Which launch vehicle in development will fly first?

[sstli2]

I thought this would be an interesting poll, and discussion point as to why and when.

Note:

- I have not included Neutron, because it is the obvious choice.
- I have not included Antares 330, because it is only half a new vehicle.
- For avoidance of doubt, "fly" means orbital flight.

[sstli2]

I'll try to spur the discussion a bit. So far, the poll results are fairly close, as I expected.

I voted for Eclipse. It seems that it will get its first stage flying very soon via the Antares 330 and the second stage will come pretty soon after. They also have material flight experience, albeit a troubled one. But it does allow them to build in lessons learned from Alpha.

Terran R seems to be a bit farther behind, judging from their frequent status updates, and I think the technical challenges of Nova, and their more limited funding / lack of an external sponsor means that they'll take more time to get to the pad.

All 3 companies aren't flying unless they think they will succeed, they don't have the $ to fly a more immature test flight.