Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3  (Read 320117 times)

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #900 on: 01/22/2024 10:23 pm »
Considering the odds of Starliner surviving past the ISS contract are getting increasingly tenuous, all the CLD providers are looking nervously at a SpaceX monopoly in the short term, which suggests crew dragon by definition will need to fly beyond 2030 for at least a few years.
Why? SpaceX will be trying very hard to crewed Starship operational by then. If they succeed, they have little incentive to try to extend the life of Crew Dragon, and IMO they won't unless NASA insists. There is substantial overlap  between crewed Starship and Starship CLD.

The big unknown for me is the structure of the Commercial Crew Program in the crewed Starship era.

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #901 on: 01/23/2024 03:02 am »
Considering the odds of Starliner surviving past the ISS contract are getting increasingly tenuous, all the CLD providers are looking nervously at a SpaceX monopoly in the short term, which suggests crew dragon by definition will need to fly beyond 2030 for at least a few years.
Why? SpaceX will be trying very hard to crewed Starship operational by then. If they succeed, they have little incentive to try to extend the life of Crew Dragon, and IMO they won't unless NASA insists. There is substantial overlap  between crewed Starship and Starship CLD.

The big unknown for me is the structure of the Commercial Crew Program in the crewed Starship era.

SpaceX would like a lot of things, but getting Starship certified for CCP to ISS/CLD by 2030 may be deemed a risky stance by CLP operators, since they need to lock in launch services (and long lead items) before 2030, probably around 2028 or earlier at a guess. So that's only 4 years, I can understand why some people might want to hedge their bets. SpaceX may be accommodating in that contracting for crew dragon launch services may be transferable to Starship without much penalty in this occurance.

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