Author Topic: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement  (Read 336442 times)

Offline mrmandias

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #220 on: 04/05/2011 04:31 pm »
Even for this wild-eyed amazing people, this numbers sound supremely optimistic.  $1000/lb?  Going from >100 k lbf to 145 k lbf?

I wonder if this is partly strategery to still the thunder from the CCDev-2 announcement.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #221 on: 04/05/2011 04:33 pm »
the new FH page has quite a dig at the prices being charged to the DOD for Atlas/D4-H:

Quote
If allowed to compete, SpaceX can help the Department of Defense save at least one billion dollars annually in space launch services, while providing a truly independent family of vehicles to help assure access to space.

The total cost of the current program now exceeds $2.7B, with over $1B paid to a single provider just to sustain the program. That is one billion dollars per year, whether they launch or not.

The 2012 Air Force budget includes $1.74B for four launches, an average of $435M per launch. With Falcon Heavy priced at $80-125M per launch SpaceX has the potential to provide the US government significant value. In addition, the medium-lift Falcon 9 could support a number of medium-lift Air Force launches at only $50-60M per launch, if SpaceX were allowed to compete for this business.

(emphasis mine, some text removed to keep it short).

He may be making enemies in Denver and Decatur, but I suspect there are a few cheering him on in the Pentagon.  If nothing else, the mere presence of SpaceX should serve to contain EELV pricing in out-years.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 04/05/2011 04:34 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #222 on: 04/05/2011 04:34 pm »
This is awesome. Spacex might be our saving grace after all.

Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH (version one utilizing the existing f 9 cores) and they move on up then at the point I would just say have NASA buy rides. Launch the largest future falcons from 39 A with NASA paying for the ride. But we are a LONG way from that being feasible and the next 2 years will be very telling as far as that is concerned.

All in all I think a BFR COULD be cheaper than SLS, long term of course. But much remains to be seen.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #223 on: 04/05/2011 04:35 pm »
the new FH page has quite a dig at the prices being charged to the DOD for Atlas/D4-H:

Quote
If allowed to compete, SpaceX can help the Department of Defense save at least one billion dollars annually in space launch services, while providing a truly independent family of vehicles to help assure access to space.

The total cost of the current program now exceeds $2.7B, with over $1B paid to a single provider just to sustain the program. That is one billion dollars per year, whether they launch or not.

The 2012 Air Force budget includes $1.74B for four launches, an average of $435M per launch. With Falcon Heavy priced at $80-125M per launch SpaceX has the potential to provide the US government significant value. In addition, the medium-lift Falcon 9 could support a number of medium-lift Air Force launches at only $50-60M per launch, if SpaceX were allowed to compete for this business.

(emphasis mine, some text removed to keep it short).

He may be making enemies in Denver and Decatur, but I suspect there are a few cheering him on in the Pentagon.  If nothing else, the mere presence of SpaceX should serve to contain EELV pricing in out-years.

 - Ed Kyle

There are more than a few in Congress watching him. The opinion, however, is split.


Personally I think the new house would prefer a commercial plan because it saves government dollars, potentially, but the unknowns are the problems. Time will tell.
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #224 on: 04/05/2011 04:38 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?

Offline Danderman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #225 on: 04/05/2011 04:40 pm »
The video showed booster separation before final first stage separation.

My guess?  Elon is advertising the final product in a Final Heavy evolution that isn't going to start with these performance figures and mission profiles--it will only end with them (if all goes as planned).

I would imagine that the initial launches would generate some 25 tons of payload capability, with 50 ton capability available on a later iteration of the vehicle, perhaps one with Merlin 2 and Raptor, as suggested earlier.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #226 on: 04/05/2011 04:41 pm »
Yah their numbers show about 53 mt expected to LEO. Also noted that they want to do propellant cross feeds, and I am wondering if this will introduce extra difficulties or higher costs. Shouldn't be too much of a challenge main issues lie in the qd's and the control valves for that system.

The thing I am focusing on here is 53 mt to leo. Thats literally "right on" the money.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #227 on: 04/05/2011 04:42 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?

I don't see why they wouldn't want to. This would have to be sanctioned through the government. Also would likely require some sort of space trade act or something. Obviously you don't want to go flying missions for hostile or enemy nations such as Iran/NK/Libya/ ect.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #228 on: 04/05/2011 04:42 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?
They've already done that. Their first paying payload in LEO, for instance.
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #229 on: 04/05/2011 04:44 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?

I don't see why they wouldn't want to. This would have to be sanctioned through the government. Also would likely require some sort of space trade act or something. Obviously you don't want to go flying missions for hostile or enemy nations such as Iran/NK/Libya/ ect.

What's to stop them from selling F9s on the international market? As long as it's not to nations being boycotted, it shouldn't be a problem. Maybe F9s launching from Brazil, or South Korea, or even Africa?

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #230 on: 04/05/2011 04:44 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?
They've already done that. Their first paying payload in LEO, for instance.

Yes but he means on a far larger scale. Like for example, running manned missions for, say Pakistan or something like that (with Pakistan supplying the astronauts and experiments ofc). Big difference between small probes and large missions.

Also you don't see them flying for just anyone.
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Offline Proponent

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #231 on: 04/05/2011 04:45 pm »
And foreign governments are supposed to among Bigelow's target customers....

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #232 on: 04/05/2011 04:46 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?

I don't see why they wouldn't want to. This would have to be sanctioned through the government. Also would likely require some sort of space trade act or something. Obviously you don't want to go flying missions for hostile or enemy nations such as Iran/NK/Libya/ ect.

What's to stop them from selling F9s on the international market? As long as it's not to nations being boycotted, it shouldn't be a problem. Maybe F9s launching from Brazil, or South Korea, or even Africa?

I would think that when it gets to this stage the government will want to step in and write some guidelines (if there are not already). It won't stop him from doing anything, it will just make clear who you can fly for and who you can't.
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Offline starsilk

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #233 on: 04/05/2011 04:46 pm »
Honestly if they turn out to have a buisness case for FH

This is probably the big obstacle...

Unless... SpaceX goes international and offers cheap spaceflight for 2nd and 3rd world countries who might be interested?

I don't see why they wouldn't want to. This would have to be sanctioned through the government. Also would likely require some sort of space trade act or something. Obviously you don't want to go flying missions for hostile or enemy nations such as Iran/NK/Libya/ ect.

hence, presumably, the follow on lunch meeting he was going to 'be a bit late for' to discuss 'foreign policy'.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #234 on: 04/05/2011 04:47 pm »
And foreign governments are supposed to among Bigelow's target customers....

Another reason why there will probably be a new act related to this. As commercial space begins to wind up the government, probably not just ours, will want to make clear what you can and cannot do and who you can and cannot sell to.
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Online jabe

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #235 on: 04/05/2011 04:50 pm »
btw is the press release package around??
jb

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #236 on: 04/05/2011 04:51 pm »
I watching the video now.  I have to say I disagree with Elon on his remarks about the shuttle. 

First of all it is the shuttle stack injects the orbiter into LEO.  The orbiter is carrying a payload, it is basically a payload within a payload. 

Second, F9H will not be "more capable than the shuttle".  It's a rocket.  It does nothing more once it gets whatever payload into orbit.  Obviously that is not the case with the orbiter. 

I think it's great they are doing this overall, I just think things need to be placed in the proper context. 
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline Danderman

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #237 on: 04/05/2011 04:54 pm »
What's to stop them from selling F9s on the international market? As long as it's not to nations being boycotted, it shouldn't be a problem. Maybe F9s launching from Brazil, or South Korea, or even Africa?

Nothing, except for lack of demand from paying customers.

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #238 on: 04/05/2011 04:55 pm »
Here is a before and after shot of the SLC-4 area to show the amount of work that will be needed

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: LIVE: SpaceX: Falcon Heavy Thread - April 5 announcement
« Reply #239 on: 04/05/2011 04:55 pm »
The video showed booster separation before final first stage separation.

My guess?  Elon is advertising the final product in a Final Heavy evolution that isn't going to start with these performance figures and mission profiles--it will only end with them (if all goes as planned).

I would imagine that the initial launches would generate some 25 tons of payload capability, with 50 ton capability available on a later iteration of the vehicle, perhaps one with Merlin 2 and Raptor, as suggested earlier.

I seriously doubt the 53mt capability mentioned is contingent upon Merlin 2.

Tags: SpaceX 
 

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