Predictions 2020

[scienceguy]

It's that time of year again. What will happen in spaceflight next year?

Link to 2019 thread: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.0

Predictions for spaceflight 2020

Evidence of a nitrogen and carbon dioxide atmosphere found at an extrasolar planet

Starship Hopper hops twice, each time higher than before

SpaceX reaches orbit at least 6 times with Falcon 9 and one time with Falcon Heavy

SpaceX will start taking astronauts to the ISS

NASA’s Mars 2020 rover suffers some mishap, technical or political, that delays its launch till the next launch window

NASA’s Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 both keep transmitting

NASA’s Curiosity rover gets stuck somewhere, due to terrain or wheel failure. Engineers figure it out and the rover is soon mobile again.

ESA’s ExoMars rover launches without incident

Virgin Orbit/Galactic will start taking paying passengers into space

Blue Origin will do exactly the opposite of what I predict for them

Blue Origin will launch people into space before the end of the year

A large meteor will burn up over Canada. It will be caught on video

Elon Musk will get a NASA Spaceflight account, but not post much because of a barrage of questions

There will be some kind of technology breakthrough that will really help spaceflight

edit: adjusted prediction for Falcon Heavy number of launches

[Broken_Soap]

Alright here's my version

SpaceX

-Falcon 9 will fly roughly 20 times, 7 of which will be Starlink launches, with 2 of these launches being 4th reflights
-DM-2 will fly in April on an almost perfect mission
-Falcon Heavy will only fly once just before the end of the year
-Starship prototype Mk1 will fly it's 20 km test flight in January but it will have a major failiure of some kind
-Mk2 will fly a similar test flight in April and it will be succesful
-The Mk3 and Mk4 prototypes will finish construction in Q3/4 and they will start performing high altitude suborbital flight tests near the end of the year


-NASA

-Commercial crew will first fly crew with DM-2 in April and Starliner CFT will fly in June
-Mars 2020 will launch to Mars with no issues
-Artemis lunar landers will only get some of the money NASA requested for 2024 and NASA will be forced to downselect to only one contractor
-SLS CS-1 will perform the Green run hotfire test in April with no major issue and will ship to KSC in August with Artemis 1 rolling out to the pad for pre-flight testing just before the end of the year
-Artemis 1 Orion will return to KSC from Ohio in March and will be stacked on SLS in October
-ISS will keep operating in orbit as usual
-JWST will remain roughly on track for it's March 2021 launch
-OSIRIS-REx will succesfully collect a sample from asteroid Bennu
-InSight will not manage to get it's heat probe working

-ULA

-All Atlas and Delta flights will be succesful
-Vulcan will win NSSL funding as well as SpaceX but it will slip a little bit because of delays with the BE-4

-Blue Origin

-New Sheppard will finally fly people into space near June
-New Glenn will slip to early 2022 but there will be progress even though Blue Origin won't tell anyone about it
-New Glenn will not get an NSSL contract

China

-Long March 5 will return to flight in January and it will launch China's Mars rover in the summer
-Chang'e 5 will launch near the end of the year but it won't land until 2021
-In total there will be over 25 Chinese launches

-Russia

-There will be another Soyuz launch failiure
-Angara A5 will fly again in Q2
-Nauka will slip into 2021 but it will be finally be sent to the launch site by the end of the year

ESA/Arianespace

-ExoMars 2020 will have an uneventful launch to Mars
-Ariane 5 will have a partial failiure to inject a satelite to GTO but it will be able to compensate
-Vega will return to flight
-Vega C will fly for the first time but Ariane 6 will slip into early 2021

[niwax]

Let's see...

Falcon 9 will break 20 launches with at least 20 successes

Starship will achieve orbit before the end of Q3

Starship will land from orbit or at least successfully simulate a water landing

Both CC providers will fly meat but NASA will still be in a political mess over Soyuz seats

A Starlink product with pricing will be announced before the end of Q3

Select customers will have Starlink access

Elon Musk will present a future plan either at IAC or with Maezawa

Both BO and Virgin tourist offerings will get pushed to Q4 at the earliest

There will be at most one tourist flight and it will be explicitly presented as experimental

Vector or its former CEO will come back with something space related and just as dodgy

BO will announce another concept, either lander, rocket configuration or tourist product

SpaceX will fly a rideshare in H2

EELV2 contracts will be awarded with old vehicles expected to fly some missions

Vulcan development will continue on track

SLS won't

Starship will appear in an official NASA presentation

[Falcon H]

SpaceX

- The passenger variant of Starship will loose its giant window.
- At least one major design change will happen.
- The first flight of MK I will be in 2020.

Blue Origin

- There is a good chance that New Sheppard will be shelved.
- There will be a Blue Moon style unveiling of some New Armstrong models late 2020. No actual hardware will be seen. I am 100% certain that New Armstrong will be unveiled before the first New Glen flight.

NASA

- SLS will slip but survive. It is immortal.

Small Sat Stuff

- Firefly will not reach orbit.
- Virgin Orbit will reach orbit.

[cro-magnon gramps]

2 starlink flights will happen before Dec 31st 2019
4 minimum flights are required for coverage over the Northern US/Southern Canada. by March 2nd.
The ground stations along the Northern US border will be vetted and licensed by end of first quarter.
After testing the satellites, people in those areas will be offered Receivers/Transmitters at about 200 dollars US and a "plan" at competitive prices with Land Base ISP. 75-80 dollars US and 60-100 dollars for Canadians. Effective starting date for first plans: April 20th 2020 (4 20 20 20) He may announce it on a Joe Rogan Podcast, or with Tim Dodd

Star Ships Mk 3-4-5 and Super Heavy will launch multiple times, separately. Only at pad 39a will they launch together. This will be in the first 5 months, And Mk 6 will launch on a Super Heavy, in June - July, Super Heavy will land, and Star Ship will orbit at least 10 times and return. Again from Pad 39a. This is not because of Boca Chica Village. This will be because of the environmental habitats and the other pressures on the FAA.  Musk will keep his cool, but announce an alternative sometime in the 3rd quarter to be initiated in the first quarter of 2021.

At some time in the Summer Musk will announce a launch to GSO, with an accelerated return, to simulate a hot reentry to test the heat shield and EDL at 1/2 the speed of a Moon return... There may be some primitive experiments in orbital refueling prior to this... then a full up demonstration for the GSO launch.

The NASA Admin. will again be prodded into complaining about SS/SHB. Which reminds me, Crew Dragon will finally take crew to the ISS once in a demo mission, and once on an operational mission.

In his Fall presentation, Musk will unveil an interior shot of the Star Ship, that will take the first astronauts into space the following year. There will be either images or actual proto type vehicles from SpaceX for roving on Mars and the Moon. There will be more details of the first 2 ships to land on the Moon and Mars in 2022, what they will carry and the plans for what they will do. He may mention a Lunar Base, but only as a testing ground for Mars. It will be low key. He could be prodded into discussing the base's energy sources. But I'm certain the BIG reveal will come in 2021...

Starlink will make only enough of the launches to cover the populate centers, due to politics delaying the flights...

Musk will announce satellite vendors with contracts for the SS/SHB to fly in 2021. As well as a NASA mission to send a number of robotic probs, build by SpaceX in conjunction with NASA, out to the Kuiper Belt Objects, in 2026.

Early infrastructure development for ISRU production of Methane and Lox, will start to appear at Boca Chica and Pad 39a. Musk will announce that it will be in production the following year, and of course no one will believe him on any of this LOL... In fact everything I have written, if he announces it, will be called out, by the experts in the media. My point is, that as we get closer and closer to any mission or missions, with SS/SHB, or the implementation of Starlink, the pace of announcements has to pick up.

There will be more announcements of cross over innovations from his other companies to SpaceX infrastructure on Earth and in Space: Tesla A.I., Fully Autonomous Self Driving, Battery Storage and Solar Panels, Neuralink, The Boring Co.  This will fuel more speculation and rumors on his tweet this year, about Area 59...

[jebbo]

100+ orbital launch attempts worldwide.

SpaceX (edited post-mk1 "RUD")
-   >20 F9/FH launches
-   At least one booster achieves 5+ launches
-   At least one fairing half is reused for the 2nd time.
-   Starlink enters limited service (US only)
-   Starship manages a 20km belly-flop in Q4
-   No orbital Starship launches

Blue Origin
-   First crewed launch of New Shepard
-   Completion of LC-36
-   First New Glenn flight hardware seen
-   First hints of New Armstrong emerge (because of Artemis / lunar stuff)

Artemis / Lunar
-   Artemis 1 slips to 2021
-   Increased commercial involvement

Other US
-   Rocket Labs successfully catch a booster
-   LauncherOne first launch attempt

Europe
-   First Ariane 6 launch
-   Commit to a reusable ArianeNEXT (possibly in 2019 at Ministerial Council)

China
-   40+ launches
-   Long March 5B flights resume in Q1
-   Chang’e 5 launches successfully
-   More progress on reuse (no successful landing but boost-back/landing burns; legs fitted)

Other
-   Iran finally launch successfully

Science
-   I’m not making any detailed exoplanet predictions, but TESS discoveries continue and CHEOPS refines the mass/radius/density relationship
-   LIGO adds the Japanese Kagra instrument and detects at least 1 NS-NS merger with an EM counterpart

[Tobias_Corbett]

Ive never done one of these and I don't think my predictions will be very accurate but it seems like fun so I'll give it a go.

SpaceX
- Atleast two of the artists scheduled to fly on DearMoon are offcially confirmed and announced.
- SpaceX DM-2 flies with crew in Q1, USCV-1 flies Expedition 63/64 crew to station in June.
- First commercial payload to fly on SS/SH officially announced.
- Starships Mk1 and Mk2 fly suborbital hops.
- Starships Mk3 and Mk4 complete construction.
- First Super Heavy booster completes construction.
- Another private DearMoon like (but not DearMoon) SS/SH lunar flyby is booked for launch in 2024.

NASA
- NASA officaly secures atleast one payload on a future SS/SH flight.
- Rumours of NASA seriously considering Starship for future Lunar/Martian crewed missions start to circulate.
- Towards the end of the year the agency starts the early stages of selecting the 23rd Astronaut group.

CNSA
- Tianhe 1 successfully launches.
- Shenzhou 12 crew launches to the station, followed by Shenzhou 13 later in the year, both flying 30-60 day missions.
- Permanant habitation of Chinese Space Station starts Q4 2020 with the docking of Shenzhou 14
- Chang'e 5 launches on sample return mission to the Moon.

Rocketlab
- First launch from Wallops LC-2 successful.
- A location for LC-3 is selected.
- Progress towards booster recovery continues.
- First booster recovered Q4, followed by the first reflight in 2021.

Virgin Orbit/Galactic
- Virgin Orbit flies first commercial flight (For NASA's ELANA program).
- VSS Unity flies first commercial customers on spaceflight.
- Second SpaceShip Two is offcially named Q1 or 2 and begins flight testing in November or December.

India
- ISRO continues planning and development of Chandryaan 3, mission and spacecraft fundimentally changed and launch date moved up to 2021 following crash landing of Vikram.
- Chandryaan 4 begins to be planned, with a very similar mission plan to the current Chandryaan 3.

Other
- Boe-CFT flies in Q1 or 2, followed by USCV-2 in Dec 2020 to Feb 2021.
- New Sheapard flies crew for the first time, followed by paying passengers towards the end of the year or in 2021.
- One-three high profiles celebrities announce their intentions on securing flights to the ISS (or other stations) in the mid 2020s, several other wealthy people secure tickets aswell.

[ZachS09]

I'm changing things up for my prediction posts. For this year, I'm going to lay out a random number of different predictions for almost every nation's space program and their subsections. Here we go.


SPACEX

27 Falcon 9 rockets are flown; 10 of which are Starlink missions.

3 Falcon Heavy rockets will be flown; AFSPC-52 will be one of the FH missions. Also, on the very next FH mission (#4), the center core will FINALLY be recovered safely without tipping over.

The Inflight Abort Test mission is a complete success with all the tracking cameras capturing every moment of the abort.

The DM-2 mission with Behnken and Hurley is extended to six months and the astronauts are launched to the ISS somewhere between March and April.

At least two atmospheric tests of Starship Mk.1 are conducted before Mk.2 does the last test of the year.


NASA

NASA begins to reconsider the status of Artemis and mulls over the possibility of relying solely on SpaceX's SH/SS stack for interplanetary missions, realizing that the billions of dollars spent on the Space Shuttle hardware composing of Artemis are a waste.

The Mars 2020 rover is launched on time towards the Red Planet (July 17), but the RD-180 shuts down one second early, forcing the Centaur to burn longer; however, the planned speed is achieved and the launch is constituted as a success.

After seeing Boeing and SpaceX conduct their Orbital and Crewed Flight Tests, NASA declares that they will NOT buy more Soyuz seats as they feel confident about the Crew Dragon and Starliner.


ULA

10 missions are flown within 2020; two of them are Delta IV Heavys.

The SMART package concept is dropped, having seen Rocket Lab and SpaceX recover first stage boosters in their entirety (I mean, why only recover the engines?).

With extra performance available on the maiden Vulcan flight, which is launching the Peregrine lander, ULA decides to use a Cygnus spacecraft as a primary payload (as seen on an earlier launch profile video; except it was showing an Atlas V).


ARIANESPACE

Development of the Ariane 6 continues as planned.

Twelve missions will be flown; two are Vega-C, three are Vega, three are Soyuz, and the remaining four are Ariane 5. All are successful with no failures at all.


ISRO

Eleven missions are flown; seven are PSLV, two are GSLV Mk.2, and the remaining two are GSLV Mk.3. Only one PSLV is a partial failure.

ISRO announces the first astronauts to be flown on their Gaganyaan spacecraft.


ROCKET LAB

Twenty missions are flown successfully; eight of them fly from Wallops Island, and two of them involve the first stage boosters being recovered.


BOEING

The Orbital Flight Test is a success with the parachute sequence during landing performing as planned (all three chutes deploying).

The Crewed Flight Test is also successful with Mike Fincke commanding the next ISS expedition after three of the Soyuz members leave.


BLUE ORIGIN

Two New Shepard missions are flown with tourists onboard. On the second flight, one of the tourists vomits all over the place due to motion sickness. 

More details on New Armstrong are announced.

The first New Glenn is launched somewhere between November and December; the first stage booster fails to stick the landing.


RUSSIA

Four crewed ISS missions are flown using the new Soyuz-2 rocket.

Two Angara 5 missions and two Angara 1.2 rockets are launched. All of them are launched in secrecy; no live coverage.


CHINA

Three Long March 5s are launched successfully; one of them carries Chang'e 5 to the Moon.

Shenzhou 12 is launched somewhere in the second quarter.

Two ESA astronauts are selected to each fly on subsequent Shenzhou missions.

[AndrewRG10]

SpaceX:
-  Mk1 lifts off successfully but suffers a failure with the flip manouver causing in a hard landing and the vehicle falling over after engine shut down.
- JRTI arrives at Cape Canaveral and first mission is SAOCOM 1b
- MK2 makes successful first flight. Does a second flight to altitude above 50km.
- Super Heavy construction begins
- First smallsat rideshare in March sees very limited amount of customers
- SpaceX awarded 60% of NSSL2
- Fifth flight of booster in Q2 Other fifth flight and a sixth flight in H2.
- Starship Super Heavy reaches orbit in late 2020
- Starlink enters service for the USA and Canada
- SpaceX suffers no landing failures for the first time since 2017

ULA
- ULA win 40% of NSSL2
- Mars 2020 launches successfully
- Vulcan remains on track and Tory releases info and pictures of nearly completed Vulcan scheduled for 2021

Ariane Space
- Vega returns to flight
- Ariane 6 suffers partial failure on first flight
- Ariane Recieves funding to develop a reusable technology concept rocket by 2026

China
- Long March 5 return to flight
- Tiangon 3 first module is launched
- Long March 3B suffers failure
- Grid fins seen on 40% of flights with a engine re-ignition test
- Change 5 launches perfectly

Rocket Lab
- First launch from LC-2
- After two splashdowns of Electron in Early 2020 and one in late 2019, the first attempt to catch the booster is a success
- Photon makes flight debut

Virgin Group
- Non-tourist demonstration flight suffers engine failure and achieves 50km apogee, no one hurt
- Launcher one achieves orbit on first try
- Richard Branson announces first tourist flight with him onboard will happen in 6 months

Firefly
- First orbit attempt ends in failure following stage seperation
- Beta launch vehicle officially revealed
- Orbit attempt 2 is successful in December 2020

Blue Origin
- First tourists fly in July 2020
- New Glenn delayed to 2022
- New Armstrong announced
- Recieve contract to make lander for Artemis 3

Northrup Grumman
- Minotaur 4 suffers partial failure, no harm to NROL satellite
- OmegA has successful test fire, given a proper launch date
- Artemis Ascent stage revealed

Russia
- Angarra takes second flight in Early 2020
- Soyuz 2 suffers failure with OneWeb satellites
- Announcement and fullfunding for a return to Venus mission

India
- Dates announced for uncrewed flight of Gaganyaan. Manned Gaganyaan pushed to 2022
- GSLV MKIII suffers failure
- Vikram lander failure finally found in several pieces


NASA
- Insight fails to release heat probe
- Uncrewed Starliner in January
- DM-2 happens in April and spends a month in space
- Crewed flight in June
- Curiosity has half a wheel break, continues journey after 2 months of trouble shooting
- Juno's camera falls to the effects of radiation
- USCV-1 in August
- SLS Green run shut down early due to engine problem, recycle happens 2 months later
- Artemis 1 given mid 2021 launch date

Globally
- Nearly 200 Orbital launches
- Two dead satellites collide in LEO

[freddo411]

It's groundhog day for predictions.   So similar to last year:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1875586#msg1875586

18 right out of 22

* JWST does not launch in 2020

* SLS does not launch in 2020.

* Ariane does not field a reusable rocket. 

* ULA does not field a reusable rocket. 

* Blue Origin does not launch an orbital rocket in 2020.

* 48 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO.

* A Full scale Starship DOES launch to at least 20km in 2020.   * 12km, close, but no cigar on this one

* Falcon Heavy flies again *  not in 2020.

* Crew Dragon flies at least once

* Falcon 9 continues to fly more than Atlas V.  Falcon 9 reliability in 2020 is as perfect as Atlas V's.

* A reused F9 S1 will fly on it's fifth flight, and it's sixth flight.  Very happy to be right about this

* Starlink satellites #500 - ?? will reach orbit.   SX will demonstrate a limited, but functional Starlink service.  SX sets record for largest constellation, and becomes the largest operator of satellites in the world.  An ambitious prediction, but right on the mark

* SpaceX wins fewer Air Force contracts than it's competitors, despite their lower costs, and high demonstrated historic reliability, and existing launch hardware.  sadly correct on this

* Boeing flies a manned Starliner, it has problems (different than the MET timer and parachute connections), but NASA and Boeing put on smiles and call the mission a success. Nope, didn't even fly another unmanned SL.

* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 6 times

* Rocket lab has success in it's reusable first stage development program.   Recovers a booster.   Stretch prediction: it reflies a first stage.  except for the stretch prediction

* Another small sat launcher flies successfully to orbit  C'mon guys ...  (not counting Chinese military companies)

* A small sat launcher fails to achieve an attempted orbital flight .

* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem  Leaky ISS

* A European speaks out (again) against "subsidies" for SpaceX from the US government

* A European asks for (more) subsidies for Ariane from European states.

* Ariane launches 5 or fewer rockets ( not including VEGA or soyuz)

[high road]

- Smallsat launcher companies that didn't launch in 2019 see very limited action in 2020.
- Rocket lab continues to increase their launch rate.
- SpaceX doesn't bother enough with dedicated smallsat launches to put anyone at risk of going out of business. Not enough revenue for the extra effort.
- few space tourists are launched in 2020, if any at all.

- ULA continues to be the only company with a significantly reduced number of launches since the dawn of newspace. (Although I might include Arianespace if they don't get their missions planned for 2019 off the ground in the next two months). --> okay, including Arianespace now. Don't know how much of that is due to the Vega launch failure.

[woods170]

I predict that most predictions here will turn out to be wrong.

[Toast]

I predict that most predictions here will turn out to be wrong.

As is tradition.

My predictions:
-Artemis I gets another delay.
-Russia has at least two launch failures.
-No space tourism launches from Blue Origin or Virgin Galactic.
-SpaceX loses at least one Starship prototype to failure, but successfully reaches orbit by end of year.

[Eric Hedman]

My 2019 predictions weren’t as good as my 2018 predictions.  Most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.  So here goes:

NASA planetary program
        Mars 2020 launches as planned.

Space Tourism
        Blue Origin  (everything a year later than last year’s predictions)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
                Jeff Bezos Offers Elon Musk a ride – Musk passes on opportunity
        Virgin Galactic
                Richard Branson takes flight in Q2
                First tourist flight in Q3

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Demo 2 with crew on board flies by end of April
                One crew rotation flight by end of year
        CST-100
                Crewed test flight pushed to October and successful

SLS
        Production contracts SLS including EUS move forward
        Stays on schedule for 2021 launch

Orion
       Discuss with ESA possibility of bigger service module with greater Delta-V
       Will be ready for 2021 flight of Artemis 1

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record - One first stage gets to its fifth flight (finally in 2020)
        Two more Falcon Heavy launches
        Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
                Quiet discussions with NASA about possible alternative to SLS - specific Senator blows his top

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                First stage prototype built and fit checked on launch pad that is not done
                Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond
        New Moon Lander
                Team with Lockheed, NGIS and Draper gets NASA funding

ULA
        All launches successful
        Vulcan development continues on schedule 

Small Launchers
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2020)
        Rocket Lab
                Continues to grow (same prediction as last year)

Stratolauncher
        New owner moves forward with test flights of carrier aircraft
        Will remain very secretive about plans

Lunar landers
        NASA will fund initial development of both Blue Origin’s team and Boeing’s concept

ISS
        Commercial crew delivers astronauts on both Dragon & CST-100
        Outside of commercial crew little attention will be paid to ISS

Gateway
        PPE development on schedule
        Minimal habitation module moves forward on schedule
        ESA starts developing Esprit module
        Russia - talk but still no agreement to contribute
       
Artemis Program
        NASA gets budget estimate and timeline to Congress by end of May
               Includes concepts for lunar surface operations and initial habitat 
     
Mars
        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues still eyeing 2024 in space test
        Concepts for Mars missions using Nuclear Thermal in 2030s come out by year’s end
                Concept includes leaving from Gateway to Mars
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved from 2022 to 2024
       

I'm predicting another optimistic year with lots of positive activity

[Bubbinski]

Okay here goes.

- The world geopolitical situation remains tense but won’t go completely pear shaped this year like I’d been expecting, so no space warfare, no huge debris belts. Yet.
- NASA budget stays about the same, the impeachment drama sucks all the oxygen out of the air on Capitol Hill so to speak, leaving no room for big budgetary decisions. It’s an election year so no big cuts or increases. Fireworks with budget or world situation wait till 2021.
- First commercial lunar landers will be flight-ready by the end of 2020.
- SLS aces its green run and will be almost flight-ready by the end of 2020, but there will be whispers from the winning presidential team and Congress about cancelling the program or cutting it down to only a few flights due to escalating costs and increasingly viable alternatives
- Starship makes it to orbit atop Super Heavy a week or two before Christmas next year. A timetable will be announced for crewed flights.
- Elon will announce another paying human customer for Starship (like I’d expected this year).
- SpaceX Falcon 9 will fly 20 flights, all successful. Falcon Heavy will fly once.
- DM-2 will send Americans back to space from US soil this spring, and will “capture the flag”. Boeing CFT follows 2-3 months later. USCV rotation flights operational by end of 2020
- Mars 2020 and the UAE Hope mission will launch successfully to Mars. The ExoMars will be delayed to 2022 due to parachute issues and the Chinese will also need till 2022 to be ready to launch their orbiter/rover
- Solar Orbiter launches successfully this coming February
- JWST will be near flight readiness by the end of 2020
- Rocketlab will launch from Wallops near the end of 2020 and will recover one rocket by end of year. 10-12 flights.
- 2-4 failed launches between Iran, China, and Russia. Crewed Soyuz missions will fly safely though.
- Another TESS exoplanet find will have water vapor in the habitable zone, size of planet will be close to Earth
- Rumors of the “L” word (past or present life) on Mars, Europa, or Enceladus will be widely bandied about in the astronomy/planetary science community by the time Thanksgiving/Christmas roll around next year.
- Curiosity has a successful year of science
- InSight mole gets partially unstuck and able to drill down a few feet but no more. Newly discovered properties of Martian soil are confirmed as culprit of mole issues, which is a big discovery in itself
- Osiris-Rex successfully collects a sample from Bennu after some initial problems
- Hayabusa2 successfully returns its sample from Ryugu to Earth late next year
- An exomoon is confirmed
- Virgin Galactic FINALLY starts commercial flights just before Christmas next year.
- Blue Origin makes one or two New Shepard crewed test flights but does not yet start commercial service. First New Glenn pathfinder is rolled out late in the year and there will be more buzz about that from the company
- Virgin Orbit makes its first test launch after New Year’s and flies at least one operational flight before the end of 2020.
- Stratolaunch sadly goes nowhere, the aircraft is acquired by the DoD for outsize transport work and research by DARPA
- Starlink initial operational capability by the end of the year for North America. Progress will be made toward easing concerns about orbital debris and effect on astronomy (new coatings on spacecraft, shorter orbital lifetimes, paring down of satellites needed, etc.)
- On a personal level, I’ll build and finish at least 2 space models and will make at least one launch trip.
-

[Wargrim]

My prediction for 2020: The NASA Inspector General gets moved to a new position because he is doing his job too well and is too public about facts that nobody wants to hear.

[jebbo]

Edited my SpaceX predictions to seriously downgrade Starship progress (unstable design, unstable construction techniques, poor quality control ==> no orbital flight next year).

--- Tony

[woog]

Here are my predictions:
-SLS has a successful green run and is shipped to KSC by the end of the year, Orion is ready for stacking by Mid 2020 and Boosters will begin stacking Q1 2020
-JWST has some major milestones but stay on 2021 or have minor delays or a major delay if there's an "observation" or anything like that
-Commercial Crew will launch American astronauts from American soil, Crew Dragon will launch before Starliner
-HLS is Contracted to the Blue Origin National Team and maybe the SpaceX dragon derived lander (that or Boeing's proposal)
-Artemis Cadre of Astronauts is revealed by mid or late 2020
-Blue Origin begins major production progress on New Glenn and begins setting firm launch dates for New Glenn's Inaugural Flight.
-Starship MK3 is built but its role is reduced after SpaceX changes its mind on the design
-Mars 2020 launches (well duh)
-Orel Spacecraft begins production or gets delayed.
-NASA reveals Artemis Costs, Congress changes some of the numbers, gives NASA less money than it requests

[jadebenn]

I only have two predictions:

* Contract for 10+ SLS cores get inked
* Certain forum regulars continue to insist its cancellation is imminent

Needless to say, I'm pretty confident in these two.

[Prober]

2020 Land(s) of Confusion
Year of the Whistle-blower & Document Dump

 
External “Politics” effect internal forces in 2020 (worldwide).  Aerospace becomes highly affected by programs, and management calls in the past.  Decisions that were kicked down the road in the past, become “issues” in 2020.

 
Employee problems plague 2020 in most of the industry and NASA itself !

 

Much success in 2019 predictions
My 2019 hope: management would read it. Hope management were convinced to take a 2^nd look, and improve safety, and prevent loss of life events.

 
Space Force Signed into law

 
Revised: a Whistle-blower has just come forward after Space Force was signed into law. (hope I understood his claims??)
Claims:  The real Space Force was created in 1947.  Captured NAZI scientists were offered, and traded work on research for not prosecution for their crimes.
Claims: Wernher Von Braun helped setup NASA as a cover story.  The real Space Program Aka Secret Space Program (SSP) was kept hidden.
Claims: The Space Force signed into law brings “transparency” to the SSP that's been operating in the black since 1947.
Claims: His father worked under high level Agreements but disclosed the material to his son for future history.  Both parents have passed, agreements no longer in force.
Claims: His Father worked at Martin Marietta located in Cole Creek Canyon Colorado.

 
NASA
USA Artemis Return to the Moon program brings excitement to many programs around the world.
Many countries wish to be part of it.

 
Commercial Crew continues to disappoint.   Prior flight contracted schedules no longer seem viable with ISS 2024 schedule.  Cost overruns (purchase of Soyuz seats) become problematic.  Possible outcomes: Down-select &/or revise the program.  Open the program to others with research grants.

 
SpaceX
problems in the west, and other events plague Boca Chia.  Was this a good site choice?

 
Notables, and possible surprises


Russia's long term Space Program see's returns and major excitement in 2020

 
ISRO advancement and growth continues. Looking forward to some surprises in 2020.

 
Ukraine finds some Joy in 2020. Possible growth with a space program.  Team up with an unlikely partner  ?

 
China shows the world some surprises in 2020
 
Stock up on popcorn folks 2020 will be a ride

 

 

[Darkseraph]

General
- At least 150 launches worldwide
- 8 failures
- More NASA employees of the Apollo generation sadly pass away

NASA
- Successful launch of 2020 Rover
- SLS officially slips into 1st half 2021 but efforts are made to bring it back into 2020 for the
  election
- Bridenstine is forced by the budget to raid other bits of NASA for Artemis
- Boeing and SpaceX reach the spacestation by the middle of the year after mishaps
- Congressional pressure on the commercial program over mishaps and doubts raised about
  commercial launch being used for Artemis. Congress tries to resurrect sole use of SLS
- Plans for gateway are delayed but mature. New countries join artemis program
- NASA awards contracts for the manned landers for Artemis and heavy cargo
- Curiosity fails on Mars
- Major safety mishap on the ISS calls into question its future
- New companies emerge proposing orbital infrastructure for NASA (fuel depots,
- All other space science missions successfully continue
- Proposal to repair and upgrade Hubble on a manned mission using Starship
- Planet 9 discovered and it has one really surprising aspect
- ‘Planet 10’ search begins
- A unexpected chemical is found on Mars

Blue Origin / Amazon Kuiper
- The lower stage of New Glenn is revealed in photos nearly full assembled by the end of the
  year
- The notional architecture of New Armstrong is revealed
- Blue reveal plans for orbital stations based on the upper stage of New Glenn, propose it to
  NASA
- Also plans emerge for orbital refuelling with new glenn and depots and Blue Moon ‘Heavy’
- New Glenn slips into 2022 and loses the ‘EELV2’ contract
- New Shepard flies with people by the middle of the year
- Plans for surborbital tourism on New Glenn emerge with a notional capsule
- These plans include ‘free return’ loops around the Moon and LEO visits, by middle of decade
- The Kuiper constellation plans increase in size to 10k sats
- Blue and a few other companies will get contracts to launch the sats
- There will be something unique about the Kuiper constellation, the sats will be software driven
   reconfigurable and will perform some of the data processing rather than being just bent pipes.

SpaceX
- A new record for Falcon 9 launches with one failure
- First contract to deliver a sat with SS/SuperHeavy is signed
- At least 2 more customer for Falcon Heavy
- Recovery of fairings will be abandoned to spend more time and resources on Starship
- Starship will reach space by the end of the year but not orbit
- Construction will be well underway for Super Heavy by the middle of the year
- A fatality occurs during the construction of Starship. Puts the program under public scrutiny.
  Security and privacy of the building site ramp up and sadly bring an end to much of the great
  coverage we have seen so far from forum members and twitter.
- SpaceX expands on its lunar plans and sets out a tourism subsidiary offering rides to the ISS
   on Dragon 2, loops around the Moon and eventual landings.
- Lunar plans expand after winning a cargo delivery contract with Starship
- Manned Mars missions slip however, SpaceX proposes to NASA to use Starship for rover
  missions and sample return
- SpaceX collaborates with Tesla to produce a Mars rover to sell to NASA and for early
  exploration of mars landing sites
- SpaceX plans to very early on deliver modified Starlink sats to Mars orbit and sell
   communication and observation services to NASA
- The Boring Company reveals a concept for a Lunar/Mars TBM for habit construction
- One of the Starships under construction by end of year will be the ‘Chomper’ version
- A recession puts Elon Musk's companies under pressure

ESA/Europe
- Exomars has a failure due to the Russian descent module
- All other ESA missions successful
- Ariane 6 is successful but a pyrrhic victory. Soyuz and Vega get more contracts for
  constellations
- Initial tests for reusability begin
- There are calls to introduce competition into European launch market but also ban European
  sats on foreign launch vehicles as part of growing protectionism in the world
- More launch startups emerge in Europe
- With UK out of Europe after Brexit, there is a serious proposal to launch polar missions from
  Ireland via a ‘commercial spaceport’ that takes advantage of incredibly low corporate tax!
- Ariane 7 notional architecture emerges as a 5 metre core, with options for either solids or side
  cores. First stage reusable 10 times
- European budgets are recovering and concepts for a European Manned Capsule emerge
- There is a proposal for a ‘Ariane 6 Heavy’ for lunar missions that uses two extra solids for
   placing heavier payloads towards the Moon including manned/cargo landers
- UK doubles down on support for Skylon as part of a nationalistic PR exercize for Boris

Turkey
- Pursues are more independent and vigorous space launch program with bigger plans for
  its own launch vehicles
- Cooperates with Russia to develop new launch vehicles
- An agreement is reached to launch a Turkish astronaut to the ISS on Soyuz
- These developments of missile technology being transferred greatly worry America

China
- At least 35 launches
- China floats early concepts for space infrastructure or spaceports in Africa and
  flying payloads or people to the CSS
- First module of CSS slides into 2021 but the size of the station grows with proposals
  for other countries to add modules
- Many successful tests of reusability for China, more to prevent debris than anything
- The next Manned Space Capsule is officially tested
- Architecture for Long March 9 is reevaluated in the light of Starship
- China will fly sign on other nations astronauts and payloads on the CSS for soft power
- China tests a controversial hypersonic weapon
- Lunar sample return mission is a failure
- Mars mission is a partial failure

Russia
- Russia reveals new plans to test reusability, more to avoid landing debris than for economic
   reasons
- World economy is in recession but the price of oil will be gigantic because of a crisis in Middle
   East so Russia increases the budget for its Super Heavy lifter and brings forward the
   timetable for propaganda and strategic reasons
- Russia tests space weapons and hypersonics in increasing sabre rattling. Creates a ‘Space
  Force’
- Nauka delayed to early 2021
- With money drying up for crew launches and RD180, Russia tries to sell its wares elsewhere in
   the developing world, becoming a major proliferator of missile tech

Commercial
- At least new one venture is created to develop RLVs first rather than expendable
- Rocketlab launches 10 times and reveals plans for a bigger sequel to Electron (Muon!)
- Several microlaunch companies go bust before anything is orbit but even more start up
- There is one new startup for satellite servicing/propellant depots
- Altius signs on more customers
- John Carmack has some new involvement in the space industry as a side project
- Orbital debris events will increase and place new scrutiny on megaconstellations. It will be
   accused of being a ‘wild west’ in space
- Masten expands and reveals new plans wrt Moon
- Elon Musk/Gwynne Shotwell have some involvement with ‘Breakthrough Starshot”

Other Countries
- A South African microlaunch vehicle concept is revealed
- Iran launches 3 times and fails once
- Iran has bigger plans for launch vehicles
- Relations deteriorate with North Korea. It resurrects its space program
- North Korea tests a space weapon to the horror of the general world
- Multiple space weapon tests occur. Militarization of space is a hot topic this year
- More nations join the fold of countries that have reached orbit, either through national
   programs or domestic companies.

Bonus Prediction:

I'll be at 33% right in these predictions. Predictions are hard, usually wrong and what really turns out can be so surprising. Looking forward to 2020, it looks to be the start of an eventual age in space and hopefully a golden age.

[Eric Hedman]

General
- Planet 9 discovered and it has one really surprising aspect

The surprising aspect will be that it is named Pluto.  Some people will claim it was discovered in 1930.

[JEF_300]

Key

Subject
- Prediction
   - Prediction predicated on the above prediction
+ Especially bold and unlikely prediction


Where to start...

How about somewhere close to home? (for me anyway)


Firefly Aerospace
- Firefly Alpha flys before the end of the year
   - It's a successful flight
- We get a leaked render of the new Firefly Beta
   - It's glide-back

Virgin Orbit
- LauncherOne launches before the end of Q1

Rocket Lab
- Launch rate rises to 2 per month by years end
- Successfully get through "the Wall" by the end of Q3
- Attempt first helicopter catch in Q4

Boeing Space
- Next month, the engineers working on Starliner reccommend NASA and Boeing procceed to the Crew Flight Test
- CFT before the end of Q3
- Starliner flys with crew before Dragon
   - There are numerous claims of Boeing bias, when the reality is that Starliner is just the one that didn't explode
- The CEO change is good for Boeing, comparable to ULA changing over to Tory Bruno

SNC
- Continue making visible progress
+ Work with NASA on the first steps required in putting crew Dreamchaser on the CCP on-ramp

SpaceX
- Makes a lot of progress on all fronts in Q1
- Something blows up in Q2
   + The something is a Starlink Launch
- I can only have a prayer of predicting what will happen at SpaceX 6 months out
- Dragon flys with crew before the year ends
- All cargo Dragon flights go well
- Pad construction at Boca Chica finished this year
- F9 doesn't win the air force launcher competition
- Elon doesn't work himself to death... yet

Blue Origin
- People fly in New Shepard by the end of Q2
- We see New Glenn flight hardware by the end of Q3
- "Team America" wins the Artemis Lander contract
- New Glenn doesn't win the air force launcher competition
- Jeff Bezos takes alot of heat this year, laregly due to the election

ULA
- Vulcan wins the air force launcher competition
- All things Vulcan stay on track
- Tory Bruno continues being awesome

NGIS
- All Cygnus flights go well
- Cygnus wins the gateway reupply contract
+ Antares recieves a commercial mission
+ OmegA wins the air force launcher competition

NASA
- SLS green run goes well
- Artemis 1 stacking by end of the year
- Contracts to support the Artemis program continue to be signed
   - Lander contract signed before the end of Q3
- The money requested for Artemis in the 2021 fiscal year budget is incredibly hard to get from congress
- Mars 2020 lands successfully
- ISS has no major troubles
- JWST remains on track

Russia
- Proposes another heavy lift vehicle
- Soyuz flights proceed without issue

Japan
- H3 launches before the end of the year
   - Successfully
   + During the Olympics
+ Akira doesn't come true
- An agreement to resupply Gateway with HTV-X is made
   - Launched via H3 dual launch
   + MHI also announces an H3 Heavy for later lunar launches
      + SNC offers to launch crew Dreamchaser on the H3 Heavy giving Japan it's "own" manned spacefligt capability
      + H3 Heavy uses 8 SRBs rather than being tri-core
+ Please someone propose an SLS EUS powered by a vacuum optimized LE-9

ESA
- Ariane 6 doesn't launch this year

India
- Continues progressing rapidly towards manned spaceflight

Turkey
- Announces launch vehicle

General
- US life expectancy continues to decline
- US elects a new President
 + It's Andrew Yang
- Nationalism remains on the rise worldwide
- Cybertruck continues having problems
- Dutch Elon Musk makes significant, measurable progress in saving the oceans
- 2021 will be better

[jadebenn]

SpaceX
- F9 doesn't win the air force launcher competition

NGIS
+ OmegA wins the air force launcher competition

Wow. That's a bold one!

[Proponent]

I'll go bolder still:  ULA (Vulcan, with Atlas V as a partial back-up) and NGIS (OmegA) win the Phase 2 Air Force launch competition.  ULA gets the 60% share, NGIS the 40%.

[ZChris13]

I guess I'll throw my hat in the ring here.
by the forum architecture order:

SLS and Orion - Will continue to chug along, an immovable political object, despite all objections.
HSF Landers - It progresses. We learn enough to start actually making predictions before the year is out.

for SpaceX:
Starlink - SpaceX try to fill the calendar with launches, but keep getting delayed. Still launches way more satellites than would seem reasonable. We finally get some hints to how they're going to roll out service.
Fairings - They slowly improve at catching them, but they don't get it perfect before the end of the year.
Falcon Heavy - Still criminally underused, they still don't manage to recover a center core, either by lack of launch or AFSPC-52 expending the center core or accident.
Starship and Super Heavy - lots of stuff here to make predictions about
 - With any luck we'll see a prototype get thermal tiles and a launch to 20km+ and subsequent Super Heavy production, instead of an endless series of manufacturing tests/pathfinders. My guess: the next prototype takes shape in April sometime.
 - The Annual September Starship Update happens again.
 - The Pad 39A Starship Super Heavy launchstool is structurally complete and very impressive early in 2020 but doesn't get used until Q4, if at all. (this could be completely wrong if Roberts Rd pops out a Starship early, which I don't think will happen)

Commercial - exciting stuff!
Smallsats - None of the hopefuls that everybody's watching do much.
Rocket Lab - Continue their quest to launch more than once every other month. Reusability starts working for them, but doesn't help much reaching that goal (yet).
I don't have much to say about satellite constellations.
Commercial Crew - Both Starliner and Dragon 2 launch crew to the ISS. SpaceX get the flag. People are still salty that Dream Chaser didn't get picked.
Blue Origin - Continue to be secretive.

PS: Oh, I forgot to mention NSSL. ULA/NGIS.

[RocketLover0119]

Not as many predictions here, or as in depth, and is also USA specific, but here goes nothing:

SpaceX
-We see Crew Dragon hoist astros for the first time to the ISS in February/March
-4/5 Crewed launches in all, and no anomalies/aborts
-25-30 F9/FH launches
-At least 1 booster will fail to land
-Over half of launches will have a successful fairing catch (one or both)
-No launch/on pad failures
-Starlink becomes operational by Q3
-Starship Mk 3 serves as another “pathfinder”, hops no higher than 10 KM, occurs Q1
-Mk 4 hops 20KM + but fails landing/ belly first entry, occurs Q2
-Mk 5 succeeds hops and “sky diver” entry, retires with valuable data, occurs in Q3
-Mk 6 flies with first Super Heavy, misses orbit narrowly, Occurs in Q3
-Mk 7 flies with SH and achieves orbit/successful reentry, occurs in Q4

ULA
-Keeps it’s 100% success rate
-No more than 12 flights during the year
-Vulcan flies twice, both flawless, certified by USAF for flights
-S.M.A.R.T reuse works only once in a Vulcan flight during the year
-Launches crew to ISS in Q2, no more than 3 flights with crew to ISS during the year
(Rather bland considering how little was done this year in 2019 besides the Starliner launch)

Blue Origin
-Space Tourists launch on New Shepherd in Q2
-New Glenn launch pad completes construction in Q2
-Flight hardware for first New Glenn launch will start to arrive Q4
-More information given about supposed “New Armstrong” rocket

SLS Artemis 1 Mission
-Artemis 1 core has successful “green run” campaign at Stennis, ships to Cape in late Q2
-Orion succeeds all testing, ships to cape in Q2
-Other components arrive in Q2/Q3
-Stacking of the Artemis 1 mission begins in late Q3
-Full stack rolls to 39B in late Q4 for testing/WDR’s

[VDD1991]

Here is my laundry list of spaceflight predictions for 2020:

United States
1. SpaceX conducts 30 launches of Falcon 9 and 2 launches of Falcon Heavy
2. SpaceX beats Boeing in the race to make the US regain indigenous manned spaceflight for the first time since 2011
3. Maiden launch of LauncherOne
4. Maiden launch of Space Launch System

Russia
1. A partial Proton-M launch failure (caused by third stage anomaly and placing a telecom satellite into a lower than expected orbit) forces Roscosmos to reduce the number of remaining planned Proton-M launches to 7 by switching some payloads to the Angara rocket in order to save money for production of Angara.
2. About 20 Soyuz-2 launches and 3 Angara launches are conducted.

Third World
1. A joint space launch vehicle project between South Africa and Cuba using components of the cancelled apartheid-era RSA-3 rocket and spent rocket stages that landed in Cuban territorial waters after re-entering Earth's atmosphere sends a propaganda satellite into orbit, a rehearsal for a purely Cuban SLV project that could beat Brazil to the punch in the Latin American space race.
2. South Africa launches a satellite into orbit using a low-cost satellite launch vehicle similar to that of the Electron.

Private Spaceflight
1. Three manned spaceflights of Dragon 2 and Starliner
2. Rate of Electron launches increases

[rakaydos]

General
- Planet 9 discovered and it has one really surprising aspect

The surprising aspect will be that it is named Pluto.  Some people will claim it was discovered in 1930.

Ceres was discovered in 1801. Pluto was never the 9th anything, realisticly.

[Finn Mac Doreahn]

SpaceX

25 launches,no failures. Well,not total failures. A Starlink launch in June doesn’t make it to quite the correct orbit.
IFA on 14 January. Success.
DM2 in May,returns on 1 July. Success. USCV-1 flies in December.

Several Starship flights over the course of the year. Mk5 makes it to near space in August,spectacular belly landing at White Sands. By end of year Super Heavy has flown once and Starship is just about in orbit.

Falcon Heavy in late September or early October. Finally the center core makes it back to Port Canaveral.

[EDIT zubenelgenubi: No.]

Starliner and all that jazz
No OFT-2. CFT flies in August,is successful. Return to earth in October.
Flight contracts are issued for non-ISS Starliner missions.

NASA/ISS
Mars 2020 is formally named Curiosity II in April. Launch on 17 July,landing on 5 February 2021. The usual hiccup or two during cruise. Landing is successful.
Artemis lander contract is issued during summer. Flights out to Artemis 12 are planned.
SLS will perform the Green run hotfire test in May with no major issue and will ship to KSC in August with Artemis 1 rolling out to the pad for pre-flight testing just before the end of the year.
Artemis 1 Orion will return to KSC from Ohio in March and will be stacked on SLS in October.
Artemis 2 crew is announced at some point. There will be an international crew member. It will be Samantha Cristoforetti.
ISS keeps ticking along. Yawn.
JWST remains on track.
One Voyager dies,other survives to 2026.

Blue Origin
First crewed NS launch on 4 July. Bill Nelson is on it.
One more crewed launch before end of year.
New Glenn gets payload contracts,including 3 comm satellites. The option of launching from LC-39B or LC-41 is broached.

Construction of SLC-7 to handle VAFB launches begins.

ULA and ATK
All launches this year are successful.
ULA switches back to RD-180 after Tory Bruno has a brain fart and realizes that foreign cooperation is better.
Omega gets closer to flight,nabs first real contracts.
Vulcan first flies at beginning of ‘21. Don’t care (yet) about the outcome.

The Euros
One partial failure ala SES-14,but not as serious.
Exomars goes up without a hitch,landing is slightly dicey but works.
Ariane 6 happens in November. It gets more payload contracts,including Heracles,now projected to debut in 2025.
More science missions get approved. The Airbus Moon Cruiser does not.

Russia
3 Angara flights,12 Soyuz,5 Protons,no failures.
Nauka flies in October. Pirs is retained on orbit for a few months for materials degradation experiments.
Work on a Falcon 9 style Irtysh begins.
Putin starts mulling state-sponsored Electron equivalent.

China and Japan
41 launches.
Tianhe begins assembly.
The new space capsule flies in August,is named Longxing (Starry Dragon).
Chang’e 5 is a success.
So is the Mars rover.
A Venus balloon gets approved.

10 launches from Japan.
H3 debuts without fanfare.
MELOS is on target for 2022,MMX for 2024. A sample return mission gets approved for 2029.
HTV-X gets approved for Gateway. Launch will be on Falcon Heavy.

Everyone else
Virgin Orbit sells LauncherOne-based missile derivative idea to USAF after successful test flight.
28 Electron missions. Two failures. LC-1B and -2 debut. Lunar Scout flies by year’s end,from LC-2.
5 Firefly missions. The first is a partial failure.
North Korea collapses. The South buys up their space program.
India chugs along. One unmanned Gaganyaan test mission towards the end of the year. It lasts a week.

Not space
Elizabeth Warren becomes first woman POTUS.
I buy KSP.
For All Mankind is renewed out to Season 5.
After a triumphant debut,The Right Stuff is renewed out to Season 6. Space is finally relevant again.

[Kryten]

US
SS2 flies a few pathfinder passenger flights but isn't truly operational (I'll consider this false if they get more than four flights in or more than once a month)
NS crew flights take place in the second half of the year, no real paid passenger service
Astra reach orbit but not on the first attempt
Another Stealth Space company enters prominence
No more than two US lunar landers launch and no more than one successfully lands
Starliner and Crew Dragon first operational flights both have no more than minor issues
No Starliner OFT-2

China
None of the liquid-fueled private rockets makes orbit successfully by the end of the year
No failures on established launchers (those that have already flown before the start of the year)
Chang'e 5 completes it's mission successfully

Europe
Exomars 2020 becomes Exomars 2022
Ariane 6 slips to 2021

Russia
No complete failures

Others
DPRK shows off a larger engine or an engine cluster, but no SLV launches.
Egypt show off an orbital launcher concept


Overall
110-130 launches
5-8 complete failures (lots of maiden launches this year)
China>US>Russia launch totals (with electron not counting as US)
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year
VS-50 is tested successfully (really hoping for this one, those guys need a break...)

[Lar]

My predictions for 2020.. somewhat rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2020 predictions:
- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 15 flights, I guessed 24 in the poll)
- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (down from last year's prediction of 6 or less)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 90% in 2019 which was my prediction, let's try again)
- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered (more optimistic about recovery than 2019)
- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (revised from last year)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (revised from last year)
- CommsX constellation will see at least another 240 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission, that's only 4 dedicated, there are way more on the manifest)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Vegas boring completed but maybe not operational yet.
- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups
- Dragon 2 will launch with crew/passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year)
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last two years)
- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 60% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 4 fairing half will be reused successfully. (up from 40% and 1 reused fairing half)
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration
- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc)

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2020 (reversal of last year)
- Boeing will skate right into the first crewed test flight without having to repeat the uncrewed, through some skullduggery of some sort.
- NASA's tilt toward Boeing which was evident in 2019 becomes even more pronounced and Boeing will capture the flag even if it means delaying Dragon by months and months so they can win.

- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (fourpeat)
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (fourpeat)
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)

- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 3 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (last year was >5, this year is <4).
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of last year)
- By year end there will be an Electron recovery, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (new)

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year... cmon)
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (repeat of last year...)
- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed

- There will continue to be shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one startup in existence at the start of 2020 will exit by the end of 2020

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).

- NSF's new look will see some minor refinement but nothing as big as late 2019
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)

[Gliderflyer]

And with a few hours to spare...
Orbital
SpaceX:
-SpaceX flies Falcon 9 13 times
-No Falcon 9 will fly more than 5 times
-Falcon Heavy will fly twice
-Starship Mk1 MK3 “whichever one tries the belly flop first” will crash when it tries to flip from horizontal to vertical
-No Starship variant will pass the Karman line.
-The Starship design will have changed again by the obligatory 2020 update presentation

Blue Origin:
-More New Glenn hardware will be shown, but nothing resembling a complete stage
-No images of New Armstrong will be shown

Commercial Crew:
-Boeing captures the flag
-Only one crew mission for each company is flown
-Nobody dies

Smallsat:
-Rocketlab will find recovery harder than they expected, but will get a stage back before the end of the year
-Virgin Orbit will not fly before the end of February. The first launch will not reach orbit.
-Vector will stay dead
-Firefly’s first launch won’t make orbit
-Firefly goes out of business (again)

Artemis:
-SLS doesn't fly
-SpaceX will be selected for cargo, but not people
-“Blue and Crew” and Boeing are among the app H lander groups to be selected

Suborbital/misc:
-EXOS will finally solve their “up” problem and pass 100km
-New Shephard will fly three times, but not with people
-VSS Unity will never fly again.
-SpaceShipTwo #3 will make one glide flight.
-The XCOR test hardware (EZ Rocket doesn’t count) continues to sit in storage, with no public appearances.

[Targeteer]

In an interesting note tied to the start of the new year... Posted by me in the Expedition 61 thread

ISS is currently experiencing a communications disruption with MCC-H.  CAPCOM just called the crew indicating the ground is reconfiguring to a low data rate which means the crew only has Space-Ground 1 at their disposal.  MCC-H believes the problem is related to the GMT/new year roll over.  They think they understand the problem but believe it will take several hours to fix.  They told the crew the issue should be resolved when they wake up.

[Eric Hedman]

I want to add one prediction that no one has control over.  The star system KIC 9832227 about 1800 light years from here, which is a contact binary, will go red nova at the end of the year giving us a show for next Christmas.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022

[jongoff]

I think I skipped doing predictions last year, but here are a few for this year (not meant to be comprehensive):

SpaceX:
-Will have a solid year with somewhere between 20-25 flights of F9/FH, and no launch failures
-Will launch at least another 200-300 Starlink satellites, but nowhere near as many as currently projected
-Will get a Starship prototype above the von Karman line, but will not have SuperHeavy ready for an orbital attempt in 2020.
-Will successfully deliver a crew to the ISS

ULA:
-Will have another year without any launch failures
-Will still be on track for a 2021 debut of Vulcan, but the first launch may slip by up to 6 months, probably due to BE-4 delays.
-Will announce some major upgrades for Centaur V (possibly IVF-based)

Smallsat Launchers:
-Rocketlab will launch successfully at least 10x this year
-Rocketlab will successfully recover a first stage, and maybe even refire it, but won't have reflown one by the end of the year
-At least one other US smallsat launcher will make it to orbit this year (my guess is either Virgin, Astra, or Firefly)
-At least one other major US smallsat launcher company (who has raised more than $10M) will go under -- though this won't be the year of the big shakeout yet
-At least one other major US smallsat launcher company will announce a plan for first stage reuse

Megaconstellations:
-As mentioned above, SpaceX will launch at least another 200-300 Starlink satellites
-OneWeb will successfully launch at least 8 batches of satellites (a bit less than half their constellation), and will be getting into the one launch per month cadence they had been planning on.
-At least one more megaconstellation will be announced with >500 satellites
-At least one more megaconstellation will either be canceled, go dormant, or formally merge with one of their competitors

Satellite servicing:
-The NG MEV mission will successfully rendezvous and capture their client spacecraft, and begin life extension operations.
-The Astroscale ELSA-d mission will launch, and successfully complete at least part of its technology demonstration
-Altius will fly a bunch of DogTags and land at least one more major constellation customer for them (I'm biased).
-No major progress on space debris regulations will happen this year, thought he concern will continue to grow.
-There will be at least one major debris-related incident this year

SLS/Orion:
-SLS/Orion EM-1 first flight will slip by at least another 6 months compared to the current official date.
-EUS work will start, but will also be behind schedule

Artemis:
-NASA will award three integrated lander efforts -- the Blue/NG/LM national team will be one of the winners
-Gateway will continue progressing, but no new major gateway elements will be awarded in 2020
-NASA will continue to get insufficient funds to meet 2024, but won't formally announce a slip yet.
-No CLPS missions or private lunar missions will be launched in 2020.
-At least two additional CLPS missions will be awarded -- at least one to a bigger company (LM or Blue), and at least one to a smaller company (Masten, etc).

Commercial Crew/Cargo:
-Both Boeing and SpaceX will successfully deliver crew to the ISS this year, though at least one mission will have a serious close-call/anomaly.
-All CRS flights will be successful this year

I could probably go on, but that's enough predictions for now.

~Jon

[Oumuamua]

-Over 120 launches this year.
-China will again have more launches than the USA
-At least 5 new launcher families will attempt a first orbital launch.
-At least 6 orbital launch failures this year.
-one of SpaceX starship prototoypes will have a RUD/failed landing.
-There will be another debris generating event/collision in space, generating >100 trackable parts.
-Encouraged by the return of US manned spaceflight a major space project (commercial space station) will be announced with funding and with respected people/companies that support it (not just a powerpoint).
-SLS slips further by at least half a year

[moreno7798]

Lets do this...

1. Spaceship SN1 does not fly until late late Q1 or early to middle Q2
2. Boca Chica residents all settle with SpaceX and vacate BC by the end of 2020
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2020.
4. SpaceX has 1 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
5. SpaceX recovers 40% of all F9 launch fairing.
6. SpaceX achieves 23 successful launches in 2020.
7. FH's main core lands safely.
8. Starlink goes live for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2020.
9. Musk unveils Mars-Specific TBM hardware during his yearly SpaceX update.
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
11. Year 4 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
12. JWST is delayed again.
13. Mars 2020 Rover launches on time (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
14. There are no Alien signals detected coming out of the astronomy community.
15. A flat earther launches to space, sees the curvature of the earth, then claims he was seeing a simulation projected onto his retina from the sides of the ship's windows.

[jadebenn]

- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)

What's the point of making a prediction that is entirely subjective?

[Lar]

- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)

What's the point of making a prediction that is entirely subjective?

it's my prediction and it's not entirely subjective.

Did you want to nitpick the rest too? Not a good look.

[jadebenn]

it's my prediction and it's not entirely subjective.

Did you want to nitpick the rest too? Not a good look.

Uh, sorry? I was confused since it's not really something that's objectively provable, so you can't really say whether or not it was "right." But I'll drop it. It wasn't meant to be a snipe.

[cyberops27]

SpaceX:
-  Mk1 lifts off successfully but suffers a failure with the flip manouver causing in a hard landing and the vehicle falling over after engine shut down.
- JRTI arrives at Cape Canaveral and first mission is SAOCOM 1b
- MK2 makes successful first flight. Does a second flight to altitude above 50km.
- Super Heavy construction begins
- First smallsat rideshare in March sees very limited amount of customers
- SpaceX awarded 60% of NSSL2
- Fifth flight of booster in Q2 Other fifth flight and a sixth flight in H2.
- Starship Super Heavy reaches orbit in late 2020
- Starlink enters service for the USA and Canada
- SpaceX suffers no landing failures for the first time since 2017

ULA
- ULA win 40% of NSSL2
- Mars 2020 launches successfully
- Vulcan remains on track and Tory releases info and pictures of nearly completed Vulcan scheduled for 2021

Ariane Space
- Vega returns to flight
- Ariane 6 suffers partial failure on first flight
- Ariane Recieves funding to develop a reusable technology concept rocket by 2026

China
- Long March 5 return to flight
- Tiangon 3 first module is launched
- Long March 3B suffers failure
- Grid fins seen on 40% of flights with a engine re-ignition test
- Change 5 launches perfectly

Rocket Lab
- First launch from LC-2
- After two splashdowns of Electron in Early 2020 and one in late 2019, the first attempt to catch the booster is a success
- Photon makes flight debut

Virgin Group
- Non-tourist demonstration flight suffers engine failure and achieves 50km apogee, no one hurt
- Launcher one achieves orbit on first try
- Richard Branson announces first tourist flight with him onboard will happen in 6 months

Firefly
- First orbit attempt ends in failure following stage seperation
- Beta launch vehicle officially revealed
- Orbit attempt 2 is successful in December 2020

Blue Origin
- First tourists fly in July 2020
- New Glenn delayed to 2022
- New Armstrong announced
- Recieve contract to make lander for Artemis 3

Northrup Grumman
- Minotaur 4 suffers partial failure, no harm to NROL satellite
- OmegA has successful test fire, given a proper launch date
- Artemis Ascent stage revealed

Russia
- Angarra takes second flight in Early 2020
- Soyuz 2 suffers failure with OneWeb satellites
- Announcement and fullfunding for a return to Venus mission

India
- Dates announced for uncrewed flight of Gaganyaan. Manned Gaganyaan pushed to 2022
- GSLV MKIII suffers failure
- Vikram lander failure finally found in several pieces


NASA
- Insight fails to release heat probe
- Uncrewed Starliner in January
- DM-2 happens in April and spends a month in space
- Crewed flight in June
- Curiosity has half a wheel break, continues journey after 2 months of trouble shooting
- Juno's camera falls to the effects of radiation
- USCV-1 in August
- SLS Green run shut down early due to engine problem, recycle happens 2 months later
- Artemis 1 given mid 2021 launch date

Globally
- Nearly 200 Orbital launches
- Two dead satellites collide in LEO

[GWH]

NASA

Gateway Logistics Services:
- Awarded in February (2 months late!) to NGIS (Cygnus derivative) & SNC (their Comet module or whatever).
- Someone protests the decision.

Human Landing System:
- 3 awards to mature systems but funding shortfall requires heavy initial investment by contractors
- National Team (Blue and all) wins a spot, maybe even larger portion of funding.
- SpaceX wins a spot with Starship *Bonus prediction its actually a Dragon derived ascent vehicle and Starship descent to best fit requirements*
- Boeing and their SLS flown proposal wins a spot.
- With Boeing in the mix but underfunded, congress helicopter drops a load of cash into the program.

CLPS:
- Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are selected to fly some form of cargo to the lunar surface, VIPER flies on Blue Moon
- Masten finally gets a task order (Although I feel this is too optimistic).

Commercial crew:
- All is well with SpaceX
- Boeing test flight has a minor mishap where astronauts take manual control and complete the mission

SLS:
- 2 month delay over the length of the green run campaign.
- Software issues pop up posing additional delays.
- Early Summer 2021 looking likely for a launch date with daytime launch being a convenient reason to take political pressure off the software issue delays.
- EUS use for some Gateway element is mandated by congress even though its more likely to delay the project.


Launch Service Procurement
- ULA wins 40% (the most complicated and expensive missions)
- SpaceX wins 60%
- OmegA is shelved


Commercial Space
- Nanoracks continues to do awesome things
- Axiom Space announces tourists to fly to ISS after commercial crew test flights completed
- Bigelow announces something and cancels it before the end of the year, generally does nothing.
- Constellation flights like crazy
- Tugs are the big thing for small sat launchers to GEO and beyond with lots of new proposals and a few test flights
- Virgin Orbit and Firefly both get test flights into orbit
- After missing out on LSP Blue Origin publishes their pricing, trying to undercut the competition. This forces the hand of both ULA and Arianespace to publish their next gen vehicle pricing. SpaceX publishes reused pricing, including clarity on Falcon Heavy.  2020 is the year in which commercial competition really heats up.
- this begins to enter the conversation politically as SLS continues to plod along and next gen vehicles are really close to fruition. Nothing actually changes though.


ULA
- Other than a few scrubs have a great consistent year.
- Vulcan progresses well and 2021 launch date holds.
- Will win a commercial launch of stacked GEO sats to GTO.
- Promotion of direct to GEO capabilities with Vulcan for small to mid size GEO sats.
- ACES development is slow, cis-lunar 1000 doesn't get mentioned (thanks to Boeing) frustrated employees involved in these programs head over to Blue Origin.


Blue Origin
- Along with pricing on New Glenn they publish updated performance numbers showing removed margins, therefore higher performance figures.
- Aggressive pricing and dual launch capabilities see them cut into Arianespace's market share significantly.
- Springtime launch of crewed test flight on New Sheppard, 1st customer flight late 2020.
- 3rd stage for New Glenn with refueling and long duration capabilities is teased, possibility of flying Orion on New Glenn emerges. 3rd stage is proposed commercially for direct to GEO flights of multiple small GEO sats.
- To support development of the 3rd stage Blue Origin poaches staff heavily from ULA.
- No other mention of new hardware like New Armstrong or a crew capsule.


SpaceX
- Lots of starlink, lots of flights
- 5th flight of a core happens
- FH flies once, great success, 3x landing (if margin is available)
- After winning LSP they move forward on the mobile gantry and longer fairing for Falcon Heavy, allowing them to offer dual launch missions to GTO like Ariane 5. These are priced very aggressively and win a few customers.
- Successful 20km hop of Starship SN1 in summer, Fall flight somewhere higher.
- A series of changes and the lack of TPS on Starship SN1 make it ineligible for high energy test flights. SN2 begins construction scheduled for sub-orbital test flight in early 2021.
- Minimum Viable Super Heavy for testing is well under way in construction. Should be ready for orbital test of SN2 in summer 2021.


ESA & Arianspace
- ESA waffles on Gateway plans and surface missions, proposing ideas with timelines far off on the horizon.
- Ariane 6 doesn't fly in 2020, delayed to "early" 2021
- As Ariane loses market share long term viability of Ariane 6 called into question.

[Toast]

It was always going to be one of to be one of the safer predictions, but credit to niwax, FalconH, jebbo, AndrewRG10, freddo411, Darkseraph, Lar, Gliderflyer (and myself) for calling it: looks like SLS's maiden launch is being delayed.
https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/1214221879193612289

Sources report that the EM-1
@NASA_SLS
 launch is being delayed From Nov 2020 to TDB because EM-1 personnel are being shifted from EM-1 safety/software to EM-2 because EM-2 requires more people to do human rating (more complex than EM-1 which is not human-rated) #Artemis #Moon2024

zubenelgenubi: Please remember to remove the "?s=XX" characters from the end of a Tweet hyperlink.

[GWH]

It was always going to be one of to be one of the safer predictions, but credit to...

NASA
SLS:
- Software issues pop up posing additional delays.

I swear, despite my edit being dated after that tweet came up my prediction was made first 

Woooo 1 prediction nailed within hours of making it! 

[jadebenn]

It was always going to be one of to be one of the safer predictions, but credit to niwax, FalconH, jebbo, AndrewRG10, freddo411, Darkseraph, Lar, Gliderflyer (and myself) for calling it: looks like SLS's maiden launch is being delayed.
https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/1214221879193612289

Sources report that the EM-1
@NASA_SLS
 launch is being delayed From Nov 2020 to TDB because EM-1 personnel are being shifted from EM-1 safety/software to EM-2 because EM-2 requires more people to do human rating (more complex than EM-1 which is not human-rated) #Artemis #Moon2024

zubenelgenubi: Please remember to remove the "?s=XX" characters from the end of a Tweet hyperlink.

I'd take anything NASAWatch says with a grain of salt, though I suppose even a broken clock is right once a day.

I wonder why he still calls them "EM-1" and "EM-2?"  It reminds me of that brief stint where he called SLS Block 1 "Block 1A."

[IanThePineapple]

My predictions:

NASA

- SLS stays in mid-2021
- Green Run goes well with a few small delays, but no major problems
- Shipped to KSC in Q4 and preps for integration begin
- Gateway PPM assembly starts, resupply contracts awarded to NGIS and possibly others.
- Mars 2020 launch goes well
- InSight mole doesn't make it all the way down, work continues
- New Horizons team starts the selection process for the third flyby target, ETA 2022
- Osiris-Rex successfully snags a sample
- Juno continues to return troves of data and images

SpaceX (I was way off with last year, let's see how poorly I do here )

- 35 Falcon 9 launches (17 customers, 18 Starlinks)
- 1 FH, late Q4. Core stage lands and is brought back intact
- DM-2 launches in May, a great success
- Crew-1 flies in late Q3 with payloads in trunk, Crew-2 pushed to Q2 2021
- Mk3/SN1 first flies in mid May after extensive tank & static fire tests
- Mk3 reaches space in Q4 after 2 low- & medium-altitude tests (20km, 50km).
- Mk2 is scrapped in late Q1
- Cape Starship is shelved until Q3, when work slowly resumes at Roberts Road.
- SN2 or 3 starts construction at Roberts Road (one in Florida, other at Boca)
- Parts of first Super Heavy begin to be built in Boca in Q4, but it isn't close to finished by year's end
- SN2 or 3 starts assembly in Boca Chica in Q4. Will be the first orbital ship, and fly on Super Heavy SN1
- Starlink launches ramp quickly, more details revealed, but no specifics. Revealed to go public mid next year.
- Starship gets first external launch contract
- At least 2 F9 landings fail
- Fairing recovery successes increase throughout the year, first successful double-catch in late Q1
- Fairing reuse becomes more common on Starlink flights, with at least one reflight on a non-Starlink mission by year's end
- Uncrewed Lunar Starship landing set for late 2023, crewed in late 2024
- Mars flights pushed back to next transfer windows (2024 uncrewed & 2027 crewed)

General

- SpaceX and ULA win the DoD contract competition, with SpaceX getting 60% and ULA getting 40%
- Boeing CFT launches in June. Successful flight, no major issues
- Boeing Crew-1 pushed to early 2021 (No big deal since CFT is a full crew rotation mission)
- Vulcan gets more customers, first flight stage is completed
- New Glenn stage prototypes finished by year-end
- New Shepard flies crew in Q3 or Q4, customer flights pushed well into next year
- Virgin Galactic continues test flights
- Rocket Lab launches from LC-2 in late Q2, and opens LC-1B in Q4. Recovers an Electron stage from the ocean.
- Electron launch ramp continues, LC-2 helps.
- Firefly launches in early Q3 from Vandenberg
- Omega gets one or two contracts, but doesn't pick up steam. Antares starts to look more and more like a one-off rocket.
- Wallops starts getting busier, passes Vandenberg to become the second-busiest US spaceport
- Cape orbital launches begin, Vandenberg's future is uncertain

Phew, this will be a really good year.

[JEF_300]

It was always going to be one of to be one of the safer predictions, but credit to niwax, FalconH, jebbo, AndrewRG10, freddo411, Darkseraph, Lar, Gliderflyer (and myself) for calling it: looks like SLS's maiden launch is being delayed.
https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/1214221879193612289

Sources report that the EM-1
@NASA_SLS
 launch is being delayed From Nov 2020 to TDB because EM-1 personnel are being shifted from EM-1 safety/software to EM-2 because EM-2 requires more people to do human rating (more complex than EM-1 which is not human-rated) #Artemis #Moon2024

zubenelgenubi: Please remember to remove the "?s=XX" characters from the end of a Tweet hyperlink.

I honestly didn't realize it wasn't already delayed back to 2021, so I didn't even address it. And now my assumptions have cost me a free prediction.

[moreno7798]

It was always going to be one of to be one of the safer predictions, but credit to niwax, FalconH, jebbo, AndrewRG10, freddo411, Darkseraph, Lar, Gliderflyer (and myself) for calling it: looks like SLS's maiden launch is being delayed.
https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/1214221879193612289

Sources report that the EM-1
@NASA_SLS
 launch is being delayed From Nov 2020 to TDB because EM-1 personnel are being shifted from EM-1 safety/software to EM-2 because EM-2 requires more people to do human rating (more complex than EM-1 which is not human-rated) #Artemis #Moon2024

zubenelgenubi: Please remember to remove the "?s=XX" characters from the end of a Tweet hyperlink.

I'd take anything NASAWatch says with a grain of salt, though I suppose even a broken clock is right once a day.

I wonder why he still calls them "EM-1" and "EM-2?"  It reminds me of that brief stint where he called SLS Block 1 "Block 1A."

Well, time is really more of an illusion. The only thing that the brain can experience is every moment in the present, which it then stores as memories, which the brain then interprets as the past - the illusion of time. The illusion of aging is nothing more than the change of matter from one state to another. The future is already there. We just haven't experienced it yet. The past present and future are already written.

Botton line is...

"A broken clock as well as a working clock" are both always right and because future states are already written, I predict SLS is already cancelled. We just haven't experienced it yet.

[Eric Hedman]

I predict SLS is already cancelled. We just haven't experienced it yet.

That's true about every product ever designed.  Everything becomes either obsolete or fails to perform and gets canceled.  It's up to history to decide if the time from start to cancellation is successful or not.

[scienceguy]

NASA’s Mars 2020 rover suffers some mishap, technical or political, that delays its launch till the next launch window

I was glad to be wrong about that one

[Eric Hedman]

My 2019 predictions weren’t as good as my 2018 predictions.  Most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.  So here goes:

NASA planetary program
        Mars 2020 launches as planned.

Space Tourism
        Blue Origin  (everything a year later than last year’s predictions)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
                Jeff Bezos Offers Elon Musk a ride – Musk passes on opportunity
        Virgin Galactic
                Richard Branson takes flight in Q2
                First tourist flight in Q3

I got my first prediction for 2020 right.  WooHoo!!

Once again too optimistic on Space Tourism.

 Too early to tell on the rest of my predictions.

[RocketLover0119]

Not as many predictions here, or as in depth, and is also USA specific, but here goes nothing:

SpaceX
-We see Crew Dragon hoist astros for the first time to the ISS in February/March
-4/5 Crewed launches in all, and no anomalies/aborts
-25-30 F9/FH launches
-At least 1 booster will fail to land
-Over half of launches will have a successful fairing catch (one or both)
-No launch/on pad failures
-Starlink becomes operational by Q3
-Starship Mk 3 serves as another “pathfinder”, hops no higher than 10 KM, occurs Q1
-Mk 4 hops 20KM + but fails landing/ belly first entry, occurs Q2
-Mk 5 succeeds hops and “sky diver” entry, retires with valuable data, occurs in Q3
-Mk 6 flies with first Super Heavy, misses orbit narrowly, Occurs in Q3
-Mk 7 flies with SH and achieves orbit/successful reentry, occurs in Q4

ULA
-Keeps it’s 100% success rate
-No more than 12 flights during the year
-Vulcan flies twice, both flawless, certified by USAF for flights
-S.M.A.R.T reuse works only once in a Vulcan flight during the year
-Launches crew to ISS in Q2, no more than 3 flights with crew to ISS during the year
(Rather bland considering how little was done this year in 2019 besides the Starliner launch)

Blue Origin
-Space Tourists launch on New Shepherd in Q2
-New Glenn launch pad completes construction in Q2
-Flight hardware for first New Glenn launch will start to arrive Q4
-More information given about supposed “New Armstrong” rocket

SLS Artemis 1 Mission
-Artemis 1 core has successful “green run” campaign at Stennis, ships to Cape in late Q2
-Orion succeeds all testing, ships to cape in Q2
-Other components arrive in Q2/Q3
-Stacking of the Artemis 1 mission begins in late Q3
-Full stack rolls to 39B in late Q4 for testing/WDR’s

Certainly is fun to come back to predictions! I was way to optimistic for starship it seems. Wrong on crewed flight end, was a gutsy prediction to begin with. Can’t believe I thought Vulcan would fly. Awaiting final WDR/firing of Artemis core, still think it will succeed. Obviously blows keep coming for first SLS flight date. Blue origin is much more silent than I predicted for the year. Starlink still yet to be operational.

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>

Certainly is fun to come back to predictions! I was way to optimistic for starship it seems. Wrong on crewed flight end, was a gutsy prediction to begin with. Can’t believe I thought Vulcan would fly. Awaiting final WDR/firing of Artemis core, still think it will succeed. Obviously blows keep coming for first SLS flight date. Blue origin is much more silent than I predicted for the year. Starlink still yet to be operational.

Obviously everyone's 2020 predictions got stomped on by the COVID-19 situation.

[hektor]

One prediction was pessimistic : -Orion succeeds all testing, ships to cape in Q2

It shipped in Q1 (March 26)

[scienceguy]

Well others are checking their predictions so I may as well too

Evidence of a nitrogen and carbon dioxide atmosphere found at an extrasolar planet

Nope. This didn't happen so far.

Starship Hopper hops twice, each time higher than before

Yes, something did hop twice but the name as changed. 0.5 point.

SpaceX reaches orbit at least 6 times with Falcon 9 and one time with Falcon Heavy

Yes, this happened and probably will happen. 2 points.

SpaceX will start taking astronauts to the ISS

Yes, this happened. 1 point.

NASA’s Mars 2020 rover suffers some mishap, technical or political, that delays its launch till the next launch window

Thankfully this didn't happen. 0 points.

NASA’s Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 both keep transmitting

As far as I know they are still transmitting. 1 point.

NASA’s Curiosity rover gets stuck somewhere, due to terrain or wheel failure. Engineers figure it out and the rover is soon mobile again.

This did not happen. 0 points.

ESA’s ExoMars rover launches without incident

This was delayed till 2022, if I'm not mistaken. 0 points.

Virgin Orbit/Galactic will start taking paying passengers into space

Again this was delayed. 0 points.

Blue Origin will do exactly the opposite of what I predict for them

Blue Origin will launch people into space before the end of the year

Blue Origin did not launch people into space therefore they did the exact opposite of what I predicted for them. 1 point.

A large meteor will burn up over Canada. It will be caught on video

Nope. 0 points.

Elon Musk will get a NASA Spaceflight account, but not post much because of a barrage of questions

Nope. 0 points.

There will be some kind of technology breakthrough that will really help spaceflight

This could still happen. 1 point for future prospects.

Well 6.5 out of 13. It's a pass, but I did better last year.

[scienceguy]

A large meteor will burn up over Canada. It will be caught on video

apparently this happened!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5214786

I get one more point!

[Stan-1967]

Blue Origin will do exactly the opposite of what I predict for them

Blue Origin will launch people into space before the end of the year

Blue Origin did not launch people into space therefore they did the exact opposite of what I predicted for them. 1 point.

I think you get 2 points for that one? Bold prediction I must say...

[jebbo]

100+ orbital launch attempts worldwide.

100th attempt happened today. 1 point.

I'll have to be more aggressive on this for 2021. 100 is now looking too easy :-)

SpaceX (edited post-mk1 "RUD")
-   >20 F9/FH launches

Already at 23. 1 point

Again, more aggresive for 2021. Too easy.

-   At least one booster achieves 5+ launches

Yup. 1 at 5, 1 at 6 and 1 at 7. 1 point.

-   At least one fairing half is reused for the 2nd time.

Yup. 1 point

-   Starlink enters limited service (US only)

I think beta counts, so 1 point.

-   Starship manages a 20km belly-flop in Q4

Looks like this will only be 15km, so 0 points.

-   No orbital Starship launches

Yup. 1 point

But I think I'll predict they do in 2021.

Blue Origin
-   First crewed launch of New Shepard

No. 0 points.

-   Completion of LC-36

I think this is complete enough to partially count. 0.5 points

-   First New Glenn flight hardware seen
-   First hints of New Armstrong emerge (because of Artemis / lunar stuff)

Nope on both. 0 points.

Overall, Blue Origin have disappointed me; I expected at least visible pogress with New Shepard.

Artemis / Lunar
-   Artemis 1 slips to 2021
-   Increased commercial involvement

Yup. Currently Nov 2021 and likely to slip to 2022. 1 point
2nd one is not measurable, so 0 points.

Other US
-   Rocket Labs successfully catch a booster

Nope. 0 points.

-   LauncherOne first launch attempt

Yup. 1 point.

Shame it was a failure though.

Europe
-   First Ariane 6 launch

Nope. 0 points

-   Commit to a reusable ArianeNEXT (possibly in 2019 at Ministerial Council)

Yup. 1 point.

China
-   40+ launches

Unless they have an end of year surge, no (projecting 38 launches). 0 points.

-   Long March 5B flights resume in Q1

Yes. 1 point.

-   Chang’e 5 launches successfully

Yes. 1 point.

-   More progress on reuse (no successful landing but boost-back/landing burns; legs fitted)

Unmeasurable. 0 points.

Other
-   Iran finally launch successfully

Yes. Successful launch in April. 1 point.

Science
-   I’m not making any detailed exoplanet predictions, but TESS discoveries continue and CHEOPS refines the mass/radius/density relationship

Unmeasurable. 0 points.

-   LIGO adds the Japanese Kagra instrument and detects at least 1 NS-NS merger with an EM counterpart

Nope. 0 points.

Overall 12.5 out of 24.

--- Tony

[hektor]

-   Commit to a reusable ArianeNEXT (possibly in 2019 at Ministerial Council)

Depends what you call commit. There is certainly no commitment in Europe for a FSD of ArianeNEXT yet.

[Proponent]

A large meteor will burn up over Canada. It will be caught on video

apparently this happened!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.5214786

I get one more point!

A bold bolide prediction.

[Eric Hedman]

My 2019 predictions weren’t as good as my 2018 predictions.  Most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.  So here goes:

Deja Vu all over again.
My 2020 predictions weren’t as good as my 2019 predictions.  Most of my misses were from being too optimistic on timelines for things to happen.

NASA planetary program
        Mars 2020 launches as planned.

The one I got right early.

Space Tourism
        Blue Origin  (everything a year later than last year’s predictions)
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
                Jeff Bezos Offers Elon Musk a ride – Musk passes on opportunity
        Virgin Galactic
                Richard Branson takes flight in Q2
                First tourist flight in Q3

Always next year.

Space Tourism

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Demo 2 with crew on board flies by end of April
                One crew rotation flight by end of year
        CST-100
                Crewed test flight pushed to October and successful

A year Boeing would like to forget.

SLS
        Production contracts SLS including EUS move forward
        Stays on schedule for 2021 launch

Maybe, but looking doubtful.

Orion
       Discuss with ESA possibility of bigger service module with greater Delta-V
       Will be ready for 2021 flight of Artemis 1

Not that I''ve heard of.

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record - One first stage gets to its fifth flight (finally in 2020)
        Two more Falcon Heavy launches
        Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
                Quiet discussions with NASA about possible alternative to SLS - specific Senator blows his top

Not too far off.  Starship is moving a little faster than I expected

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                First stage prototype built and fit checked on launch pad that is not done
                Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable for Moon and beyond

I was too optimistic on this.

        New Moon Lander
                Team with Lockheed, NGIS and Draper gets NASA funding

Got this one right.

ULA
        All launches successful
        Vulcan development continues on schedule 

Got this one right.

Small Launchers
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches (prediction will finally happen in 2020)

Too optimistic.

        Rocket Lab
                Continues to grow (same prediction as last year)

Got this one right.

Stratolauncher
        New owner moves forward with test flights of carrier aircraft
        Will remain very secretive about plans

They are not as secretive as I thought.  But they are pretty much doing what I suspected they would.

Lunar landers
        NASA will fund initial development of both Blue Origin’s team and Boeing’s concept

Half right.  The bad year continues for Boeing

ISS
        Commercial crew delivers astronauts on both Dragon & CST-100
        Outside of commercial crew little attention will be paid to ISS

Half right.  The bad year continues for Boeing

Gateway
        PPE development on schedule
        Minimal habitation module moves forward on schedule
        ESA starts developing Esprit module
        Russia - talk but still no agreement to contribute

Did not see the combining of PPE and the habitation module coming.  Right about Russia not agreeing to join.

Artemis Program
        NASA gets budget estimate and timeline to Congress by end of May
               Includes concepts for lunar surface operations and initial habitat 

Meh.

Mars
        Development of Nuclear Thermal engine continues still eyeing 2024 in space test
        Concepts for Mars missions using Nuclear Thermal in 2030s come out by year’s end
                Concept includes leaving from Gateway to Mars
        SpaceX’s plan to send cargo version of Starship gets moved from 2022 to 2024

Right on NTR development.  Did not see any updates on using NTR to go to Mars.  While nothing announced about Starship to Mars moving from 2022 to 2024, I still think 2022 is not going to be possible.

I'm predicting another optimistic year with lots of positive activity

It was a good year for many things (not counting Covid-19 including my battle with it.).  I'm going to trim my optimism a little for 2021.

[Toast]

I predict that most predictions here will turn out to be wrong.

As is tradition.

My predictions:
-Artemis I gets another delay.
-Russia has at least two launch failures.
-No space tourism launches from Blue Origin or Virgin Galactic.
-SpaceX loses at least one Starship prototype to failure, but successfully reaches orbit by end of year.

Well,
-Artemis was delayed again
-Russia has had no launch failures
-There weren't any space tourism launches
-SpaceX did lose a Starship prototype, but won't be reaching orbit this year

2.5 out of 4.

[moreno7798]

Lets do this...

1. Spaceship SN1 does not fly until late late Q1 or early to middle Q2
2. Boca Chica residents all settle with SpaceX and vacate BC by the end of 2020
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2020.
4. SpaceX has 1 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
5. SpaceX recovers 40% of all F9 launch fairing.
6. SpaceX achieves 23 successful launches in 2020.
7. FH's main core lands safely.
8. Starlink goes live for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2020.
9. Musk unveils Mars-Specific TBM hardware during his yearly SpaceX update.
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
11. Year 4 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
12. JWST is delayed again.
13. Mars 2020 Rover launches on time (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
14. There are no Alien signals detected coming out of the astronomy community.
15. A flat earther launches to space, sees the curvature of the earth, then claims he was seeing a simulation projected onto his retina from the sides of the ship's windows.

OK. Let's see how I did:


1. Spaceship SN1 does not fly until late late Q1 or early to middle Q2
-I was on track to fairly accurate fly date but of course it RUD Feb. 28 (.5)
2. Boca Chica residents all settle with SpaceX and vacate BC by the end of 2020
-Nope. Many are still there. (0)
3. Virgin Galactic has a few more (perhaps manned) test flights but neither Branson nor paying customers go to space in 2020.
-I will call this one correct. A few test flights but no paying humans nor Branson on board. (1)
4. SpaceX has 1 loss of Starlink satellites due to launch failure or orbit insertion failure.
-All successes to this point. (0)
5. SpaceX recovers 40% of all F9 launch fairing.
-SpaceX recovered 17 fairings from sea or vessel out of 26 F9 launches. well over 40% (1)
6. SpaceX achieves 23 successful launches in 2020.
-26 in 2020. (1)
7. FH's main core lands safely.
-No launch in 2020. FH is basically dead with Starship rapid development taking center stage and now being SpaceX's priority. Maybe a few FH launches in the next two years. (0)
8. Starlink goes live for paying customers in Q3-Q4 2020.
-In BETA for selected customers (.5)
9. Musk unveils Mars-Specific TBM hardware during his yearly SpaceX update.
-Musk did mentioned in a tweet that specialized TBM hardware would be needed to launch on SS but nothing specific. (0)
10. Musk gives more details about the pressurized version of the Cybertruck for Mars during his yearly SpaceX update.
-Nothing yet. (0)
11. Year 4 - SLS continues its slow death (more delays, more funding cuts).
-Yes. We all still wonder if this thing will survive a Biden administration. (1)
12. JWST is delayed again.
-Yep. It's been consistently delayed since its inception in 2007. (1)
13. Mars 2020 Rover launches on time (Robotic and Deep Space - the one thing that NASA knows how to do well).
-Yep. Launch in the year it was intended. (1)
14. There are no Alien signals detected coming out of the astronomy community.
-Almost right. There is a possible Proxima Centauri signal. (0)
15. A flat earther launches to space, sees the curvature of the earth, then claims he was seeing a simulation projected onto his retina from the sides of the ship's windows.
-No. But Trump did get a dose of reality. (0)


(7 of 15)

[Redclaws]

“ -SpaceX recovered 17 fairings from sea or vessel out of 49 F9 launches. well over 40% (1)”
Errrrrrrr.  .4 *49 = 19.6

[moreno7798]

“ -SpaceX recovered 17 fairings from sea or vessel out of 49 F9 launches. well over 40% (1)”
Errrrrrrr.  .4 *49 = 19.6

That was a typo. Correction made.

[Lar]

My predictions for 2020.. somewhat rehashed from 2019, which were rehashed from 2018

2019:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg1888769#msg1888769
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46748.msg2028923#msg2028923

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

2020 predictions:

How'd I do? Let's see...

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (Robust == more than 15 flights, I guessed 24 in the poll)
I set the bar too low, this was easy. 1 point

- SpaceX will launch less than 4 missions with expendable cores (down from last year's prediction of 6 or less)
Yup. 2 points

- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 90% in 2019 which was my prediction, let's try again)
They had one deliberate expend and 2 failures. the number of launches that weren't deliberate expend is over 20 so this is a win. 3 points

- FH will launch at least once, it will be a success and all cores will  be recovered (more optimistic about recovery than 2019)
FH is the red headed stepchild now. NO launches for you! 3/4

- Boca Chica will  launch something that gets above the Karman line, and will be going fast enough to test orbital entry on return, but there may not actually be any orbital flights. (revised from last year)
12.5 km is not exactly 100 so no 3/5

- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC or clarify what can be launched (revised from last year)
sort of. There is a comment period about expanding the launch license. Call it half right.3.5/6

- CommsX constellation will see at least another 240 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission, that's only 4 dedicated, there are way more on the manifest)
Easy win. 4.5/7

- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Vegas boring completed but maybe not operational yet.
missed on both of those. the boring is done tho. 4.5/8

- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups
well yeah. 5.5/9

- Dragon 2 will launch with crew/passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year)
Mos def 6.5/10

- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last two years)
if wishes were fishes. 6.5/11

- SpaceX will really show they have solved fairing recovery and at least 60% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 4 fairing half will be reused successfully. (up from 40% and 1 reused fairing half)
I don't think we're quite there yet. Next year this one wins though I think. 6.5/12

- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration
Actually, no. (do you agree?) it's honing in. 6.5/13

- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2020
well sort of, the numbering/abbreviation scheme changed a bit, now it's "booster" instead of SH so .. half. 7/14

- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc)
Nope. 7/15

- Starliner will launch with passengers/crew in 2020 (reversal of last year)
Sadly, no. I was being nice. Should have bet the other way.  Next year I win this one I think. Maybe? 7/16

- Boeing will skate right into the first crewed test flight without having to repeat the uncrewed, through some skullduggery of some sort.
I am so glad to be wrong about this one but they're up to something, I know it.  7/17

- NASA's tilt toward Boeing which was evident in 2019 becomes even more pronounced and Boeing will capture the flag even if it means delaying Dragon by months and months so they can win.
Also glad. Dragon captured the flag and had another mission as well by year end. 7/18


- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (fourpeat)
No sign of any movement at all right? I can't award this. I should cut it, they gave up on Centaur. 7/19

- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (fourpeat)
Not that I know of. 7/20

- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and still kind of a gimme)
Well yeah. 8/21


- Blue will not launch New Shepard more than 3 times and at least one of those will be uncrewed. At year end they may announce cessation of the program (last year was >5, this year is <4).
The launch part right. They haven't announced cessation but they might as well have. 8.5/22

- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
Again no. 8.5/23

- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
He's been snarky. But his response to the SN8 launch was gracious. half right. 9/24

- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)
Well yeah. 10/25

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
Well yeah. green run anyone? 11/26

- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)
Well yeah.  But there has been a lot of innovative contracting and proposals. half right. Maybe I'm too cynical? 11.5/27


- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success. (repeat of last year)
Not exactly. 7 launches, 1 failure so 6 successes but not 8 total. half right. 12/28.

- By year end there will be an Electron recovery, perhaps from the sea but maybe even via helicopter (new)
From the sea. 13/29


- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2020 (repeat of last year... cmon)
Again no. 13/30

- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl (repeat of last year...)
Nope. One try, a failure. Maybe next year. 13/31

- Stratolaunch's Roc will not find a paying customer and will be mothballed
Hasn't found a paying customer that I'm aware of, isn't mothballed. Half right. 13.5/32

- There will continue to be shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one startup in existence at the start of 2020 will exit by the end of 2020
I should cut this, it's too wishywashy. Yes. 14/33

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).
China is not that private. so no.14/34

- NSF's new look will see some minor refinement but nothing as big as late 2019
we continue to make improvements. cut this next year for horn tooting. 15/35

- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)

Sadly, yeah 16/36

Wow, that's horrid. Not even 50% Too optimistic in some places too pessimistic in others.

[niwax]

The year isn't quite done, but let's see how I did.

Falcon 9 will break 20 launches with at least 20 successes
Easy. 1/1

Starship will achieve orbit before the end of Q3
A tad optimistic. 1/2

Starship will land from orbit or at least successfully simulate a water landing
Not without going to orbit first. 1/3

Both CC providers will fly meat but NASA will still be in a political mess over Soyuz seats
Never overestimate Boeing. 1/4

A Starlink product with pricing will be announced before the end of Q3
$100 beta? Sure, why not. 2/5

Select customers will have Starlink access
See above. 3/6

Elon Musk will present a future plan either at IAC or with Maezawa
Ha. Remember conferences? Not even half a point for that five minute interview with the Mars Society. 3/7

Both BO and Virgin tourist offerings will get pushed to Q4 at the earliest
Q4 what year? 4/8

There will be at most one tourist flight and it will be explicitly presented as experimental
At most can mean zero. 5/9

Vector or its former CEO will come back with something space related and just as dodgy
I really didn't expect this wildcard to pay off. 6/10

BO will announce another concept, either lander, rocket configuration or tourist product
Wow, an entire new moon landing system! 7/11

SpaceX will fly a rideshare in H2
Unless they pull it off in the next week, it just barely slipped. 7/12

EELV2 contracts will be awarded with old vehicles expected to fly some missions
Yep, and Atlas is still here. 8/13

Vulcan development will continue on track
The engine schedule still looks odd, but ULA kept their target dates so far. 9/14

SLS won't
Maybe they'll finish they November testing in 2021. 10/15

Starship will appear in an official NASA presentation
Wohoo, moon landers! 11/16

Not too bad, I knew the Starship stuff was a bit enthusiastic. Kind of funny how the only big misses are the SpaceX programs that are going like hell.

[Proponent]

I'll go bolder still:  ULA (Vulcan, with Atlas V as a partial back-up) and NGIS (OmegA) win the Phase 2 Air Force launch competition.  ULA gets the 60% share, NGIS the 40%.

Well, I guess I was 40% wrong, since ULA got 60% but it was SpaceX, not NGIS, that got 40%.

[ncb1397]

A Starlink product with pricing will be announced before the end of Q3
$100 beta? Sure, why not. 2/5

Hate to burst your bubble on this one, but the starlink product offering with pricing was a couple weeks past Q3.

[Kryten]

US
SS2 flies a few pathfinder passenger flights but isn't truly operational (I'll consider this false if they get more than four flights in or more than once a month) - arguably pathfinders, but no paid passenger service
NS crew flights take place in the second half of the year, no real paid passenger service - Nope. they only got one flight in, which you could blame on You Know What but i have a feeling this wouldn't have happened anyway. Never bet on Blue.
Astra reach orbit but not on the first attempt - No - but very close
Another Stealth Space company enters prominence No
No more than two US lunar landers launch and no more than one successfully lands - Very much yes
Starliner and Crew Dragon first operational flights both have no more than minor issues absolutely not
No Starliner OFT-2 well, there wasn't one this year, but i'm pretty sure i meant none at all

China
None of the liquid-fueled private rockets makes orbit successfully by the end of the year - yes, ZQ-2 is pushed to middle 2021
No failures on established launchers (those that have already flown before the start of the year) happened twice
Chang'e 5 completes it's mission successfully yep

Europe
Exomars 2020 becomes Exomars 2022 this was basically a free space. I was so optimistic last year...
Ariane 6 slips to 2021 hah! they wish!

Russia
No complete failures yep

Others
DPRK shows off a larger engine or an engine cluster, but no SLV launches. no, very quiet on that front
Egypt show off an orbital launcher concept no


Overall
110-130 launches yes
5-8 complete failures (lots of maiden launches this year) nine! I thought this one was pessimistic at the time
China>US>Russia launch totals (with electron not counting as US) yes
At least seven orbital launchers have their maiden flight attempts this year incredibly, yes
VS-50 is tested successfully (really hoping for this one, those guys need a break...) nope

8/20 = 40%. I broke my streak of getting a few percent better every year - though you can hardly blame someone for failing to predict this year, of all years, accurately.

[Bubbinski]

Okay here goes.

- The world geopolitical situation remains tense but won’t go completely pear shaped this year like I’d been expecting, so no space warfare, no huge debris belts. Yet.

RIGHT. Although Armenia and Azerbaijan went at it and we almost went to war with Iran. The geopolitical situation didn’t go pear-shaped, but the overall world situation did due to COVID.

- NASA budget stays about the same, the impeachment drama sucks all the oxygen out of the air on Capitol Hill so to speak, leaving no room for big budgetary decisions. It’s an election year so no big cuts or increases. Fireworks with budget or world situation wait till 2021.

RIGHT. Though Artemis didn’t get all the funding that it wanted for the lander.

- First commercial lunar landers will be flight-ready by the end of 2020.

WRONG. Not yet. This year though.

- SLS aces its green run and will be almost flight-ready by the end of 2020, but there will be whispers from the winning presidential team and Congress about cancelling the program or cutting it down to only a few flights due to escalating costs and increasingly viable alternatives

WRONG. No green run yet. Didn’t even hear any whispers from Congress, they were too busy with impeachment then COVID.

- Starship makes it to orbit atop Super Heavy a week or two before Christmas next year. A timetable will be announced for crewed flights.

WRONG on both counts, though spectacular progress was made, there were setbacks as well like the SN4 explosion.

- Elon will announce another paying human customer for Starship (like I’d expected this year).

WRONG. The customer was AXIOM for Crew Dragon.

- SpaceX Falcon 9 will fly 20 flights, all successful. Falcon Heavy will fly once.

HALF RIGHT. F9 flew 26 times, but no FH flights.

- DM-2 will send Americans back to space from US soil this spring, and will “capture the flag”. Boeing CFT follows 2-3 months later. USCV rotation flights operational by end of 2020

HALF RIGHT. DM-2 and Crew-1 happened. But CFT got pushed back due to OFT-1 issues.

- Mars 2020 and the UAE Hope mission will launch successfully to Mars. The ExoMars will be delayed to 2022 due to parachute issues and the Chinese will also need till 2022 to be ready to launch their orbiter/rover

HALF RIGHT. Perseverance and Hope both launched successfully, and ExoMars was indeed delayed to 2022. However, the Chinese launched Tianwen in 2020 too.

- Solar Orbiter launches successfully this coming February

RIGHT.

- JWST will be near flight readiness by the end of 2020

RIGHT. The spacecraft is complete, launch set for OCT 2021.

- Rocketlab will launch from Wallops near the end of 2020 and will recover one rocket by end of year. 10-12 flights.

HALF RIGHT. No Wallops launch, but one rocket was recovered. 7 launches in 2020.

- 2-4 failed launches between Iran, China, and Russia. Crewed Soyuz missions will fly safely though.

HALF RIGHT. More than 4 failed launches, including maiden flights of US rockets. All Soyuz ISS missions flew successfully.

- Another TESS exoplanet find will have water vapor in the habitable zone, size of planet will be close to Earth

HALF RIGHT - TOI-700b announced in January, but no follow up yet. Yet.

- Rumors of the “L” word (past or present life) on Mars, Europa, or Enceladus will be widely bandied about in the astronomy/planetary science community by the time Thanksgiving/Christmas roll around next year.

WRONG. Nothing like that. Yet.

- Curiosity has a successful year of science

RIGHT

- InSight mole gets partially unstuck and able to drill down a few feet but no more. Newly discovered properties of Martian soil are confirmed as culprit of mole issues, which is a big discovery in itself

HALF RIGHT. The jury’s still out, but the mole did get unstuck and they’re working on compacting the soil.

- Osiris-Rex successfully collects a sample from Bennu after some initial problems

RIGHT. The only issue was that too much of the sample was collected and some of it leaked out so they had to forego an exact measurement.

- Hayabusa2 successfully returns its sample from Ryugu to Earth late next year

RIGHT.

- An exomoon is confirmed

WRONG. But I expect it to happen one of these days.

- Virgin Galactic FINALLY starts commercial flights just before Christmas next year.

WRONG. COVID plus the move to New Mexico postponed things.

- Blue Origin makes one or two New Shepard crewed test flights but does not yet start commercial service. First New Glenn pathfinder is rolled out late in the year and there will be more buzz about that from the company

HALF WRONG. No NS crewed flights, no NG pathfinder. But no commercial service, so that’s something.

- Virgin Orbit makes its first test launch after New Year’s and flies at least one operational flight before the end of 2020.

HALF RIGHT. VO did make a test launch but it failed. 2nd flight in early 2021.

- Stratolaunch sadly goes nowhere, the aircraft is acquired by the DoD for outsize transport work and research by DARPA

WRONG. Somehow it is still around as a potential space launcher, they’re trying again.

- Starlink initial operational capability by the end of the year for North America. Progress will be made toward easing concerns about orbital debris and effect on astronomy (new coatings on spacecraft, shorter orbital lifetimes, paring down of satellites needed, etc.)

HALF RIGHT. A new sunshade helped somewhat with the brightness issue, and there’s beta testing now, but no IOC yet.

- On a personal level, I’ll build and finish at least 2 space models and will make at least one launch trip.

HALF RIGHT. A great year on the model building front. But COVID scotched the launch trip. Planning for later in 2021 now.
-