Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 993615 times)

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10205
  • US
  • Liked: 13885
  • Likes Given: 5933
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #360 on: 04/19/2018 05:29 pm »
Ben Cooper has been posting frequent updates to his Falcon 9 launch schedule, he seems to be our best source of info right now.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the first satellite for the country of
Bangladesh, Bangabandhu 1, from pad 39A, on May 4 at the earliest, in the afternoon EDT. Then, a
Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the SES-12 communication satellite on mid-May TBD, in the
evening EDT. A Falcon 9 will launch the Telstar 19 communication satellite, likely from pad 40, on
early June TBD. A Falcon 9, likely from pad 40, will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the
ISS on June 28, roughly around 5am EDT. The launch time gets 22-26 minutes earlier per day. A
Falcon 9 will launch Telstar 18 in early July TBD. And a Falcon 9 will launch the Telkom 4
communication satellite for Indonesia on late July TBD
.

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5413
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 3112
  • Likes Given: 3862
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #361 on: 04/19/2018 07:47 pm »
Anyone hear or be willing to bet that the next FH flight doesn’t happen until after the Crew Dragon demo flight?

Edit:  it looks like it’s drifting that way.  If it gets close one would think crew gets priority.
« Last Edit: 04/19/2018 07:48 pm by wannamoonbase »
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline abaddon

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3051
  • Liked: 3900
  • Likes Given: 5274
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #362 on: 04/19/2018 08:10 pm »
Quite possible Crew Dragon demo flight slides right too.  We'll just have to wait and see how things shake out.

Offline smoliarm

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 831
  • Moscow, Russia
  • Liked: 717
  • Likes Given: 611
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #363 on: 04/20/2018 12:26 am »
A lot of new info on SpaceX schedule in the last days, so here is the updated "FPIP":
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1704237#msg1704237

And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.
On this chart launch dates are recalculated in fraction of year, so that slopes of best-fit lines give us number of launches per year.
The best-fit for 2018 was calculated for performed launches.
So far SpaceX keep launch cadence almost 50% higher than in 2017 :)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48178
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81683
  • Likes Given: 36941
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #364 on: 04/20/2018 06:53 am »
And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.

Many thanks for that. Remarkable consistency within each of the last three years, with all launches close to the best fit lines. Clearly shows too the doubling of launch rate in 2 years. I wonder if Block 5 and the demands of Starlink will push it much higher?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48178
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81683
  • Likes Given: 36941
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #365 on: 04/20/2018 07:23 am »
Not a surprise but good to know still on track, even if next launch has slipped to Q3:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Expect a 'couple more' Falcon Heavy launches this year
EMRE KELLY  |  FLORIDA TODAY Updated 3 hours ago

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2018/04/19/spacex-shotwell-expect-couple-more-falcon-heavy-launches-year/535071002/

Offline smoliarm

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 831
  • Moscow, Russia
  • Liked: 717
  • Likes Given: 611
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #366 on: 04/20/2018 09:14 am »
And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.

... I wonder if Block 5 and the demands of Starlink will push it much higher?

Well, my guess is that the gain in tempo which we see this year is mostly because of the reused boosters.
Therefore, yes - theoretically, block 5 will (should) allow higher launch cadence.
Or at least, block 5 will make them closer to "launch on demand" scheme.
However, in reality I would expect no increase in launch tempo next year, just because it seems SpaceX don't have enough orders for that.
Also, I'd expect a bit lower launch rate in the second half of this year - due to Dragon v2 and STP missions.
AIUI, these launches are very demanding in both resources and manpower.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13463
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11864
  • Likes Given: 11086
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #367 on: 04/20/2018 04:39 pm »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6257
  • Liked: 4164
  • Likes Given: 6078
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #368 on: 04/20/2018 09:10 pm »
The 30-40 launches per year stated by GS indicates/allows another 50% increase next year (24ish --> 36ish). 

I also expect the Starlink launches to start next year, but not with test satellites; early generation satellites will be less capable, but getting started on working out the complexities of coordinated constellation operations should push the first batch out asap... from existing Seattle facilities, in a mostly hand-assembled production line.

The following year, 2020, should see a significant bump due to these deployments, but don't think we'll have much information or lead time in advance of actual launches.
« Last Edit: 04/20/2018 09:21 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5413
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 3112
  • Likes Given: 3862
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #369 on: 04/20/2018 09:20 pm »
The 30-40 launches per year stated by GS indicates/allows another 50% increase next year. 

I also expect the Starlink launches to start next year, but not with test satellites; early generation satellites will be less capable, but getting started on working out the complexities of coordinated constellation operations should push the first batch out asap... from existing Seattle facilities, in a mostly hand-assembled production line.

The following year, 2020, should see a significant bump due to these deployments, but don't think we'll have much information or lead time in advance of actual launches.

If SpaceX hits 25 launches this year they will eat up alot of their manifest.  They don't really need to go higher than 25 until there is more demand.  Starlink creates their own demand.  30 launches next year could give them 5-6 star link launches.

If they are recovering fairings by that time then their deployment costs will be very enviable.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6466
  • Liked: 4572
  • Likes Given: 5136
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #370 on: 04/20/2018 09:27 pm »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

You didn't restart this diversion Lar, but isn't this thread about the schedule of specific missions, rather than general discussions of launch cadence and hypothetical missions? 
The policy was to put missions on this Manifest when they are announced, either by a satellite provider or SpaceX, such as when Musk announced the beyond-the-moon tourist flight and the Red Dragon landings.
In accordance with this criterion, Starlink, for one, is not on the manifest, but "Mars" in 2022 is. 
There are threads specifically for launch cadence and backlog.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #371 on: 04/20/2018 09:32 pm »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

As of summer 2017, the public plan from Patricia Cooper was real launches beginning in 2019. It's pretty clear that dedicated launches wont happen until Block 5 is proven out as a highly reusable vehicle, but that could potentially be as soon as later this year :D

Offline DaveJes1979

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 319
  • Toontown, CA
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #372 on: 04/24/2018 08:33 pm »
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10205
  • US
  • Liked: 13885
  • Likes Given: 5933
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #373 on: 04/24/2018 08:39 pm »
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.

Iridium 7 and 8 shouldn't be expendable, probably ASDS.  There are a number of other missions coming up on the West Coast and most of them will be less than half the mass of an Iridium mission (not sure how much mass the Spaceflight rideshares will end up with.)

Offline Michael Baylor

  • NSF Reporter
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 901
  • Liked: 4868
  • Likes Given: 865
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #374 on: 04/28/2018 04:46 am »
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.
Both SAOCOM launches are pretty obvious candidates. Those won't be until later in the year though.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2018 04:47 am by Michael Baylor »

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #375 on: 04/28/2018 05:00 am »
FWIW, JRTI now has two thrusters installed and two more onboard. Should be ready to return to action fairly soon.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10205
  • US
  • Liked: 13885
  • Likes Given: 5933
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #376 on: 05/08/2018 05:37 pm »
Iridium 7 is NET July 9 with ASDS landing per the FCC STA requests for launch communications and stage recovery filed today.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13463
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11864
  • Likes Given: 11086
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #377 on: 05/08/2018 10:35 pm »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

You didn't restart this diversion Lar, but isn't this thread about the schedule of specific missions, rather than general discussions of launch cadence and hypothetical missions? 
The policy was to put missions on this Manifest when they are announced, either by a satellite provider or SpaceX, such as when Musk announced the beyond-the-moon tourist flight and the Red Dragon landings.
In accordance with this criterion, Starlink, for one, is not on the manifest, but "Mars" in 2022 is. 
There are threads specifically for launch cadence and backlog.

Correct. Cadence, Starlink, even JRTI thruster status, off topic.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48178
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81683
  • Likes Given: 36941
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #378 on: 05/10/2018 06:44 pm »
Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

[...]

Hmm, double would be 36 and China may do 40 launches this year. So is Elon ‘rounding up’ or are we missing some launches on the manifest? The former seems more likely to me.

Offline smoliarm

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 831
  • Moscow, Russia
  • Liked: 717
  • Likes Given: 611
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #379 on: 05/11/2018 09:56 am »
Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

[...]

Hmm, double would be 36 and China may do 40 launches this year. So is Elon ‘rounding up’ or are we missing some launches on the manifest? The former seems more likely to me.

Well, IIRC, recently Gwynne said they plan to do 26 to 30 launches this year. On other occasion she noted they are going to make "about 50% more launches" than in 2017. Which is consistent with the first one (18*1.5 = 27).
So basically we have here a good example of scale coefficient for conversion of "Elon's numbers" into "Gwynne's":
Her 50% equal to "double" in Elon's scale.

And with respect to China -
I doubt that Elon keeps close attention on Chinese launch plans. Last year China launched 18 times, in 2016 they did 22 launches... So my guess, Elon just assumes something similar for this year too.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1