Starship Flight 12 Timing Poll

[sdsds]

[...] It's a truism that adding resources to a late project makes it later.

In its classical formulation that truism is Brooke's Law, from The Mythical Man-Month. It applied to adding people, not dollars. Some acceleration in schedule, e.g. for a construction project, can be accomplished by paying vendors to deliver materials sooner.

[Robotbeat]

You can also pay contractors overtime to do round the clock shifts to, eg, renovate a pad or GSE.

I think this kind of response by Elon shows he’s kind of ticked off and may reorient resources to beat the deadline. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1980335879945351303

[shm6666]

So guessing time!. I always try to learn from my previous mistakes. After flight 6 I did think that flight 7 was a forgone conclusion. They would nail it. V2 would fly true, and orbit and catch on flight 8… Did not happen that way.

So I did think of sandbagging and select April 2026, but opted for first week in March 2026. Knowing full well that they will aim “Green light to Malibu” in jan or feb.

I have several concerns / questions regarding V3.

The new engines without heat shield, will that work?  Elon has been hellbent on that. We will see if he is correct on this one.

V2 was supposed to lift 100Mt, it did not, now V3 should have this capability. I hope that it can be true to that commitment.

Both ship and booster are sort of new designs from their lessons learned. It will fun to watch, and I hope flight 12 is a success so we can get on with the program and see ship catches!

[sdsds]

It's somewhat abusing this poll thread — which is about when the flight will occur —  to ask, "Where will it come down?" Nonetheless I do so because that side-topic probably isn't worthy of its own poll.

The most likely case would be a repeat of the flight 11 profile, with re-entry over the Indian Ocean after completing less than a full orbit. I tried to explore the possibility that flight 12 might still re-enter over the Indian Ocean but after completing one or more full orbits. Attached is my attempt at visualizing that (based on a vibe-coded mess of Python). My conclusion is that yes, after one or two full orbits the vehicle will still pass over essentially empty parts of the Indian Ocean. Comments or questions welcome.

[Vultur]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

[sdsds]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

Maybe, but it isn't clear that an expedited Flight 12 would prove much. What SpaceX needs to prove is orbital refilling, which will take several flights. Spending the time now to iron out any wrinkles in the v3 production process, rather than rushing past them with quick fixes, might shorten the time to reach that milestone even if it delays Flight 12.

As for the Flight 12 mission profile I'm making my predictions:
60% - same profile as Flight 11, with re-entry over the Indian Ocean
30% - once-around, still with re-entry over the Indian Ocean
7% - ~16 revolutions with re-entry over the Gulf offshore of Boca Chica
3% - ~16 revolutions with attempted tower catch

[Vultur]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

Maybe, but it isn't clear that an expedited Flight 12 would prove much. What SpaceX needs to prove is orbital refilling, which will take several flights. Spending the time now to iron out any wrinkles in the v3 production process, rather than rushing past them with quick fixes, might shorten the time to reach that milestone even if it delays Flight 12.

That's a good point, but I was thinking that (on the political side) a long period of "nothing obvious happening" may not be good for SpaceX's argument to keep Artemis HLS and (on the real schedule side) propellant transfer is gated behind achieving full orbit which is gated behind successful Flight 12.

If they were willing to go full orbital with Flight 12 (and FAA was willing to license that) that might change things. But that doesn't seem to be the plan.

[DanClemmensen]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

Maybe, but it isn't clear that an expedited Flight 12 would prove much. What SpaceX needs to prove is orbital refilling, which will take several flights. Spending the time now to iron out any wrinkles in the v3 production process, rather than rushing past them with quick fixes, might shorten the time to reach that milestone even if it delays Flight 12.

That's a good point, but I was thinking that (on the political side) a long period of "nothing obvious happening" may not be good for SpaceX's argument to keep Artemis HLS and (on the real schedule side) propellant transfer is gated behind achieving full orbit which is gated behind successful Flight 12.

If they were willing to go full orbital with Flight 12 (and FAA was willing to license that) that might change things. But that doesn't seem to be the plan.

A  good PR campaign can fill such a gap with cool videos. SLS and Orion have been doing this for years, while SpaceX is generally very low key. However, they did make the big announcements in response to Duffy, so maybe they will continue, at least a little bit. The work at LC39A would make a basis for some good stuff until flight 12.

[StraumliBlight]

I'd like to revise my pick to Februrary.

https://twitter.com/starshipgazer/status/1991845404212666603

[jongoff]

I'd like to revise my pick to Februrary.

https://twitter.com/starshipgazer/status/1991845404212666603

Ouch. Now my second half of Feb estimate doesn't seem so bad... Hopefully they can bounce back quickly.

~Jon

[sdsds]

Double ouch. Start Date: 04/05/2026

2201-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1799-EX-ST-2025. STA is necessary to authorize an additional power level for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a tracking beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

2203-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1800-EX-ST-2025 for high power uplink static beam at the South Padre Island and Starbase Office antenna locations. STA is necessary to authorize a static beam for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a static beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

[DanClemmensen]

Double ouch. Start Date: 04/05/2026

2201-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1799-EX-ST-2025. STA is necessary to authorize an additional power level for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a tracking beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

2203-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1800-EX-ST-2025 for high power uplink static beam at the South Padre Island and Starbase Office antenna locations. STA is necessary to authorize a static beam for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a static beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

These are basically extensions. There are already active STAs now that end on 04/05/2026, so this new STA is only needed if the schedule slips that far.