Number of flights of New Glenn in 2026?

[Tywin]

Ok, how many flights of the New Glenn will be made in 2026?

[AmigaClone]

Ok, how many flights of the New Glenn will be made in 2026?

More times than the Falcon 9 launched in 2011.

[sstli2]

I recall we had a poll like this last year, and the problem is that it's too early. What happens in 2026 depends on the outcome of the flight in less than a month. So it is premature to have this poll.

If the booster lands, I'll go with 7 flights¹.

If the booster does not land, I'll go with 3 flights².

¹ Assumes the landed booster is reusable, which I think a landed booster will be, but many disagree.
² Assumes they will manage to land it on NG-3 in June, and re-fly the booster twice.

[SpaceLizard]

Ok, how many flights of the New Glenn will be made in 2026?

More times than the Falcon 9 launched in 2011.

Hah! That'll be pretty tough, a very impressive accomplishment by all accounts! \sarcasm \humor

[sdsds]

I recall we had a poll like this last year, and the problem is that it's too early. What happens in 2026 depends on the outcome of the flight in less than a month. So it is premature to have this poll.

If the booster lands, I'll go with 7 flights¹.

If the booster does not land, I'll go with 3 flights².

¹ Assumes the landed booster is reusable, which I think a landed booster will be, but many disagree.
² Assumes they will manage to land it on NG-3 in June, and re-fly the booster twice.

Thanks for expressing this so well! It isn't just that the distribution is wide, it's that it has more than one mode. The result of a distribution like that can be that the mean (expected value) isn't near one of the modal (high likelihood) values. TL;DR - I went with 5. ;-)

[Yggdrasill]

I don't expect a booster reuse in 2026, even if they successfully land all the boosters going forward. I just don't see it as likely that Blue won't use a lot of time on the first booster refurbishments.

So on that basis, I'm guessing 4 launches in 2026.

[sstli2]

I don't expect a booster reuse in 2026, even if they successfully land all the boosters going forward. I just don't see it as likely that Blue won't use a lot of time on the first booster refurbishments.

So on that basis, I'm guessing 4 launches in 2026.

If you actually believe that, then 4 launches is unreasonable. You're basically saying that you expect them to build 4 boosters in a single year. Very unlikely that's happening. A good result for them would be building 2 boosters in 2026.

I reiterate that, as now has been reported publicly in Ars, the current plan is to refly the landed booster in 3 months (January) after it is landed. To go from that, to none of 4 boosters can be re-used, while simultaneously saying that they will build 4 boosters from scratch, doesn't make much sense.

[Yggdrasill]

I haven't looked that much into their manufacturing capability, so you may be right that two is a more reasonable estimate.

I understand they intend to reuse boosters shortly after recovery, but I just don't believe them on that point.

[sstli2]

As one of the individuals in this forum who is more generous in my viewpoints when it comes to Blue Origin - the one area where I am not optimistic is GS1 manufacturing. The latest news on the grapevine is that they have only just started the third booster. I don't expect booster 3 to come online until mid-2026. Booster 4? Late 2026 at best.

Maybe they will change that. Internal company targets that have been shared publicly are 4 GS1s in 2026. They are also bringing online a new integration facility by the end of this year, in addition to the existing FAB (final assembly building) where GS1 is currently put together. But I wouldn't count on it. It's a complex, expensive stage, and until a block 2, I can't see that changing.

[Vultur]

There's a wide spread of possibilities here. I voted 4, that seems likely if the NG-2 booster is recovered but needs work before it can be reused.

[AmigaClone]

Seriously, the number of New Glenn flights in 2026 will depend on four five main factors.

1) Number of vehicles or vehicle components available before the end of the year (these could be new or refurbished).

2) Vehicle Reliability on launch - Any mishap could push the date of the next launch back by several months. Worse-case scenario could mean no launches until at least 2027 if the incident damages or destroys ground support equipment.

3) The time it takes for BO to prepare SLC-36 for the next launch.

4) Success on recovery attempts - The higher number of launches likely depends on at least some boosters being flown for a second or more time. Loss of a booster would likely affect that. If damage is caused to the landing platform, that might delay future recovery attempts. In extreme cases, loss of the booster on a landing attempt it might cause the FAA to request an investigation.

5)  Refurbishment speed - faster refurbishment means a higher chance of more launches.

[sstli2]

Now we can have this discussion. I said earlier that if they landed the booster they could do 7 flights in 2026. I stand by that prediction. The booster didn't look toasty at all. On the contrary, it looked like-new. We'll see how it pans out, but I don't have any real cause for concern that they would not be able to refurbish this booster in 2-3 months.

[jongoff]

Now we can have this discussion. I said earlier that if they landed the booster they could do 7 flights in 2026. I stand by that prediction. The booster didn't look toasty at all. On the contrary, it looked like-new. We'll see how it pans out, but I don't have any real cause for concern that they would not be able to refurbish this booster in 2-3 months.

I get the feeling I'm going to regret my 4 flights estimate as well (in a good way, this is a batch of crow that I won't mind eating). I also wonder how people are updating their priors on how successful RL will be in landing and reusing Neutron?

~Jon

[Tywin]

Now we can have this discussion. I said earlier that if they landed the booster they could do 7 flights in 2026. I stand by that prediction. The booster didn't look toasty at all. On the contrary, it looked like-new. We'll see how it pans out, but I don't have any real cause for concern that they would not be able to refurbish this booster in 2-3 months.

My vote was optimistic and, I said was 10 flights!

[Tywin]

Now we can have this discussion. I said earlier that if they landed the booster they could do 7 flights in 2026. I stand by that prediction. The booster didn't look toasty at all. On the contrary, it looked like-new. We'll see how it pans out, but I don't have any real cause for concern that they would not be able to refurbish this booster in 2-3 months.

I get the feeling I'm going to regret my 4 flights estimate as well (in a good way, this is a batch of crow that I won't mind eating). I also wonder how people are updating their priors on how successful RL will be in landing and reusing Neutron?

~Jon

Well I think is going to be very difficult to do a recovery in only two flights, Blue have do a amazing job here...

[Metalskin]

I'm pretty optimistic after today's results (well today in Aussie time). I thought that they would experience problems with the landing, but being able to stick it really boosts my confidence.

The big question (in my mind) is what do they discover when inspecting the flown booster and can they refurb. or do they need to make changes before that's possible. I suspect a combo of both, identified improvements but can refurb. Then it comes down to time to refurb and how many times can they refly on the current iteration.

But overall, so happy that they landed it. It's awesome to now have two companies that have demonstrated this. It's a great time to be a spectator of space flight :-)

[Eric Hedman]

I picked 7.  Blue has already said that they are going to try to reuse the booster on flight 3.  If they can and they have already have another booster nearly ready, it should allow this pace.

[redneck]

I picked 4 after the successful flight. (15 Nov) Blue just seems so cautious to me. I can see how an aggressive schedule could get well into double digits. New Shepard cadence influences my opinion.

Hopefully the crow i eat will dwarf an obese ostrich. 

[sstli2]

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/11/after-last-weeks-stunning-landing-heres-what-comes-next-for-blue-origin/

Limp said success on New Glenn’s second flight would set the company up for a significant increase in cadence. The company is building enough hardware for “well above” a dozen flights in 2026, with the upper-end limit of 24 launches. The pacing item is second stages. Right now Blue Origin can build one per month, but the production rate is increasing.

I am skeptical of this framing. GS2-5 is almost complete, and GS2-6 will be complete pretty soon. For the first half of 2026, certainly the pacing item is GS1, not GS2.

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

I predicted a very optimistic 8 flights, having voted much later than many here and having seen results of the second flight.  Now that it's landed successfully I expect GS1 cadence will rise because they no longer have need to hold off for potential major redesigns. 

Booster refurb time is the next big unknown, but the booster looked pretty clean on landing, no small fires and dripping metal for instance.  I expect the second and subsequent refurbishments to take far less time than the first iteration where everyone is learning.

I think Dave Limp's prediction is wildly optimistic, but 8 flights could happen with a major cadence increase late spring or so.

[TrevorMonty]

I'll go with 3-4.

[leeloodallasmultipass]

I did a 10. It is optimistic but there is pressure on Blue not just from the owner but also from the customer. They might work hard to get it done.

[jongoff]

If the poll reopened, I'd probably adjust up to 6. While I'd love to see 10-12, that's a challenging ramp-up rate. But my current guess of 4 is probably on the low side.

~Jon

[saturnsky]

Ill say 8,,,if Blue Origin gets Moon lander contract from NASA,, and that depends on sucess of Moon lander demo flight early next year...

[Kaputnik]

Voted 4. It's still a new vehicle, from a very cautious company. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[envy887]

Voted 4 as well. Probably 2 used and 2 new boosters.