NASA is hoping that privatization will incentivize industry to both market SLS, and to exploit any potential cost savings under the pressure of competition. Also as with all products, unit cost is reduced with greater production.In the extreme case that there is no market interest and no savings possible, then the main benefit to NASA will be divestment of management and production responsibilities.
In the opposite extreme case that there is a market for sustained biannual flights of SLS, as well as savings driven by industry, then the additional benefit to NASA (2 over 1) would be 50% cost reduction, with an absolute value perhaps between $500M and $1B per launch.
As with all things, neither extreme is likely and the outcome will fall somewhere in between.
It will be interesting to follow this and see where it goes.
Sorry but there is just no way this will happen. It’s economically impossible.
But I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.
Quote from: JEF_300 on 10/31/2021 10:33 pmBut I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.That is the model we have today, though maybe not the specific amount. But that is NOT what the NASA RFI asks to do, they want to privatize the Space Launch System (SLS), not subsidize it.
Y'all are all down with the personal stuff, aren't you?
USA was created when STS was a “national asset”
There were no alternatives.
It was just a means of consolidating and streamlining management and process.
This situation is completely different. With the current availability and vastly lower costs of F9, Crew Dragon, and FH, it’s already prohibitive; with an operational Starship, it’s utterly bonkers.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 10/31/2021 11:30 pmQuote from: JEF_300 on 10/31/2021 10:33 pmBut I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.That is the model we have today, though maybe not the specific amount. But that is NOT what the NASA RFI asks to do, they want to privatize the Space Launch System (SLS), not subsidize it.Are they going to privatize it while still being the anchor customer and paying like a billion dollars per launch, because that's essentially the same thing.
Sorry. Made two posts earlier today that I regret. Been a year or two since I really lost my temper on this forum. It's gone now.
As to the term "anchor customer", as of today the NASA Artemis program, and specifically the Orion MPCV, is the ONLY customer. NASA is hoping that by privatizing the SLS that non-NASA customers can be found, but this is only a theory, because it would be up to the private entity that takes over the SLS to find non-NASA customers for the SLS.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/01/2021 11:36 pmAs to the term "anchor customer", as of today the NASA Artemis program, and specifically the Orion MPCV, is the ONLY customer. NASA is hoping that by privatizing the SLS that non-NASA customers can be found, but this is only a theory, because it would be up to the private entity that takes over the SLS to find non-NASA customers for the SLS.Reality is not as doomer as you're acting.
I can confirm that there are private companies right now doing trade studies on using SLS. And then it's public that a number of decadal survey proposals are looking at using it.
they are not an indication of commitment to using the SLS.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/02/2021 01:08 am they are not an indication of commitment to using the SLS.What's your point, and why does it matter if there's no firm commitment at the moment?
You're pretending like there isn't even an interest in it nor any chance at all of it happening, which is incredibly incorrect.
Everything starts as a trade study or proposal...
SLS haters in general are really disconnected from the reality of what's actually going on within the industry, which is really annoying to those of us who are in the know.
What's the most expensive launch a private company has ever purchased? Is there any historical precedent that suggests one might buy a launch on SLS?