Russian Launch Schedule - Discussion

[Alter Sachse]

I don't want to contradict Bart, but I would like to remind everyone that some satellites were “forgotten” in the
reports to the UN.

[B. Hendrickx]

I don't want to contradict Bart, but I would like to remind everyone that some satellites were “forgotten” in the
reports to the UN.

Yes, but those didn't get Kosmos numbers. The fact that the Kosmos-2558 subsatellite was not included in the report on the June 2025 launches indicates that it has not received a Kosmos number either and that the next one (Kosmos-2591) was given to one of the satellites launched by Angara-1.2 in August. But we'll have to wait for final confirmation of that until the UN Register of Space Objects is updated or Russia's report on its August 2025 launches is published.

[Alter Sachse]

Novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru has changed the numbering of the Kosmos satellites, possibly based on insider information.
Kosmos 2591 may be the subsatellite of Kosmos 2558?

Космос-2592 (14Ф178 ОО МКА №7), Космос-2593 (14Ф178 ОО МКА No 08), Космос-2594 (14Ф178 ОО МКА №9), Космос-2595 (14Ф178 ОО МКА №10)

(Angara 1.2 August 21)

Today we know for sure.
It was Kosmos 2591/92/93/94.

[Alter Sachse]

11 - August 21 (233:09:32:xx.xxx) - Kosmos-2591, Kosmos-2592, Kosmos-2593, Kosmos-2594 (OO MKA) [14F178] – Angara-A1.2/AM (71606/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1

I read somewhere that 71606 was manufactured for Roscosmos.
So the serial number won't be correct.

[GWR64]

TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos (Glonass-K2 №15L / Block K7) - Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat-M (x15000-xxx/112-25) - Plesetsk, 43/x

To my knowledge, there will not be a Glonass-K2 15L. Originally, only two Glonass-K satellites (11L and 12L) were planned. Then two Glonass-K2 prototypes (13L and 14L), followed by Glonass-K2 production satellites.

However, when problems arose with the development of the Glonass-K2, partly due to Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea, it was decided around 2015 to build nine additional Glonass-K satellites, numbered 15L through 23L.

The subsequently planned Glonass-K2 satellites begin with 24L.

[B. Hendrickx]

Various rocket stage impact warnings indicate there will be a launch of a solid-fuel ICBM from Plesetsk between December 3 and December 10 in the direction of the Kamchatka peninsula. The impact zones are typical for the Yars-M ICBM, but since a training launch of a standard Yars-M took place just a little over a month ago as part of a large-scale nuclear exercise, this could be a test launch of a new version of the rocket. Aside from a version known as 15P182, there is another one named Bureya. This essentially is the three-stage Yars with a solid-fuel "kick stage" mounted on top. The Russian term for that stage (dovodochnaya stupen) is usually used in the context of space rockets (mainly the Start-1(M) rocket), but it's not clear what its purpose is on Bureya.

Chanches that this launch is space-related are slim, but you never know...

[B. Hendrickx]

Various rocket stage impact warnings indicate there will be a launch of a solid-fuel ICBM from Plesetsk between December 3 and December 10 in the direction of the Kamchatka peninsula. The impact zones are typical for the Yars-M ICBM, but since a training launch of a standard Yars-M took place just a little over a month ago as part of a large-scale nuclear exercise, this could be a test launch of a new version of the rocket. Aside from a version known as 15P182, there is another one named Bureya. This essentially is the three-stage Yars with a solid-fuel "kick stage" mounted on top. The Russian term for that stage (dovodochnaya stupen) is usually used in the context of space rockets (mainly the Start-1(M) rocket), but it's not clear what its purpose is on Bureya.

Chanches that this launch is space-related are slim, but you never know...

Several Russian sources are reporting that a test launch of an ICBM took place from Plesetsk earlier today. No further details are available so far and we may not see any official announcements from the Ministry of Defense.

A correction to my earlier post: the "kick stage" actually turns out to be a fairly standard feature on these solid-fuel ICBMs to increase the accuracy of payload injection. It is not unique to Bureya, so there's no reason to believe that this launch is space-related.

[zubenelgenubi]

What might be the first Russian orbital launch after the New Year's holidays, January 1-8?

[B. Hendrickx]

What might be the first Russian orbital launch after the New Year's holidays, January 1-8?

Possibly the first dedicated launch of Bureau 1440's Rassvet satellites on a Soyuz-2 from Plesetsk. There was reportedly a practice rollout early last month, so the rocket and payload appear to be in a high state of readiness.