ITS will be too big for many payloads. My guess is after SpaceX is happy with ITS, they'll start working on a smaller ITS derived system to replace F9/FH. Fully reusable in a more reasonable size for satellites.
I assume SpaceX has a plan for when it'll retire F9.
What kind of timeline can we speculate for F9?
does F9 have a use after ITS becomes operational?
Assuming they keep to their current notional timeline, they'll have to convert one of their launch facilities for ITS by ~2020 for their "orbital testing" phase (as shown in the Mars presentation slides). so one less F9 pad.
They'll also need a factory near that pad for the booster around that time. Do they move tooling to the new facility, or build a new f9-class launcher using the ITS tooling? Or does ITS replace F9/H outright?
Quote from: RonM on 03/28/2017 08:51 pmITS will be too big for many payloads. My guess is after SpaceX is happy with ITS, they'll start working on a smaller ITS derived system to replace F9/FH. Fully reusable in a more reasonable size for satellites.There's no such thing as "too big". You mean "too expensive". If an ITS launch is cheaper than a Falcon launch, why would anyone buy the Falcon ride?
Quote from: envy887 on 03/28/2017 08:59 pmQuote from: RonM on 03/28/2017 08:51 pmITS will be too big for many payloads. My guess is after SpaceX is happy with ITS, they'll start working on a smaller ITS derived system to replace F9/FH. Fully reusable in a more reasonable size for satellites.There's no such thing as "too big". You mean "too expensive". If an ITS launch is cheaper than a Falcon launch, why would anyone buy the Falcon ride?That would be great if an ITS launch was cheaper than a Falcon launch. If SpaceX can pull that off it would still make sense to build a smaller ITS derived vehicle for smaller payloads. When you go pick up groceries, do you take the car or an eighteen-wheeler?
There's no such thing as "too big". You mean "too expensive". If an ITS launch is cheaper than a Falcon launch,
Personaly. 15 years untill old faithful becomes obsolete.
Wings?
There's no such thing as "too big". You mean "too expensive". If an ITS launch is cheaper than a Falcon launch, why would anyone buy the Falcon ride?
The space-plane concept still has legs. Despite setbacks and its cost, the STS program flew for 30 years.With companies who have demonstrated reusability by returning rocket cores, imagine what they might do in generating innovations to create a truly affordable, fast-turnaround fully-reusable space-plane.
Quote from: envy887 on 03/28/2017 08:59 pmThere's no such thing as "too big". You mean "too expensive". If an ITS launch is cheaper than a Falcon launch, why would anyone buy the Falcon ride?That PoV demonstrates yet again how the ICBM architecture has warped space launch.In every other transport mode except space launch there is the idea of a "right size" for a vehicle to carry a load and what that vehicle should carry.This is why long distance coaches don't carry swimming pools . This is why you could use a panel truck with a pallet load of seats as an SUV people don't. Only in space launch (where you're going to throw away the vehicle anyway) is bigger always viewed as better. As long as throwing away most, if not all, of the vehicle is the norm this will continue.
Quote from: MattMason on 03/29/2017 05:06 amThe space-plane concept still has legs. Despite setbacks and its cost, the STS program flew for 30 years.With companies who have demonstrated reusability by returning rocket cores, imagine what they might do in generating innovations to create a truly affordable, fast-turnaround fully-reusable space-plane.That's easy.Nothing. Musk want's to settle Mars and be the goto guy for transport to everywhere else in the solar system. Those two goals rule out any interest in winged vehicles, despite such a system (with a suitable engine) likely to be able to deliver the cheapest overall cost to orbit. SX is a company that has been built from the ground up to push what is possible with VTO TSTO. They hope their next vehicle will achieve full reusability in this architecture. They have no interest in winged vehicles and while Musk remains in control I strongly doubt they ever will.