Author Topic: SpaceX potential IPO  (Read 86926 times)

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #220 on: 02/18/2026 06:50 pm »
Humain, the Saudi government's AI data center company, invested $3 billion in xAI before the merger with SpaceX.  Unclear whether that is part of the $20 billion Series E round, or the round was extended to $23 billion after the round was announced as closed (as is sometimes done).

Also unclear whether xAI is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX.  Seems likely, but that is not a foregone conclusion.

https://twitter.com/TareqAmin_/status/2024109634965925922

Quote
Tareq Amin @TareqAmin_
I’m proud to share that @HUMAIN has invested $3 billion into @xai 's Series E round, just prior to its historic acquisition by
@SpaceX.

Through this transaction, HUMAIN became a significant minority shareholder in xAI.

The investment builds on our previously announced 500MW AI infrastructure partnership with xAI in Saudi Arabia, reinforcing HUMAIN’s role as both a strategic development partner and a scaled global investor in frontier AI.

#HUMAIN #TheEndOfLimits

8:11 AM · Feb 18, 2026

« Last Edit: 02/18/2026 06:52 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline thespacecow

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #221 on: 02/28/2026 10:47 am »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-weighs-confidential-ipo-filing-202517382.html

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SpaceX is targeting filing confidentially for an initial public offering as soon as next month, according to people familiar with the matter, as billionaire Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company moves forward with plans for the biggest-ever listing.

The Starbase, Texas-based firm expects to submit its draft IPO registration to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in March, the people said. Such a move would keep it on track for a June listing, making it the first of what could be a trio of mega-IPOs, with OpenAI and Anthropic PBC potentially coming after.

...

SpaceX could seek a valuation in the IPO of more than $1.75 trillion, some of the people said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private. It acquired Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI in a February deal that valued the enlarged entity at $1.25 trillion, Bloomberg News has reported.

...

A listing for SpaceX would raise as much as $50 billion, people familiar with the preparations have said. At that size, it would be larger than the current record holder, Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion debut in 2019.

Offline Chris Huys

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #222 on: 02/28/2026 11:59 pm »
Some opinion of the high valuation:

https://twitter.com/peter_adderton/status/2018859958654374365
Nvidia, for example, went up 16,000% over 5 years, and it's at the bottom of he food chain.

For this valuation to make sense, you need to believe that AI will become a part of industry and economics, not just a demo.  If you do, it's a perfectly good valuation.

Consider what happened to Intel, Microsoft, or Google since their very early days.

Your attempt to compare present-day revenue with valuation is not even credible - nobody ever does that in a situation like this. It's just irrelevant.

I think, spaceX will show a strong balance, after the first day of the IPO. (checked with google ai)

operating cashflow +8 billion usd
free cashflow +4 billion usd

total cash 75 billion usd
cash and cash equivalents 10 billion usd

total equity 68 billion usd
Additional Paid in Capital 60 billion usd
Retained Earnings 8 billion usd

capitalisation line, 75 billion usd

total debt 10 billion usd

A balance, worthy of one of the tech giants, like meta, that only will hopefully improve in the coming years.

Also twitter/X, has crossed 1 billion usd in non-advertisement revenue in early 2026, according to X, thx in large part to grok ai, which makes them also a money maker.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2026 12:15 am by Chris Huys »

Offline Vultur

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #223 on: 03/01/2026 12:55 am »
Starlink alone could potentially support a $1T+ valuation. If Starlink on Starship lets them support enough customers they could potentially become the main ISP in low fiber connectivity parts of the world... Which is a lot. If they end up with 500M or 1B customers...

xAI on the other hand is facing pretty steep competitive advantages in the AI space, even if anyone can make profit on LLM-AI at scale (which isn't guaranteed).

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #224 on: 03/03/2026 04:21 pm »
SpaceX appears to be cleaning up xAI's debt in the runup to the draft S-1 registration statement.  I understand that there is a lot of SPV debt to finance GPU purchases and rent-backs.  Unknown what part, if any, of that is included in the $17.5 billion.

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Musk’s X, xAI to Repay $17.5 Billion Debt as SpaceX IPO Nears
By Gowri Gurumurthy, Carmen Arroyo, and Paula Seligson
March 2, 2026 at 12:35 PM EST
Updated on March 2, 2026 at 6:17 PM EST

The roughly $17.5 billion of debt tied to Elon Musk’s social network X and artificial intelligence startup xAI is set to be paid back in full, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Morgan Stanley, which handled both companies’ debt raises, has been telling existing lenders on behalf of X and xAI that the firms will repay the outstanding debt, said the people, who asked not to be named because the details are private. They haven’t disclosed where the capital is coming from, the people added. XAI raised $20 billion of new equity money in January.

X, formerly known as Twitter, took on about $12.5 billion of debt during Musk’s purchase, while xAI borrowed $5 billion through bonds and loans in June. The companies merged last year under xAI Holdings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/musk-s-xai-to-buy-back-3-billion-of-debt-early-in-run-up-to-ipo

Offline phantomdj

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #225 on: 03/11/2026 06:22 pm »
Looks like Elon is pitting the New York Stock Exchange against the Nasdaq but probably wants early inclusion into the Nasdaq 100 index where the other megacap names are like Nvidia, Apple and Amazon.

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Under the Nasdaq's proposed "Fast Entry" rule, a newly listed company would be eligible for accelerated inclusion in just under a month if its market capitalization ranks among the index's top 40 current members. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of around $1.75 trillion for the IPO, one of the people said, which would make it the sixth-largest company by market value in the U.S., based on the latest share prices.

Admission to a blue-chip index like the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500 gives companies increased access to the deep-pocketed institutional investors who typically buy sizable positions for their own index funds, broadening their shareholder base and improving liquidity over time. While the NYSE has a similar index that tracks its 100 largest U.S. stocks, it is less widely followed by investors, making inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 especially influential for megacap IPOs.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/exclusive-elon-musk-s-spacex-weighs-nasdaq-listing-after-seeking-early-index-entry-sources-say/ar-AA1XUPOC
« Last Edit: 03/11/2026 06:23 pm by phantomdj »
SpaceX has become what NASA used to be in the '60's, innovative and driven.

Offline sanman

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #226 on: 03/15/2026 03:23 pm »
SpaceX IPO driven by capital fund-raising market dynamics


Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #227 on: 03/15/2026 04:00 pm »
SpaceX IPO driven by capital fund-raising market dynamics


Scandal already?  I admit I didn't donate 30 minutes to the cause.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2026 05:26 pm by meekGee »
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Offline sanman

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #228 on: 03/16/2026 12:51 am »
Scandal already?  I admit I didn't donate 30 minutes to the cause.

Yeah, I admit I didn't pay attention to the 'Scandal' part - just mainly his description of how capital fund-raising constraints are a primary force steering how the IPO shapes up.
Given the wider market turbulence that's in the offing, could this significantly impact the success of the IPO?
Given how SpaceX and Musk are already household names, it would likely mean everybody and his brother queuing up to buy in -- and also inevitably a huge Pump-&-Dump along with that.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #229 on: 03/16/2026 01:59 am »
Scandal already?  I admit I didn't donate 30 minutes to the cause.

Yeah, I admit I didn't pay attention to the 'Scandal' part - just mainly his description of how capital fund-raising constraints are a primary force steering how the IPO shapes up.
Given the wider market turbulence that's in the offing, could this significantly impact the success of the IPO?
Given how SpaceX and Musk are already household names, it would likely mean everybody and his brother queuing up to buy in -- and also inevitably a huge Pump-&-Dump along with that.
IPOs in general are black magic, and not of the good kind. We can continue from here to the idiotic belief that "the market knows" and that the aggregate behavior of a million fools somehow has clairvoyance.

Or, just shrug and let it go.  SpaceXAI has huge potential, also risk, and the IPO will be a circus completely divorced from any rational evaluation of these factors.

See?  I too can tell the future.

Oh and "pump and dump" really doesn't apply here. It's a real thing, but this ain't that.
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #230 on: 03/16/2026 05:24 am »
Only 3-5% of shares will be available in IPO. A few months later the remaining 95-97% held by Musk, SpaceX employees and investors can be placed on market. This is when market value of shares gets sorted out over few weeks or months.


Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #231 on: 03/16/2026 06:27 am »
Only 3-5% of shares will be available in IPO. A few months later the remaining 95-97% held by Musk, SpaceX employees and investors can be placed on market. This is when market value of shares gets sorted out over few weeks or months.
Nothing ever gets sorted out.  This is supply and demand (of shares, not of actual product) in its ugliest form, based on the prediction of what the supply and demand dictated share value will be next week.

It'll be a circus both at IPO time and later on.
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Offline Chris Huys

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #232 on: 03/16/2026 09:22 am »
Scandal already?  I admit I didn't donate 30 minutes to the cause.
Patrick Boyle is like the elizabeth loppato of the verge equivalent, but then for youtube.
He does, hedge his bets, in the 2 last sentences of his video.

"SpaceX maybe a extraordinary engineering company, but its been sold to the public as a financial miracle, at a price that is to me very difficult to explain. That doesnt mean that the IPO will fail or the stock price will fall, but a lot of things will have to go right for spaceX for it to be a good longterm investment."

The "scandal" part of the title, is probably, about the fact that there are rumors about fasttracking spaceX into the nasdaq 100 and the s&p500. 

For the nasdaq:
A new "fast entry" rule would be written, that would apply for the top 40 companies in market cap, to be included in the nasdaq 100, a subset of the nasdaq, after just 15 days instead of 3 months. The new rule would be allready in the "being written" phase.

for the s&p:
And also for fasttracking in the s&p 500, instead of a year, needed for a company to be allowed in the s&p500, due to "price discovery",  it would be much shorter. For the s&p500, the rule is only in the consultation phase.
For the s&p500 it would only be companies with massive ipo valuations that would be allowed to use the new rule, if it gets implemented.


Proponents of the rule changes, say that its hard to defend, that massive IPO valuation companies, would be kept out of most of the american economy, for a extended time.

Its also about the competition between nasdaq and dow jones, dow jones "owns" s&p500.

google ai research on the above.

Offline Chris Huys

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #233 on: 03/16/2026 09:31 am »
Scandal already?  I admit I didn't donate 30 minutes to the cause.

Yeah, I admit I didn't pay attention to the 'Scandal' part - just mainly his description of how capital fund-raising constraints are a primary force steering how the IPO shapes up.
Given the wider market turbulence that's in the offing, could this significantly impact the success of the IPO?
Given how SpaceX and Musk are already household names, it would likely mean everybody and his brother queuing up to buy in -- and also inevitably a huge Pump-&-Dump along with that.
No. SpaceX is a fundamentally financially sound company. The IPO will succeed.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2026 09:47 am by Chris Huys »

Offline sanman

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #234 on: 03/31/2026 08:59 am »
Scandal already?  I admit I didn't donate 30 minutes to the cause.

Yeah, I admit I didn't pay attention to the 'Scandal' part - just mainly his description of how capital fund-raising constraints are a primary force steering how the IPO shapes up.
Given the wider market turbulence that's in the offing, could this significantly impact the success of the IPO?
Given how SpaceX and Musk are already household names, it would likely mean everybody and his brother queuing up to buy in -- and also inevitably a huge Pump-&-Dump along with that.

No. SpaceX is a fundamentally financially sound company. The IPO will succeed.

Well, I wasn't doubting the success of the IPO, but just pointing to the natural spikey nature of IPOs, where things overshoot upwards before settling back down again.

Please see the following video from that Kevin guy - the whole video is interesting, but his specific comments at 21:11 predict that kind of price movement pattern:



What's noteworthy is that Musk has gotten Nasdaq to change its rules to accommodate his SpaceX IPO, so that he can issue a very low Float percentage for publicly tradeable shares.
Musk has also publicly stated that he'd like a higher proportion of retail investors - a la Rocket Lab - presumably because he  sees them as less savvy and less likely to out-game him as compared to institutional investment houses.

Also, while SpaceX is the overwhelmingly dominant market leader, others will be making inroads into its existing market share (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Chinese competitors, etc) while Musk burns vast amounts of capital on his uphill battle to invent pie-in-the-sky infrastructure in space well beyond current technology levels.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #235 on: 03/31/2026 01:28 pm »
Also, while SpaceX is the overwhelmingly dominant market leader, others will be making inroads into its existing market share (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Chinese competitors, etc) while Musk burns vast amounts of capital on his uphill battle to invent pie-in-the-sky infrastructure in space well beyond current technology levels.

Those are hardly competitors.

BO is an entire generation behind on their launcher, have no manned capabilities (no, NS is not a mini space capsule), no orbital constellation (and if you want to count Leo, only a very fractional one, 2 generations behind) - and no future commercial plans beyond NASA work, and launching Leo. That's not a threat. It is a money losing proposition.

Rocket lab has a lot less still, is pumching waayyy above its weight, but they still don't even register.

China is still very much struggling. They have state-level backing but we all know what that leads to.

Meanwhile regular Starlink is steamrolling everyone, and there's a good chance orbital compute will do the same well before the big board and silicon make-over.

That battle may be a lot less uphill than you think.

The biggest risk IMO is the unstable side of Musk. If it fails it'll be something like that, not being out competed.

In a sea of IPOs of pre-revenue or pre-profit companies, this IPO stands out as being both very tech ambitious and very old school money making.
« Last Edit: 03/31/2026 01:35 pm by meekGee »
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Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #236 on: 03/31/2026 02:44 pm »
What's noteworthy is that Musk has gotten Nasdaq to change its rules to accommodate his SpaceX IPO, so that he can issue a very low Float percentage for publicly tradeable shares.
Musk has also publicly stated that he'd like a higher proportion of retail investors - a la Rocket Lab - presumably because he  sees them as less savvy and less likely to out-game him as compared to institutional investment houses.

Throughout Tesla's time as a public company, the retail investors have been the most supportive and protective of the company and of Musk personally.  Rock solid.  Most of the institutional investors have been fickle.  I can list some examples if you like.  So it's no wonder that Musk would wish the Tesla retail investor base to receive an allocation for SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 03/31/2026 02:48 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #237 on: 04/01/2026 07:15 pm »
SpaceX reportedly filed its draft S-1 registration statement.

Quote
SpaceX has filed confidentially for an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter, bringing billionaire Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI company closer to delivering the biggest-ever listing.

The company submitted its draft IPO registration to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The filing puts it on track for a June listing, which would make SpaceX the first of what could be a trio of mega-IPOs, ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/spacex-is-said-to-file-confidentially-for-ipo-ahead-of-ai-rivals

Offline Kiwi53

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #238 on: 04/01/2026 11:39 pm »
What's noteworthy is that Musk has gotten Nasdaq to change its rules to accommodate his SpaceX IPO, so that he can issue a very low Float percentage for publicly tradeable shares.
Musk has also publicly stated that he'd like a higher proportion of retail investors - a la Rocket Lab - presumably because he  sees them as less savvy and less likely to out-game him as compared to institutional investment houses.

Throughout Tesla's time as a public company, the retail investors have been the most supportive and protective of the company and of Musk personally.  Rock solid.  Most of the institutional investors have been fickle.  I can list some examples if you like.  So it's no wonder that Musk would wish the Tesla retail investor base to receive an allocation for SpaceX.

IMO retail investors are much more likely to buy SpaceX stock as an investment, and hold them for the medium to long term, which leads to stability. Institutions are more likely to buy SpaceX stock as 'goods for trade' to be bought and sold on a trader's whim or to suit some corporate goal entirely detached from the worth of the underlying stock.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX potential IPO
« Reply #239 on: 04/02/2026 03:51 am »
What's noteworthy is that Musk has gotten Nasdaq to change its rules to accommodate his SpaceX IPO, so that he can issue a very low Float percentage for publicly tradeable shares.
Musk has also publicly stated that he'd like a higher proportion of retail investors - a la Rocket Lab - presumably because he  sees them as less savvy and less likely to out-game him as compared to institutional investment houses.

Throughout Tesla's time as a public company, the retail investors have been the most supportive and protective of the company and of Musk personally.  Rock solid.  Most of the institutional investors have been fickle.  I can list some examples if you like.  So it's no wonder that Musk would wish the Tesla retail investor base to receive an allocation for SpaceX.

IMO retail investors are much more likely to buy SpaceX stock as an investment, and hold them for the medium to long term, which leads to stability. Institutions are more likely to buy SpaceX stock as 'goods for trade' to be bought and sold on a trader's whim or to suit some corporate goal entirely detached from the worth of the underlying stock.
Correct.

Retail investors are in it because of vision and belief in the long term. It's a good symbiotic relationship....
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