Poll

Are the medium and heavy-lift markets currently (2022) underserved?

no, there are plenty of launch opportunities.
33 (50.8%)
yes, there are not enough launch opportunities.
16 (24.6%)
medium is well-served, heavy is not.
10 (15.4%)
heavy is well-served, medium is not.
6 (9.2%)

Total Members Voted: 65


Author Topic: Are the medium and heavy launch markets currently underserved?  (Read 17698 times)

Offline DanClemmensen

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<snip>
It appears that the economics are driving the small payloads to use ride-share, which allows them to take advantage of the improved economics of the medium launch market. The only remaining small payloads are those that need either a unique orbit or a unique launch time.  That market is probably tiny or is not cost-sensitive.
Reminder that SpaceX change orbital inclination with brute force to a low equatorial orbit for the IXPE spacecraft launching from Florida while under bidding the Pegasus XL. Therefore the market is cost sensitive.
For that matter, NASA chose to launch TROPICS with Astra instead of Rocket Lab also for cost reasons.
I'm not sure why this is relevant to the medium-lift launch market. TROPICS is a set of six 5.5 Kilogram 3U Cubesats (total mass 33 kg). Medium-lift is defined (by NASA, at least) as 2000 kg to 20,000 kg.  The only way TROPICS will fly in a medium-lift launch is either by rideshare or because some medium-lift launcher is ridiculously cheap.compared to the smallsat launchers.

Offline trimeta

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<snip>
It appears that the economics are driving the small payloads to use ride-share, which allows them to take advantage of the improved economics of the medium launch market. The only remaining small payloads are those that need either a unique orbit or a unique launch time.  That market is probably tiny or is not cost-sensitive.
Reminder that SpaceX change orbital inclination with brute force to a low equatorial orbit for the IXPE spacecraft launching from Florida while under bidding the Pegasus XL. Therefore the market is cost sensitive.
For that matter, NASA chose to launch TROPICS with Astra instead of Rocket Lab also for cost reasons.
I'm not sure why this is relevant to the medium-lift launch market. TROPICS is a set of six 5.5 Kilogram 3U Cubesats (total mass 33 kg). Medium-lift is defined (by NASA, at least) as 2000 kg to 20,000 kg.  The only way TROPICS will fly in a medium-lift launch is either by rideshare or because some medium-lift launcher is ridiculously cheap.compared to the smallsat launchers.
You're the one who brought up "small payloads," and the corresponding small-lift launch market for "those that need either a unique orbit or a unique launch time."

Offline DanClemmensen

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<snip>
It appears that the economics are driving the small payloads to use ride-share, which allows them to take advantage of the improved economics of the medium launch market. The only remaining small payloads are those that need either a unique orbit or a unique launch time.  That market is probably tiny or is not cost-sensitive.
Reminder that SpaceX change orbital inclination with brute force to a low equatorial orbit for the IXPE spacecraft launching from Florida while under bidding the Pegasus XL. Therefore the market is cost sensitive.
For that matter, NASA chose to launch TROPICS with Astra instead of Rocket Lab also for cost reasons.
I'm not sure why this is relevant to the medium-lift launch market. TROPICS is a set of six 5.5 Kilogram 3U Cubesats (total mass 33 kg). Medium-lift is defined (by NASA, at least) as 2000 kg to 20,000 kg.  The only way TROPICS will fly in a medium-lift launch is either by rideshare or because some medium-lift launcher is ridiculously cheap.compared to the smallsat launchers.
You're the one who brought up "small payloads," and the corresponding small-lift launch market for "those that need either a unique orbit or a unique launch time."
I did indeed. I feel that they are relevant to the medium and heavy markets only in the context of rideshare. I'm sorry that I did not make this clear.

Offline Robotbeat

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Falcon 9 is basically the only western launcher in this class with a high enough launch rate to matter right now.

From a capacity standpoint, Falcon 9 can mostly handle it due to being reusable. But there’s little redundancy at the launch rates megaconstellations need. There’s a ton of launchers in the pipeline to solve this, tho.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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