Author Topic: Rocket Lab to go public, develop new vehicle (financial discussion)  (Read 268282 times)

Offline TrevorMonty

RLKB is all over the place recently from $40 1Dec to $65 12th now back down to $56 and still falling.
As per normal for RLKB there is no news or milestones to justify either big up or down. Just stock market being its flickle self.

Offline thespacecow

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Their subsystem business is mainly geared towards old space, e.g. SolAero's main customer is government programs like Gateway, JWST. Their total cells manufactured to date is 4MW, that's just about 2 weeks worth of Starlink launches. The scale and cost is not even relevant to large constellations like Kuiper (which doesn't use space grade cells), let alone orbital data centers.

And why would orbital data center companies out source satellite bus to RL instead of building it themselves, when RL has no experience building large number of satellites or building multi-ton satellites? Even Kuiper doesn't outsource its bus production.


Google even outsource to PlanetLab. RL surely has more experience and competence than PL in this domain.
https://research.google/blog/exploring-a-space-based-scalable-ai-infrastructure-system-design/
Quote
To begin addressing these challenges, our next milestone is a learning mission in partnership with Planet, slated to launch two prototype satellites by early 2027. This experiment will test how our models and TPU hardware operate in space and validate the use of optical inter-satellite links for distributed ML tasks.

https://www.planet.com/pulse/planet-to-build-and-operate-advanced-space-platform-for-project-suncatcher-moonshot/

That's just a one time test, there's no long term commitment.

Kuiper originally planned to launch their test satellites on smallsat launcher, but that doesn't mean smallsat launcher is relevant to their constellation, as shown by them using heavy lift to launch all their operational satellites.

Offline edzieba

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Neutron needs a purpose to survive, it needs a satellite constellation.
Neutron's purpose is launching payloads to orbit. There is no need for a 'killer app', and the launch market will no more collapse to a single provider than it has with after a decade and a half of Falcon 9.

Offline Owen725

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RocketLab has been awarded a contract of potential value up to $805M for 18 Satellites to form the Tranche 3 tracking layer!

https://www.sda.mil/space-development-agency-makes-awards-to-build-72-tracking-layer-satellites-for-tranche-3/

Very good news! This will be their biggest contract yet if they get the full award.

Offline Tywin

Like I said, the space economy is a lot bigger now, and RL is a prime contractor now too...
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Offline trimeta

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RocketLab has been awarded a contract of potential value up to $805M for 18 Satellites to form the Tranche 3 tracking layer!

https://www.sda.mil/space-development-agency-makes-awards-to-build-72-tracking-layer-satellites-for-tranche-3/

Very good news! This will be their biggest contract yet if they get the full award.

Rocket Lab released a video discussing this award and how it represents a success of their strategy to become an end-to-end space provider.


Offline TrevorMonty

Great Xmas present for us investors, share price $70 at closing, expecting it to climb bit more next week. $100 maybe bit optimistic.

This contract almost doubles their backlog from about $1050M to about $2000M. Besides $816M for SDA contract also +$100M in components to the other  winners with Geosat Starlite being one these.  This is where having all these components inhouse pays off.

This award secures RL cashflow for next few years. By time current contract SDA finishes shipping revenue from new contract will be ramping up. Along Neutron launches hopefully.

Neutron will also be online by time these 72 satellites need launch so chance to make bit more $$ on these awards.

Now playing with big boys  ie LM, Northorp, Harris but unlike them have lot more of components inhouse.

Offline TrevorMonty

As expected RKLB still on the rise after SDA award announcement. At time of posting  a new high of $77.86 with half day of trading to go.

Offline TrevorMonty

Goldman & Sach interview with Adam Spice.

This is one best interviews I heard with lot details on costings and future prospects. Far to may bits to cover in this post.
Last bit was interesting, lot other countries are now looking to invest in their own space assets. My guess is because they can't necessary rely on US anymore. While most would like to use local companies alot of essential technology is still held by US aerospace companies. RL is hoping to gain some business here.

Offline ZaphodBeeblebrox

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Great Xmas present for us investors, share price $70 at closing, expecting it to climb bit more next week. $100 maybe bit optimistic.

This contract almost doubles their backlog from about $1050M to about $2000M. Besides $816M for SDA contract also +$100M in components to the other  winners with Geosat Starlite being one these.  This is where having all these components inhouse pays off.

This award secures RL cashflow for next few years. By time current contract SDA finishes shipping revenue from new contract will be ramping up. Along Neutron launches hopefully.

Neutron will also be online by time these 72 satellites need launch so chance to make bit more $$ on these awards.

Now playing with big boys  ie LM, Northorp, Harris but unlike them have lot more of components inhouse.

I agree - RKLB has been very good to us recently.  Securing cash flow is a big deal, and they're pretty good at making inroads with the DOD and business development in general. The in house capabilities can magnify these inroads too.  Yeah $100 seems a bit nosebleed, I expect volatility until Rocket Lab starts turning a profit.  Eventually we'll see where earnings multiples and cash flow stand with Neutron flying and maturing, but I like how they're operating.  I'm looking forward to the next few years and hanging on to my shares.

Online catdlr

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Aerospace Industry·Investment News·Space Technology·Stock Market

Rocket Lab Corporation stock rises after Cantor reiteration as investors track Neutron and Space Force work

by Khadija Saeed
 6 January 2026
PSA #3:  Paywall? View this video on how-to temporary Disable Java-Script: youtu.be/KvBv16tw-UM

Offline ZaphodBeeblebrox

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Cantor bullish with a price target of $72...  so it skyrockets to $86 today LOL!  I might have to take back what I said about $100 seeming nosebleed.  Not easy to set a price target with Neutron still in development.

Good links on this thread over the past couple weeks thanks all.

Offline XRZ.YZ

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Analyst price target or analysis for emerging high valuation smaller companies are mostly "shot first and draw the target later"
XQCR LLYZ GYZH HZSZ

Offline deltaV

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Rocket Lab is a nice company but its stock seems overvalued right now after the stock price tripled in the last year. Rocket Lab's stock closed at $83 today which gives it a market cap of $44B. For it to have a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 20-40 it should have $1.1-2.2B/year in earnings. But it has less than $1B of yearly revenue and roughly zero earnings. Where's the extra earnings going to come from? Neutron may make ~$20M/launch initially but the launch market is getting pretty competitive so profit margins are likely to fall. If Rocket Lab were the leader in the full reuse race then this valuation would make sense, but SpaceX, Stoke, and possibly Blue seem to be ahead of them.

Offline thespacecow

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Note their biggest source of potential future revenue, MSR, just got killed by Congress. It seems that retail investors haven't even realized this yet.

Offline TrevorMonty

Note their biggest source of potential future revenue, MSR, just got killed by Congress. It seems that retail investors haven't even realized this yet.

MSR was always in doubt let alone going out to tender for RL to potentially win.


Offline Tywin

With Blue Terawave more competence for the future constelation of RL...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline trimeta

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With Blue Terawave more competence for the future constelation of RL...
I mean, I wouldn't exactly expect Blue Origin to pay other launch companies to carry their own satellites into orbit. It was one thing with Amazon and Blue Origin, there's a valid argument that "they're both owned by Jeff Bezos but strictly speaking they're different companies, and so Amazon cannot unreasonably favor Blue Origin without pissing off its shareholders," but a private company like Blue Origin can certain eschew bidding out launches of their own hardware if they want to keep everything in-house.

Offline Tywin

With Blue Terawave more competence for the future constelation of RL...
I mean, I wouldn't exactly expect Blue Origin to pay other launch companies to carry their own satellites into orbit. It was one thing with Amazon and Blue Origin, there's a valid argument that "they're both owned by Jeff Bezos but strictly speaking they're different companies, and so Amazon cannot unreasonably favor Blue Origin without pissing off its shareholders," but a private company like Blue Origin can certain eschew bidding out launches of their own hardware if they want to keep everything in-house.

I was talking about Peter Beck future project of they own constellation...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

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