Author Topic: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3  (Read 140156 times)

Offline KelvinZero

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #40 on: 01/03/2017 08:44 am »
This is a weird debate: the people who want to go vs the people who cannot imagine anyone wanting to go :)

Offline Chris Bergin

It is a very strange thread (by way of messy construction), but posting "This is a strange thread" (paraphrased) only serves to bump it. Threads I'm not a fan of are threads I don't post on (and I'm only posting to make this point). Those that do, will. If no one is interested, the thread will die off.

Let that be a rule to all of you ;)
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #42 on: 01/03/2017 05:01 pm »
I guess what I'm trying to say is what is so bad about living anywhere on Earth that only moving to another planet will fix it?
Do you believe that's the only possible situation that would motivate someone to move to Mars?
No. I'm trying to understand what are these intangible benefits which people seem to think they will get from living on Mars they cannot get anywhere on Earth.

Thinking further I think I've found the thing that's bothering me which I could not articulate earlier.

It is possible to conceive of Mars architecture that is both pleasant to live in and will provide adequate radiation and impact protection.

The problem (well one of several)  I'm having trouble working out is when the settlers will have time to build this instead of the basic facilities needed to house the next group of arrivals.

It's the Venn diagram.

Could you round up a few thousand (even a few hundred thousand) people who want to build a new society? Yes
How many of them have $500k in cash?
How many of them have (or can acquire in time) relevant skills?
How many want to do it in a place they will never return from?

The obvious parallels would be the the Mormon migration to found Salt Lake City and the establishment of Kibbutzes in what was then Palestine.  AFAIK neither had the equivalent of half million dollar buy in (in then year dollars) to go.  :(

BTW in terms of who could afford to go This chart from the OECD shows the global picture on household debt as a percentage of households disposable income from 2014
https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-debt.htm

And here's the position for average Americans in 2016
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/average-credit-card-debt-household/

Someone mentioned the idea of establishing some kind of "foundation" to fund people to go to Mars. I believe some states (like Alaska) sponsor students in needed occupations.

I haven't seen anything else about this idea since it was mentioned. On those figures it looks like quite a few people will be needing help with their tickets.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2017 05:06 pm by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline DanielW

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #43 on: 01/03/2017 05:34 pm »
For me a better life would be freedom to build. I would love to have a square mile with no other building codes than the laws of physics. The stuff I build might suck and might even kill me, but if enough go, someone is going to build something amazing.

My other reason for wanting to go is that I absolutely love life. Not just my life, but life in general. I think the universe should be bursting with the stuff. I have an idiotic desire to make huge domes on mars and fill them full of trees, ants and elephants, just so someone, sometime can see what they evolve into.

That being said, I won't be going. Life is going well enough that barring event that makes it impossible to physically or morally raise my family here on earth, we will be sticking around. I am fully prepared to support my or someone else's kids going though. Whether by using EloNet as my ISP, passing a few dollars to amazon, or some likeable individual's goFundme page.

Online CraigLieb

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #44 on: 01/03/2017 07:31 pm »
The intrigue of Mars is, it's Mars.
What you can do on Mars that you can't do on Earth is:
 1) Study Mars up close, run experiments, etc. Including studying old life if found, or why life didn't form..
 2) Try new things like planet terraforming, colony building on a different planet,  and experiments in new forms of government that may not be possible given the space is all taken up on Earth. 

And finally, every new frontier generates it's own energy which creates new forms of growth. Travel to Mars will be no different, creating or fostering new industries and new possibilities.

Mars being an economy that pays for itself is not an issue really. Most of the $$$ for Mars will be spent on Earth to suppliers and "shippers".  Deep pockets will pay for the up-keep (either personal fortunes, companies, governments and combinations of above).

When the economics of going change with new technology like ITS, people will go, then this becomes a poll for the departing passengers.

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Offline Oli

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #45 on: 01/05/2017 03:04 am »
This is a weird debate: the people who want to go vs the people who cannot imagine anyone wanting to go :)

Oh I'm sure a lot of people want to go, at first. But when the hype is over and no fame awaits anymore, and Mars proves to be a rather unattractive place to live, who's still going to pay 500k to live there forever? I'm just saying that idealism won't do it in the long term.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #46 on: 01/05/2017 03:11 am »
concern trolling. *yawn*
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline dglow

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #47 on: 01/05/2017 03:33 am »
Nah, this could be a genuine concern. The 'Martian longing for the luxuries of Earth life' trope is pratically a staple of science fiction, after all.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #48 on: 01/05/2017 11:05 am »
That being said, I won't be going. Life is going well enough that barring event that makes it impossible to physically or morally raise my family here on earth, we will be sticking around. I am fully prepared to support my or someone else's kids going though. Whether by using EloNet as my ISP, passing a few dollars to amazon, or some likeable individual's goFundme page.
Thank you. You have just captured one of the the problems I have with the whole narrative around Martian settlement.

Your PoV is completely understandable and my belief is that it is actually quite common.

Which gives us 2 groups. Those who could afford to go, want to go but (for whatever reason) cannot and those who will go (if they had the fare) but cannot afford the fare.

Do you see any options that people like you as a group could get together and fund people who are able to go and would improve the settlements chances of survival?


Oh I'm sure a lot of people want to go, at first. But when the hype is over and no fame awaits anymore,
Indeed. Plenty of people can name the first men on the Moon, some can name the last. Not many can name the rest.  :(
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and Mars proves to be a rather unattractive place to live, who's still going to pay 500k to live there forever?
Actually #2 on list of sustainable businesses was retirement communities for the very well off who are finding 1g too tiring and can afford the necessary fees. With adequate wealth anywhere
can be an attractive place to live ( a dormant volcano on a deserted tropical island for example  :)  )

A planet settled by the former staff of "Musk Villas" ("Gracious Living for the Extraordinarily Wealthy"  :) )
does not sound very heroic but part of this thread is to separate the subconscious romanticism (and there's a fair bit of that) from what's practical and even probable.

Personally I'd love to see wild camels roaming the Martian plains as they do in the Middle East and Australia. It's a charming image, but biologically complete nonsense.  :(
Quote
I'm just saying that idealism won't do it in the long term.
Idealism alone won't do it  :(. Does anyone doubt initial conditions will be fairly basic?

 People will put up with those provided  there is a plan that leads from those to something better in the longer term. That might include less cramped living conditions and removal of restrictions on the use of any consumables like water,  and must include (at some point) the ability to have children.

I think Mars will require the sort of attitudes that brought people to establish Kibbutzes in what was Palestine and Mormons to migrate to Utah.

The reward has been to see those sites change out of all recognition to how they were when the first settlers arrived. This also tends to discourage the idea of on site housing put up by construction teams on short term contracts who return to Earth. Construction (and upgrading) will be a continuous process.

The intrigue of Mars is, it's Mars.
What you can do on Mars that you can't do on Earth is:
 1) Study Mars up close, run experiments, etc. Including studying old life if found, or why life didn't form..
That's a reason to go to Mars, but it's not a reason to stay on Mars. Also it will not put any money into the Martian economy unless staff can spend it outside the laboratory. `
Quote
2) Try new things like planet terraforming,
This looks to be completely off the table as a) It violates "planetary protection" rules and b) Current views suggest you won't see any worthwhile changes for 1000 (and possibly 10 000)  years. As I've noted if you could see changes in say 50-100 years that could be a significant motivator but AFAIK no such plan exists.   :(
Quote
colony building on a different planet,  and experiments in new forms of government that may not be possible given the space is all taken up on Earth. 
The settlement is being supplied lock stock and barrel by a US corporation based in the US under US Federal law. I would not be too hopeful of any dramatic shifts in government.
Quote
And finally, every new frontier generates it's own energy which creates new forms of growth. Travel to Mars will be no different, creating or fostering new industries and new possibilities.
Except that what advocates keep saying about Mars is that it be unlike previous frontiers.  :(
Although I think Martian bottled Glacier Water ("With a hint of Tangy Peroxides") could be a real winner.  :)

The fact that (so far) all settlers will be delivered by 1 company operating from 1 country with a very significant fee up front suggests they are right. It won't be like any other migration in history.

I think some of the most significant "possibilities" during previous migrations came about when different peoples, from different countries by different transporters came together. That simply won't happen here.
Quote
Mars being an economy that pays for itself is not an issue really.
Agreed.  I've never expected the settlement to recover anything near it's set up costs, which would include the R&D budget for ITS. 

I do think it needs to generate revenue to cover it's running costs IE the stuff it cannot make on its own. 
Quote
Most of the $$$ for Mars will be spent on Earth to suppliers and "shippers". 
No doubt.
Quote
Deep pockets will pay for the up-keep (either personal fortunes, companies, governments and combinations of above).
You  make it sound less like a "backup" to Earth, more a "life boat" for the top 1%.

That's not a million settlers. That's more like 10 000 people at most.  1000 VIP's plus their entourages.   :(

So far Musk and SX are the only corporation and individual doing this. Bezos is interested but AFAIK that's his personal wealth, not part of Amazon. If it was that would be subject to stockholder concerns about developing an RLV not being a "core activity" of the company.  :)

Would the US (presumably through NASA) pay for a base on Mars? Probably. How big? 10? 100? ISS holds 6. Would the USG  allow SX to deliver another countries base(s) to Mars and support it(them)? I guess that's a question for President Trump.
Quote
When the economics of going change with new technology like ITS, people will go, then this becomes a poll for the departing passengers.
People will certainly be thinking about going. Wheather they do (or can afford to) only time will tell.
« Last Edit: 01/05/2017 11:13 am by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline Ludus

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #49 on: 01/06/2017 05:03 am »
It will change over time, but for earlier phases of settlement my elevator pitch reason to settle on Mars is to make money and send it home. From an individual POV the the main export from Mars is money in the form of digital bits.

If there are settlers on Mars anybody can "do things on Mars" just by paying them...transferring electronic bits into their accounts just like people on earth. The market to have somebody do something for you on Mars would be pretty large now and even larger when you can ship things to Mars to do things with.

The prospect of sending money home from comparatively high paying jobs in distant places motivates a lot of people in the current world economy.

Other than few space tourists who paid tens of millions for the privelege, no one has ever traveled in space as a free agent, not an employee of a government. There is no reference for the market price of labor in such circumstances. I'm suggesting it's extremely high compared to anywhere on earth. The cost of living will also be extremely high but a frugal Mars settler might be able to remit six figure sums back to the folks at home on a regular basis.

Online CraigLieb

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #50 on: 01/06/2017 03:03 pm »
So maybe folks will decide to go because they want to and can physically, emotionally and financially have the ability to go.
 An interesting question is how long might a moderately well off middle aged person be able to stay on Mars.
To that end, I created a table that has so many assumptions:
    -  a person born in 1961 with $2.5 Million to invest prior to buying the ticket.
    -  $900K to get to Mars fully outfitted. 
    -   Remaining assets are invested at 6% return.
    - $160k (adjusted for 4% inflation) net cost of staying on Mars which may represent very     
      expensive shopping from Earth that gets delivered every few years, plus expenses incurred on planet.
   wiith Arrival on or around 2032. This person may remain cash positive until they are 84 years old.

See the graphic below.


« Last Edit: 01/06/2017 03:04 pm by CraigLieb »
On the ground floor of the National Space Foundation... Colonize Mars!

Offline gospacex

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #51 on: 01/06/2017 04:10 pm »
This is a weird debate: the people who want to go vs the people who cannot imagine anyone wanting to go :)

Oh I'm sure a lot of people want to go, at first. But when the hype is over and no fame awaits anymore, and Mars proves to be a rather unattractive place to live

By this time, the die will be cast. There will be already many people on Mars - a colony.

Anyone born there and not being happy about that will have to make enough money to pay for relocation elsewhere.

As to "rather unattractive life", I think a lot of you people from Western countries just don't fully realize how much _life on Earth_ 300 years ago used to be "rather unattractive" for something like 95% of the population: hard work (routinely 16 hours per day) just to not starve, diseases, unequal rights, political repression. (BTW, large fraction of population of "non-Western" countries still endures rather unattractive life today.)

Yet somehow, we managed to live through it. Why would that be impossible on Mars?

Offline JamesH65

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #52 on: 01/06/2017 04:14 pm »
This is one of those threads where someone has an unshakeable belief, and others hold alternative beliefs. It will be impossible to persuade one or the other of your point of view, despite cogent argument.

I don't believe in God. But lots of people do - I have no idea why. I believe in evolution, lots of people don't. I have no idea why. I believe climate change is a thing, lots of people don't, I have no idea why. No amount of cogent argument will shake those beliefs, even if I think they are bonkers.

So really, what can be said? I'll have a go!

Lots of people emigrate to countries on the other side of the world - leaving jobs, friends and family behind. Mars is just further away.

Lots of people do dangerous jobs and send money home (oil rig workers etc). Mars is more dangerous, but perhaps more profitable.

Lots of people are adrenaline junkies, it doesn't get more adrenaline fueled than a life on Mars.

Lots of people have a pioneering spirit and want to do something different, despite ties on Earth.

Lots of people are fed up with the way the Earth is run, although I suspect Mars might not be much different.

Lots of people might live longer in a low gravity environment, perhaps a good retirement option if cheap enough.

There are 7B people on the Earth, even if a tiny percentage from the categories above want to go, that's enough.

And what about manufacturing/employment?

Low gravity on Mars might be a boon for pharmaceutical companies, or anyone who find something can be made in low gravity that others on Earth want.

Mars has lots of empty space, might be good for testing stuff where you need lots of space, with low air pressure and gravity a bonus.

Once there are enough people on mars, it will become self sustaining - after all, a large people on Earth are employed looking after other people on one way or another.


Now all of the above varies with timescale. The next 50-75 years will be rough, but then things will smooth out and live of Mars will actually be pretty good.

Unfortunately, I suspect the Earth will be ruined before Mars becomes a viable alternative.

Offline Lar

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #53 on: 01/06/2017 04:30 pm »

Musk does not think there is anything that is valuable enough to justify the shipping costs.

John has latched on to this (as he does with many other things) and is unshakable in his belief.

The fact that Musk makes offhand remarks all the time, some of which he walks back? Irrelevant. 
The fact that many other people ran numbers disproving it? Irrelevant.

"But still it moves"

"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #54 on: 01/06/2017 05:03 pm »
A lot of people grow fond of where they grew up. Some people love the city and others can't stand it.

Some people love the forest, others love the feeling of wide open spaces. Some people love the outdoors, others would rather stay inside all the time. Some people love the sea and live their life upon it, others will get sick on a boat. Some people love the stark desert, others can't imagine why anyone would want to live there. Some people hate winter and can't imagine why people live in a place that gets so cold for so long. Others (like myself) enjoy and yearn for it.

Why would Mars be so different?

Diversity in lifestyle is what makes humanity adaptable. It's why there are humans everywhere, including Inuits in the frozen north, nomads in the deserts, and fishing communities that live nearly their whole lives on the water.

Once you have a community, culture and lifestyle develops.

"I can't imagine why anyone would want to live..." ...is a statement that only proves one's own lack of imagination.

I suggest flipping the question around: "It is the year 2150 and there's a thriving Martian city. How did this happen?"
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #55 on: 01/06/2017 11:19 pm »
The fact that Musk makes offhand remarks all the time, some of which he walks back? Irrelevant. 
The fact that many other people ran numbers disproving it? Irrelevant.
I have not replied to your last post because I want to give it the attention it deserves.

That "offhand remark" you keep referring to was in fact made here.

http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/elon-musk-at-mits-aeroastro-centennial-part-5-of-6-2014-10-24

In the 1st minute of the segment. (As always many thanks to QG for this resource).
 It's in reply to a specific question by one of the audience, who I presume are mostly aeroastro engineering students, while being interviewed by MIT Aeronautics and Astronautics Department Head Jaime Peraire

Not in fact a tweet or a soundbite on a TV News show.

Perhaps you could cite some later event where he "walks it back" ? He has a Degree in Economics and has been thinking about moving to Mars for most of the last 20 years (at least) and I'd say he's pretty business orientated. It would be surprising if he hadn't given serious thought to what you could send back to Earth to offset the operating costs.

I posted a list of things that are more expensive than crack cocaine but you're not going to be making any Plutonium or Calforniun 252 without a nuclear reactor to begin with. The 3rd most valuable item is a gemstone that may (or may not ) exist on Mars.

I've also noted repeatedly that you could make a product on Mars specifically to have the label "Made (or bottled since I was thinking of glacier water) on Mars" In fact that was included in the 2nd post on this thread.

It's one of the points previous threads threw up. It looks like one of the few reasonable ideas for a sustainable cash flow to pay for the operating expenses.

It would be useful if the original thread could be made visible again if it still exists. It was highly productive.
« Last Edit: 01/06/2017 11:33 pm by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #56 on: 01/06/2017 11:32 pm »
So maybe folks will decide to go because they want to and can physically, emotionally and financially have the ability to go.
 An interesting question is how long might a moderately well off middle aged person be able to stay on Mars.
To that end, I created a table that has so many assumptions:
    - $160k (adjusted for 4% inflation) net cost of staying on Mars which may represent very     
      expensive shopping from Earth that gets delivered every few years, plus expenses incurred on planet.
   wiith Arrival on or around 2032. This person may remain cash positive until they are 84 years old.

See the graphic below.
So to be clear you hit retirement, go to Mars for a bunch of years and come back to Earth ?

This isn't really building a settlement it's more a long term vacation / place to die trip.  Not impossible provided you have a hotel for them ("Musk Towers, Residential Hotel for the significantly well off"  :) )
[EDIT $160k / year (I'm presuming that's a year) is about $438/night. A quick search

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/travel/finding-last-minute-deals-on-upscale-hotels.html?_r=0

showed this is a nice hotel, but no means the limit of what you could pay, even at 2014 prices.  Clearly location is important. I'm not really sure what's so great about Kennebunkport, Maine but it must be pretty nice for $630/night standard]

BTW AFAIK the long term space adaptability problem is still not solved so we don't know if such a person could come back to Earth and survive the trip. No one will fund the necessary centrifuge on the ISS to find out.  :( [EDIT not an issue if you're never coming back and not planning on any children on Mars]

Obviously the experience of people in their 70's on Shuttle surviving is positive but that was < 14 days. You're talking 1/3g for years.

So it's looking like quite a lot of the settlers will be former care staff for permanent residents and former staff of 5 star hotels.

The prospect of sending money home from comparatively high paying jobs in distant places motivates a lot of people in the current world economy.

Other than few space tourists who paid tens of millions for the privelege, no one has ever traveled in space as a free agent, not an employee of a government. There is no reference for the market price of labor in such circumstances. I'm suggesting it's extremely high compared to anywhere on earth. The cost of living will also be extremely high but a frugal Mars settler might be able to remit six figure sums back to the folks at home on a regular basis.
Interesting strategy.

I believe the cost of astronaut time on the ISS is indeed very high. However that requires someone on earth to act as a broker for you time. Temporary job agencies and Uber tend to suggest this arrangement gives most of the power to the agency, not the worker.

And of course there aren't 6 people on Mars, there's a 100. Which will be growing at every synod.

Not to mention that any sample return prices will be set by the transport provider.

it's an interesting strategy for settlers to be able to afford to stay on Mars, but I suspect initially most of the bodies that want to do research on Mars will send their own people or contract with SX directly to do this.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2017 07:13 am by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline Paul451

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #57 on: 01/08/2017 07:21 am »
Belatedly:

Not forgetting the 298 objects over 3.9m in diameter that made it to Mars surface last year

Assuming a mundane power-law relationship, so say 3-5000 objects a year over a metre, and a roughly uniform distribution. Then on average, one impactor larger than a metre will come within 1km of your colony site every 50,000 years or so, within a hundred metres every 5 million years.

I don't think it's a significant issue compared to other risks of living in a near vacuum.

(Moreso, how deep would you need to bury your colony to exceed the brecciation depth of a given impactor? Let alone the shock depth.)



[planet terraforming]
This looks to be completely off the table as a) It violates "planetary protection" rules

Any colony violates Planetary Protection (both ways). If you have a colony you are already saying you don't care.

based in the US under US Federal law.

You've mentioned US law/US Govt a few times, as if that's significant. The OST allows for a facility to transfer it's "flag nation" away from the launching nation. (And indeed, that's normal for satellites.) So if a colony registers under the flag of a nation willing to take them, it's no longer under US jurisdiction. So I think you're reading too much into this. The US govt might ban Musk from transporting non-US citizens to Mars... but why would it?

with a very significant fee up front

It's not just the transport costs. Assuming little or no trade back to Earth, the colonists will need to fund everything they will ever need to import from Earth.

I would expect that to be at least an order of magnitude more than the ticket price alone, and that's just for your own life-time.



« Last Edit: 01/21/2017 05:30 pm by Lar »

Offline Paul451

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #58 on: 01/08/2017 07:29 am »
All,
Re: Income for Mars. (Or earning income on Mars.)

Seems unlikely. As JS19 noted, other than science, there's nothing on Mars that anyone on Earth wants. Mars water/Mars rocks/etc is going to be a limited novelty market. It might be valuable per-item when the number of items is low. As the no.-of-items increases, the cost per-item has to drop substantially for the novelty to remain a selling point, in effect making it a fixed total value market.

[Glacial water has the (fictional) cachet of "purity". Mars Water is just novelty value.]

Science is not a source of income, beyond the wages paid to individual researchers. The science will belong to the funding agency on Earth, as it always has. Antarctic research doesn't make money "for Antarctica". And with no local income, the colony itself won't be able to fund research, so the research agencies will always be Earth-side. That would make NASA researchers the highest paid workers on Mars (and that will be a standard astronaut salary.)

Unlike in KSR's Mars trilogy, the population on Mars will always be too small to generate significant new technologies to patent and licence on Earth. And no industrial process on Mars is likely to be valuable to Earth (if it was, we'd do it in LEO.)

What's left?

Re: Motivations for going. (Other than money.)

People need to be careful using historical (or biological) analogies for Martian colonisation.

Eg. Having children is a strong drive. Deeply rooted in biology. It isn't a general thought process, it's specific to having kids. It isn't a general mechanism that can apply to anything else.

Likewise, exploration is a drive for some people. But exploration isn't colonisation. Adventure is also a pull for some, but settling isn't adventure. (It's the opposite, it's the thing you do when you're all adventured out.)

Historically, when people move permanently, it was to either better themselves, or more commonly to create a better future for their kids. The first colony in a new region may be worse than being a dirt-farmer in backwater England/Netherlands/wherever, but the nature of political structures at the time meant that being a land-owner was a fundamentally different class of life. The chance to become a land-owner was the ability to go from being a high-ranking animal to a low-ranking human. A peasant to a lower-ranked lord. You could place your kids on the bottom rung of a fundamentally different economic class. Something you literally could not do back home. Yes, you'd risk a lot for that.

But it doesn't apply to to Mars. (Not unless the ticket price drops by a couple of orders of magnitude and technology matures radically.)

That pretty much leaves religion as a motivator. And since an early colony will be effectively a commune, that works. Although each settlement will need to be single-religion only. Religions might also be the only groups willing to fund a colony (as opposed to a research base) in the long term.

Offline gospacex

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Re: The Mars settlement / Martian homesteading narrative 3
« Reply #59 on: 01/08/2017 01:10 pm »
Eg. Having children is a strong drive. Deeply rooted in biology. It isn't a general thought process, it's specific to having kids. It isn't a general mechanism that can apply to anything else.

Likewise, exploration is a drive for some people. But exploration isn't colonisation. Adventure is also a pull for some, but settling isn't adventure. (It's the opposite, it's the thing you do when you're all adventured out.)

I disagree. Having a fraction of the population which is restless and just can't sit at home, farm its field, and be content with it is a factor in the survival, just as important one as having children.

This fraction of the population is what makes species expand and find new places to live.

I personally talked to some young Germans who said that they are terminally bored by life in their country. Everything is well-organized. Everything is predictable. Which is in many respects a good thing (and many countries would LOVE to be like Germans), but there are people who run away from "boring and predictable".
« Last Edit: 01/08/2017 01:11 pm by gospacex »

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