Soyuz ISS missions flew successfully.

- Another TESS exoplanet find will have water vapor in the habitable zone, size of planet will be close to Earth

HALF RIGHT - TOI-700b announced in January, but no follow up yet. Yet.

- Rumors of the “L” word (past or present life) on Mars, Europa, or Enceladus will be widely bandied about in the astronomy/planetary science community by the time Thanksgiving/Christmas roll around next year.

WRONG. Nothing like that. Yet.

- Curiosity has a successful year of science

RIGHT

- InSight mole gets partially unstuck and able to drill down a few feet but no more. Newly discovered properties of Martian soil are confirmed as culprit of mole issues, which is a big discovery in itself

HALF RIGHT. The jury’s still out, but the mole did get unstuck and they’re working on compacting the soil.

- Osiris-Rex successfully collects a sample from Bennu after some initial problems

RIGHT. The only issue was that too much of the sample was collected and some of it leaked out so they had to forego an exact measurement.

- Hayabusa2 successfully returns its sample from Ryugu to Earth late next year

RIGHT.

- An exomoon is confirmed

WRONG. But I expect it to happen one of these days.

- Virgin Galactic FINALLY starts commercial flights just before Christmas next year.

WRONG. COVID plus the move to New Mexico postponed things.

- Blue Origin makes one or two New Shepard crewed test flights but does not yet start commercial service. First New Glenn pathfinder is rolled out late in the year and there will be more buzz about that from the company

HALF WRONG. No NS crewed flights, no NG pathfinder. But no commercial service, so that’s something.

- Virgin Orbit makes its first test launch after New Year’s and flies at least one operational flight before the end of 2020.

HALF RIGHT. VO did make a test launch but it failed. 2nd flight in early 2021.

- Stratolaunch sadly goes nowhere, the aircraft is acquired by the DoD for outsize transport work and research by DARPA

WRONG. Somehow it is still around as a potential space launcher, they’re trying again.

- Starlink initial operational capability by the end of the year for North America. Progress will be made toward easing concerns about orbital debris and effect on astronomy (new coatings on spacecraft, shorter orbital lifetimes, paring down of satellites needed, etc.)

HALF RIGHT. A new sunshade helped somewhat with the brightness issue, and there’s beta testing now, but no IOC yet.

- On a personal level, I’ll build and finish at least 2 space models and will make at least one launch trip.

HALF RIGHT. A great year on the model building front. But COVID scotched the launch trip. Planning for later in 2021 now.
-