Author Topic: Predictions 2023  (Read 53221 times)

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #40 on: 12/30/2022 06:11 pm »
Japan
- H3 launches within a week of it’s current scheduled launch date (February 12th)
- HTV-X isn’t delayed any more than it already has been, and makes good progress towards its 2024 launch.
- Epsilon return to launch occurs within the year, and is successful.
- Some visible progress from Space One. Couldn’t begin to guess what form that would take.
H-IIA retires gracefully. All successes.

India
- Gaganyaan G1, the first uncrewed test of India’s crew capsule, launches successfully in December.

Arianespace
- Ariane 6 first flight is delayed until after the 1st quarter of 2024.
- Vega remains grounded all year.
  Sorry Europe….

SpaceX (Inspired/stolen from sdsds):
- Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 2-5 times
- One Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy, but not an actual orbit.
    - There are endless arguments about how to categorize this flight.
- Overall number of Falcon 9 launches is actually smaller than 2022, though perhaps not by much.

SLS/Orion
- To widespread shock, Artemis 2 stays on its current track, with no further delays.
- Something about Orion’s condition after Artemis 1 comes to light. There is a lot of shouting about this something, but it ultimately does not matter.

ISS
- Starliner has a successful Crewed flight to ISS in 2023, but not until the second half of the year.
- Cygnus launches to the ISS on a Falcon 9 in Q4.
- Dreamchaser cargo launches summer 2023.

Other NASA crewed Programs
- The Dynetics ALPACA is selected as the alternate lunar lander.
- Blue Origin throws the corporate tantrum of the century over the above.
- Axiom’s station project continues without major issue, though there may be a delay of a few months.
- Significant funding is allocated for Orbital Reef and Starlab.

New Intermediate Launchers (American)
- Vulcan launches in the first quarter, without Astrobotic. It’s a flawless flight.
- New Glenn rolls out to the pad, and even makes a launch attempt, but does not launch in 2023.
- Against all odds, Neutron and Antares 330 both seem to remain on track to launch in 2024.
- Firefly/NG announces plans for ‘MLV’ to launch in 2025.
- Stoke Space has an extremely successful hop test campaign with their upper stage.
- Promising progress is made on Terran R, perhaps a hopper test campaign using the Aeon R engine.
- Despite that, Terran R is delayed.

New 1-ton Launchers (American)
- ABL’s RS1, Relativity’s Terran 1, and a Firefly Alpha all leave the pad during Q1 of the year.
- RS1 and Terran 1 each leave the pad twice in 2023.
- RS1 gets off the pad before Terran 1, by less than a fortnight.
- RS1 leaves the pad between January 9th and 13th.
- Either RS1 or Terran 1 makes orbit on its very first flight.

Operational Small Launch (American?)
- Electron launches successfully from Wallops in January.
- 1-3 more Electrons launch from Wallops in 2023.
- 8+ Electron launches overall in 2023.
- Virgin Orbit conducts the first orbital launch from “British soil”.
- That is literally the only Virgin Orbit flight all year, and I’m very sad about it.

Other
- PLD Space’s Miura 1 launches in the first half of the year.
- Dawn Aerospace conducts a successful test series using the current vehicle, with its rocket engine now installed.
- Dawn Aerospace continues to be viewed with severe skepticism on this forum nonetheless.
- Skyrora’s first orbital launch attempt is delayed to 2024.
- Orbex rolls a vehicle out to the pad.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #41 on: 01/01/2023 02:49 am »
Okay here goes:

75 F9 launches in 2023. 5 launches between Falcon Heavy and Starship

Starship stack finally flies this year

12 crewed space flights (orbital and suborbital) in 2023.

350+ space launch attempts (orbital and suborbital) in 2023. (317 in 2022 as per Wikipedia)

Vulcan makes its launch debut this year. So does Terran 1. Ariane 6 moves to 2024.

Firefly has more hiccups but goes operational late in the year.

Astra folds.

Virgin Orbit flies from Britain, and is “saved by the bell” from suffering Astra’s fate.

Rocket Lab finally makes double digits, flies from Wallops, gets a helicopter recovery.

JUICE and Psyche finally launch successfully this year. Euclid does as well.

HAKUTO successfully lands on the Moon. At least one of the CLPS missions flies successfully as well.

Artemis II still officially planned for 2024 at the end of the year, though there will be some growing chatter about early 2025.

Artemis II crew named mid year, later than expected. CDR McClain, PLT Glover, MS Kutryk, MS Hague

New Shepard returns to flight, though cadence is fairly limited. 4 flights, 2 crewed.

Virgin Galactic flies one test flight above McDowell Line before end of year.

Xuntian telescope launches but suffers problems. Mission lost.

Chinese fly about same number of missions as this year, space station stays occupied.

Gaganyaan first test flight pushed into 2024. As is Chandrayaan 3.

Japanese HIII debuts.

South Koreans launch another satellite with their homegrown launch vehicle.

European Vega-C launch failure report released. Ariane 5 flies out its last missions successfully.

One nation makes its orbital launch debut to join the ranks of spacefaring nations.

Ukraine War ends dramatically but world no closer to peace as another hotspot erupts. Spaceflight and world economy affected. Geopolitically 2023 is more impactful than 1991.

First TRAPPIST data from Webb published in peer review. TRAPPIST 1b has no atmosphere. Inconclusive with other planets in the system.

Webb helps find the first confirmed exomoon

By end of 2023 Webb breaks record for most distant galaxy ever found.

Webb also finds something that could rewrite cosmology.

Major earthquake hits a facility important to spaceflight, somewhere in the world, does damage.

Number of confirmed exoplanets passes 6000 by end of year.

I build another spaceflight related model.

New Prediction: Dream Chaser will be at the Cape being prepped for flight by December, but first flight NET Q1 2024
« Last Edit: 01/08/2023 07:46 pm by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Skamp_X

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #42 on: 01/01/2023 03:07 am »
Artimis 2 net 2025
star ship orbital test before end of year.
Hardware made to transport starships with boats between Boca Chica and cape
Demos or phobos gets major work done to catch booster and/or starship
Plans will explain 2nd tower at cape will be for catching booster only , at first, launch from first tower.
Legs' on star ship have a comeback.
No contact with ET
First EXo moon is confirmed
New pluto sized object is found in outer solar system
Voyager 1 stops transmitting (really hope not)


Offline jdon759

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #43 on: 01/01/2023 05:25 am »
Haven't made predictions before, I'll start easy.

Several rockets will launch to space.  At least one of these will go BEO.
More than one rocket will reach orbit using CH4 as a fuel. 

At least one surprise development will occur, pleasing most people. There may also be several disappointments, though these will likely not be surprises (since most space enthusiasts have learned to be somewhat pessimistic).

Jaems

Edit #1:  removed several double-posts.
Edit #2:  did not add any more predictions.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2023 07:02 pm by jdon759 »
Where would we be today if our forefathers hadn't dreamt of where they'd be tomorrow?  (For better and worse)

Offline marcus79

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #44 on: 01/01/2023 10:05 am »
India will have a good 2023, with succesful missions of their test crew spacecraft and lunar mission.

China will have a good 2023 too, but not so spectacular, mostly laying the groundwork for future years. The ZQ-2 will launch succesfully, as will the Xuntian space telescope.

In the USA, Vulcan will be launced succesfully. Starship orbital will launch in Spring and clear the tower, but not achieve orbit. Another attempt in Autumn is succesful in reaching orbit, however the re-entry is a failure. The pressures on SpaceX and the finances of Musk will grow given the economic situation. A reusable booster and expandable tanker variant might be explored to support the HLS.

Russia will give us some dramatics, but its program is at a standstill development wise with R&D capacity diverted to military technology. One solution they might seek is to cooperate with the Chinese on nuclear technology (Zevs/TEM).

Europe, same old.

Japan, same old too.

Space science will bring more spectacular findings, we are getting to a golden age in this regard.

Orbital debris sadly will be an even bigger topic in 2023, but more steps will be taken to implement changes to mitigate it (as a topic it will enter diplomatic circles at a higher level, given the economic and security aspects of space).
« Last Edit: 01/01/2023 10:12 am by marcus79 »

Offline Jeff Lerner

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #45 on: 01/01/2023 11:27 am »
The only prediction I will make is that Elon Musk will no longer be the CEO of Twitter and will get back his focus to getting to Mars.

Offline Blackhavvk

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #46 on: 01/01/2023 03:54 pm »
US There will be almost 100 launches. Some accidents for small private rockets. Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash. Starship will carry out a mission with a controversial outcome, which some will consider a success and some a failure. About 65 Falcons will be launched, all successful.
CN No significant events. About 70 launches. Several failures with light carriers.
RU Over 30 launches. MS-23 will fly empty, cosmonauts and astronaut will remain until MS-24. The MS-22 will return empty with no problem. Luna 25 will land successfully. There will be no launch of Angrara from Vostochny, it will be postponed to 2024. There will be at least 2 launches of A5 from Plesetsk. Soyuz 5 will not be launched and will be scheduled for a new launch site in Russia.
EU Only 3 starts. The Ariane 6 will only have one test flight, the Vega won't be cleared until 2024.
IN 7 launches. Chandrayan will land successfully, more delays on the manned program. SSLV successful.
JP 3 launches. H-3 successful.
IR, SK and NK All at least one successful launch.
All at least one successful launch.

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #47 on: 01/01/2023 04:25 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

Online Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #48 on: 01/01/2023 04:45 pm »
NASA
   Announces crew for Artemis II by July 4th
   Gets 2 more countries to sign Artemis Accords
   Proposals for lunar habitat emerge
   Continued progress on Artemis II
      EUS on schedule
      Costs stay ridiculously high
   Budget proposed late 2023 for 2024 will be roughly equal to inflation increase

Blue origin
   New Glenn gets pulled out to pad by end of summer. (at least first stage)
      Set of flight engines for first booster mounted on First stage by end of July
                Start test firing of engines on pad by end of year
                Reusable second stage will have small wings like first stage for greater cross range on landing and
                          bleed off speed higher in atmosphere to reduce heating of stage body.
      Make official that three variants of reusable upper stage are planned for coming decade
         Cargo (capable of rendezvous and docking payload)
            Recoverable launch shroud fished out of water
            Pressurized cargo module with new larger docking hatch for Orbital Reef station
         Tanker can go lunar orbit and back /w refueling
         Crewed with up to 8 passengers and crew, (LEO and LUNAR orbit)

   HLS proposal now fully reusable from beginning.  Can use Lox from Moon to increase cargo capacity
                for return to orbit.

Small launch providers
   Several will start going out of business because too many exist for potential market

SpaceX
   Starship to orbit on first attempt Q1 2023
   Mechazilla landing attempt successful Q3
   No in orbit refueling before end of year
        HLS progress stays on schedule
                Basic cabin and cargo bay design done.

Virgin galactic
   Still don’t care

ULA
   Vulcan Successfully puts Peregrine Lunar Lander on course to Moon Q2
                Peregrine successfully lands on Moon
                Gets at least four more sets of BE-4 flight engines for Vulcan in 2023
                2 more successful flights by end of year

Boeing
        CST-100 one flight with crew to ISS


Offline Blackhavvk

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #49 on: 01/01/2023 04:55 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
A few reasons.
1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.
2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.
3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.
But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.
PS Thx

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #50 on: 01/01/2023 07:41 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
A few reasons.
1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.
2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.
3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.
But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.
PS Thx
In reference to your point, Israel's Beresheet was a privately-funded lander, but India's Chandrayaan-2 was state-owned.
Back to the topic:  I'd like to add 'Beresheet-1' and 'Chandrayaan-3' landings to 2023, but I don't know if either is planned for this year.
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #51 on: 01/01/2023 07:51 pm »
Look to 2024 for Beresheet 2, but Chandrayaan 3 is targeted for some time in the summer of 2023 (at the moment)

Beresheet 2 link:

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3912152,00.html

Offline Blackhavvk

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #52 on: 01/01/2023 08:03 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
A few reasons.
1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.
2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.
3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.
But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.
PS Thx
In reference to your point, Israel's Beresheet was a privately-funded lander, but India's Chandrayaan-2 was state-owned.
Back to the topic:  I'd like to add 'Beresheet-1' and 'Chandrayaan-3' landings to 2023, but I don't know if either is planned for this year.
Chandrayan's failure was unexpected. But it should be noted that India has significantly less experience in space than the US, Russia or China.

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #53 on: 01/01/2023 08:27 pm »
Forgot to do predictions for 2022, but I did pretty poorly for 2021. Let's see if I can do any better this year!

NASA:
- Artemis II is officially delayed at least into H2 2024, or maybe 2025
- PPE/HALO launch delayed to 2025 as well
- ML2 construction starts but is slow due to a lack of funding.
- Mars Sample Return really begins to take shape and has a good shot at actually happening.
- The "Habitable Worlds Observatory" (next big scope after Webb) begins planning and details are released. Same with the Lynx-derived X-ray telescope to follow it.
- The Uranus and Enceladus missions recommended by the Decadal Survey begin planning in earnest with some details released.

ULA:
- Vulcan's maiden launch goes smoothly, but Peregrine has an issue preventing it from landing successfully
- Dream Chaser debuts in H2 2023. Mission is a success, with a few first-launch issues that are corrected in flight.

Smallsats:
- Relativity's first launch ends in failure, but still provides a metric crapton of data. The next launch (with the first payloads) is successful.
- ABL also has a first-launch issue but succeeds on the second try.
- Rocket Lab performs their first Wallops launch successfully.
- Rocket Lab catches and recovers their first booster. No full booster refight, but more components fly again.
- Neutron development continues, and more test articles are shown off. No Archimedes firing.

Blue Origin:
- Successful return-to-flight of New Shepard, but it will be a few flights until a crew flies again.
    Extreme speculation: Issue of the NS-23 failure is from a procedure error (i.e. something done incorrectly during refurbishment, not a design issue).
- No New Glenn flight or vehicle on the pad this year. More test articles are made and slowly shown off. Qualification first stage is completed or nearly completed. Work on the first flight vehicle begins in earnest by the end of the year. In 2023, the flight is set for mid-2024, but will eventually slip to the end of 2024 or into 2025.

SpaceX (where I got most of my predictions wrong in 2021):
- SpaceX as a whole gets pretty close to 100 launches in 2023, but doesn't exactly hit it.
- No loss of Falcon missions, but one first stage fails to land.
- 4 Falcon Heavy missions in 2023. Psyche finally leaves the ground. We finally have a dual-ASDS landing.
- Polaris Dawn goes very smoothly. Polaris 2 (Polaris Noon?) planning is finalized as a Hubble reboost mission, with perhaps an EVA to visually inspect the telescope. No refurbishments or intrusive inspections will be performed.
- Starship's first orbital flight is in Q2 2023, or late Q1 at the earliest. Has a failure during flight that is corrected on the next flight a few months after.
- No non-Starlink payloads fly on Starship this year, with perhaps the exception of a few CubeSats or flight analysis payloads from NASA or the DoD.
- Dear Moon, to the shock of no one, does not fly this year, and probably won't before 2026 at the earliest.
- The 39A Starship pad is finished and the Roberts Road Starfactory and Mega Bay are completed. Test ring stacks and bulkheads are produced at the most, but no flight hardware. No Starship flights from 39A in 2023.
- Only 3-5 Starship flights in 2023, at most.
- A booster is successfully caught, after a previous mission demonstrates a water landing. No ships are caught or land on dry land. Perhaps one is recovered from the water.

International:
- ISS continues to operate well. iROSA installation and Nauka outfitting are completed. No loss of servicing missions.
- Ariane 6 slips into 2024, while Ariane 5 flies out its final missions successfully. Go JUICE!
- H3 launches successfully, paving the way for HTV-X and other missions.
- Vega-C returns to flight, but likely gets less commercial interest...

Misc.
- No discovery of Planet 9, but work continues.
« Last Edit: 01/01/2023 08:33 pm by IanThePineapple »

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #54 on: 01/02/2023 12:18 am »
Ian:  You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash.  Do you guys know something I don't know?  :)
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #55 on: 01/02/2023 02:21 pm »
Ian:  You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash.  Do you guys know something I don't know?  :)

No, they don't, and neither do I. But I also predict that Peregrine will crash. But that is just because I'm a hardcore cynic.

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #56 on: 01/03/2023 10:15 am »
Ian:  You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash.  Do you guys know something I don't know?  :)

No, they don't, and neither do I. But I also predict that Peregrine will crash. But that is just because I'm a hardcore cynic.
To me a position that’s just as bad as a hardcore over optimist.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #57 on: 01/05/2023 02:17 am »
US There will be almost 100 launches. Some accidents for small private rockets. Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash. Starship will carry out a mission with a controversial outcome, which some will consider a success and some a failure. About 65 Falcons will be launched, all successful.
CN No significant events. About 70 launches. Several failures with light carriers.
RU Over 30 launches. MS-23 will fly empty, cosmonauts and astronaut will remain until MS-24. The MS-22 will return empty with no problem. Luna 25 will land successfully. There will be no launch of Angrara from Vostochny, it will be postponed to 2024. There will be at least 2 launches of A5 from Plesetsk. Soyuz 5 will not be launched and will be scheduled for a new launch site in Russia.
EU Only 3 starts. The Ariane 6 will only have one test flight, the Vega won't be cleared until 2024.
IN 7 launches. Chandrayan will land successfully, more delays on the manned program. SSLV successful.
JP 3 launches. H-3 successful.
IR, SK and NK All at least one successful launch.
All at least one successful launch.
Given hints by North Korea about preparing for launching a spy satellite this April, it may be more likely than not that the first DPRK spy satellite launch might take place around the 111th anniversary of Kim Il-Sung's birth, but whether the next launch of the Nuri SLV comes before the DPRK spy satellite launch remains to be seen.

Since the first orbital launch of the Dream Chaser is now scheduled for this summer and will be carried atop the Vulcan, and the USSF-112, USSF-106, and USSF-87 are scheduled for launch this year, there will be more than one Vulcan launch this year because the Vulcan is intended to replace the Atlas V and Delta IV Heavy.

I'm holding out the possibility that Starship will conduct its maiden orbital launch in early spring of this year.

Offline scienceguy

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e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline Skamp_X

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #59 on: 03/08/2023 12:26 am »
'Demos or phobos gets major work done to catch booster and/or starship' so much for that,
both got sold

 

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