The BO claim has nothing to do with this topic.
Quote from: steveleach on 03/10/2024 08:29 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 03/10/2024 07:12 pmRecall that SpaceX is prone to whimsy. The first FH launch sent a Tesla roadster (almost) to Mars orbit. If tanker and depot are ready and HLS is not, they might throw a ship toward Mars just to test depot and tanker. No, I do not think they can do it, but the window is not closed.Do they even need tanking with the performance they are getting from the ship and booster now? For a flypast they won't need TPS or flaps, which means the ship can be even lighter, and they don't need a payload. And they they don't need to recover the booster either, even if they are able to by that point.What you are describing is a Mars flyby mission with a depot Starship. Maybe a stripped down variant.It is possible, but more likely will be in the next launch window for Mars.The irony of sending a "Shelby" depot Starship toward Mars.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 03/10/2024 07:12 pmRecall that SpaceX is prone to whimsy. The first FH launch sent a Tesla roadster (almost) to Mars orbit. If tanker and depot are ready and HLS is not, they might throw a ship toward Mars just to test depot and tanker. No, I do not think they can do it, but the window is not closed.Do they even need tanking with the performance they are getting from the ship and booster now? For a flypast they won't need TPS or flaps, which means the ship can be even lighter, and they don't need a payload. And they they don't need to recover the booster either, even if they are able to by that point.
Recall that SpaceX is prone to whimsy. The first FH launch sent a Tesla roadster (almost) to Mars orbit. If tanker and depot are ready and HLS is not, they might throw a ship toward Mars just to test depot and tanker. No, I do not think they can do it, but the window is not closed.
Well, it probably has similarities with a depot ship, but it presumably wouldn't be able to function as a depot.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 03/10/2024 09:04 pmQuote from: steveleach on 03/10/2024 08:29 pm<snip>Do they even need tanking with the performance they are getting from the ship and booster now? For a flypast they won't need TPS or flaps, which means the ship can be even lighter, and they don't need a payload. And they they don't need to recover the booster either, even if they are able to by that point.What you are describing is a Mars flyby mission with a depot Starship. Maybe a stripped down variant.<snip>Well, it probably has similarities with a depot ship, but it presumably wouldn't be able to function as a depot.I'm assuming that they'll have refuelling nailed by the 2026 window, so there would be no point in this kind of mission then because they will be able to do something better.The whole idea is to lob a ship towards Mars in 2024, primarily for publicity, but also to maybe get some data on the interplanetary coast phase.
Quote from: steveleach on 03/10/2024 08:29 pm<snip>Do they even need tanking with the performance they are getting from the ship and booster now? For a flypast they won't need TPS or flaps, which means the ship can be even lighter, and they don't need a payload. And they they don't need to recover the booster either, even if they are able to by that point.What you are describing is a Mars flyby mission with a depot Starship. Maybe a stripped down variant.<snip>
<snip>Do they even need tanking with the performance they are getting from the ship and booster now? For a flypast they won't need TPS or flaps, which means the ship can be even lighter, and they don't need a payload. And they they don't need to recover the booster either, even if they are able to by that point.
SpaceX should still lob an early production depot Starship towards Mars for an interplanetary transit shakedown prior to the first wave of Mars bound Starships. Maybe the depot Starship can go into a high Mars orbit to act as communication relay and data cache.Expect early production depot Starships to be disposed off soon after completing propellant transfer trials. Could see them be refitted in orbit as interplanetary probe and/or support spacecraft.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 03/11/2024 02:28 amSpaceX should still lob an early production depot Starship towards Mars for an interplanetary transit shakedown prior to the first wave of Mars bound Starships. Maybe the depot Starship can go into a high Mars orbit to act as communication relay and data cache.Expect early production depot Starships to be disposed off soon after completing propellant transfer trials. Could see them be refitted in orbit as interplanetary probe and/or support spacecraft.If they want to orbit Mars they'll need TPS, which saves a lot of fuel. So not a depot. But there'll be plenty of non-depot ships past their useful life as well.
Quote from: InterestedEngineer on 03/11/2024 02:36 amQuote from: Zed_Noir on 03/11/2024 02:28 amSpaceX should still lob an early production depot Starship towards Mars for an interplanetary transit shakedown prior to the first wave of Mars bound Starships. Maybe the depot Starship can go into a high Mars orbit to act as communication relay and data cache.Expect early production depot Starships to be disposed off soon after completing propellant transfer trials. Could see them be refitted in orbit as interplanetary probe and/or support spacecraft.If they want to orbit Mars they'll need TPS, which saves a lot of fuel. So not a depot. But there'll be plenty of non-depot ships past their useful life as well.There is a lot propellants in a depot Starship that could be expended in lieu of TPS to orbit Mars.
There is a lot propellants in a depot Starship that could be expended in lieu of TPS to orbit Mars.
SpaceX created the first fully reusable rocket stage and, much more importantly, made the reuse economically viable.Making life multiplanetary is fundamentally a cost per ton to Mars problem. It currently costs about a billion dollars per ton of useful payload to the surface of Mars. That needs to be improved to $100k/ton to build a self-sustaining city there, so the technology needs to be 10,000 times better. Extremely difficult, but not impossible.
The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years. Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet.
Wow. I had kind of thought this year they'd probably wait until the early 2029 window... when I started this thread I expected the pace of launches after the first to be much higher than it has been.I wonder if they can get the planetary protection approval for a landing that soon, and if they would send Starship for a Mars flyby if they can't.l
Quote from: Vultur on 09/08/2024 04:40 amWow. I had kind of thought this year they'd probably wait until the early 2029 window... when I started this thread I expected the pace of launches after the first to be much higher than it has been.I wonder if they can get the planetary protection approval for a landing that soon, and if they would send Starship for a Mars flyby if they can't.lPerhaps it's time to end this thread and start a new one with the 2026 Window??
Whoah, this is not one of those things happening in a couple decades. This is happening in 4 years.
Attempting to land giant spaceships on Mars will happen in that timeframe, but humans are only going after the landings are proven to be reliable.4 years is best case for humans, might be 6, hopefully not 8.
