SpaceX potential IPO

[lightleviathan]

YES!

What are they waiting for?


Because Musk already has hundreds of billions and hasn't even launched a CubeSat for Mars.

Where are all the hundreds of ISRU technologies for Mars and their funding?

LOL the irony is strong today

Unless you think Musk is inmortal, we are waiting for Mars stuff since 2018, and at the moment, no ISRU tech, no even a cubesats for study Mars.

I don't see the "irony".

None of this is attached to an IPO. It won't accelerate Starship development, and it won't launch Starlink faster. That, truly, is the barrier to their growth, not sheer finances. Also, point to the Tom Mueller tweet about Mars ISRU

[SpaceLizard]

YES!

What are they waiting for?


Because Musk already has hundreds of billions and hasn't even launched a CubeSat for Mars.

Where are all the hundreds of ISRU technologies for Mars and their funding?

LOL the irony is strong today

Unless you think Musk is inmortal, we are waiting for Mars stuff since 2018, and at the moment, no ISRU tech, no even a cubesats for study Mars.

I don't see the "irony".

What would a cubesat tell them that existing data from current and prior NASA et. al. missions can't? As far as I know the only thing SpaceX needs data for that they don't already have access to would require sending a whole Starship to Mars...

[meekGee]

YES!

What are they waiting for?


Because Musk already has hundreds of billions and hasn't even launched a CubeSat for Mars.

Where are all the hundreds of ISRU technologies for Mars and their funding?

LOL the irony is strong today

Unless you think Musk is inmortal, we are waiting for Mars stuff since 2018, and at the moment, no ISRU tech, no even a cubesats for study Mars.

I don't see the "irony".

Same can be said about any project, if you only look at the end goal in a binary manner.  A pyramid is not complete until the last stone is placed. But nobody judges pyramids like that.

You extoll BO, but unlike BO, we already got;
- 200/year semi reusable heavy launcher
- manned spaceflight
- actual profitable space industry
- superheavy rocket and ship

And to your method, we got "nothing"?

If it's an attempt to troll, it's a poor one.
If it's your actual opinion, you're just uninformed or ignorant.

[Tywin]

YES!

What are they waiting for?


Because Musk already has hundreds of billions and hasn't even launched a CubeSat for Mars.

Where are all the hundreds of ISRU technologies for Mars and their funding?

LOL the irony is strong today

Unless you think Musk is inmortal, we are waiting for Mars stuff since 2018, and at the moment, no ISRU tech, no even a cubesats for study Mars.

I don't see the "irony".

Same can be said about any project, if you only look at the end goal in a binary manner.  A pyramid is not complete until the last stone is placed. But nobody judges pyramids like that.

You extoll BO, but unlike BO, we already got;
- 200/year semi reusable heavy launcher
- manned spaceflight
- actual profitable space industry
- superheavy rocket and ship

And to your method, we got "nothing"?

If it's an attempt to troll, it's a poor one.
If it's your actual opinion, you're just uninformed or ignorant.

Your problem is that ALL that can be equal to a good LEO company, NOT anything to do with Mars.

[Tywin]

YES!

What are they waiting for?


Because Musk already has hundreds of billions and hasn't even launched a CubeSat for Mars.

Where are all the hundreds of ISRU technologies for Mars and their funding?

LOL the irony is strong today

Unless you think Musk is inmortal, we are waiting for Mars stuff since 2018, and at the moment, no ISRU tech, no even a cubesats for study Mars.

I don't see the "irony".

Same can be said about any project, if you only look at the end goal in a binary manner.  A pyramid is not complete until the last stone is placed. But nobody judges pyramids like that.

You extoll BO, but unlike BO, we already got;
- 200/year semi reusable heavy launcher
- manned spaceflight
- actual profitable space industry
- superheavy rocket and ship

And to your method, we got "nothing"?

If it's an attempt to troll, it's a poor one.
If it's your actual opinion, you're just uninformed or ignorant.

PS: if you think Mars is only "transport problem" then you don't see the complete picture.

[meekGee]

PS: if you think Mars is only "transport problem" then you don't see the complete picture.

You're the one that brought up transporting a cubesat.

And yes, duration of transport / launch windows is the only metric by which Mars is a more difficult challenge.  Not even deltaV.

And a massive rapidly reusable transporter enables large fleets, which sidelines the problem, and is exactly the plan.

...which is being followed right in front of your eyes, if only you'd bother to look, instead of gloating every time there's a setback.

...which is why making money in space is important, which is why BO is such a disappointment, and why a spaceX IPO is even plausible.

[Vultur]

On further thought, the reason this bothers me is that Musk has stated in the past that SpaceX won't go public until Mars settlement occurs, so that it's not distracted from that goal by short-term returns.

Given that history, it's hard not to see discussion of a near future IPO as a potential red flag.

YES!

What are they waiting for?


Because Musk already has hundreds of billions and hasn't even launched a CubeSat for Mars.

Where are all the hundreds of ISRU technologies for Mars and their funding?

LOL the irony is strong today

Unless you think Musk is inmortal, we are waiting for Mars stuff since 2018, and at the moment, no ISRU tech, no even a cubesats for study Mars.

I don't see the "irony".

Same can be said about any project, if you only look at the end goal in a binary manner.  A pyramid is not complete until the last stone is placed. But nobody judges pyramids like that.

You extoll BO, but unlike BO, we already got;
- 200/year semi reusable heavy launcher
- manned spaceflight
- actual profitable space industry
- superheavy rocket and ship

And to your method, we got "nothing"?

If it's an attempt to troll, it's a poor one.
If it's your actual opinion, you're just uninformed or ignorant.

Your problem is that ALL that can be equal to a good LEO company, NOT anything to do with Mars.

"Low Earth orbit is halfway to anywhere"

More so once you develop orbital refueling. Even more so if you have a vehicle that can take advantage of aerobraking/aero capture at Mars (or to change Earth orbits).

The only "Mars specific" hardware would be the surface ISRU stuff and later habitats (initial habitat would be the Starship itself). None of that is critical path until Starship has proven orbital refueling.

[Tywin]

PS: if you think Mars is only "transport problem" then you don't see the complete picture.

You're the one that brought up transporting a cubesat.

And yes, duration of transport / launch windows is the only metric by which Mars is a more difficult challenge.  Not even deltaV.

And a massive rapidly reusable transporter enables large fleets, which sidelines the problem, and is exactly the plan.

...which is being followed right in front of your eyes, if only you'd bother to look, instead of gloating every time there's a setback.

...which is why making money in space is important, which is why BO is such a disappointment, and why a spaceX IPO is even plausible.

Except when Blue earn contracts, made money, etc, then is not connecting the dot, and lost the way?! right?

[Tywin]

PS: if you think Mars is only "transport problem" then you don't see the complete picture.

You're the one that brought up transporting a cubesat.

And yes, duration of transport / launch windows is the only metric by which Mars is a more difficult challenge.  Not even deltaV.

And a massive rapidly reusable transporter enables large fleets, which sidelines the problem, and is exactly the plan.

...which is being followed right in front of your eyes, if only you'd bother to look, instead of gloating every time there's a setback.

...which is why making money in space is important, which is why BO is such a disappointment, and why a spaceX IPO is even plausible.

Again, ALL that can be good for LEO, for data centers, Starlink, etc...nothing at the moment for Mars.

[meekGee]

Except when Blue earn contracts, made money, etc, then is not connecting the dot, and lost the way?! right?

BO makes money?  In what universe?

They have a headcount similar to SpaceX, have a tiny fraction of the contracts, no equivalent to Dragon or Starlink...

For revenue, they mostly have milestone payments toward some future launches which won't happen faster than 1/month in 2026 (to be generous)

So where is the revenue coming from?

[meekGee]

Again, ALL that can be good for LEO, for data centers, Starlink, etc...nothing at the moment for Mars.

You mean except for a super heavy launcher built entirely around the concept of a refuelable ship, right?

Why would they have built Starship the way they did?  Are you seriously thinking this whole circus is for LEO?

Again, you're either trolling or ignorant, I can't decide.

[Tywin]

Again, ALL that can be good for LEO, for data centers, Starlink, etc...nothing at the moment for Mars.

You mean except for a super heavy launcher built entirely around the concept of a refuelable ship, right?

Why would they have built Starship the way they did?  Are you seriously thinking this whole circus is for LEO?

Again, you're either trolling or ignorant, I can't decide.

I prefer a third option, skeptical.

[Tywin]

Except when Blue earn contracts, made money, etc, then is not connecting the dot, and lost the way?! right?

BO makes money?  In what universe?

They have a headcount similar to SpaceX, have a tiny fraction of the contracts, no equivalent to Dragon or Starlink...

For revenue, they mostly have milestone payments toward some future launches which won't happen faster than 1/month in 2026 (to be generous)

So where is the revenue coming from?

I sure, they have a LOT more revenue NOW, than in 2015.

Is gonna take time, but Blue will be profitable in the future.

[Tywin]

By the way, an IPO of SpaceX could be very good for Blue too, the workers could receive option to shares, and a future IPO of Blue too...

[SpaceLizard]

By the way, an IPO of SpaceX could be very good for Blue too, the workers could receive option to shares, and a future IPO of Blue too...

Um... Are you suggesting that a SpaceX IPO would somehow inevitably lead to a Blue Origin IPO?

[meekGee]

Again, ALL that can be good for LEO, for data centers, Starlink, etc...nothing at the moment for Mars.

You mean except for a super heavy launcher built entirely around the concept of a refuelable ship, right?

Why would they have built Starship the way they did?  Are you seriously thinking this whole circus is for LEO?

Again, you're either trolling or ignorant, I can't decide.

I prefer a third option, skeptical.

"Skeptical" is the adjective of choice of many delusional movements out there.

When you construct a private reality that's divorced from facts and is also tilted towards a pre-conceived preference, that's not skepticism.

[meekGee]

Except when Blue earn contracts, made money, etc, then is not connecting the dot, and lost the way?! right?

BO makes money?  In what universe?

They have a headcount similar to SpaceX, have a tiny fraction of the contracts, no equivalent to Dragon or Starlink...

For revenue, they mostly have milestone payments toward some future launches which won't happen faster than 1/month in 2026 (to be generous)

So where is the revenue coming from?

I sure, they have a LOT more revenue NOW, than in 2015.

Is gonna take time, but Blue will be profitable in the future.

That's a very low bar, so sure.

I gotta ask tho, why did you start this thread?

[thespacecow]

On further thought, the reason this bothers me is that Musk has stated in the past that SpaceX won't go public until Mars settlement occurs, so that it's not distracted from that goal by short-term returns.

Given that history, it's hard not to see discussion of a near future IPO as a potential red flag.

I think that's fair, I wouldn't be surprised that there's a course change for the long terms plan for Mars. Doesn't mean abandoning the goal or any changes to near term plan, I'd still expect cargo missions to Mars in 2028 window, but how to get 1M people colony may need to change based on the reality on the ground.

My guess is Elon sees lunar industry being able to ramp up faster than Mars colony due to:
1. Crazy level of AI investment which he can leverage for the Moon, but not for Mars
2. Far shorter mission time, no launch window to worry about
3. No pesky humans to worry about, can be done mostly robotically or even remotely. Also can leverage AI for greater automation.

He recently tweeted this: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1994940491054682570

Optimus will be the Von Neumann probe

and this: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1997794076570300616

Once there are lunar factories, robots and mass drivers on the Moon, such that the entire loop is closed, the system probably decouples from conventional currencies and operates autogenously in watts and tonnage

Well wouldn't that be nice, factories and robots and launch system entirely decoupled from conventional currencies, and can be used to build up Mars colony just by his personal order, no investors to worry about, no more question about who's going to pay for Mars, where we're going we don't need money! Something like this could endure long after his death and can ensure Mars colony happens no matter what.

There could also be other reasons like competition in AI arena, and from China, but I think the above may be his main thinking process right now.

[meekGee]

On further thought, the reason this bothers me is that Musk has stated in the past that SpaceX won't go public until Mars settlement occurs, so that it's not distracted from that goal by short-term returns.

Given that history, it's hard not to see discussion of a near future IPO as a potential red flag.

I think that's fair, I wouldn't be surprised that there's a course change for the long terms plan for Mars. Doesn't mean abandoning the goal or any changes to near term plan, I'd still expect cargo missions to Mars in 2028 window, but how to get 1M people colony may need to change based on the reality on the ground.

My guess is Elon sees lunar industry being able to ramp up faster than Mars colony due to:
1. Crazy level of AI investment which he can leverage for the Moon, but not for Mars
2. Far shorter mission time, no launch window to worry about
3. No pesky humans to worry about, can be done mostly robotically or even remotely. Also can leverage AI for greater automation.

He recently tweeted this: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1994940491054682570

Optimus will be the Von Neumann probe

and this: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1997794076570300616

Once there are lunar factories, robots and mass drivers on the Moon, such that the entire loop is closed, the system probably decouples from conventional currencies and operates autogenously in watts and tonnage

Well wouldn't that be nice, factories and robots and launch system entirely decoupled from conventional currencies, and can be used to build up Mars colony just by his personal order, no investors to worry about, no more question about who's going to pay for Mars, where we're going we don't need money! Something like this could endure long after his death and can ensure Mars colony happens no matter what.

There could also be other reasons like competition in AI arena, and from China, but I think the above may be his main thinking process right now.

I agree here, in that I much rather see the company bootstrap it.

However - bootstrapping takes time.

So I'm on the fence on whether this is a good idea, and besides, we're all reading tea leaves.

I'm not on the fence on whether this spells out that they're abandoning the goal. Those are detractors fantasies and make no sense, don't let them get to you...

[Vultur]

I don't at all believe in unattended Von Neumann robot factories on the Moon as a thing possible in the next several decades, though. So putting those on the path for Mars is equivalent to abandoning Mars as a thing that will happen in the next several decades - in result, though not in intent. Unless they can pivot back to the original plan when the robot factories plan (IMO inevitably) fails.

 A closed loop system like that is many breakthroughs away. And not just breakthroughs in AI /software either.

There is, however, the possibility that all this Moon over Mars focus is a way of showing that SpaceX is really committed to Artemis. Musk has only started talking about it since Acting Admin Duffy mentioned re-competing the Artemis HLS contract.