Will a Starship go to Mars in the 2026 launch window?

[crandles57]

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Slight chance of Starship flight to Mars crewed by Optimus in Nov/Dec next year. A lot needs to go right for that.

More likely, first flight without humans in ~3.5 years, next flight ~5.5 years with humans.

Mars city self-sustaining in 20 to 30 years.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953028261044187204

Slight, hmmm

My initial thoughts are:
1) He is attempting to launch outside the optimal launch window, but
2) he wants to use Robots that can be turned off during the longer transit time, less lifesupport weight,
3) his "Slight chance " means 2027

Not sure how you are reading any of that into it.

"in Nov/Dec next year" and "More likely, first flight without humans in ~3.5 years", both seem very specific.

I would take Elon's "slight chance" as meaning everything has to go perfectly and even if it does they still might not manage to send a PR Optimus wave mission.

The mission will obviously be run by starship software and no need for Optimus to be draining power during journey. There won't be any life support developed for late 2026 launch if there is one.

[daedalus1]

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Slight chance of Starship flight to Mars crewed by Optimus in Nov/Dec next year. A lot needs to go right for that.

More likely, first flight without humans in ~3.5 years, next flight ~5.5 years with humans.

Mars city self-sustaining in 20 to 30 years.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953028261044187204

Slight, hmmm

My initial thoughts are:
1) He is attempting to launch outside the optimal launch window, but
2) he wants to use Robots that can be turned off during the longer transit time, less lifesupport weight,
3) his "Slight chance " means 2027 (T-17 months) opps, sorry, did I just embarrass myself?

Lol, 'slight chance' means it aint 'appenin.

[meekGee]

People need to cool their heels.

There's a far cry between "SpaceX sends a ship to Mars" (the topic of this thread) and a "ship crewed by robots landing on Mars".

The latter implies a full blown basically human-capable ship landing on Mars as an immediate precursor to landing people.

In fact before you do THAT, if you have a chance, you'd want to burn a ship just getting part-way through EDL.  It took more than one try on Earth, why would you think you can do it in one shot on Mars?

---

A couple of days ago, I wrote this:

I also think that "feasible" is not the same as "likely"...  But I'll track against these (arbitrary) milestones:

- 2025-10-01: Massey's is back for v3 ships
- 2025-12-01: Pad B is functional.
- 2026-01-01: First v3 ship is launched.
- 2026-02-01: Pad-A is functional again.
- 2026-04-01: Last one-time ship has flown.
- 2026-05-01: We see a ship with legs.
- 2026-06-01: Refueling demonstrated.
- 2026-07-01: Campaign starts.

As people have pointed out  there are all sorts of "improv" campaigns possible if this schedule doesn't look like it's happening, and there are about 2 months of margin in there, before real improv becomes necessary.

--

So "slight chance" means exactly that - possible, but very little room for fuck ups.  For example, 8 steps at 80% is 15%, which is a good numerical approximation for "slight".

(And this was for a ship that at most has legs. No functionality on the ground.)

One thing you know about Musk, he's going to keep pushing as long as "slight" is greater or equal to zero...

I'll take any EDL attempt, even with a legless ship, as a win.  Hell even a refueled ship doing a TMI for a nearby pass.  This was discussed at the beginning of the thread.

[DigitalMan]

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Slight chance of Starship flight to Mars crewed by Optimus in Nov/Dec next year. A lot needs to go right for that.

More likely, first flight without humans in ~3.5 years, next flight ~5.5 years with humans.

Mars city self-sustaining in 20 to 30 years.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953028261044187204

Slight, hmmm

I’ve hit the longshot before, but I was with a girl that trained horses and when we were looking at them before the race, she says ooh, look at the muscles on that one.

I bet $20 and won 20-1. She was upset though.

Question is, can he get an edge that will improve the odds?

[sstli2]

In the span of a couple months, Musk's target has shifted 2+ years. Let's put aside the idealistic rhetoric and come back to reality:

- Test flight to Mars: 2028
- Humans to Mars: Not even worth discussing yet
- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

[crandles57]

People need to cool their heels.

There's a far cry between "SpaceX sends a ship to Mars" (the topic of this thread) and a "ship crewed by robots landing on Mars".

The latter implies a full blown basically human-capable ship landing on Mars as an immediate precursor to landing people.

There is indeed an absolutely huge difference between a largely PR Optimus wave flyby mission and a landing mission.

But which do you think Musk was referring to?

In that email he just says "flight to Mars crewed by Optimus" and this might seem somewhat ambiguous as to meaning?

However, if he had only just decided that a "full blown basically human-capable ship landing on Mars as an immediate precursor to landing people" was no longer possible, he would almost certainly then still be trying to do something like put marslink satellites in orbit around Mars. So I think it is sensible for us to conclude he was talking about an Optimus wave flyby mission is all that remains as a slight chance.

[crandles57]

I also think that "feasible" is not the same as "likely"...  But I'll track against these (arbitrary) milestones:

- 2025-10-01: Massey's is back for v3 ships
- 2025-12-01: Pad B is functional.
- 2026-01-01: First v3 ship is launched.
- 2026-02-01: Pad-A is functional again.
- 2026-04-01: Last one-time ship has flown.
- 2026-05-01: We see a ship with legs.
- 2026-06-01: Refueling demonstrated.
- 2026-07-01: Campaign starts.

What does "Pad-A is functional again." mean? Tower functional for v3 catches? or Pad functional for v3 launches? If the latter then I am not sure I see the need before ~Nov 2026 and Feb 2026 is way too optimistic. If the former, it doesn't seem an important milestone at least for a few months after Feb 2026.

A month or two later for Masseys back up for v3 seems ok as long as Ship 38 static fired and launched by 1 Dec 2025?

Retro fitting legs to an existing ship in November 2026 might be in time? Though I seriously doubt they will get as far as adding legs, just getting some EDL data prior to crash would be amazing and isn't really happening based on my interpretation of Musk's recent tweet.

Building first tanker and recovering tanker to improve the design in time to build more tankers seems more relevant time constraints than you have used. Is reuse after recovery even needed?

[geza]

Elon Musk@elonmusk

Slight chance of Starship flight to Mars crewed by Optimus in Nov/Dec next year. A lot needs to go right for that.

More likely, first flight without humans in ~3.5 years, next flight ~5.5 years with humans.

Mars city self-sustaining in 20 to 30 years.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953028261044187204

I think the first point is realistic. If they will be extremely lucky, it is not physically impossible to send a Starship to Mars in late '26. Just, they will need MUCH more luck than they had during the first half of the current year.

Optimus, as crew, is a show, of course. Probably, they will erect a flag. Otherwise, they will be useful, like a robotic rover, or welder, etc. We don't know how capable AI will become by then. Even if AI will have some real problem solving skills, it will not need to be located within the humanoid.

Humans during the second landing opportunity, again, assumes extreme luck. Or, extreme risk taking. If human landing at the seccond opportunity is the goal, then they have to demonstrate not only the safe landing, but also robust surface operations during the first synod. Solar panel deployment, spacecraft survival, water mining (!), surface mobility, etc. These systems have to be developed without knowing the local condittions, e.g. about water availability. If the first flight will happen in 3.5 years from now, then they will have time for serious development of surface systems. Still, I usually assume that humans can go at the third opportunity, earliest. The first one is mainly about reconnaissance, the second is about the real testing of equipment. Then, humans will not step to Mars before 2031.

Mars city is an entirelly different ballpark. If Starship development will be succesfull, as envisaged, then the transportation problem will have been solved. IF there will have a societal drive for building a city on Mars, THEN it will be technically possibly. I am not sure if that drive will emerge as fast, as Elon imagine.

[Vultur]

 

In the span of a couple months, Musk's target has shifted 2+ years. Let's put aside the idealistic rhetoric and come back to reality:

- Test flight to Mars: 2028
- Humans to Mars: Not even worth discussing yet
- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Eh, even if a human mission is 3-4 synods away it's definitely worth discussing. NASA was planning for humans to the moon way back with Mercury.

And any delay that pushes a Mars mission out of one synod will bump it about 26 months, so two years' delay in a couple months doesn't really mean much.

[catdlr]

In the span of a couple months, Musk's target has shifted 2+ years. Let's put aside the idealistic rhetoric and come back to reality:

- Test flight to Mars: 2028
- Humans to Mars: Not even worth discussing yet
- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Eh, even if a human mission is 3-4 synods away it's definitely worth discussing. NASA was planning for humans to the moon way back with Mercury.

And any delay that pushes a Mars mission out of one synod will bump it about 26 months, so two years' delay in a couple months doesn't really mean much.

Seems the budget may focus on heading to Mars:   

NASA’s proposed budget eyes human exploration of Mars

ARTICLE:

[Roy_H]

- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Actually, I wish Elon would give up on that. He wants humanity to be space-faring, so how about a large rotating space station in LEO. Easy to get to, gets man living in space.

[Coastal Ron]

- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Actually, I wish Elon would give up on that. He wants humanity to be space-faring, so how about a large rotating space station in LEO. Easy to get to, gets man living in space.

But that doesn't make humanity "multi-planetary", which has been the whole goal for creating SpaceX and now Starship.

Also, if making Mars self-sufficient in order to allow humanity to survive in case something happens to Earth will be hard, trying to do that with rotating space stations would be orders of magnitude more difficult.

If we want a backup to Earth in case something happens to it, Mars is the best place to try. However I agree it won't be this century, and maybe not even the next. Self-sufficiency is difficult even here on Earth for any modern civilization...

[sdsds]

Predicting changes that may happen to the mission of the entire Starship effort is difficult. For now, it's making Earth life (or Earth culture) sustainable at multiple different solar system locations, and sending something Starship-related in the direction of Mars sometime in calendar year 2026 is the stepping-stone objective being measured here.

I doubt the original poster was asking about multi-revolution long-cruise missions, but their availability is intriguing. And I'm still of the opinion there will possibly be some obsolete Ship in orbit, and the ability to at least partially refill it, within the available 2026 windows.

[Twark_Main]

- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Actually, I wish Elon would give up on that. He wants humanity to be space-faring, so how about a large rotating space station in LEO. Easy to get to, gets man living in space.

When asked about this, Elon's answer is pretty straightforward: to build space colonies you need to bring matter from somewhere. Why not just go to where the matter already is? 

[sdsds]

The 10/26/26 departure is the one that EasyPorkchop had at v∞ = 3.03km/s.  I'd trust an Ames calculator more than the one I'm using.  The ones before that are more than 360º orbits.

What does your EasyPorkchop-derived tool indicate happens along the upper lobe of the plot as the departure date gets later? I'm showing a feasible departure vInf as late as the end of December 2026, with 1 < years_in_itransit < 2.

Arrival window: 27-02-17 - 28-06-10
Departure window: 26-10-20 - 27-01-17
Departure vinf Limit: 3500.0
Grid Size: 600 x 600
Latest available departure:
Departs: 26-12-29
Arrives: 28-02-20
Transit duration: 417.2 days

[Twark_Main]

The 10/26/26 departure is the one that EasyPorkchop had at v∞ = 3.03km/s.  I'd trust an Ames calculator more than the one I'm using.  The ones before that are more than 360º orbits.

What does your EasyPorkchop-derived tool indicate happens along the upper lobe of the plot as the departure date gets later? I'm showing a feasible departure vInf as late as the end of December 2026, with 1 < years_in_itransit < 2.

Arrival window: 27-02-17 - 28-06-10
Departure window: 26-10-20 - 27-01-17
Departure vinf Limit: 3500.0
Grid Size: 600 x 600
Latest available departure:
Departs: 26-12-29
Arrives: 28-02-20
Transit duration: 417.2 days

Surely the ideal data visualization here would be to "flatten" the plot down to a simple line graph, with departure date on the horizontal axis and delta-v from the parking orbit (or similar) on the vertical axis.  Everything you need, nothing you don't!

[meekGee]

- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Actually, I wish Elon would give up on that. He wants humanity to be space-faring, so how about a large rotating space station in LEO. Easy to get to, gets man living in space.

There are two reasons why that's a non-starter.

- There are no resources in free orbit
- LEO (like the moon) is too close.

Mars is the easiest destination in the Solar System that can still become its own ecosystem, which is the actual goal here.

The environment is benign enough to make it feasible, it is separated enough by the laws of orbital dynamics (and the speed of light) - it's almost perfect.

I mean obviously it'd be nicer if it had more air, but on a scale of 1-to-10 where another Earth is 10 and say the Kuiper beltoids are 1, it's a solid 9.

(Followed by Ceres as a 7? Rocky asteroids at 6? Maybe Jovian moons at 5?  Venus higher atmosphere in there too at 4?)

If you want a space station, maybe a rotating free-flyer next to an asteroid would make sense.

[meekGee]

In the span of a couple months, Musk's target has shifted 2+ years. Let's put aside the idealistic rhetoric and come back to reality:

- Test flight to Mars: 2028
- Humans to Mars: Not even worth discussing yet
- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Did you just discover the concept of a synod?  Or of schedule delays?

I'm going to let you in on a secret.

Odds of going directly from first landing attempt to human landings are also "slim".

They'll need to demonstrate landing reliably, as in multiple times and without close-calls, before sending people.

The odds of doing that without precursor "landing school" flights are also "slim" - sligher chance of that than of oullingnoff a Mars departure this coming year.

But higher than the chance of anyone on this planet doing anything consequential about human interplanetary anything in the next decade.

So how's about hey keep pushing for 2026, and whatever can get done, gets done?

And given the scope of Starship, once it flies, yeah. 20-30 years actually sounds reasonable. It's not like we have to reinvent technology. And expansion into vacuum is very rapid..  We're so used to friction-dominated zero-sum economies on Earth, but your model for growth of Mars is  different.

[sdsds]

Surely the ideal data visualization here would be to "flatten" the plot down to a simple line graph, with departure date on the horizontal axis and delta-v from the parking orbit (or similar) on the vertical axis.  Everything you need, nothing you don't!

Feel free to implement that if it floats your boat. I can recommend the pykep package for easy Python-based hacking, and would be glad to provide my code (with no warranties of fitness for the purpose) as a starting place.

[thespacecow]

In the span of a couple months, Musk's target has shifted 2+ years. Let's put aside the idealistic rhetoric and come back to reality:

- Test flight to Mars: 2028
- Humans to Mars: Not even worth discussing yet
- Self-sustaining city on Mars: Not happening this century

Eh, even if a human mission is 3-4 synods away it's definitely worth discussing. NASA was planning for humans to the moon way back with Mercury.

Yep, exactly.

When Bush announced Constellation in 2005, the goal is to land on the Moon in 2020, so planning 15 years ahead just for the Moon.

Most human spaceflight hardware takes at least 6~8 years to develop.

So not discussing human mission 6~8 years away is extremely dumb.

As for self-sustaining city on Mars, I think there's a good chance for this to happen in this century given the assistance of AI and robotics.