First time posting on NSF, so hello everyone! Here’s my predictions:Flight Pairing: S28/B10Launch Date: late January, early February 2024Mission Success Chance: Successful hot staging, but late RUD of super heavy during boostback or landing. Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.I may be completely wrong as well, but we shall see! Looking forward to this launch though!
Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread
Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.
Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI. Anyways, here are my predictions:Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle.
Don't know if this is the right place to ask this, but I figured I'd ask here since a lot of people have been predicting about it. Do we know what material the TPS is made of? Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there? I don't know how hot the surface behind the TPS gets, but COE mismatch is a big deal for mounting composite components to metal surfaces.Again, don't know if this is the right place to ask. If someone has already answered this somewhere else on the forum, please redirect me! I can also delete this post if it's in the wrong place.
Do we know what material the TPS is made of?
Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there?
Quote from: Ke8ort on 12/05/2023 01:47 pmDon't know if this is the right place to ask this, but I figured I'd ask here since a lot of people have been predicting about it. Do we know what material the TPS is made of? Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there? I don't know how hot the surface behind the TPS gets, but COE mismatch is a big deal for mounting composite components to metal surfaces.Again, don't know if this is the right place to ask. If someone has already answered this somewhere else on the forum, please redirect me! I can also delete this post if it's in the wrong place.https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50748.msg2543885#newQuoteDo we know what material the TPS is made of?Asked and answered multiple times on that thread. A bit of tedious reading I'm afraid.QuoteAre there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there?That sounds like a new question (I think, not sure what a mold line is on a Starship), you should ask it on that thread
Made my predictions.I think IFT-3 will improve on the flight profile. I think the booster will be mostly successful with a boostback and landing burn. Maybe off trajectory at most.Starship will make a successful trajectory through a full burn. But will fail during re-entry.I predicted February for the flight as I think there could be some time required to make adjustments to the Ship from what is learned from IFT-2.
Put my entry in the spreadsheet as well, but I predict; Launch in first half of January, Booster boostback burn works this time, 20% chance of failure at booster landing burnShip makes it to (quasi) orbit, gets to Hawaii, has some combination of burnthrough and control issues on reentry and does not survive intact to splashdown. I would still consider this a success so they can get data on boostback and reentry. If all they can do is reuse the booster in 2-3 more test flights and control the Starship in orbit and deorbit so it is safe, they can do what they need for HLS without a problem even without reuse.
I'm not sure of the ships or the timeline, but I predict complete failure. It will clear the tower, but will RUD about 1min 30sec into flight.Source: I'm from the future.
Launch date: 15. April 2024Outcome: successful full burn of Starship and target "orbit", booster lasts longer than previously but is destroyed before water landing, ship destroyed before attempted landingEdit: in other words after this launch, they would be able to put a space station with volume of the ISS to LEO
Quote from: baddux on 12/06/2023 12:03 amLaunch date: 15. April 2024Outcome: successful full burn of Starship and target "orbit", booster lasts longer than previously but is destroyed before water landing, ship destroyed before attempted landingEdit: in other words after this launch, they would be able to put a space station with volume of the ISS to LEONo offense, but this is a crazy guess. If you're going into April it would no doubt be April 20th.
I’m gonna wait until the end of December to make predictions. I want to see some word about the mishap report so I get some feeling on where they are in fixing everything.
I think they will master Super Heavy on the next flight, and will have figured out the issue causing the RUD on Flight 2. It's Starship that's going to be the problem child. Everything from determining why it failed to get to orbit, then flying it through an Hypersonic regime on reentry, then landing on target. None of the landing tests they did with Starship went supersonic. And that's the easy part compared to what comes next.
Aren't they changing the way they attach the tiles for this particular ship? For me, I am no more capable of predicting the outcome than I am prophecy, so I will only say I believe they will correct the issues that caused the loss of the IFT-2 vehicles. What new issues may bedevil them, I can't say, but I'm hopeful that the outcome will be progress in the right direction.
Flight Pairing: S28/B10Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time. Mission Success Chance:%100One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.
Quote from: matthewkantar on 12/10/2023 07:47 pmFlight Pairing: S28/B10Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time. Mission Success Chance:%100One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful. Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.I appreciate the 100% prediction though.
Quote from: JohnsterSpaceProgram on 12/05/2023 12:17 amSince it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI. Anyways, here are my predictions:Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle. And here's my prediction on what the testing and work flow could end up being like for Booster 10 and Ship 28 for the testing that remains ahead of launch (this would be in the best case scenario, where no major issues occur during either vehicle's test campaigns):Ship 28's work is completed >>> S28 rolls out and is installed on the suborbital pad for static fire testing >>> Booster 10's work is completed >>> B10 rolls out and is installed on the orbital launch mount for static fire testing >>> S28 completes a 6 engine spin prime & static fire not long after B10's installation on the OLM >>> B10 completes a 33 engine spin prime & static fire not long after S28's static fire >>> S28 is removed from the suborbital pad, any needed work following the static fire is completed, and the ship is then moved over to the orbital launch site, followed by the stacking of S28 on B10 for the first time >>> The B10 & S28 full stack complete a wet dress rehearsal >>> S28 is destacked from B10 and any needed work is completed while waiting for a launch license >>> Following the approval of a launch license, a target launch date is announced followed by the arming of the FTS on both vehicles not long afterwards >>> Shortly before the first launch attempt, S28 and B10 and stacked for the last time ahead of that attempt >>> The launch of IFT-3 either occurs on the first attempt, or is scrubbed to a later date.Seeing how IFT-2 launched on the first attempt, I wouldn't be surprised if that is also the case for IFT-3. I would also like to see your predictions for what you think the testing & work flow for both vehicles could end up being like.
Remember it took them a number of attempts before SS could do a flip and burn......
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 12/10/2023 09:42 pmQuote from: matthewkantar on 12/10/2023 07:47 pmFlight Pairing: S28/B10Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time. Mission Success Chance:%100One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful. Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.I appreciate the 100% prediction though.I don’t think the term “success” would apply to a future flight that falls shorter than its predecessors.Did you think Falcon 1 Flight 3 was another success even after Flight 2 nearly reached orbit?
Quote from: ZachS09 on 12/11/2023 11:53 amQuote from: wannamoonbase on 12/10/2023 09:42 pmQuote from: matthewkantar on 12/10/2023 07:47 pmFlight Pairing: S28/B10Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time. Mission Success Chance:%100One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful. Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.I appreciate the 100% prediction though.I don’t think the term “success” would apply to a future flight that falls shorter than its predecessors.Did you think Falcon 1 Flight 3 was another success even after Flight 2 nearly reached orbit?It's all about uncovering failure modes.The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.
It's all about uncovering failure modes.The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.
Quote from: litton4 on 12/17/2023 04:38 pmIt's all about uncovering failure modes.The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.Concur, with a major caveat. If B10 or S28 fail and the cause of the failure was something introduced by changes intended to fix a B9 or S25 failure mode, this is churn rather than progress.
....even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.
...even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok...
...failures, that don't achieve their primary goal, can still be valuable if they learn something.
It is a test article.Every new data is a sort of success.
If I fix my car by replacing a failed alternator, and then I break down because of a loose wire on the new alternator, I've still progressed compared to the original state (dead alternator).
My guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.
Quote from: Oersted on 12/26/2023 06:47 pmMy guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.What will be different about the launch profile that will allow that to happen?
Until they get a handle on the engine relighting/staying lit issue, then the criticism of churn remains valid.
There will be several engines out on the booster again from launch, or soon thereafter. Won't make separation again. Basically a repeat of ift-1 albeit with less drama on the ground.
Quote from: baikonur on 12/27/2023 02:25 pmThere will be several engines out on the booster again from launch, or soon thereafter. Won't make separation again. Basically a repeat of ift-1 albeit with less drama on the ground.Are you forgetting IFT-2 or are you predicting several steps backwards?
So I predict for IFT-3 we will see a thrust bump from the booster after separation, right when the second stage exhaust hits it full blast. But they will be careful to avoid re-contact.
Quote from: LouScheffer on 12/31/2023 12:26 amSo I predict for IFT-3 we will see a thrust bump from the booster after separation, right when the second stage exhaust hits it full blast. But they will be careful to avoid re-contact.I'm still wondering whether the booster was pushed over by the impinging exhaust faster than they designed for. If you're correct, a thrusting booster might counteract the sideways force on it from the ship. It may go higher and to the side of the receding ship before it makes the turn for boostback.
There's a forecasting competition where you can predict when / if the third Starship integrated test flight happens: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/).
I'll go super optimistic on this oneLaunch: last week of January 2024Ships: S28/10Mission: Suborbital path, test satellite deployment, fluid transfer between tanksWhat will happen: Successful launch, hot staging, boost-back, target trajectory hit, fluid transfers, satellite deploys, booster soft-lands in gulf, starship survives re-entry, hard landing in the middle of the pacific.
Time to start a IFT-4 prediction thread.IFT-2 -> IFT-3 was 4 months. My out of the gate prediction for IFT-4 is 1st week in June.
I predict ITF-4 in a month.
Quote from: Oersted on 03/14/2024 03:17 pmI predict ITF-4 in a month.Quite possibly this time around just maybe the FAA will be the bottleneck.I'd go with 1 month as the desirement, but 60 days until ignition. So mid May.Bigger question is - how many flights this year. 6 more?
may 14 anyone?
Quote from: Kspbutitscursed on 03/14/2024 09:17 pmmay 14 anyone?Should we be aiming for May the 4th?
