Author Topic: ISS to be extended to 2024  (Read 16333 times)

Offline USFdon

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ISS to be extended to 2024
« on: 01/08/2014 03:05 am »
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-space-station-extension-20140107,0,3847257.story

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According to documents obtained by the Orlando Sentinel, NASA plans to announce this week that it has White House approval to extend the station's operations by four years until 2024.

Exciting News!

Offline woods170

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #1 on: 01/08/2014 06:01 am »
Crashing the party...

From here: http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/38968europe-to-consider-radically-streamlined-supplier-base-for-next-generation

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Also to be decided by ESA governments in December is what direction Europe should take in long-term space exploration. France has reluctantly agreed to continue financing the international space station until 2020 in return for Germany’s participation in the Ariane program. It is not yet certain, Le Gall said, whether Germany wants to continue its leading role in Europe’s space station effort beyond 2020.

Quote
In a written response to SpaceNews inquiries, Johann-Dietrich Woerner, chairman of the German Aerospace Center, DLR, agreed that Germany has not yet decided whether to urge its space station partners — the United States, Russia, Japan and Canada in addition to the rest of Europe — to keep the station operational to 2028. Germany is Europe’s biggest space station supporter.

Basically put: If the above reporting is correct than the two biggest ESA contributors to the ISS are not sure if they wish to continue beyond 2020.

Offline sdsds

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #2 on: 01/08/2014 06:04 am »
Basically put: If the above reporting is correct than the two biggest ESA contributors to the ISS are not sure if they wish to continue beyond 2020.

How would you characterize the impact to ISS if ESA were to drop support beyond 2020?
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Offline woods170

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #3 on: 01/08/2014 06:21 am »
Basically put: If the above reporting is correct than the two biggest ESA contributors to the ISS are not sure if they wish to continue beyond 2020.

How would you characterize the impact to ISS if ESA were to drop support beyond 2020?
That's easy: no more Euronauts on ISS, and Columbus operations will be impacted. MCC for Columbus is in Europe. If and when ESA decides to discontinue ISS ops beyond 2020, it will impact Columbus ops.
Other than that I don't see too much difference, other than perhaps that the station will be ditched late 2024 in stead of late 2028.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2014 06:25 am by woods170 »

Offline USFdon

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #4 on: 01/08/2014 06:32 am »
That's easy: no more Euronauts on ISS, and Columbus operations will be impacted. MCC for Columbus is in Europe. If and when ESA decides to discontinue ISS ops beyond 2020, it will impact Columbus ops.
Other than that I don't see too much difference, other than perhaps that the station will be ditched late 2024 in stead of late 2028.

Makes sense. Splitting right down the middle between 2020 & 2028 seems to be a good compromise. If this can get agreed upon by all of the various players, it will hopefully make Commercial Cargo/Crew more worth it. Maybe NASA will get some more service modules in exchange from the ESA to cover their costs.

Offline manboy

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #5 on: 01/08/2014 12:27 pm »
That's easy: no more Euronauts on ISS, and Columbus operations will be impacted. MCC for Columbus is in Europe. If and when ESA decides to discontinue ISS ops beyond 2020, it will impact Columbus ops.
Other than that I don't see too much difference, other than perhaps that the station will be ditched late 2024 in stead of late 2028.

Makes sense. Splitting right down the middle between 2020 & 2028 seems to be a good compromise. If this can get agreed upon by all of the various players, it will hopefully make Commercial Cargo/Crew more worth it. Maybe NASA will get some more service modules in exchange from the ESA to cover their costs.
Well I'm hoping that it eventually gets extended to 2028 for the 30th anniversary of the launch of Zarya. Also if it gets extended to 2028 it gives us more time to decide what to do with Dragon, Cygnus and the Commercial Crew vehicle post-ISS.
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Offline robertross

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #6 on: 01/08/2014 01:08 pm »
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-space-station-extension-20140107,0,3847257.story

Quote
According to documents obtained by the Orlando Sentinel, NASA plans to announce this week that it has White House approval to extend the station's operations by four years until 2024.

Exciting News!

Way overdue in my books.

From previous readings, many science experiments were held back from being pursued because they weren't sure how long NASA & the IPs would keep the ISS operational. No point building an experiment if it only got to stay on the ground because the ISS was to be decommissioned in short order.

It's always about the money. Still hoping for longer than 2024 though.

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #7 on: 01/08/2014 01:23 pm »
Crashing the party...

From here: http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/38968europe-to-consider-radically-streamlined-supplier-base-for-next-generation

Quote
Also to be decided by ESA governments in December is what direction Europe should take in long-term space exploration. France has reluctantly agreed to continue financing the international space station until 2020 in return for Germany’s participation in the Ariane program. It is not yet certain, Le Gall said, whether Germany wants to continue its leading role in Europe’s space station effort beyond 2020.

Quote
In a written response to SpaceNews inquiries, Johann-Dietrich Woerner, chairman of the German Aerospace Center, DLR, agreed that Germany has not yet decided whether to urge its space station partners — the United States, Russia, Japan and Canada in addition to the rest of Europe — to keep the station operational to 2028. Germany is Europe’s biggest space station supporter.

Basically put: If the above reporting is correct than the two biggest ESA contributors to the ISS are not sure if they wish to continue beyond 2020.

The quote below is also important:

Quote
Asked whether France, which is spending some 270 million euros per year on the space station, would favor an extension to 2028, Le Gall declined to answer outright, saying France’s priority is to find an agreement with Germany with respect to the station.


It seems to imply that France could be convinced to support ISS extension to 2028 if Germany were to accept something else that France supports.


Offline Chris Bergin

Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #8 on: 01/08/2014 02:50 pm »
Got to be about this, I'd assume....everyone having a teleconference around the same time (SNC, Orbital and this).

January 8, 2014
MEDIA ADVISORY M14-007

NASA Hosts Media Teleconference Today to Discuss International Space Station

NASA will host a teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EST today, Jan. 8, to update media on plans for the International Space Station.

The teleconference participants are:
-- William Gerstenmaier, associate administrator for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate
-- Sam Scimemi, director of NASA's International Space Station Program.

The teleconference will be streamed live online at:

http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio

For more information about the International Space Station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station
« Last Edit: 01/08/2014 02:50 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline Danderman

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #9 on: 01/08/2014 11:00 pm »
There should be some thought given as to how to spend less to operate the station.

For France alone to be spending hundreds of millions of Euros each year for ISS participation is kind of crazy, unless France is funding ATV heavily.  If Elon can develop an entire launch system and fly rockets for that kind of cash, France should be achieving something dramatic with that level of spending.

Offline yg1968

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Offline yg1968

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Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #12 on: 01/09/2014 02:03 am »
Got to be about this, I'd assume....everyone having a teleconference around the same time (SNC, Orbital and this).

January 8, 2014
MEDIA ADVISORY M14-007

NASA Hosts Media Teleconference Today to Discuss International Space Station

NASA will host a teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EST today, Jan. 8, to update media on plans for the International Space Station.

The teleconference participants are:
-- William Gerstenmaier, associate administrator for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate
-- Sam Scimemi, director of NASA's International Space Station Program.

The teleconference will be streamed live online at:

http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio

For more information about the International Space Station, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/station

Here is the (zipped) audio recording (mp3) of that press conference:
http://www.gamefront.com/files/23969385/ISS+2024+Extension+Press+Conference+January+8+2014.zip
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 02:06 am by yg1968 »

Offline owais.usmani

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #13 on: 01/09/2014 06:46 am »
I was thinking if this decision was, at least partly, influenced by the recent delay in Russian MLM. I guess it won't make sense to ditch the ISS in 2020 when the MLM has just arrived.

Offline Mapperuo

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #14 on: 01/09/2014 07:21 am »
I was thinking if this decision was, at least partly, influenced by the recent delay in Russian MLM. I guess it won't make sense to ditch the ISS in 2020 when the MLM has just arrived.

Doesn't make much sense to ditch it after just 4 years either.  :-[
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #15 on: 01/09/2014 07:29 am »
I was thinking if this decision was, at least partly, influenced by the recent delay in Russian MLM. I guess it won't make sense to ditch the ISS in 2020 when the MLM has just arrived.

Or start working out how to attach the MLM to a replacement spacestation.  It presumably has a Common Berthing Module.

Offline woods170

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #16 on: 01/09/2014 08:06 am »
I was thinking if this decision was, at least partly, influenced by the recent delay in Russian MLM. I guess it won't make sense to ditch the ISS in 2020 when the MLM has just arrived.

Or start working out how to attach the MLM to a replacement spacestation.  It presumably has a Common Berthing Module.
Before ISS is ditched MLM and it's associated UM and NEM modules will be disconnected from the ISS at the MLM-Zvezda separation plane. This mini-station will then be the core of the Russian successsor to ISS (OPSEK).

Offline Oli

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #17 on: 01/09/2014 10:12 am »

Not surprising, but what about congress?

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #18 on: 01/09/2014 03:24 pm »
Mikulski tweeted that she was happy about it. During the press conference, they said that the importance of ISS was not hard to sell to Congress.

Offline baldusi

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Re: ISS to be extended to 2024
« Reply #19 on: 01/09/2014 04:09 pm »
Let's see, 2024 is far enough in the future that fat budgets might just get back, the China syndrome might scare the US Congress enough to go on, and may be a clear path to a commercial station might appear. Let's not forget the India might get interested in this by 2018 or so.
On the other hand, JAXA also pointed to lower their crewed share of their budget. I guess this was a NASA move to buy 4 more years out of the partners that would have accepted no extension and would have said straight no to a whole 8 years one.
BTW, that's 8 years of Cargo Services to procure after CRS1 and 7 to 8 of Crew. Those are nice steady contracts with known technology and costs. Of course some breakthrough technology might be able to lower the costs, but I wouldn't count on that. In any case Commercial Crew aligns pretty well with Commercial Cargo, so I wouldn't discount a dual bidding process (with people able to bid on one, the other of both) that might help close a second crew service, if they can do a bit of cargo. I'm just saying.
If I had to bet, SpaceX is the strongest candidate to have a piece of each cake. I think Orbital's case is very strong, too, because they offer capabilities that are not easy to duplicate with a dual use vehicle. And an eight year contract might enable them to invest in a solution to the AJ26 scarcity problem. Ironically, ATK case could be a very strong contender, if they had an equivalent maturity as CST-100/DreamChaser/DragonRider and Atlas V/Falcon 9 (which they don't have). Both CST-100 and Dream Chaser can do Cargo, but I wonder if they can beat the Dragon's price. As I say, I simply don't see any competition to the Cygnus, unless some sort of hybrid US/JAXA or US/ESA contraption is made. Which US company have a good cheap LEO bus, have great integration skills, aren't already competing and are actually allowed to compete?. I can only think of a trunk for the cargo version of the CST-100. But given where they have their propulsion, this would little commonality with the crewed SM.

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