Author Topic: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement  (Read 336435 times)

Offline Namechange User

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #580 on: 04/07/2011 06:07 pm »
I can't blame Elon for being proud of this inevitable accomplishment and I am looking forward to seeing all of the new payloads that will be developed to take advantage of these "everyday low prices!".

Inevitable?

In addition to Jim's accurate question, so it's ok for SpaceX to develop a rocket without "PAYLOADS!" but not to begin work on SLS?  Curious.  The double standard at play is interesting. 
Who is paying for SpaceX's Falcon Heavy? Answer: Either SpaceX or customers with payloads for it. Who is paying for SLS? Me.

Little dramatic don't you think?  So what you are saying is there is a double standard.  Interesting still. 

How is there a double standard? SpaceX is not charging me for Falcon Heavy, NASA is charging me for SLS. Thus Robotbeat is unconcerned about the former (none of his business) and is about the latter (he has ownership in NASA's activities as he pays for them). Seems simple enough.

Because the rationale being used should apply equally.  It's the "business case".  If one claims it is irrational to develop a rocket without payloads, it doesn't really matter where the money supposedly comes from.  Given the "PAYLOADS!" arguement and the angle that has been presented over the last several months with respect to that, to me it clearly seems like a double standard.

If you are sooooo concerned about your contribution to SLS, I'll pay your ~30 cent amount this year.  Or if it offends you so, perhaps you could do something else about it instead of whining here.  Here are some examples:

1.  Write your congressman or senator.
2.  Run for office yourself.
3.  Refuse to pay taxes.
4.  Form a mob and protest in the streets.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #581 on: 04/07/2011 06:14 pm »
If Falcon Heavy was only economical for ~50 ton payloads, I would very much agree that it has no payloads and is irrational.

SpaceX still has to prove they can launch Falcon Heavy for the price they quoted, but it still seems to be economically viable for large comm sats to GTO, thus it has payloads.
« Last Edit: 04/07/2011 06:15 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Giovanni DS

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #582 on: 04/07/2011 06:19 pm »
IMHO the biggest difference is that FH will have a strong commonality with something that is flying and will keep flying regardless FH, it could survive a low launch rate, SLS must be kept flying to survive and has commonality with nothing.

This is a bigger difference than just cost.

Edit:typo.
« Last Edit: 04/07/2011 06:21 pm by Giovanni DS »

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #583 on: 04/07/2011 06:22 pm »
If Falcon Heavy was only economical for ~50 ton payloads, I would very much agree that it has no payloads and is irrational.

SpaceX still has to prove they can launch Falcon Heavy for the price they quoted, but it still seems to be economically viable for large comm sats to GTO, thus it has payloads.

Are you contradicting yourself there?  So you would agree that it is irrational but by invoking a nebulous statement about "large comm sats" then it makes it ok?

By the way, yesterday you said Orion was a payload.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=24715.msg719876#msg719876
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Offline Danderman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #584 on: 04/07/2011 06:23 pm »
Here's why I don't think the 53 mt to LEO version is around the corner. On the left is the "standard" 55m high version, on the right my impression of the 69m version (which would support the specified propellant load, 1st stages having almost a 50% stretch). Decide for yourself which one you actually see in the video and artwork.

Please don't pollute this threads with facts or data.

BTW, it would be interesting to show a Zenit in there, to scale. Zenit has a 4 meter diameter, compared with the 3 meters of Falcon. Clearly, Falcon was not designed for these kinds of loads.

I would bet money that the stretched Falcon as you have shown will *never* fly and that the announcement by Elon was intended to inject FUD into the Congressional Launch Vehicle debate. This is not to say that Elon won't try to launch a Falcon with strap-ons, I just don't think that 50 tons is in the cards until and unless Raptor and/or Merlin 2 are available.

Offline Danderman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #585 on: 04/07/2011 06:24 pm »
If Falcon Heavy was only economical for ~50 ton payloads, I would very much agree that it has no payloads and is irrational.

SpaceX still has to prove they can launch Falcon Heavy for the price they quoted, but it still seems to be economically viable for large comm sats to GTO, thus it has payloads.

The obvious application is for dual launch of large, but existing, comsats.

I would hate to have to pay the insurance for that.

Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #586 on: 04/07/2011 06:27 pm »
Here's why I don't think the 53 mt to LEO version is around the corner. On the left is the "standard" 55m high version, on the right my impression of the 69m version (which would support the specified propellant load, 1st stages having almost a 50% stretch). Decide for yourself which one you actually see in the video and artwork.

Please don't pollute this threads with facts or data.

BTW, it would be interesting to show a Zenit in there, to scale. Zenit has a 4 meter diameter, compared with the 3 meters of Falcon. Clearly, Falcon was not designed for these kinds of loads.

I would bet money that the stretched Falcon as you have shown will *never* fly and that the announcement by Elon was intended to inject FUD into the Congressional Launch Vehicle debate. This is not to say that Elon won't try to launch a Falcon with strap-ons, I just don't think that 50 tons is in the cards until and unless Raptor and/or Merlin 2 are available.


I wouldn't count on that philosophy as relates to SpaceX Danderman.

So far SpaceX has built every vehicle they have announced except the Falcon5 which evolved into the F9.  Based on their performance so far, if they do skip the FH, it will be for something MORE capable, not less.
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #587 on: 04/07/2011 06:28 pm »

This is not to say that Elon won't try to launch a Falcon with strap-ons, I just don't think that 50 tons is in the cards until and unless Raptor and/or Merlin 2 are available.

I think with Heavy going full steam ahead (along with a Vandenberg pad and Merlin-1D) leaves little room to work on Raptor or Merlin 2. Since Merlin 1D has not flow and is critical (along with crossfeed) to reach the 53mt mark, I see it being the long pole in the tent.
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Offline neilh

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #588 on: 04/07/2011 06:29 pm »
If Falcon Heavy was only economical for ~50 ton payloads, I would very much agree that it has no payloads and is irrational.

SpaceX still has to prove they can launch Falcon Heavy for the price they quoted, but it still seems to be economically viable for large comm sats to GTO, thus it has payloads.

Are you contradicting yourself there?  So you would agree that it is irrational but by invoking a nebulous statement about "large comm sats" then it makes it ok?

Erm, yes, there's an existing market of large comm sats in the 10-30mt range. Many of these launch every year on rockets that cost more than the FH. We've been over this already.

If the FH were more expensive than existing rockets, there would be a contradiction. The FH is not more expensive than existing rockets in this class.
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Offline pummuf

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #589 on: 04/07/2011 06:32 pm »
You know that $1000/lb to LEO really is starting to bug me...

With time, SpaceX will charge whatever the market will bear.

If they mange to keep costs down, establish a good record and gain market share - and those are Big 'ifs' - they'll still eventually charge whatever the market will bear.

Hypothetically, what if Elon runs the company for the next ten years and can launch for 1/2 the price of his competitors. And what if he chooses to do this out of the kindness of his heart ... What do you think his investors would have to say about it?

« Last Edit: 04/07/2011 06:34 pm by pummuf »

Offline Downix

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #590 on: 04/07/2011 06:35 pm »
IMHO the biggest difference is that FH will have a strong commonality with something that is flying and will keep flying regardless FH, it could survive a low launch rate, SLS must be kept flying to survive and has commonality with nothing.

This is a bigger difference than just cost.

Edit:typo.
Lot of assumptions when the final SLS design is not yet known.  There are proposals which do have commonality with things which are flying.
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Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #591 on: 04/07/2011 06:37 pm »
You know that $1000/lb to LEO really is starting to bug me...

With time, SpaceX will charge whatever the market will bear.

If they mange to keep costs down, establish a good record and gain market share - and those are Big 'ifs' - they'll still eventually charge whatever the market will bear.

Hypothetically, what if Elon runs the company for the next ten years and can launch for 1/2 the price of his competitors. And what if he  chooses to do this out of the kindness of his heart with a sizable market share of launches. What do you think his investors would have to say about it?



As long as he is the majority shareholder, they can say whatever they want, he's still in charge.  In the press conference someone asked him about 'selling' SpaceX to one of the big companies.  His reply was interesting.  paraphrase- "SpaceX has certain philosophical and philanthropical goals that would not align well with big defense industry businesses."

Basically, Elon Musk is a starry eyed dreamer with both the skill and the money to make those dreams come true (or at least take one whale of a shot at doing so).

edit: spelling
« Last Edit: 04/07/2011 06:46 pm by Cherokee43v6 »
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #592 on: 04/07/2011 06:41 pm »
You know that $1000/lb to LEO really is starting to bug me...

With time, SpaceX will charge whatever the market will bear.


A better metric is how much do they charge for a GTO com payload mission ($60 million for Falcon 9 Class, $85 million for Falcon Heavy Class) vs. the other providers (Ariane V and Proton). Yes Heavy is cheaper than the entire EELV class of rockets, but it is not a factor of three lower than the Atlas 401. To lift an Atlas 401 sized payload SpaceX has to use a Heavy. Those are the metrics we should be arguing...
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Offline pummuf

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #593 on: 04/07/2011 06:43 pm »
You know that $1000/lb to LEO really is starting to bug me...

With time, SpaceX will charge whatever the market will bear.

If they mange to keep costs down, establish a good record and gain market share - and those are Big 'ifs' - they'll still eventually charge whatever the market will bear.

Hypothetically, what if Elon runs the company for the next ten years and can launch for 1/2 the price of his competitors. And what if he  chooses to do this out of the kindness of his heart with a sizable market share of launches. What do you think his investors would have to say about it?



As long as he is the majority shareholder, they can say whatever they want, he's still in charge.  In the press conference someone asked him about 'selling' SpaceX to one of the big companies.  His reply was interesting.  paraphrase- "SpaceX has certain philosophical and philantropical goals that would not align well with big defense industry businesses."

Basically, Elon Musk is a starry eyed dreamer with both the skill and the money to make those dreams come true (or at least take one whale of a shot at doing so).

I admire your faith.

Most likely, SpaceX will run into its fair share of problems in the future and their prices will rise. But even if they don't, they'll find a reason to charge whatever they can - after establishing a market share. One obvious reason lies in your quote "philosophical and philantropical goals" ... there's always another project to be paid for.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #594 on: 04/07/2011 06:55 pm »
If Falcon Heavy was only economical for ~50 ton payloads, I would very much agree that it has no payloads and is irrational.

SpaceX still has to prove they can launch Falcon Heavy for the price they quoted, but it still seems to be economically viable for large comm sats to GTO, thus it has payloads.

Are you contradicting yourself there?  So you would agree that it is irrational but by invoking a nebulous statement about "large comm sats" then it makes it ok?

Erm, yes, there's an existing market of large comm sats in the 10-30mt range. Many of these launch every year on rockets that cost more than the FH. We've been over this already.

If the FH were more expensive than existing rockets, there would be a contradiction. The FH is not more expensive than existing rockets in this class.

The FH does not exist and you are assuming the 53 mT-capable rocket will immediately and assuradly beat everything else designed for that class payload.  Therefore, I believe it is necessary for a little development and testing first.  They have a target price, which is absolutely the right thing to have, but nothing beyond that.  ATK advertises a target price for Liberty and people go insane, suggesting all kinds of things. 

You speak as if it has been designed, operational and flown many times.  It's hard to take this seriously.  Again, double standard.  Just thought I should point that out.  Some of us are big enough to wish SpaceX well, hope they succeed as well as everyone else in the industry while others just speak ill of one thing or another when it suits them.  Sad really. 
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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #595 on: 04/07/2011 07:00 pm »
BTW, it would be interesting to show a Zenit in there, to scale. Zenit has a 4 meter diameter, compared with the 3 meters of Falcon.

Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #596 on: 04/07/2011 07:17 pm »
You know that $1000/lb to LEO really is starting to bug me...

With time, SpaceX will charge whatever the market will bear.

If they mange to keep costs down, establish a good record and gain market share - and those are Big 'ifs' - they'll still eventually charge whatever the market will bear.

Hypothetically, what if Elon runs the company for the next ten years and can launch for 1/2 the price of his competitors. And what if he  chooses to do this out of the kindness of his heart with a sizable market share of launches. What do you think his investors would have to say about it?



As long as he is the majority shareholder, they can say whatever they want, he's still in charge.  In the press conference someone asked him about 'selling' SpaceX to one of the big companies.  His reply was interesting.  paraphrase- "SpaceX has certain philosophical and philantropical goals that would not align well with big defense industry businesses."

Basically, Elon Musk is a starry eyed dreamer with both the skill and the money to make those dreams come true (or at least take one whale of a shot at doing so).

I admire your faith.

Most likely, SpaceX will run into its fair share of problems in the future and their prices will rise. But even if they don't, they'll find a reason to charge whatever they can - after establishing a market share. One obvious reason lies in your quote "philosophical and philantropical goals" ... there's always another project to be paid for.

Yes, but in the interview, he also specifically mentioned one of those 'philosophical/philanthropical' goals.  Specifically, he wants to drive the launch costs even lower than the $1000 figure.

Elon has stated that his goal is to facilitate and develop a spacefaring society.  Launch costs are a key inhibitor to achieving that dream, so I do not expect to see him do any more than trend the inflation line on his prices, and if possible, he will trend below that line.
« Last Edit: 04/07/2011 07:18 pm by Cherokee43v6 »
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Offline Jim

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #597 on: 04/07/2011 07:26 pm »
Launch costs are a key inhibitor to achieving that dream, so I do not expect to see him do any more than trend the inflation line on his prices, and if possible, he will trend below that line.

No going to happen, see F9 prices

Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #598 on: 04/07/2011 07:30 pm »
Launch costs are a key inhibitor to achieving that dream, so I do not expect to see him do any more than trend the inflation line on his prices, and if possible, he will trend below that line.

No going to happen, see F9 prices

What, the published prices that have not changed in 3 or 4 years?  Kinda proves my point.

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Offline Jim

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #599 on: 04/07/2011 07:31 pm »
Launch costs are a key inhibitor to achieving that dream, so I do not expect to see him do any more than trend the inflation line on his prices, and if possible, he will trend below that line.

No going to happen, see F9 prices

What, the published prices that have not changed in 3 or 4 years?  Kinda proves my point.



More than inflation and will continue to increase as flight rate increase

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