Author Topic: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?  (Read 17833 times)

Offline FransonUK

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #40 on: 10/22/2005 07:40 pm »
Yeah, if the Shuttle was just a crew transport, then they'd have a case.
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Offline Dogsbd

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #41 on: 10/23/2005 01:31 am »
Quote
realtime - 22/10/2005  2:15 PM

You're right, they are such different craft that it's hard to compare the two in any meaningful way.

Astronautix has it at $245 million at 6 flights/year, with an additional $63M "fly-away" unit cost, whatever that means.
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/shuttle.htm

And Soyuz is at $30-$50 million.
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/soyuzst.htm

I wonder how much STS would cost to operate if all the folks involved in making it fly were making the wages that the Russian space industry folks are making? Probably only about 25% as much as it cost us, and that would cut the disparity between Soyuz cost and STS cost even more. And considering the capabilities of STS above and beyond Soyuz....




Offline SRBseparama

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #42 on: 10/23/2005 02:35 am »
That is a good point. There is a huge difference in staff and support costs.

Offline realtime

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #43 on: 10/23/2005 02:54 am »
I'm sure you're not suggesting the NASA staff is overpaid. ;)  

The difference in operating costs for Soyuz and STS boils down to this:  Soyuz is an expendable 3-person capsule.  Shuttle is a man-rated reusable heavy-lift spaceplane the size of a 737 that can carry almost as much cargo back from orbit as it can to LEO.  It takes a lot of highly skilled and motivated people to keep STS flying, and unless the goal is to demotivate that workforce and force them into the streets, they should be paid not exorbitantly, but well.

When optimizing, look for the biggest resource hog.  It's not the wages.  It's the basic STS system itself, which was a grand endeavor from which we learned a lot, but whose architecture was flawed by basic assumptions.  Side mounted crew vehicle.  No launch escape system.  High projected launch rates that turned out to be too optimistic.

The VSE will correct a lot of these, and the STS will be retired with honor.


Offline lmike

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #44 on: 10/23/2005 04:59 am »
In here: http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:GYL8_-q9b8AJ:www.nasa.gov/columbia/caib/PDFS/VOL6/H01.PDF+shuttle+workforce+size&hl=en , page 9., they mention that there are 16000 (3K NASA + 13K contractors)  people servicing the STS program every year.  At whatever wages, that's a lot...  The last 2 years produced 1 launch 'costing' about 8 billion dollars.


Offline realtime

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #45 on: 10/23/2005 05:27 am »
$4 billion/year divvied among 16000 mouths...  Hey, any of you NASA dudes making $250K?

Actually, for a typical employee, 40-50% of costs are going to be benefits -- medical, etc.  Hmmm.  Add in hardware, expendables.  Maybe I shouldn't dismiss the personnel costs so fast.  It'd be nice to see a breakdown.

Still, NASA has said that it doesn't expect to greatly reduce its workforce after STS.  They intend to use them for VSE development and missions.  I don't know if that's a little white lie, or if they expect attrition to take care of the downsizing that's almost sure to come.


Offline realtime

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #46 on: 10/23/2005 05:48 am »
Budget request summary for NASA FY06-FY10.

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/107493main_FY_06_budget_summ.pdf

What do these numbers tell us?  Looks like one shuttle will be retired in 2007-2008, with another to follow in 2009.  Either that or flights are reduced.  Even a single flight can greatly impact the bottom line, as you said.

Toward the bottom (SUM 1-20, page 21):

Quote
FY 2006 highlights include:

2.390 billion for salaries and benefits and $74.9 million for travel for 18,798 full time equivalent personnel.
Salaries are included in G&A or program direct costs as appropriate.
Looks like 14.5% of the budget is NASA workforce (all departments).   Does "full time equivalent" count contractor workforce?



Offline lmike

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #47 on: 10/23/2005 05:50 am »
Of course, the fixed yearly expenses are only partially labor costs, but I think it's a substantial percentage of the total.  The one thing about the CEV advantages as far as it goes, is that the expendables+ (non-reusable?) capsules production can be more automated.  The STS requires, AFAIK, mostly high expertise, highly specialized, and mostly hand labor (I've read there are ~200 people spraying foam on the ETs, people going through the tiles by hand vs. a prefabricated bolt-on heat shield on the CEV, etc...)  That's expensive.

Offline realtime

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #48 on: 10/23/2005 05:56 am »
Yep.  Consider that Russia throughout its collapse and retrenchment managed to continue its space program and run it on a shoestring.  There's a lot to be said for simplicity.


Offline Flightstar

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #49 on: 10/23/2005 03:49 pm »
Quote
realtime - 23/10/2005  12:48 AM

Budget request summary for NASA FY06-FY10.

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/107493main_FY_06_budget_summ.pdf

What do these numbers tell us?  Looks like one shuttle will be retired in 2007-2008, with another to follow in 2009.  Either that or flights are reduced.  Even a single flight can greatly impact the bottom line, as you said.

Toward the bottom (SUM 1-20, page 21):

Quote
FY 2006 highlights include:

2.390 billion for salaries and benefits and $74.9 million for travel for 18,798 full time equivalent personnel.
Salaries are included in G&A or program direct costs as appropriate.
Looks like 14.5% of the budget is NASA workforce (all departments).   Does "full time equivalent" count contractor workforce?


It shows how much NASA spends on managers and covering its own ass. Over 2 billion to MSFC as per usual.

Offline Avron

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #50 on: 10/24/2005 02:36 am »
Quote
Flightstar - 23/10/2005  11:49 AM
It shows how much NASA spends on managers and covering its own ass. Over 2 billion to MSFC as per usual.

What does MSFC do ? Just manage the contracts? Do they have any say over JPL or are used by JPL?

Also note that most on the poll, follow the direction given by EH.. Bush..

Offline GirlygirlShuttlefan

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #51 on: 10/25/2005 11:28 pm »
Well I think that is pretty conclusive on the poll results so far.

Offline Flightstar

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #52 on: 10/26/2005 12:55 am »
Quote
GirlygirlShuttlefan - 25/10/2005  6:28 PM

Well I think that is pretty conclusive on the poll results so far.

As it should do, but that mirrors all recent polls in several areas. Shows the ones that do not respect the Shuttle simply are a vocal minority.

Offline ADC9

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #53 on: 10/26/2005 03:46 am »
Quote
Flightstar - 25/10/2005  7:55 PM

Quote
GirlygirlShuttlefan - 25/10/2005  6:28 PM

Well I think that is pretty conclusive on the poll results so far.

As it should do, but that mirrors all recent polls in several areas. Shows the ones that do not respect the Shuttle simply are a vocal minority.

I've noticed that too. I'd expect this result here, but USA Today went with 75 per cent in favour of the Shuttle continuing to its normal end of life too.

Offline kraisee

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #54 on: 10/26/2005 03:57 am »
Quote
realtime - 23/10/2005  1:27 AM
Still, NASA has said that it doesn't expect to greatly reduce its workforce after STS.  They intend to use them for VSE development and missions.  I don't know if that's a little white lie, or if they expect attrition to take care of the downsizing that's almost sure to come.

I understand that 15-20% of NASA's current staff numbers (not sure about contractors) are actually due to retire within the next five years.

NASA says that natural workforce attrition will be plenty enough to trim the budgets by the amounts they'd like over that time.   Thus they aren't planning redundancies within NASA itself.

Of course it still necessitates a lot of reorganisation of current "personnel assets", but that seems well underway right now if KSC is any sort of guide.
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Online Chris Bergin

RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #55 on: 10/26/2005 09:08 am »
I think it's a little higher than 15-20 per cent, but that is correct.
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Offline UK Shuttle Clan

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #56 on: 10/26/2005 11:45 am »
I think everyone who likes what the Shuttle has achieved knows it's time (2010) to retire them. I get very angry when people think we want them to stay forever. They had a job to do and they had it changed several times and still managed to do it successfully for over 100 flights plus. People are too fast to maon as if they are really safe and have problems when of course it is never safe, and neither with the CEV be.

Offline GirlygirlShuttlefan

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #57 on: 10/26/2005 01:16 pm »
Quote
UK Shuttle Clan - 26/10/2005  6:45 AM

I think everyone who likes what the Shuttle has achieved knows it's time (2010) to retire them. I get very angry when people think we want them to stay forever. They had a job to do and they had it changed several times and still managed to do it successfully for over 100 flights plus. People are too fast to maon as if they are really safe and have problems when of course it is never safe, and neither with the CEV be.

Very well said.

I noticed someone put "after one HSM". Does that person just want a flight to the Hubble. Personally I think we shouldn't even bother with Hubble. Why risk a crew for a telescope that won't be around soon anyway!

Offline Dogsbd

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #58 on: 10/26/2005 04:00 pm »
Quote
GirlygirlShuttlefan - 26/10/2005  9:16 AM

I noticed someone put "after one HSM". Does that person just want a flight to the Hubble. Personally I think we shouldn't even bother with Hubble. Why risk a crew for a telescope that won't be around soon anyway!


Exactly, in my view the HSM is the least important and therefore most expendable mission being considered.

Offline t walker

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RE: Poll: When should the Shuttle Retire?
« Reply #59 on: 10/26/2005 04:21 pm »
I think that the ISS is very important. We need that stepping stone and outpost. If 18 flights are needed to finish it, then 18 flights it should get.

As for hubble, well its already had STS-109 in 2002. Why does it need another so soon? :o  But if it really needs it so soon, I have no objection.

So I have voted for 19 flights by 2010 as planned.

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