Major damage to PU-6 at Baikonur

[russianhalo117]

This accident has dipped the orbital launch count from Baikonur to the lowest since 1959 - only six launches in 2025.

1957-1961:  2-5-4-8-7 launches
1962-2019:  two-digit launch counts
2020-2025:  7-14-7-9-8-6 launches

I would say that this accident is only one of the reasons that Baikonour having its current low launch rate.

Why would you guess that the launch rate only would have been one higher. The lack of foreign payloads coupled with sanctions forced domestic production of all components of which they lack expertise resulting in quality control, learning curves to advance TRL for the domestic industrial base, and satellites products having to be redesigned and modernised to use the domestic hardware they can manufacture with passable quality standards resulted in ongoing gaps in production lines causing a knock on effect. Once they domestically rebound then they can increase launch rates. That is why nearly everything other than ISS flights are continually being bumped to the right from an industry wide perspective. As existing hardware is used up the gap worsens as they deal with mandatory industrial component domestication.

[Nighthawk117]

This accident has dipped the orbital launch count from Baikonur to the lowest since 1959 - only six launches in 2025.

1957-1961:  2-5-4-8-7 launches
1962-2019:  two-digit launch counts
2020-2025:  7-14-7-9-8-6 launches

I would say that this accident is only one of the reasons that Baikonour having its current low launch rate.

Why would you guess that the launch rate only would have been one higher. The lack of foreign payloads coupled with sanctions forced domestic production of all components of which they lack expertise resulting in quality control, learning curves to advance TRL for the domestic industrial base, and satellites products having to be redesigned and modernised to use the domestic hardware they can manufacture with passable quality standards resulted in ongoing gaps in production lines causing a knock on effect. Once they domestically rebound then they can increase launch rates. That is why nearly everything other than ISS flights are continually being bumped to the right from an industry wide perspective. As existing hardware is used up the gap worsens as they deal with mandatory industrial component domestication.

And that is their destiny.  They have no one else to blame.  Their are no foreign sats on the launch schedule on any of their rockets: Soyuz, Proton, Angara, Soyuz-5, etc.   Call it the OneWeb debacle.

[mn]

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/01/finally-some-good-news-for-russia-the-space-station-is-no-longer-leaking/

Some news on pad repair from Eric Berger:

NASA appears confident in pad repairs...

Russia had been targeting a return to flight mission in March 2026. NASA now appears to believe that. The US space agency’s internal schedule, which was recently updated, has the next Progress spacecraft launch set for March 22, followed by another Progress mission on April 26

[russianhalo117]

Russian Space Web free article:
Roskosmos manager casts doubts on timely repairs of Soyuz pad

[Tomness]

Russian Space Web free article:
Roskosmos manager casts doubts on timely repairs of Soyuz pad

Thanks russianhalo117 and thank you Anatoly Zak (anik) for the free article.

[mn]

Russian Space Web free article:
Roskosmos manager casts doubts on timely repairs of Soyuz pad

The headline casts doubt but the article says

but he expressed hope that the March 2026 deadline was still achievable

[big_gazza]

It wouldn't be an Anatoly Zak article unless it has a huge dollop of mandatory pessimism...   

The article strongly infers that the issues are one of some mechanica/ & structural interfaces not being in alignment, so they will need to perform steelwork modifications and on-site remedial coatings.  Not rocket science, excuse the pun. Its about as mundane as it gets,

[russianhalo117]

It wouldn't be an Anatoly Zak article unless it has a huge dollop of mandatory pessimism...   

The article strongly infers that the issues are one of some mechanica/ & structural interfaces not being in alignment, so they will need to perform steelwork modifications and on-site remedial coatings.  Not rocket science, excuse the pun. Its about as mundane as it gets,

Not inferred. Rather confirmed. The entire shift for that launch incident is under criminal review by the investigating committee. Note that hardware was a different version designed for a different pad and all of the pads are not identical rather similar. Pessimism, rather the Slavic culture, language and way of life that he grew up in with English as a second language.

[owais.usmani]

Thanks russianhalo117 and thank you Anatoly Zak (anik) for the free article.

I am pretty sure that Anatoly Zak and anik are two very different people.

[mn]

Russian Space Web free article:
Roskosmos manager casts doubts on timely repairs of Soyuz pad

The headline casts doubt but the article says

but he expressed hope that the March 2026 deadline was still achievable

To add: The technical problems he cites are real and take time to address, the 'hope' is just a hope, I have no idea who this guy is and his history of coming thru on hopes, so no way of judging if his 'hope' is realistic (at least in his mind) or just pie in the sky to satisfy the official party line.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/2017271286779564205

Eric Berger
@SciGuySpace
·

NASA's Dina Contella said Russia's projected March 22 date for the next Progress launch (from a damaged pad in Baikonur) is looking "pretty good." But they're watching the schedule closely.

[Tomness]

It wouldn't be an Anatoly Zak article unless it has a huge dollop of mandatory pessimism...   

The article strongly infers that the issues are one of some mechanica/ & structural interfaces not being in alignment, so they will need to perform steelwork modifications and on-site remedial coatings.  Not rocket science, excuse the pun. Its about as mundane as it gets,

Not inferred. Rather confirmed. The entire shift for that launch incident is under criminal review by the investigating committee. Note that hardware was a different version designed for a different pad and all of the pads are not identical rather similar. Pessimism, rather the Slavic culture, language and way of life that he grew up in with English as a second language.

Would they be better off giving OneWeb their Sats back and begging for the infrastructure at Kourou?

[russianhalo117]

It wouldn't be an Anatoly Zak article unless it has a huge dollop of mandatory pessimism...   

The article strongly infers that the issues are one of some mechanica/ & structural interfaces not being in alignment, so they will need to perform steelwork modifications and on-site remedial coatings.  Not rocket science, excuse the pun. Its about as mundane as it gets,

Not inferred. Rather confirmed. The entire shift for that launch incident is under criminal review by the investigating committee. Note that hardware was a different version designed for a different pad and all of the pads are not identical rather similar. Pessimism, rather the Slavic culture, language and way of life that he grew up in with English as a second language.

Would they be better off giving OneWeb their Sats back and begging for the infrastructure at Kourou?

Both boats have sailed. Irreversible removal and conversion operations have already begun by CNES contractors to ELS facilities. At the rate of the current conflict OneWeb's satellites may become life certification expired and they are already written off their forfeiture by Eutelsat OneWeb so their insurance company effectively owns them.