Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 993111 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #200 on: 12/21/2017 03:21 pm »
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.

I thought the pacing items was commissioning the in orbit satellites, meaning not before the previous launches satellites are commissioned.

They said they've gotten that under 60 days.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #201 on: 12/23/2017 02:38 am »
Year end archive of the current manifest

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Sites:
      C=the Cape (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS SpX-10LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035.1LCRS SpX-11LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS SpX-12LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-4F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C-39A42
2017-10-09  0537/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10-11  1853/-4F91031.2SSES-11/Echostar 105GTO5200C-39A44
2017-10-30  1534/-4F91042SKoreasat-5AGTO3700C-39A45
2017-12-15  1036/-5F91035.2LCRS SpX-13LEO~10kC-4046
2017-12-22*1727/-8F91036.2XIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E47
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2018-01-04  2000/-5F91043LZumaLEO?C-4048
2018-early (NET)HRNR*LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2018-01-30  1623/-5F9RSGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2018-01-30F9R.PAZ & Microsat 2a/2bSSO1400V-4E.
2018-H1F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2018-03-13F9.LCRS SpX-14LEO~10kC.
2018-03F9N.BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2018-Q1F9R?Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9N.NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-04-14F9N.Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FOPLR~6kV-4E.
2018-04F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-1MEO3880C.
2018-05 (NET)F9..Telkom 4GTO.C.
2018-midH.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06-06F9.LCRS SpX-15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-H1F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-midF9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.CN/A
2018H..Arabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS SpX-16LEO~10kC.
2018-08F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q3F9R.RADARSAT ConstellationSSO~1.5kV-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4 (NET)F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
2019F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC.
2019 (NET)H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS SpX-19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS III-3?MEO3880C.
2019-Q2F9R.AMOS-17GTO5500C(81)
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1GTO~6k+C.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020F9..Türksat 5AGTO3500C.
2020-H2F9..AMOS-8GTO.C(81)
2020-11F9..Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS)LEO1440V-4E.
2020F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?550C(82)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C(85)
2021F9..Türksat 5BGTO4500C.
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
2022 (NET)BFR..MarsTMI.?.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
NET 2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
NET 2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
NET 2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release / Gunter
(81) Spacecom Amos-17, Amos-8 SpaceNews
(82) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter

Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5 / Phase 1A-6

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities


Recent Edits:
Dec 19  Moved GRACE-FO from March to April 14
Dec 18  Added Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in 2020
Dec 14  Moved Telkom 4 from August 2018 to NET May 2018.
Dec 12  The May 2018 GPS mission changed from GPS III-2 to GPS III-1
Nov 24  Moved Bangabandhu from February to March
Nov 12  Moving Hispasat 30W-6 to first half of 2018 as there is much uncertainly about the launch date.
Nov 09  Adding Türksat 5A in 2020 and Türksat 5B in 2021
Oct 19  Moving Iridium NEXT Flight 4 to Dec 22 from late November.  Adding Sentinel-6A in November 2020.
Oct 18  Adding Amos-17 in Q2-2019 and Amos-8 in H2-2020.  Putting most of the Spaceflight Industries flights down in the TBD list at the end until we have a better idea when they will actually fly.  Moved GiSat-1 from 2018-Q4 to 2019.
Oct 14  Added Mystery Payload Codename Zuma in mid-November (this was formerly listed as unknown Northrop Grumman)
Oct 09  PAZ moved to Jan 30 from December.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2017 02:38 am by gongora »

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #202 on: 12/23/2017 05:29 am »
SpaceFab.US apparently has two Waypoint space telescopes manifested as copassengers on SpaceX launches in 2019 and 2020.

Quote
So a little bit of news... I am now part owner of the first company ever to build a commercial space telescope satellite, and this thing can be used by anyone! You can use it for deep space astrophotography, land surveys of the Earth, or even Hyperspectral images of your farmland. We have two slots secured on Space X Falcon 9 rockets in 2019 and 2020 for our first launches! Huge thanks to SpaceFab.US for making me a part of the adventure!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB6XReFIsj/?taken-by=gibsonpics

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #203 on: 12/23/2017 02:04 pm »
SpaceFab.US apparently has two Waypoint space telescopes manifested as copassengers on SpaceX launches in 2019 and 2020.

Quote
So a little bit of news... I am now part owner of the first company ever to build a commercial space telescope satellite, and this thing can be used by anyone! You can use it for deep space astrophotography, land surveys of the Earth, or even Hyperspectral images of your farmland. We have two slots secured on Space X Falcon 9 rockets in 2019 and 2020 for our first launches! Huge thanks to SpaceFab.US for making me a part of the adventure!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB6XReFIsj/?taken-by=gibsonpics

Probably on Spaceflight Industries launches, no? 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #204 on: 12/25/2017 04:19 pm »
Once again there's a launch on both coasts with an NET on the same day (PAZ and GovSat both NET Jan 30th),

(We got close with Iridium 2 and BulgariaSat with both launches moving but not ending up on the same date)

Let's see if these dates hold.

(once upon a time there was a chart showing how accurate SpaceX NET dates hold up from x days out, anyone remember where that was?)

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #205 on: 12/25/2017 04:59 pm »
FWIW, SpaceX's requests for media accred. applications gave NETs of "late January" for both launches. Probably still in flux :)

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #206 on: 12/25/2017 07:20 pm »
(once upon a time there was a chart showing how accurate SpaceX NET dates hold up from x days out, anyone remember where that was?)

It was in the SpaceX Scrubs thread, the one which eventually inspired the most excellent SpaceX Launch Log.  Put together by saliva_sweet.  I kind of doubt that the graph has been kept up to date all this time, but maybe: 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311816#msg1311816
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Offline saliva_sweet

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #207 on: 12/25/2017 08:57 pm »
It was in the SpaceX Scrubs thread, the one which eventually inspired the most excellent SpaceX Launch Log.  Put together by saliva_sweet.  I kind of doubt that the graph has been kept up to date all this time, but maybe: 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311816#msg1311816

Unfortunately I stopped updating the data during the post-CRS-7 hiatus :( I guess the table could be rebuilt from Salo's launch log, but it's a ton of work at this point.

Offline Roy_H

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #208 on: 12/26/2017 06:36 pm »
It was in the SpaceX Scrubs thread, the one which eventually inspired the most excellent SpaceX Launch Log.  Put together by saliva_sweet.  I kind of doubt that the graph has been kept up to date all this time, but maybe: 

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311816#msg1311816

Unfortunately I stopped updating the data during the post-CRS-7 hiatus :( I guess the table could be rebuilt from Salo's launch log, but it's a ton of work at this point.

Not worth the effort. We all know many have been delayed for years and only now is SpaceX making headway on its backlog. The only thing an updated chart would show is that it is getting better.  ;)
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Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #209 on: 12/26/2017 07:09 pm »
OTOH, I found the chart useful in planning vacation travel to Florida: it gave me a rough probability that a launch date would hold, which let me know whether I should try to actively plan around it or just resign myself to the luck of the launch dates.

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #210 on: 12/27/2017 05:54 pm »
For the FH Demo, the date should be 2018-01 NET (multiple SpaceX sources have publicly said January), and the orbit should be either TMI or ESC (Earth escape, if you're pedantic about Mars being there at the other end of TMI).

Also, why is the order of core reuse RNR, while the order of landing location is LLS? Should that not be either RRN/LLS or RNR/LSL, for consistency? I prefer the latter.

Offline bulkmail

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Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #212 on: 12/28/2017 02:51 pm »
Agree about the abbreviation order, it should be consistent, and side/center/side is better than center/side/side or side/side/center
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #213 on: 01/03/2018 02:12 pm »
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???

1746-EX-ST-2017
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1643-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration), and 2) command of landed stage from recovery boat (less than five minutes in duration). All operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393.

0007-EX-ST-2018
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1318-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the TC uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration) 2) experimental uplink testing from the an onshore station at CCAFS during first-stage descent (less than five minutes in duration) Both operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393. Transmitting stations located at Port Canaveral.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #214 on: 01/03/2018 06:56 pm »


It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???

Block 5 flexing its muscles?
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #215 on: 01/03/2018 07:28 pm »
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???

1746-EX-ST-2017
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1643-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the command uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration), and 2) command of landed stage from recovery boat (less than five minutes in duration). All operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393.

0007-EX-ST-2018
Quote
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous application 1318-EX-ST-2017, and covers the experimental first-stage recovery operation following a Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral. This request for authority is limited to two functions: 1) pre-launch checkout test of the TC uplink from an onshore station at CCAFS (less than five minutes in duration) 2) experimental uplink testing from the an onshore station at CCAFS during first-stage descent (less than five minutes in duration) Both operations are pre-coordinated with the launch Range. Launch vehicle flight communications for this mission are covered by a separate STA.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation:    Experimental first-stage recovery operation for Falcon 9 launch of SpaceX Mission 1393. Transmitting stations located at Port Canaveral.

There are 4 launches on the 2018 manifest that could fit the mass/energy, launch site, and date range (Feb-Aug):
Bangabandhu
USAF GPS III-1
Telkom 4
Es'hail 2

Do we know which is 1393?

Offline stcks

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #216 on: 01/03/2018 07:42 pm »
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???


But the location for landing hasn't changed and is still way out in the Atlantic... what am I missing?

Quote
   North  28  19  46   West  74  7  4     Launch vehicle stage 1 landing site

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #217 on: 01/03/2018 08:05 pm »
It looks like SpaceX may have switched Mission 1393 from ASDS to RTLS?  ???


But the location for landing hasn't changed and is still way out in the Atlantic... what am I missing?

Quote
   North  28  19  46   West  74  7  4     Launch vehicle stage 1 landing site
The transmitting location being stated as from an onshore transmitter at CCAFS (in the description section) and dropping the command from the recovery boat sentence.  Maybe those coordinates are a mistake and they didn't get updated?
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Offline stcks

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #218 on: 01/03/2018 08:32 pm »
The transmitting location being stated as from an onshore transmitter at CCAFS (in the description section) and dropping the command from the recovery boat sentence.  Maybe those coordinates are a mistake and they didn't get updated?

Hmm.. weird, I didn't see that. Either the onshore transmitter is magic and works that far away or its a misprint in the application (??). Could it just be an expendable launch and therefore no drone ship?

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #219 on: 01/05/2018 02:29 pm »
The new "SpaceX FPIP" for the New Year :)

The usual disclaimer:
This chart is not an attempt to predict the actual launch dates.
It is an attempt to visualize the current launch PLANS - or the state of our knowledge about launch plans.

Here I made chart for the whole year ahead - which is not difficult for ULA launches as all of them have launch dates penciled. With SpaceX a bunch of flights does not have dates, the order and even launch pad designation are unknown as well. Therefore the chart has pale-green blocks labelled as "2d Q" or "2d H".

But anyway - the chart has 29 (twenty nine  :o ) Falcon flights.
Go SpaceX!!

Edit: Updated chart with new data for SAOCOM
« Last Edit: 01/06/2018 11:53 am by smoliarm »

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