WHJS & Jishu Shiyan 03 - CZ-12 (Y1) - Hainan - November 30, 2024 (14:25 UTC)

[TheKutKu]

"Successful Completion of Propellant Filling and Training for the First Flight Mission of Long March 12"

"Propellant filling and training successfully completed!" On the evening of October 14, at 7:00 p.m., in the No. 2 control hall of the Test and Launch Control Building at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, Yang Tianliang, Party Secretary and Chairman of Hainan International Commercial Space Launch Co., Ltd., proudly announced the news. As soon as he finished speaking, applause erupted in the hall, marking that the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, from its facilities to its team, is now fully capable of executing launch missions. The tireless efforts of more than two years have finally paid off.

Since the training mission started on July 21, Hainan Commercial Launch has mobilized the entire company, following high standards and strict requirements according to the training outline and the test-launch process. Over the course of nearly three months, all testing projects in both the technical and launch areas were completed. Despite the severe impact of the super typhoon "Yagi" during this period, both the new launch site and the new team withstood the challenges and steadily advanced the training mission. Notably, on October 13 and 14, the team successfully completed the propellant filling and launch procedures, including a 24-hour delay and a subsequent re-fill and launch procedure, demonstrating the team's efficient coordination and resilience.

Yan Liqing, the Chief Commander of the No. 2 launch pad at Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, introduced that during this filling and training, multiple systems and units involved in the mission demonstrated high levels of collaboration and teamwork. After two days of intense work, all test data were excellent, achieving the goal of fully testing system interfaces, information interaction, testing and launch processes, coordination, personnel capabilities, support capabilities, and organizational command modes. (Hainan Commercial Launch)

CZ-12 underwent a double WDR, with a simulated scrub and 24h recycle. The launch pad is operational after the light damage it sustained due to the hurricane.

[PM3]

Is "Nov-Dec 2024" just guesswork, or is the any official or inofficial launch schedule?

[mikezang]

Is "Nov-Dec 2024" just guesswork, or is the any official or inofficial launch schedule?

It is said the launch will be on November 30.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Is "Nov-Dec 2024" just guesswork, or is the any official or inofficial launch schedule?

IIRC, the last time an explicit 2024 launch target was mentioned was around the August timeframe. However with the final dress rehearsal completed there isn't much that is stopping this launch from happening before the end of the year.

Maybe you can wait for a few days to see what's being mentioned about the CZ-12 at the Zhuhai Airshow due in 2 days, with its model being exhibited along with SAST's upcoming methane powered reusable launch vehicle (grouped into the same series as "CZ-12B").

[mikezang]

The NOTAM for CZ-12 from Hainan.

[Liss]

Well, it is not proven that the area B5123/24 is for the maiden CZ-12 launch.
Alternatively, we do remember about a CZ-5B in pre-launch testing at Wenchang, and the distance matches the 2022 CZ-5B launches, more or less.

[mikezang]

Well, it is not proven that the area B5123/24 is for the maiden CZ-12 launch.
Alternatively, we do remember about a CZ-5B in pre-launch testing at Wenchang, and the distance matches the 2022 CZ-5B launches, more or less.

That is maiden so that you don't have drop zone historiy records, this is for CZ-12 because Hainan is selling tickets for watching the ceremony. Anyway, wait and see.

[TheKutKu]

Well, it is not proven that the area B5123/24 is for the maiden CZ-12 launch.
Alternatively, we do remember about a CZ-5B in pre-launch testing at Wenchang, and the distance matches the 2022 CZ-5B launches, more or less.

Latest NOTMAR has  coordinates of the launch centered on HICAL LC#2; it's CZ-12.

[mikezang]

长征十二号遥一运载火箭成功转场

The Long March 12 Yao-1 carrier rocket was successfully transferred

On the morning of November 26, the Long March 12 Yao-1 carrier rocket was successfully transferred from the technical area to the launch area at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Center and will be launched at an appropriate time in the near future.

[PM3]

The NOTAM for CZ-12 from Hainan.

Launch window 12:00 to 16:00 UTC. What is the source for ~13:20 in the thread title?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

The NOTAM for CZ-12 from Hainan.

Launch window 12:00 to 16:00 UTC. What is the source for ~13:20 in the thread title?

Well, it is not proven that the area B5123/24 is for the maiden CZ-12 launch.
Alternatively, we do remember about a CZ-5B in pre-launch testing at Wenchang, and the distance matches the 2022 CZ-5B launches, more or less.

Latest NOTMAR has  coordinates of the launch centered on HICAL LC#2; it's CZ-12.

This marine navigation warning centered at the launch pad gives 13:30 - 16:30 UTC. Combining the two would give 13:30 - 16:00.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[Alter Sachse]

"Long March 12 has been transferred to launchpad No. 1 at Hainan Commercial Spaceport. Maiden launch is imminent."

[mikezang]

The NOTAM updated!

[Brigantine]

What's the advantage of CZ-12 over CZ-7?

Is the capability higher? (no, except maybe fairing diameter?)
Is it cheaper? (not via re-usability, but perhaps via fewer engines & less complexity?)
Is it easier to get man-rated?
Is it just a test bed for CZ-10 hardware?

[hextreme]

What's the advantage of CZ-12 over CZ-7?

Is the capability higher? (no, except maybe fairing diameter?)
Is it cheaper? (not via re-usability, but perhaps via fewer engines & less complexity?)
Is it easier to get man-rated?
Is it just a test bed for CZ-10 hardware?

CZ-12 is definitely cheaper.

CZ-7 is already a human-rated rocket. It was originally designed to replaced CZ-2F. But eventually it is used to launch Tianzhou cargo ships only. Still, it is built with very high reliability, which makes it more expensive than those similar rockets designed for commercial launches.

[tangdou8]

What's the advantage of CZ-12 over CZ-7?

Is the capability higher? (no, except maybe fairing diameter?)
Is it cheaper? (not via re-usability, but perhaps via fewer engines & less complexity?)
Is it easier to get man-rated?
Is it just a test bed for CZ-10 hardware?

1. I believe 5.2 m diameter fairing is a requirement for launching GW constellation.
2. A lot cheaper. CZ-12 is also considerably more efficient (lift-off mass is 433t vs 597t with similar capability) and requires less time for preparation.
3. No, it is a commercial rocket designed to be affordable for launching the constellation.
The only man-rated new generation launcher is LM-10A and LM-10. 10A will replace CZ-7 in launching Tianzhou (reusable LEO@CSS orbit > 14t).
4. The CZ-12 1st stage was the failed proposal from SAST when bidding for CZ-10. SAST converted that failed proposal into this commercial launcher. The entire CZ-12 fleets are unrelated.
It can be treated as an in-flight testbed for YF-100K but will launch frequently. It is also a testbed for 3.8m diameter rocket production as well as new alloys used in tank production.
You might get confused when comparing CZ-12, 12A, and 12B in the coming years. Three completely different rockets under the same name.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

What's the advantage of CZ-12 over CZ-7?

Is the capability higher? (no, except maybe fairing diameter?)
Is it cheaper? (not via re-usability, but perhaps via fewer engines & less complexity?)
Is it easier to get man-rated?
Is it just a test bed for CZ-10 hardware?

1. I believe 5.2 m diameter fairing is a requirement for launching GW constellation.
2. A lot cheaper. CZ-12 is also considerably more efficient (lift-off mass is 433t vs 597t with similar capability) and requires less time for preparation.
3. No, it is a commercial rocket designed to be affordable for launching the constellation.
The only man-rated new generation launcher is LM-10A and LM-10. 10A will replace CZ-7 in launching Tianzhou (reusable LEO@CSS orbit > 14t).
4. It is an in-flight testbed for YF-100K but will launch frequently. It is also a testbed for 3.8m diameter rocket production as well as new alloys used in tank production.

I think the bigger question is how does the LM-12/LM-12A/LM-12B situation develops, plus the slightly smaller but still well within same market's LM-6A - all 4 of these are from SAST themselves and I just cannot see them developing and flying more than 2 of them at the same time, never mind all 4. Why are they doing the -12 when the reusable -12A/B is on the near horizon? Why are they talking about 3 completely different Long March 12 variants at the same time? And are they going to replace the not-so-cheap-looking LM-6A with them soon?

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1856255614961258945

Possible three versions of CZ-12.
CZ-12: 4 YF100(?) /3.8m diameter/Kerosene
CZ-12A: 7 Longyun /3.8m diameter/Methane/Recoverable
CZ-12B: 9 YF-102R /4.2m diameter/Kerosene/Recoverable.
pics via https://weibo.com/6065432153/OFUseuTuo

[TheKutKu]

It can be treated as an in-flight testbed for YF-100K but will launch frequently. It is also a testbed for 3.8m diameter rocket production as well as new alloys used in tank production.

I personally doubt it
-It is a largely new launcher on a new launch pad, the ramp up will take time
-It is a commercial launcher with no particular dedicated/exclusive payload that will face intense competition against over a dozen existing ELVs and near future RLVs
-It will share the HICAL LCC#2 with several other companies, there are no indications that it will be launched from any other pad.
-SAST is working on 4m class Reusable launchers, which as far as we know will be in CZ-12's payload class and will at least use the same pad.
-YF-100K production will soon be used for the CZ-10 (A lunar landing needs 12 CZ-12 worth of YF-100K).

It must be remembered that CZ-12 was originally meant to fly in 2023, the 1+ year delay seems to have been largely  caused by delays in the construction of the HICAL Launch pads. It isn't impossible that this delay will severely restrict its commercial prospects.

I think the bigger question is how does the LM-12/LM-12A/LM-12B situation develops, plus the slightly smaller but still well within same market's LM-6A - all 4 of these are from SAST themselves and I just cannot see them developing and flying more than 2 of them at the same time, never mind all 4. Why are they doing the -12 when the reusable -12A/B is on the near horizon? Why are they talking about 3 completely different Long March 12 variants at the same time? And are they going to replace the not-so-cheap-looking LM-6A with them soon?

Possible three versions of CZ-12.
CZ-12: 4 YF100(?) /3.8m diameter/Kerosene
CZ-12A: 7 Longyun /3.8m diameter/Methane/Recoverable
CZ-12B: 9 YF-102R /4.2m diameter/Kerosene/Recoverable.
pics via https://weibo.com/6065432153/OFUseuTuo

[/quote]

Of course this may already be obsolete, based on the some of the latest rumors...
Let's hope that clarification comes in the near future, maybe after a succesful CZ-12 launch, or after the near-space test of SAST's VTVL, which according to rumors is still planned for this year...



Anyway, latest informations is that CZ-12 with the 5.2m fairing is 62m long, making it the second tallest Chinese LV (for now) after the Long-fairing CZ-5 that flew earlier this year.

[tangdou8]

What's the advantage of CZ-12 over CZ-7?

Is the capability higher? (no, except maybe fairing diameter?)
Is it cheaper? (not via re-usability, but perhaps via fewer engines & less complexity?)
Is it easier to get man-rated?
Is it just a test bed for CZ-10 hardware?

1. I believe 5.2 m diameter fairing is a requirement for launching GW constellation.
2. A lot cheaper. CZ-12 is also considerably more efficient (lift-off mass is 433t vs 597t with similar capability) and requires less time for preparation.
3. No, it is a commercial rocket designed to be affordable for launching the constellation.
The only man-rated new generation launcher is LM-10A and LM-10. 10A will replace CZ-7 in launching Tianzhou (reusable LEO@CSS orbit > 14t).
4. It is an in-flight testbed for YF-100K but will launch frequently. It is also a testbed for 3.8m diameter rocket production as well as new alloys used in tank production.

I think the bigger question is how does the LM-12/LM-12A/LM-12B situation develops, plus the slightly smaller but still well within same market's LM-6A - all 4 of these are from SAST themselves and I just cannot see them developing and flying more than 2 of them at the same time, never mind all 4. Why are they doing the -12 when the reusable -12A/B is on the near horizon? Why are they talking about 3 completely different Long March 12 variants at the same time? And are they going to replace the not-so-cheap-looking LM-6A with them soon?

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1856255614961258945

Possible three versions of CZ-12.
CZ-12: 4 YF100(?) /3.8m diameter/Kerosene
CZ-12A: 7 Longyun /3.8m diameter/Methane/Recoverable
CZ-12B: 9 YF-102R /4.2m diameter/Kerosene/Recoverable.
pics via https://weibo.com/6065432153/OFUseuTuo

1. I believe that "not-so-cheap-looking LM-6A" is incorrect. Rumors are that the CZ-6A has an incredibly low per-kilo launch cost.
2. Personally, I think the LM-12/LM-12A/LM-12B situation reflects how SAST shifted from following Russian design (CZ-12 and old SAST's propsal for CZ-10) to a Falcon-9 style design.
3. The 12A/12B situation is a result of CZ-12A's limited reusable capability, which cannot meet growing market demands for higher launch capability in the future (2027+), as well as a lack of engine Merlin 1D equivalent options (the only available equivalent is the TH-12 from Space Pioneer; the YF-102R is still in development yet) when they decided to develop 12A.
4. I think 12B is SAST's answer to competitors in the private sector (Tianlong-3 reusbale; ZQ-3E should also be able to fly by 2027).