Shijian 21 - CZ-3B/G2 - Xichang - 24 October 2021 (01:27 UTC)

[zubenelgenubi]

This launch schedule has proven accurate thus far:

A user on the 9ifly posted this regarding to the launch schedule from Xichang for the remainder of the year. Knowing that launch opperations alternate between LC-2 and LC-3 we can determine several things. (The first two launches listed were Tianlian-1 05 and Yaogan-30 Group 10)
August 6th to August 8th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ChinaSat-2E
August 23th to August 25nd: LC-3 - CZ-3B - ?
September 8th to September 9th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ChinaSat-9B
September 23rd to September 25th: LC-3 - CZ-3B - ?
October 16th to October 18th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ?
November 2nd to November 4th: LC-3 - CZ-3B - ?
November 26th to November 28th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ?
December 13th to December 15th: LC-3 - CZ-2D - ?
December 29th to January 1st: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ?

As of this post, the satellite or satellites aboard are unknown.  Given the current circumstances regarding spaceflight coverage behind the digital Bamboo Curtain, the next information to work with may be launch NOTAM publication.

What are the sources for these?

China launch schedule
2021
?? - ?? - CZ-4B - XSLC, LC?

?? - Beidou-3 Buwang-1 - CZ-3C - XSLC, LC?

?? - ??, ?? - CZ-3B/G? (Y75) - XSLC, LC?

Changes on January 9th, 2020
Changes on September 10th, 2020
Changes on August 29, 2021

Hypothetical launch schedule:

China launch schedule

2021

October 24 16-18 TBD - Shijian-21 - CZ-3B/G2 - XSLC, LC2 - 01:27 ~01:22

Early November 2-4 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC3

November 26-28 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC2

December 13-15 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC3

December 29-January 1, 2022 - Tianji Guganwang Gaogui (×2) - CZ-3B/G3 - XSLC, LC2

TBD? TBD September 20 23 - Yaogan-30 Group-11, Tianqi-? "Yan'an-1" - CZ-2C (Y49) - XSLC, LC3?
thread

?? - ?? - CZ-2D - XSLC, LC?

?? - Beidou-3 Buwang-1(?) - CZ-3C - XSLC, LC?

?? - Jianyang-1- CZ-3B/G2 - XSLC, LC?

?? - TECHO-1 (Qingwang-1) - CZ-3B/G2 - XSLC, LC?

TBD July 5 (or 6) - Tianhui-3 (GEOSAR) - CZ-3B/G3 - XSLC, LC?
thread

?? - Zhongxing-6D - CZ-3B/G2 - XSLC, LC?

?? - ??, ?? - CZ-3B/G? (Y75) - XSLC, LC?

?? - ?? - CZ-4B - XSLC, LC?

Changes on May 6
Changes on June 11
Changes on June 19
Changes on June 22
Changes on June 29
Changes on July 1
Changes on July 2
Changes on July 12
Changes on August 1
Changes on September 23
Changes on October 18
Changes on October 19
Changes on October 24
zubenelgenubi

[Josh_from_Canada]

Launch has likely been postponed due to issues with SY-10.

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch has likely been postponed due to issues with SY-10.

Further on your thought:

If there are commonalities, yes, quite likely.

Apparently, the launch vehicle performed nominally.  Again, apparently, the problem or problems were with the spacecraft.

Are SY-10 and this mystery spacecraft the same make and model?  Or do they share critical components?  🤔

[Josh_from_Canada]

Launch has likely been postponed due to issues with SY-10.

Further on your thought:

If there are commonalities, yes, quite likely.

Apparently, the launch vehicle performed nominally.  Again, apparently, the problem or problems were with the spacecraft.

Are SY-10 and this mystery spacecraft the same make and model?  Or do they share critical components?  🤔

I'm thinking they wanted to do an investigation on the whole situation to rule any issues the rocket could have caused. This would have put the launch campaigns for future CZ-3B missions on hold.

[Vahe231991]

Launch has likely been postponed due to issues with SY-10.

The Shiyan-10 satellite has reactivated itself, but time will tell if another CZ-3 launch from Xichang launch will happen this month.

[tehwkd]

A2699/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZPKM/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2815N10202E006
A) ZPKM B) 2110240115 C) 2110240145
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED CENTERED AT N2815E10202
WITH RADIUS OF 10KM. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. ALL ACFT ARE
FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA.
F) GND G) UNL

A2700/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZPKM/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2718N10808E026
A) ZPKM B) 2110240117 C) 2110240148
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N272159E1083650-N273125E1074313-N271528E1073946-N270603E1083315
BACK TO START. ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED AREA. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

A2701/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZXXX/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2603N11412E016
A) ZSHA ZGZU B) 2110240119 C) 2110240149
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N260808E1142921,N261444E1140013,N255857E1135553,N255223E1142456
BACK TO START. ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED AREA. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

[Josh_from_Canada]

About a week later then the launch schedule shared earlier this year.

[input~2]

An easier to decode format showing launch planned for October 24 at about 01:22 UTC

A2699/21 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED CENTERED AT N2815E10202 WITH RADIUS OF 10KM. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. ALL ACFT ARE
FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA. GND - UNL, 24 OCT 01:15
2021 UNTIL 24 OCT 01:45 2021. CREATED: 19 OCT 11:31 2021

[Liss]

Well, an unexpected launch time for a GTO launch from Xichang.
Only several spin-stabilized FY-2 meteosats were launched at about 01:00 UTC.
But the FY-2 series is over...

[Alter Sachse]

Beidou 3GEO 3 was launched at 01:43 UTC and was placed at 111E.

[input~2]

Chinasat-6D is intended for 125°E and could be a candidate.

[Josh_from_Canada]

Chinasat-6D is intended for 125°E and could be a candidate.

A Volga-Dnepr AN-124 transported a satellite from Beijing to Xichang on October 15th. If this was ChinaSat 6D then it's not launching on this upcoming mission.

[Josh_from_Canada]

Another possible candidate for this flight is a third TJS SIGNIT GEO satellite to join TJS-1 and TJS-4. But due to the 9ifly forum having it's Chinese launch threads locked, we probably won't know until after launch. 

[Liss]

Another (Taiwanese?) reservation:

P3905/21 NOTAMN
Q) RJJJ/QXXXX/IV/NBO/E/000/999/2208N12740E029
A) RJJJ B) 2110240121 C) 2110240154
E) DUE TO SPACEFLIGHT ACTIVITIES,THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT IN
FOLLOWING AREAS MAY BE AFFECTED ON OCT 24, 2021
DETAILS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
ON OCT 24, 2021, FROM 01:21-01:54 UTC
AREA:
220618N1281024E 222449N1271539E 220931N1270944E
215102N1280424E, FOUR-POINT CONNECTION RANGE.
VERTICAL ALTITUDE: SFC-UNL
RMK/ATC WILL NOT CLEAR IFR FLT THRU THIS AREA FOR THE FLIGHT SAFETY
F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 20 Oct 2021 03:23:00
SOURCE: RJAAYNYX

[input~2]

Another format below; this is for CZ-3B 2nd stage debris (White area in image below to be compared with Chinasat-9B similar area in orange, 20km East))

_{P3905/21 - DUE TO SPACEFLIGHT ACTIVITIES,THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT IN
FOLLOWING AREAS MAY BE AFFECTED ON OCT 24, 2021
DETAILS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
ON OCT 24, 2021, FROM 01:21-01:54 UTC
AREA:
220618N1281024E 222449N1271539E 220931N1270944E
215102N1280424E,FOUR-POINT CONNECTION RANGE.
VERTICAL ALTITUDE:SFC-UNL
RMK/ATC WILL NOT CLEAR IFR FLT THRU THIS AREA FOR THE FLIGHT SAFETY. SFC - UNL,
24 OCT 01:21 2021 UNTIL 24 OCT 01:54 2021. CREATED: 20 OCT 03:23 2021}

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Halfway across Kourou, this one has launched on time.

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1452088704718151688?t=4gG1Nz5HAY72H0G5hPa-qg&s=19

[Conexion Espacial]

T-0,01:27 UTC

[tehwkd]

0127 UTC, payload SJ-21



https://china.huanqiu.com/article/45IWwF20fix
https://m.weibo.cn/detail/4695763588744182

[Conexion Espacial]

https://twitter.com/conexionspacial/status/1452094864401829892?t=tYxfA_TEL21hKQ7xLDrlag&s=19

[Galactic Penguin SST]

SAST is the prime satellite contractor for this satellite, of which the official purpose is "validation of on orbit space debris reduction technologies".

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1452094701830426626?t=yI6BLfBUMwGZjm76o5g92Q&s=19