Author Topic: Commercialized SLS  (Read 172985 times)

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5311
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5019
  • Likes Given: 1553
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #40 on: 10/31/2021 03:35 pm »
I see this RFI as an effort to change the contracting form. From one where NASA is basic responsibility for fiscal and schedule to one where a single contractor is responsible for fiscal and schedule. The LEO Commercial Crew FFP contracts are of this form. NASA would eliminate a significant amount of internal work to integrate between contractors, manage the multiple contracts, and  a lot of fiscal and schedule gyrations. Changing contract styles from multiple Cost Plus contracts to a single Firm Fixed Price contract for the service of a Lunar Crew capability.

Such would be defined like that of:
- at least 4 astronauts to Lunar orbit and their return to the Earth surface
- frequency of at least one per year
- on station at gateway up to Y number of days (I think the current value for this is at least 100 days from the LETS RFP)
- indefinite quantity, indefinite delivery of at least X number of missions over X number of years (X is postulated here as being 5)

And as a sub item that new entrants can compete in the next round for missions that would occur about 5 years after this contract start. This would be postulated as around 2030.

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9115
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 10488
  • Likes Given: 12187
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #41 on: 10/31/2021 05:06 pm »
NASA is hoping that privatization will incentivize industry to both market SLS, and to exploit any potential cost savings under the pressure of competition.  Also as with all products, unit cost is reduced with greater production.

In the extreme case that there is no market interest and no savings possible, then the main benefit to NASA will be divestment of management and production responsibilities.

In other words, layoffs at NASA. Because if the departments and personnel that are currently overseeing the SLS no longer have responsibility over the SLS, then what are they going to do within NASA?

There is an argument to be made that part of the decision to originally create the SLS was specifically to keep NASA personnel employed, so it would be interesting to hear how current NASA SLS personnel view this privatization effort.

Quote
In the opposite extreme case that there is a market for sustained biannual flights of SLS, as well as savings driven by industry, then the additional benefit to NASA (2 over 1) would be 50% cost reduction, with an absolute value perhaps between $500M and $1B per launch.

Which is unlikely to affect NASA, since it is unlikely to result in increased funding for additional missions. Congress has never been concerned about the $40B+ that it has spent on the Orion + SLS, and there are no constitutional limits to how much NASA spends. So that means costs savings on SLS launches would not result in anything different happening with NASA, just that the taxpayer is not paying as much as they would have.

Quote
As with all things, neither extreme is likely and the outcome will fall somewhere in between.

Actually the most likely outcome is that this privatization effort doesn't happen, but even if it did the likely outcome is that the private sector is never interested in using the SLS because A) a 50% reduction in cost still results in a $1B launch, and that is unaffordable, and B) the private sector is not likely at the point where it can afford to risk a "all eggs in one basket" single payload launch on a system that has an iffy future.

Quote
It will be interesting to follow this and see where it goes.

Not sure if we'll hear anything before January, but I don't expect it will drag out much beyond January. It should be pretty clearcut if there is any interest in this or not.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline punder

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1284
  • Liked: 1895
  • Likes Given: 1513
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #42 on: 10/31/2021 05:24 pm »
Sorry but there is just no way this will happen. It’s economically impossible.

USA was created when STS was a “national asset” and the only way for the US to put crews in space. There were no alternatives. It was just a means of consolidating and streamlining management and process. (Whether it actually did that, IDK.)

This situation is completely different. With the current availability and vastly lower costs of F9, Crew Dragon, and FH, it’s already prohibitive; with an operational Starship, it’s utterly bonkers.

Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #43 on: 10/31/2021 10:33 pm »
Sorry but there is just no way this will happen. It’s economically impossible.

Depending on your perspective, and what economic theories you ascribe to, the US government has a budget of either $4 trillion, $20 trillion, -$28 trillion, $0, or $∞. All of which is to say that what is or isn't economically possible for the US government is, at best, hotly debated, and at worst, basically just a series of repeated question marks; and therefore maybe not the best topic for a forum?

But I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.

Perhaps you meant that it doesn't seem politically viable, which is an argument I can maybe see.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9115
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 10488
  • Likes Given: 12187
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #44 on: 10/31/2021 11:30 pm »
But I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.

That is the model we have today, though maybe not the specific amount. But that is NOT what the NASA RFI asks to do, they want to privatize the Space Launch System (SLS), not subsidize it.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline punder

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1284
  • Liked: 1895
  • Likes Given: 1513
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #45 on: 11/01/2021 05:20 pm »
Actually I'm employing a much-disparaged tool called "common sense." I'll grant that's a rare thing in government contracting, and I'm probably hopelessly naive to believe this will all come to naught. So, touche'.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2021 12:08 am by punder »

Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #46 on: 11/01/2021 06:33 pm »
But I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.

That is the model we have today, though maybe not the specific amount. But that is NOT what the NASA RFI asks to do, they want to privatize the Space Launch System (SLS), not subsidize it.

Are they going to privatize it while still being the anchor customer and paying like a billion dollars per launch, because that's essentially the same thing.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline jadebenn

  • Professional Lurker
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1147
  • Orbiting the Mun
  • Liked: 1220
  • Likes Given: 3539
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #47 on: 11/01/2021 10:57 pm »
Y'all are all down with the personal stuff, aren't you?
Sorry. Made two posts earlier today that I regret. Been a year or two since I really lost my temper on this forum. It's gone now.

As JEF points out, though, even at its most ambitious, this is an EELV-style relationship. At its least ambitious, it's USA. The structure and management of the program will change, but its usage won't. Outside developments will not affect this program unless they inspire hitherto unseen corresponding political developments. And that's out of the scope of this RFI, IMO.
« Last Edit: 11/01/2021 10:59 pm by jadebenn »

Offline Spaceguy5

  • Member
  • Posts: 75
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #48 on: 11/01/2021 11:19 pm »
Sorry but there is just no way this will happen. It’s economically impossible.

No it's not

Quote

USA was created when STS was a “national asset”

SLS is a national asset. The white house even views Artemis I as a national security level priority.

Quote
There were no alternatives.

That's SLS' situation too. There are no alternatives that can meet the mission and requirements.


Quote
It was just a means of consolidating and streamlining management and process.


That's *exactly* what this RFI is trying to accomplish.


Quote
This situation is completely different. With the current availability and vastly lower costs of F9, Crew Dragon, and FH, it’s already prohibitive; with an operational Starship, it’s utterly bonkers.

No it's not a completely different situation. Literally none of those can substitute SLS for Artemis purposes, and there's plenty of non-Artemis missions SLS is also significantly better suited for. F9/Crew Dragon/FH in particular are incredibly irrelevant when talking about crewed lunar and deep space exploration.

Which, there's already commercial companies doing trade studies on using SLS for payloads. Only one that I know of has hinted at it publicly, but it is something going on behind the scenes. Just because you hate SLS for your own personal reasons, that doesn't mean the industry hates it nor that it's impossible that it will be used in the future.

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9115
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 10488
  • Likes Given: 12187
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #49 on: 11/01/2021 11:36 pm »
But I mean, if the government is willing, for whatever reason, to give a single contractor $2 billion a year to manage SLS... well, I don't think any company is going to say no.

That is the model we have today, though maybe not the specific amount. But that is NOT what the NASA RFI asks to do, they want to privatize the Space Launch System (SLS), not subsidize it.

Are they going to privatize it while still being the anchor customer and paying like a billion dollars per launch, because that's essentially the same thing.

Read the RFI for the details.

NASA has stated that they plan to use the SLS through at least Artemis IX. As for how much they plan to pay, they are hoping that privatization will reduce the per/launch cost for NASA, but that would up to the private entity and NASA to negotiate.

As to the term "anchor customer", as of today the NASA Artemis program, and specifically the Orion MPCV, is the ONLY customer. NASA is hoping that by privatizing the SLS that non-NASA customers can be found, but this is only a theory, because it would be up to the private entity that takes over the SLS to find non-NASA customers for the SLS.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Rocket Science

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10586
  • NASA Educator Astronaut Candidate Applicant 2002
  • Liked: 4549
  • Likes Given: 13523
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #50 on: 11/02/2021 12:02 am »
This kind of reminds of the guy who can't afford a new car with a 3 year 36 month payment plan. The dealer finance department will happily offer a 84 month payment plan and at the end you will have an out of date car that you payed more for...YMMV
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
~Rob: Physics instructor, Aviator

Offline punder

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1284
  • Liked: 1895
  • Likes Given: 1513
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #51 on: 11/02/2021 12:07 am »
Sorry. Made two posts earlier today that I regret. Been a year or two since I really lost my temper on this forum. It's gone now.
I’ve done the same thing of course. Thanks jadebenn.

Offline Spaceguy5

  • Member
  • Posts: 75
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #52 on: 11/02/2021 12:42 am »


As to the term "anchor customer", as of today the NASA Artemis program, and specifically the Orion MPCV, is the ONLY customer. NASA is hoping that by privatizing the SLS that non-NASA customers can be found, but this is only a theory, because it would be up to the private entity that takes over the SLS to find non-NASA customers for the SLS.

Reality is not as doomer as you're acting. I can confirm that there are private companies right now doing trade studies on using SLS. And then it's public that a number of decadal survey proposals are looking at using it.

Offline spacenut

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5302
  • East Alabama
  • Liked: 2640
  • Likes Given: 3010
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #53 on: 11/02/2021 12:43 am »
I don't believe SLS will ever be commercialized.  It just flat out costs too much. 

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9115
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 10488
  • Likes Given: 12187
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #54 on: 11/02/2021 01:08 am »
As to the term "anchor customer", as of today the NASA Artemis program, and specifically the Orion MPCV, is the ONLY customer. NASA is hoping that by privatizing the SLS that non-NASA customers can be found, but this is only a theory, because it would be up to the private entity that takes over the SLS to find non-NASA customers for the SLS.

Reality is not as doomer as you're acting.

I'm just stating the facts, you are interpreting them in a negative way...  ;)

Quote
I can confirm that there are private companies right now doing trade studies on using SLS. And then it's public that a number of decadal survey proposals are looking at using it.

I added the bolding in order to highlight that "trade studies" and "looking at using it" may be evidence of potential interest, they are not an indication of commitment to using the SLS. Especially when no one knows A) if NASA can privatize the SLS, or B) what a private entity would charge for an SLS launch.

In other words, no one can truly make plans for a launch if they don't know who the launch provider will be, or what the cost will be. Everyone will have to wait for the results of this RFI before anyone can understand if this privatization effort will move forward. And if it doesn't, I would not expect any non-government customers to pursue launching on the SLS.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Spaceguy5

  • Member
  • Posts: 75
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #55 on: 11/02/2021 01:27 am »
they are not an indication of commitment to using the SLS.

What's your point, and why does it matter if there's no firm commitment at the moment? You're pretending like there isn't even an interest in it nor any chance at all of it happening, which is incredibly incorrect. Everything starts as a trade study or proposal, and they wouldn't be spending a lot of engineering time on it if they weren't serious about their interest. SLS haters in general are really disconnected from the reality of what's actually going on within the industry, which is really annoying to those of us who are in the know.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2021 01:29 am by Spaceguy5 »

Offline randomly

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 674
  • Liked: 326
  • Likes Given: 182
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #56 on: 11/02/2021 01:29 am »
Privatization of SLS just doesn't make sense on the face of it. SLS is an entitlement program created to continue the pork barrel funding started with the Ares program. Designed by Congress with no mission objective in mind.  To actually use it for anything is ludicrously expensive and will sink any other program that tries to use it.
It seems more likely this privatization move is more an effort to ensure or extend the SLS cash flow in some manner.
The primary motivation and incentives driving SLS are maintaining the billions of dollars in funding. Actually accomplishing anything in a timely basis is secondary and only driven by a need to generate enough plausible deniability to maintain the funding. The money is the motivation, follow the money.

It will be interesting to see how this whole privatization plays out. What is the scenario that is driving this? Even if it amounts to nothing I expect SLS will drag on to 2030 at least, there is too much money at stake and the lobbyists are very good and well entrenched. Mosquitos and Ticks gotta eat too yah know.

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8190
  • Liked: 6906
  • Likes Given: 2972
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #57 on: 11/02/2021 01:30 am »
What's the most expensive launch a private company has ever purchased? Is there any historical precedent that suggests one might buy a launch on SLS?

Offline Coastal Ron

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9115
  • I live... along the coast
  • Liked: 10488
  • Likes Given: 12187
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #58 on: 11/02/2021 02:11 am »
they are not an indication of commitment to using the SLS.
What's your point, and why does it matter if there's no firm commitment at the moment?

I'm just stating what the situation is TODAY. What is KNOWN today. You are the one that is interpreting that in some negative way.

Quote
You're pretending like there isn't even an interest in it nor any chance at all of it happening, which is incredibly incorrect.

Your "evidence" of interest is below the level that business considers evidence of market demand, which is germane because we are talking about what a private entity could expect the level of demand to be if they were chosen by NASA to privatize the SLS.

Until the management of the company with the payload commits to the SLS being an option, it's the business equivalent of "rumors".

Quote
Everything starts as a trade study or proposal...

OK, but whoever wants to take on the task of running the SLS as a business is going to be doing market studies, and market studies are looking for potential customers, AND are trying to figure out how much those potential customers are willing to pay.

Trade studies are typically engineering studies on what the options are from a product standpoint, but management ultimately decides how to spend company money, what the risks are, and who they want to partner with. Which is why trade studies are not evidence of market demand - they are too early in that decision process.

Quote
SLS haters in general are really disconnected from the reality of what's actually going on within the industry, which is really annoying to those of us who are in the know.

What I know is that the ONLY payload NASA has committed to for the SLS is the Orion MPCV. NASA even confirmed that in the RFI.

And if you are talking about engineers doing trade studies, I would say that it doesn't matter how excited they are about the SLS because engineers don't make $Billion dollar company commitments. And that is what we are talking about here, whether there are $Billions in private funds available to be spent on the SLS instead of on alternative solutions in those trade studies with alternative transportation systems.

So why don't you come back AFTER the trade studies are completed and give us an update on what they found? I'm sure any companies considering responding the RFI would be interested in what you found.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2021 01:27 pm by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39632
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 33376
  • Likes Given: 9626
Re: Commercialized SLS
« Reply #59 on: 11/02/2021 05:03 am »
What's the most expensive launch a private company has ever purchased? Is there any historical precedent that suggests one might buy a launch on SLS?

Not sure if it was the most expensive but Commercial Titan III was $136.6M in 1992, which is $267M in 2021.

http://www.astronautix.com/c/commercialtitan3.html
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0