Predictions for Starship IFT-3

[MDMoery]

Time to start a IFT-4 prediction thread.

IFT-2 -> IFT-3 was 4 months.  My out of the gate prediction for IFT-4 is 1st week in June.

I am going with late June for a purely non-scientific reason:  So far we are tracking the pace of the first Space Shuttle flights.

STS-1: 04-12-1981 --- IFT-1  04-20-2023
STS-2: 11-12-1981 --- IFT-2  11-18-2024
STS-3: 03-22-1982 --- IFT-3  03-14-2024
STS-4: 06-27-1982 --- IFT-4  ?? Late June 2024

[meekGee]

I predict ITF-4 in a month.

Quite possibly this time around just maybe the FAA will be the bottleneck.

I'd go with 1 month as the desirement, but 60 days until ignition.  So mid May.

Bigger question is - how many flights this year. 6 more?

[Kspbutitscursed]

may 14 anyone?

[Metalskin]

I predict ITF-4 in a month.

Quite possibly this time around just maybe the FAA will be the bottleneck.

I'd go with 1 month as the desirement, but 60 days until ignition.  So mid May.

Bigger question is - how many flights this year. 6 more?

I think it comes down to lessons learned and if new lessons can be learnt from already locked in built hardware. Hopefully there are no biggies and they can get data from the next five or six. I would love to see another five flights this year. I suspect there will be three to four.

[winkhomewinkhome]

may 14 anyone?

Should we be aiming for May the 4th? 

[Kspbutitscursed]

may 14 anyone?

Should we be aiming for May the 4th? 

True, but its 61 days since IFT-3

[Callmeishmael]

I will guess early to mid May.  I don't think that the FAA will be a holdup, they will just time for the normal testing and upgrades based on IFT-3's performance.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Thread for when IFT-4 happens is: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60544.0

Results and consequences of IFT-3 belong in the IFT-3 discussion thread.

I think this thread has served its purpose, so locking.