Total Members Voted: 302
Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 pm
Voted for 28, a little under what they expect from next year since a delay or two could always push a few payloads to the year after.
Personally I prefer the options in this poll. Much better than groupings. Well donePerhaps a poll of how many expected failures too?
I will wait till ~Jan 15th OR until Falcon Heavy launches... to cast a vote... How next year goes does depend on that rocket clearing the tower AND making orbit... ... or not... (hey, just using this poll's rules to my advantage... )
NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
...Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000)....
Quote from: david1971 on 12/16/2017 12:45 am...Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000)....Soyuz only had one such stretch, from 1975 to 1985. But they did launch at least 23 successfully every year from 1964 to 1993.
I am quite surprised at the early results. The lowest number is... shocking. (you'll have to vote to see what it is).. suggests high confidence in SpaceX ability.
Wonderful, I clicked 12. I thought this was asking about reused core flights...
Quote from: Lar on 12/13/2017 07:32 amI am quite surprised at the early results. The lowest number is... shocking. (you'll have to vote to see what it is).. suggests high confidence in SpaceX ability.Lar, unless they have a major failure in 2018, the 2019 poll is going to look strange unless you have a "less than 12 launches" range as option 1. I mean, the Amos-6 issue was addressed in 3 months, and they've now proven they can launch 12 times in 9 months. Averaging less than one launch a month in 2019 would be a failure by SpaceX standards.
Also, it may be scant comfort but you are not alone with that pick!
I fear a launch failure will happen for a block 5 core.
I think FH is notably riskier but of course has low manifest impact if it fails.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/17/2017 07:08 pmI think FH is notably riskier but of course has low manifest impact if it fails.The big impact will be for Commercial Crew if FH destroys the pad. Probably at least a 6 month delay, if not longer.
I chose 18. If all they were doing in 2018 was launching commercial payloads via F9, I would have chosen a higher number. However I think they will be slowed a bit by Commercial Crew/D2 efforts along with FH development - each of those projects takes significant resources from a finite pool.
Quote from: EE Scott on 12/24/2017 12:17 amI chose 18. If all they were doing in 2018 was launching commercial payloads via F9, I would have chosen a higher number. However I think they will be slowed a bit by Commercial Crew/D2 efforts along with FH development - each of those projects takes significant resources from a finite pool.I don’t think Dragon 2 will be any more of a limiting factor in 2018 than 2017. SpaceX resources are still a growing pool, near the 7,000 people mark now. That’s a lot of resources and with 3 pads and less range support resources needed (due to AFTS) I think SpaceX have lessened some key limiting factors.
I'm going to wait until the 18th or 19th to vote because a F9 failure or major problem with FH static fire would effect my answer. But I anticipate voting like 24 or something.
So in the final days- we may or may not have a FH launch to inform guesses... - the final outcome of Zuma isn't known... (but SpaceX is apparently not standing down in any way)- how fast Boca Chica comes on line *might* be a factormy guesses are already in. If yours aren't .. .hahah have fun.
I think you should make BFR/BFS launches count, even if suborbital, because, you know, I'm sure that Elon has an absurd level of optimism that they will launch a rocket this year that they haven't even finished designing yet.
So if things go well today, and I'm going to touch every form of wood that I can find, we're on track to be double our launch rate of last year, which was a record launch rate for us, and effectively Falcon 9 was the most launched rocket worldwide of 2017.
In the CNBC interview with Gwynne shown today she said SpaceX will do 24 to 28 launches this year, but only about 18 launches next year (due to demand reduction next year).
Dont they have a manifest stretching for years? Is there none of that stuff that could be moved forward?
Looking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to. My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.
Quote from: gongora on 05/30/2018 06:33 pmLooking at the manifest for the rest of the year and guessing which flights could realistically happen, I'm down to around 24 and up to five more that could happen but I don't really expect them to. My current guess would be the bottom of the 24-28 range.If around 5 flights on the manifest move from 2018 to 2019, then all of a sudden SpaceX's 2019 manifest is as large as 2018's with 24 and ~23 flights. Certainly nothing wrong with that. SpaceX has the extra capacity on the manifest in 2019.
For the period of 8 Aug 2017 to 7 Aug 2018 there have been 23 launches. This is a very solid 2 a month rate. This speaks for 2018 as being 24 +- 2.
Any idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?
Quote from: DreamyPickle on 08/13/2018 11:54 amAny idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?Lack of payloads being ready would be my top guess.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 08/13/2018 01:06 pmQuote from: DreamyPickle on 08/13/2018 11:54 amAny idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?Lack of payloads being ready would be my top guess.If so, IMHO, that's a great accomplishment--working through the F9 manifest backlog on both coasts.
After GPS-III 1 launches on December 18, SpaceX will have launched 21 missions, so it's safe to say that only 1.3% of the voters on this poll were right.
Well it's official. 21 is the answer.
And the answer is.... (drum roll)26Numerically, 26.4 +/-5.2(Best fit Gaussian mean and moment)Pretty close to my guess of 27.YMMVLast year the consensus was 13.7 +/- 5.2, so the 18 launches was significantly higher. Once again, the consensus forms within the first few days and the first fraction of the total votes and never moves significantly.