SpaceX progress toward 175-180 Falcon launches in 2025

[meekGee]

9 in 12 days is a nice little streak, as all assets get used multiple times. Add the mandatory 1 day sequencing buffer, and it's 9 in 13, or a 21/month surge, if it goes to plan.

Interesting.

Btw I've never heard of that site before, trying to corroborate it...

SpaceX's webpage shows upcoming launches:

Mission	Launch site	Launch Date
Starlink 6-86	SLC-40	December 1
Starlink 15-10	SLC-4E	December 2
Starlink 6-95	SLC-40	December 2
Starlink 11-25	SLC-4E	December 4
Starlink 11-15	SLC-4E	December 7
Starlink 6-92	LC-39A	December 7
NROL-77	SLC-40	December 9
Starlink 15-11	SLC-4E	December 10

IIRC, Decembers were always strong...  I'd love to see a 20...

[steveleach]

13 launches in November (going on UTC launch times), which is 3 down on my projection.

152 so far for the year, with 1 month to go, so they'll need 18 in December to hit 170. The original target of 175 to 180 is obviously completely out of reach.

They've been hitting 13 to 16 per month throughout the year so far, so 18 seems like a stretch. That said, in November last year they increased their maximum from 13 to 16, so I wouldn't bet against it.

They would need 20 launches in December to match the 2023-24 year-on-year increase in launches (+38).

[Robotbeat]

170 launches instead of 175 wouldn’t be bad. Getting to 97% of your goal is pretty d*mn good.

[spacenut]

Yes, weather and other problems.  How much did the government shut down delay a few launches?

[meekGee]

170 launches instead of 175 wouldn’t be bad. Getting to 97% of your goal is pretty d*mn good.

Agreed.. if you're hitting 100% of your goals maybe you're not aggressive enough..

[AmigaClone]

Yes, weather and other problems.  How much did the government shut down delay a few launches?

As far as I recall, a couple of Starlink launches were delayed until after 10pm local time, but launched within 12 hours of the original planned time. The weather appears to have been a bigger factor in delays during the shutdown than the actual shutdown itself.

170 launches instead of 175 wouldn’t be bad. Getting to 97% of your goal is pretty d*mn good.

Agreed.. if you're hitting 100% of your goals maybe you're not aggressive enough..

Granted, if your goals depend on external factors like weather, it could be that you were simply anticipating more issues due to those external factors based on historical data than what actually occurred.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Per schedule updates on SpaceX’s mission pages today (4 Starlink launches added), Starlink Group 6-82 currently tracking December 14th evening EST will be the 164th Falcon 9 launch of 2025. If the schedule stands, they just need 6 more in the 2nd half of the month to get to 170.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Per schedule updates on SpaceX’s mission pages today (4 Starlink launches added), Starlink Group 6-82 currently tracking December 14th evening EST will be the 164th Falcon 9 launch of 2025. If the schedule stands, they just need 6 more in the 2nd half of the month to get to 170.

And now as it stands they will get to 166 by midnight EST December 19.

[meekGee]

SpaceX's webpage shows upcoming launches:

Mission	Launch site	Launch Date
Starlink 6-86	SLC-40	December 1
Starlink 15-10	SLC-4E	December 2
Starlink 6-95	SLC-40	December 2
Starlink 11-25	SLC-4E	December 4
Starlink 11-15	SLC-4E	December 7
Starlink 6-92	LC-39A	December 7
NROL-77	SLC-40	December 9
Starlink 15-11	SLC-4E	December 10

IIRC, Decembers were always strong...  I'd love to see a 20...

Well, that happened.
8 launches in 11 days (incl. buffer), for 22/month over these days

6 more by the 18th planned, and if that happens, it'll be 14 over 19 days, still above 22/month.

What happened?

[ZachF]

Per schedule updates on SpaceX’s mission pages today (4 Starlink launches added), Starlink Group 6-82 currently tracking December 14th evening EST will be the 164th Falcon 9 launch of 2025. If the schedule stands, they just need 6 more in the 2nd half of the month to get to 170.

And now as it stands they will get to 166 by midnight EST December 19.

One more and the zoomers will go nuts

[steveleach]

SpaceX's webpage shows upcoming launches:

Mission	Launch site	Launch Date
Starlink 6-86	SLC-40	December 1
Starlink 15-10	SLC-4E	December 2
Starlink 6-95	SLC-40	December 2
Starlink 11-25	SLC-4E	December 4
Starlink 11-15	SLC-4E	December 7
Starlink 6-92	LC-39A	December 7
NROL-77	SLC-40	December 9
Starlink 15-11	SLC-4E	December 10

IIRC, Decembers were always strong...  I'd love to see a 20...

Well, that happened.
8 launches in 11 days (incl. buffer), for 22/month over these days

6 more by the 18th planned, and if that happens, it'll be 14 over 19 days, still above 22/month.

What happened?

Probably a combination of lack of delays and bookending.

Prior to the 1st December they had 1 launch in 7 days.

We've seen this kind of rate from them before, but they've never been able to sustain it. It would be great if they could this time.

[alugobi]

And now as it stands they will get to 166 by midnight EST December 19.

Where they should take a break and give their peeps some time off for the holidays.  Their kids will be home, it's Christmas.  They've had a good year. 

In the grand scheme of things, a few more numbers are unimportant.

[meekGee]

SpaceX's webpage shows upcoming launches:

Mission	Launch site	Launch Date
Starlink 6-86	SLC-40	December 1
Starlink 15-10	SLC-4E	December 2
Starlink 6-95	SLC-40	December 2
Starlink 11-25	SLC-4E	December 4
Starlink 11-15	SLC-4E	December 7
Starlink 6-92	LC-39A	December 7
NROL-77	SLC-40	December 9
Starlink 15-11	SLC-4E	December 10

IIRC, Decembers were always strong...  I'd love to see a 20...

Well, that happened.
8 launches in 11 days (incl. buffer), for 22/month over these days

6 more by the 18th planned, and if that happens, it'll be 14 over 19 days, still above 22/month.

What happened?

Probably a combination of lack of delays and bookending.

Prior to the 1st December they had 1 launch in 7 days.

We've seen this kind of rate from them before, but they've never been able to sustain it. It would be great if they could this time.

Not bookending, that's why I added a day.  The first 11 days are already more than a "surge", and once it's 18 days, it's a sustained rate.  (Still hasn't happened, but is announced, which means at least the resources are available)

 Something got re-aligned.

[Brigantine]

Broken down by resource: (numbers are UTC dates with month omitted)

SLC-40: 2, 9, 11, 15, 19⁺
LC-39A: 1, 8, 15⁺²
SLC-4E: 2, 4, 7, 10, 14, 16⁺

ASOG: _ 2, 8, 15, 19⁺
JRTI: __ 1, 11, 15⁺²
OCISLY: 2, 4, 7, 10, 14, 16⁺
LZ-2:__ 9

What stands out the most to me is OCISLY running at 11/month rate

_{[UPDATE as of 2025-12-16: editing in the delays in superscript. Still 10/month rate if it launches tomorrow]}

[meekGee]

Broken down by resource: (numbers are UTC dates with month omitted)

SLC-40: 2, 9, 11, 15, 19
LC-39A: 1, 8, 15
SLC-4E: 2, 4, 7, 10, 14, 16

ASOG: _ 2, 8, 15, 19
JRTI: __ 1, 11, 15
OCISLY: 2, 4, 7, 10, 14, 16
LZ-2:__ 9

What stands out the most to me is OCISLY running at 11/month rate

...over 6 runs.  That's a step change, right?

Is that a speed upgrade, shorter routes, or faster turn-around? 

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/ApoStructura/status/2000620908419977608

ApoStructura
@ApoStructura
Rocket Launches by company/agency, 2025 YTD

[Galactic Penguin SST]

As of right now the count is at 165 with 2 weeks to go, though only 2 upcoming are currently listed on the SpaceX website (Starlink 6-88 from SLC-40 December 21, CSG-3 from SLC-4E December 27/28), plus Starlink 10-36 with Bahamas landing NET December 19 but yet to be confirmed.

Just 2 more needed on top of these to 170.

[Starship_SpaceX]

As of right now the count is at 165 with 2 weeks to go, though only 2 upcoming are currently listed on the SpaceX website (Starlink 6-88 from SLC-40 December 21, CSG-3 from SLC-4E December 27/28), plus Starlink 10-36 with Bahamas landing NET December 19 but yet to be confirmed.

Just 2 more needed on top of these to 170.

Perhaps they decided to take a week off for Christmas?

[catdlr]

Looks like it 167


https://twitter.com/TurkeyBeaver/status/2001424468141297900

Kiko Dontchev

@TurkeyBeaver

Congrats to the entire @SpaceX team for achieving 165 launches🚀 ! While we originally set out for 170, we actually revised the manifest to 165 this summer based on business and manifest needs. We have two more Falcon launches to go in 2025 for extra credit for a total of 1-6-7 🤣!

Worth noting that SL6-99 was also our last single stick from 39A for some time as we put full focus on Falcon Heavy launches and ramping Starship from the Cape!

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/Gwynne_Shotwell/status/2001426423156806100

Gwynne Shotwell

@Gwynne_Shotwell
We hit our target (we changed it mid-year) and still aren’t done yet! 

Congrats to all that work on the GOAT (rocket 🚀) program 😊