Author Topic: Landing By 2024?  (Read 82038 times)

Offline Joseph Peterson

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #20 on: 05/05/2021 12:30 pm »
I will consider 2024 probable when these three things happen, though not necessarily in this order

1. Starship launched to orbit on Super Heavy and booster recovered. Probably in 2021 maybe Q3

2. Orion launched on SLS for Artemis 1 with no major issues discovered. Probably Q1 2022

3. Successful in Space fuel transfer between Starships

I don't include landing Starship from orbit because even without tanker reuse it's still economical if not paradigm changing.

I generally agree on points 1 and 3.  I didn't go into detail on the lander because I decided it is best practice to never mention the 8-letter S-word in the SLS section during the kerfuffle in the SLS discussion threads earlier this year.

When it comes to point 2 I expect unknown unknowns that can only be found via flight testing.  SLS/Orion is getting little in the way of flight testing.  Orion docking/undocking won't be tested until at least Artemis III.  I'm not saying there will be a problem but I'm not ready to say a landing is probable until after crew is on the lander and Orion undocks.

Offline StarshipSLS

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #21 on: 05/05/2021 12:39 pm »
We'll see. If Starship SN15 lands today, it would make a 2024 landing more possible. (NASA has said that they won't land people on the moon until a 100% successful prototype flight.)It all depends on Starship, SLS, and Orion progress.
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Offline cplchanb

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #22 on: 05/05/2021 12:44 pm »
Also depends on if starship wins the appeal or not. If they get stripped of their contract this might delay the landing if BO or dynetics have a delay themselves

Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #23 on: 05/05/2021 01:04 pm »
The way I see it, there are 2 long poles in the SpaceX Lunar Starship HLS.  Neither of them having to do with actually landing on the Moon.  The actual landing operation will have a lot of commonality with things they've already done and thus have experience with and data from.  Namely the hopper flights; SN6, SN5, Starhopper, and to a lesser extent the 'Grasshopper' flights.

The two long poles are:

1) Starship in orbit refueling and Tanker development/implementation.  Getting this in place is vital for the ability to perform the mission as described in their bid and it is the one thing that there is no existing body of operational knowledge available from which to draw.  (Rapid turn around, while nice, is not quite as critical, as SpaceX has already proven the ability to construct multiple iterations of its vehicles rapidly and could have several boosters and tankers on standby for the initial attempts.)

2) Large scale ECLSS.  Here, there is knowledge available from things like the ISS systems, and their hands on experience with Dragon will be useful, but the scale of the pressurized volume is a potential issue, being as it is a single system the size of the ISS.

If I had to narrow it down to one single critical path item, it would be the refueling tanker.  Luckily, since it is not a item singly dedicated to LSS, it is something that SpaceX can continue to work on even with the contract freeze in place pending GAO decision.  (I also personally think that this is the portion of the contract that all along was more heavily weighted toward internal SpaceX funding anyway due to its critical nature for their other plans.)  If they can perform a demonstration of this before the end of next year, then I believe the rest can fall into place for 2024, possibly with time to spare.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2021 01:06 pm by Cherokee43v6 »
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Offline StarshipSLS

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #24 on: 05/05/2021 01:23 pm »
The way I see it, there are 2 long poles in the SpaceX Lunar Starship HLS.  Neither of them having to do with actually landing on the Moon.  The actual landing operation will have a lot of commonality with things they've already done and thus have experience with and data from.  Namely the hopper flights; SN6, SN5, Starhopper, and to a lesser extent the 'Grasshopper' flights.

The two long poles are:

1) Starship in orbit refueling and Tanker development/implementation.  Getting this in place is vital for the ability to perform the mission as described in their bid and it is the one thing that there is no existing body of operational knowledge available from which to draw.  (Rapid turn around, while nice, is not quite as critical, as SpaceX has already proven the ability to construct multiple iterations of its vehicles rapidly and could have several boosters and tankers on standby for the initial attempts.)

2) Large scale ECLSS.  Here, there is knowledge available from things like the ISS systems, and their hands on experience with Dragon will be useful, but the scale of the pressurized volume is a potential issue, being as it is a single system the size of the ISS.

If I had to narrow it down to one single critical path item, it would be the refueling tanker.  Luckily, since it is not a item singly dedicated to LSS, it is something that SpaceX can continue to work on even with the contract freeze in place pending GAO decision.  (I also personally think that this is the portion of the contract that all along was more heavily weighted toward internal SpaceX funding anyway due to its critical nature for their other plans.)  If they can perform a demonstration of this before the end of next year, then I believe the rest can fall into place for 2024, possibly with time to spare.
I agree with that.
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Offline StarshipSLS

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #25 on: 05/06/2021 06:31 pm »
New Artemis update from NASA's Office of Inspector General: https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-21-018.pdf. It states, that "landing by 2024 is highly unlikely".  (End of Quote) Well, let's hope for the best.
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Offline butters

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #26 on: 05/06/2021 06:47 pm »
Refueling ops is unlikely to be the long pole for the crewed landing demo because it's on the critical path for the uncrewed landing demo. It's the stuff they only need for the crewed mission that's most likely to be deferred and become the long pole for Artemis 3. Particularly the requirements that don't have to be met for DearMoon.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #27 on: 05/08/2021 01:19 am »
New Artemis update from NASA's Office of Inspector General: https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-21-018.pdf. It states, that "landing by 2024 is highly unlikely".  (End of Quote) Well, let's hope for the best.

I didn't find this report very convincing. It says that Artemis I will likely be delayed by a few months and they then assume that this delay of a few months will cascade onto Artemis II and III. They then say that since Artemis III is already planned for the end of 2024, the 2024 timeline is therefore unlikely...
« Last Edit: 05/08/2021 01:32 am by yg1968 »

Offline punder

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #28 on: 05/08/2021 02:02 am »
SLS is not the pacing item for a Lunar landing. That would be the lander itself.
What an (obviously) deliberately obtuse, and (apparently unintentionally) hilarious assertion. I congratulate you, sir.

Needlessly snarky. Sorry jadebenn.
« Last Edit: 05/08/2021 06:10 pm by punder »

Offline JMS

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #29 on: 05/08/2021 02:19 am »
Landing by 2024 will not happen.

Offline Vultur

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #30 on: 05/08/2021 03:36 am »
I would kind of expect it to be delayed into 2025, just because everything seems to end up being delayed, but after SN15 I think it's at least as likely that the delay will be on the SLS/Orion side.

(The landing-flip itself isn't strictly necessary for HLS, but it should be a big help to the test program in general).

Offline SweetWater

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #31 on: 05/08/2021 03:57 am »
SN15's landing might not be directly applicable to the HLS since it won't land on the moon in the same way (or on Earth at all), but there will be multiple refueling tankers needed to get each HLS to the moon. I can imagine the first handful of Starships doing operational missions ending up like SN8/9/10/11 or the first few F9 booster landing attempts, but recovering Starships and rapidly reusing them are key for doing HLS at a sustainable flight rate.

I'm skeptical of a 2024 landing, but SN15 landing was encouraging. Assuming SpaceX doesn't loose any more Starship boosters than they did Starships before a successful landing, an orbital test yet this year might be realistic. That gives them another 3 years to meet the 2024 goal, but they still need to complete the necessary pad and construction infrastructure, finalize an operational design, get the flight rate up, address on-orbit cryogenic fuel fuel transfer, the HLS landing engines, as well as the entire crew section (control systems, environmental systems, airlock, crew/cargo elevator....) of the HLS.

Offline darkenfast

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #32 on: 05/08/2021 04:20 am »
Starship winning HLS is the item that makes 2024 possible. If the Artemis program was going to use the "business-as-usual" approach, then it would not be possible. But now, SLS only has to do one thing: deliver an Orion with crew to whatever high orbit they settle on and then Lunar Starship does the rest. Orion only has to deliver and then return those astronauts. These are things that Artemis should be able to do, if at high cost.

NASA has more insight into what SpaceX is doing with Starship than anyone outside the company. They know what's inside the white "mock-up" at Boca Chica. They've seen the telemetry from the SN-series of tests. They know how SpaceX intends to carry out LEO re-fueling. Most importantly, they know how the actual landing and take-off from the Moon will be done and how much capability will be available.

Any program can be derailed by disaster. But if there is no such disaster, the only reason 2024 won't happen is if political interference makes it not happen.
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Offline Cherokee43v6

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #33 on: 05/08/2021 12:36 pm »
Refueling ops is unlikely to be the long pole for the crewed landing demo because it's on the critical path for the uncrewed landing demo. It's the stuff they only need for the crewed mission that's most likely to be deferred and become the long pole for Artemis 3. Particularly the requirements that don't have to be met for DearMoon.

The bolded comment makes absolutely no sense as it completely contradicts itself.  As the uncrewed demo must come first, any delay there potentially delays the whole program.

The only people with any 'in space refueling' practical experience are the Russians and I highly doubt they are willing to share with SpaceX.  Of all the things that have to be done, in space refueling is the single critical item with the most development to be done with the least amount of data on how to do it successfully.

'Long Pole' means required items that require the most lead time to get done by the scheduled date.  You cannot divorce refueling from the LSS work that needs to be done because without it, there is no LSS landing.  Saying it is resolved for the demo mission and thus not important for the manned mission is like saying you're sitting down to eat in an hour, but you haven't gone grocery shopping for the ingredients yet.
« Last Edit: 05/08/2021 12:49 pm by Cherokee43v6 »
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Online tbellman

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #34 on: 05/08/2021 07:26 pm »
New Artemis update from NASA's Office of Inspector General: https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-21-018.pdf. It states, that "landing by 2024 is highly unlikely".  (End of Quote) Well, let's hope for the best.

I didn't find this report very convincing. It says that Artemis I will likely be delayed by a few months and they then assume that this delay of a few months will cascade onto Artemis II and III. They then say that since Artemis III is already planned for the end of 2024, the 2024 timeline is therefore unlikely...

Note that there is a minimum of 20 months between Artemis I and Artemis II, because they are going to reuse some avionics components from the first Orion capsule in the second Orion.  That's NASA's own estimate of the time required to do that.  See for example page 19 in this OIG report on Orion from July last year.  Artemis I is also used to qualify many components for Artemis II (and onwards), so problems found have a good chance of pushing Artemis II further out.

I don't know what the minimum time between Artemis II and III is, though.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #35 on: 05/08/2021 08:20 pm »
Landing by 2024 will not happen.
This comment would be useful if you told us why you believe this.

Offline AU1.52

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #36 on: 05/09/2021 03:46 am »
Refueling ops is unlikely to be the long pole for the crewed landing demo because it's on the critical path for the uncrewed landing demo. It's the stuff they only need for the crewed mission that's most likely to be deferred and become the long pole for Artemis 3. Particularly the requirements that don't have to be met for DearMoon.

The bolded comment makes absolutely no sense as it completely contradicts itself.  As the uncrewed demo must come first, any delay there potentially delays the whole program.

The only people with any 'in space refueling' practical experience are the Russians and I highly doubt they are willing to share with SpaceX.  Of all the things that have to be done, in space refueling is the single critical item with the most development to be done with the least amount of data on how to do it successfully.

'Long Pole' means required items that require the most lead time to get done by the scheduled date.  You cannot divorce refueling from the LSS work that needs to be done because without it, there is no LSS landing.  Saying it is resolved for the demo mission and thus not important for the manned mission is like saying you're sitting down to eat in an hour, but you haven't gone grocery shopping for the ingredients yet.


Likely a typo.. I would read "Unlikely" as "Likely". Then it makes sense.

Offline butters

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #37 on: 05/09/2021 04:06 am »
Refueling ops is unlikely to be the long pole for the crewed landing demo because it's on the critical path for the uncrewed landing demo. It's the stuff they only need for the crewed mission that's most likely to be deferred and become the long pole for Artemis 3. Particularly the requirements that don't have to be met for DearMoon.

The bolded comment makes absolutely no sense as it completely contradicts itself.  As the uncrewed demo must come first, any delay there potentially delays the whole program.

AU1.52: Nope, I meant unlikely. Refueling is a nearer-term requirement than many other requirements for Artemis 3. If that doesn't make sense, I don't know what to tell you folks.

My point is that orbital refueling is a 2022 project, and ECLSS is a 2023 project. I don't disagree that refueling is among the most significant development items, but SpaceX will tackle the hardest problems first, like developing Starship before Super Heavy.

Feel free to disagree with me. We'll check back in a few years and see who was correct about whether refueling will be demonstrated before life support or other crewed Artemis 3 requirements. I say refueling is problem they confront early and will not be among the final items to nail down for the crewed landing.  I'll be surprised if we don't see the first refueling *attempts* by early next year.
« Last Edit: 05/09/2021 04:13 am by butters »

Online sdsds

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #38 on: 05/09/2021 05:58 am »
Making the 2024 date, or gracefully slipping it. Either way the weight is totally on the shoulders of Bill Nelson. I'm not a Floridian; far from it. But anyone who's been following American human spaceflight knows what Nelson is like. Sure he's first and foremost a politician. But he'll lead NASA well enough, and in particular lead the NASA decision-making process well enough, that we'll get a good outcome.
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Offline JohnF

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Re: Landing By 2024?
« Reply #39 on: 05/09/2021 12:02 pm »
Moon landing by 2024 ?, yes could happen, maybe, however I see Boeing SLS = big time jobs program, Starship - terrible design for a lander, horizontal would be safer, or heck Starhopper would be a better design for a lander.

 

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