Starship Flight 12 Timing Poll

[jongoff]

Ok, Starship Flight 11 is in the books, and frankly went about as smooth as I think SpaceX could've asked for. This was the last flight of the V2 Booster and Starship, with Flight 12 being the debut flight of V3. How soon do you think they'll be able to light the candle on V3 and let it slip the surly bonds of Earth? The turn around for Flight 10 after the Massey's explosion was faster than many expected, will they pull other rabbits out of their hat to get into v3 flight testing sooner than the conventional wisdome? Is Raptor V3 ready for primetime? How soon will all of the ground and launch infrastructure be ready?

As per usual, I'm doing this poll explicitly before we have great answers to all of those questions, to force people to make the best educated guess they can. I'm leaving the poll open for 11 days (so through Friday 10/24 evening time in the US), and I have the "allow users to change vote" option toggled, to allow people to rethink things as more info comes out.

As per usual, please share your logic on why you think a specific date range is most likely.

I decided to go with half month intervals through the end of April 2026, month intervals from there through the end of Q2, and then quarterly afterwards.

Happy guessing!

~Jon

[jongoff]

I'm going to stick my neck out and start with a late February 2026 guess. There's a chance SpaceX can find an infrastructure trick to allow them to test things and get ready even before the Massey's cleanup work, and other ground infrastructure work is fully ready to go, but I think there's a reasonably good chance we'll see a decent pause between this final V2 flight and the first V3 flight.

If I change my mind before the end of the voting, I'll leave the above paragraph untouched, and add a comment below explaining my new guess, and updated rationale.

~Jon

[sdsds]

February 19, 2026. That's based on a repeat of the 129 day interval between IFT-4 on June 6, 2024 and IFT-5 on October 13, 2024.

[DanClemmensen]

Late January. Best possible scenario if everything goes perfectly on all of these. I cannot predict which of these will cause the worst delay:
   *Masseys rebuild
   *Pad 2
   *Raptor 3
   *Ship V3
   *Booster V3.

[Metalskin]

I'm leaning towards March, but I think Feb is doable with how things are currently unfolding. Quite a few dependencies and if one slips...

[Vultur]

I was ready to vote for February  ... because I expect them to aim for January, but things will slip.

Predicting which half of February feels like a pure guess.

I'm going to guess first half of February, assuming they will be pushing very hard on the schedule since so many things (propellant transfer testing/development needed for Artemis and Mars, Starlink v3) depend on getting v3 working quickly.

That's still 4 months from today.

My big worry for a longer delay is that they don't seem to be pushing for a launch before end of year.

[c4fusion]

Just went with my gut feeling, I was feeling end of February or beginning of March.  I ended up with first half of March.

[CraigLieb]

I’m voting for fireworks on Valentine’s Day. Feb 14.

[Robotbeat]

I might vote early just so I don’t forget, but I kind of expect to learn significantly more in the next 10 days about their pace.

I’m about 70% confident they’ll launch by the end of March. But I’m also not entirely able to rule out a launch by the end of the year, maybe 5-10% chance.

[catdlr]

Does this throw a wrench into some of your predictions:

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Apparrently spring for ship catch which will be not long after flight 12

Elon Musk@elonmusk
·
Springtime

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978129830777323648

[Robotbeat]

Not at all. I mean, if he had said January, it might’ve changed it a bit.

[AmigaClone]

Does this throw a wrench into some of your predictions:

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Apparrently spring for ship catch which will be not long after flight 12

Elon Musk@elonmusk
·
Springtime

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978129830777323648

Spring 2026 starts on 1 March 2026 if using the meteorological definition or 20 March 2026 if using the astrological definition. In both cases, spring ends 92 days later. Note that this estimate is for Flight 13.

For now I will be keeping my late February estimate - pending new data.

[DanClemmensen]

Does this throw a wrench into some of your predictions:

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Apparrently spring for ship catch which will be not long after flight 12

Elon Musk@elonmusk
·
Springtime

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978129830777323648

Spring 2026 starts on 1 March 2026 if using the meteorological definition or 20 March 2026 if using the astrological definition. In both cases, spring ends 92 days later. Note that this estimate is for Flight 13.

For now I will be keeping my late February estimate - pending new data.

Sorry, no. It's for a flight after 12. Earliest is flight 13, but IMO that is not likely for a catch attempt. 12 is almost certainly suborbital, 13 is first orbital and probably not a catch attempt, since a catch attempt is probably after 16 orbits but I suspect the first orbital flight will be only one or two orbits. So, I interpret "Springtime" to mean that Elon expects to see three or V3 flights before 20 June. Not unreasonable.

[catdlr]

Does this throw a wrench into some of your predictions:

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Apparrently spring for ship catch which will be not long after flight 12

Elon Musk@elonmusk
·
Springtime

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978129830777323648

Spring 2026 starts on 1 March 2026 if using the meteorological definition or 20 March 2026 if using the astrological definition. In both cases, spring ends 92 days later. Note that this estimate is for Flight 13.

For now I will be keeping my late February estimate - pending new data.

Sorry, no. It's for a flight after 12. Earliest is flight 13, but IMO that is not likely for a catch attempt. 12 is almost certainly suborbital, 13 is first orbital and probably not a catch attempt, since a catch attempt is probably after 16 orbits but I suspect the first orbital flight will be only one or two orbits. So, I interpret "Springtime" to mean that Elon expects to see three or V3 flights before 20 June. Not unreasonable.

Dan,

I want a V3 flight as soon as everyone else. I'm tired of delays caused by RUDs.

Pad-2 (for V3 Booster and Ship) started construction one year and two months ago and is nearly finished. Massey would have begun the V3 modification as soon as S37 hadn't exploded; therefore, in my opinion, Massey is the main bottleneck to an earlier flight from the new pad.

On another note, wasn't the first V1 Booster/Ship pair just a test to fully evaluate Pad-1/OLM-1 and then destroyed? Wouldn't the first set of V3 (B18/S39) be the same?

Lastly, according to reports on the Booster and Ship sections coming out of the factory and delivered to the MBs, it takes 6-8 months to transition from the first section rollout to readiness for launch. B18 is almost stacked in MB1, but it is not outfitted yet. Ship 39 is currently being stacked, with its nose cone and PEZ dispenser being delivered from the factory last week. So, I believe the Ship might be the bottleneck.

The only hope for a faster turnaround for S39 is if the other sections for the ship coming out of the factory are properly dressed with tiles instead of the last two that came out half-naked.

If Massey and Pad-2 were the only bottlenecks, I would estimate a launch in early 2026. However, considering the time required to outfit both boosters and complete the stacking and outfitting of the ship, which typically takes 6-8 months, springtime seems more likely.

Now, if both the Booster and Ship are intended solely to test the integration of "Everything" (LV, V3 design and GSE), and get destroyed like was done for the first pair for Pad-1, then perhaps the first flight could seem more like mid-year.

And I didn't discuss the delivery of Raptors; as reported in the Raptors thread, they are fewer than halfway there with thoroughly tested engines.  But time can be saved by testing the pad and Massey with Booster/ship without engines for cryo testing and Wet/Dress rehearsals for both the LV and the new GSE infrastructure.

Tony.

[jongoff]

Does this throw a wrench into some of your predictions:

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Apparrently spring for ship catch which will be not long after flight 12

Elon Musk@elonmusk
·
Springtime

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978129830777323648

If he's saying springtime for the first attempted Starship catch, which would be Flight 13 or 14, that suggests he at least thinks the Flight 12 is going to happen a little earlier than that, maybe in the Jan/Feb timeframe. Given that this Elon, that makes me think my late Feb estimate is probably a bit on the optimistic side, but not enough so for me to change my vote. Yet.

~Jon

[Craigles]

The last half of January 2025. I would be more optimistic if I knew when Massey's will be fully repaired.

[Robotbeat]

I’m voting first half of March for now but reserve the right to change it for a few days. I don’t particularly like all the clustering of votes in February… but hey.

SpaceX could definitely do it sooner. I’m doing the 50/50 date.

[Robotbeat]

I’m changing it to late February due to this. https://x.com/secduffynasa/status/1980257227760955637?s=46

[DanClemmensen]

I’m changing it to late February due to this. https://x.com/secduffynasa/status/1980257227760955637?s=46

I don't see how any amount of external pressure can make a change at this late date. SpaceX already has all the internal pressure it can take. What could they do? It's a truism that adding resources to a late project makes it later.

[Robotbeat]

I’m changing it to late February due to this. https://x.com/secduffynasa/status/1980257227760955637?s=46

I don't see how any amount of external pressure can make a change at this late date. SpaceX already has all the internal pressure it can take. What could they do? It's a truism that adding resources to a late project makes it later.

they did round the clock shifts to rebuild pad one after flight 1. They are not doing that now (but could flip that switch). Probably because there’s other things that they need to do that take time so acceleration by a few weeks doesn’t matter as much. External pressure, however, will provide more impetus to show progress on starship. It also increases the focus of the CEO on SpaceX

[sdsds]

[...] It's a truism that adding resources to a late project makes it later.

In its classical formulation that truism is Brooke's Law, from The Mythical Man-Month. It applied to adding people, not dollars. Some acceleration in schedule, e.g. for a construction project, can be accomplished by paying vendors to deliver materials sooner.

[Robotbeat]

You can also pay contractors overtime to do round the clock shifts to, eg, renovate a pad or GSE.

I think this kind of response by Elon shows he’s kind of ticked off and may reorient resources to beat the deadline. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1980335879945351303

[shm6666]

So guessing time!. I always try to learn from my previous mistakes. After flight 6 I did think that flight 7 was a forgone conclusion. They would nail it. V2 would fly true, and orbit and catch on flight 8… Did not happen that way.

So I did think of sandbagging and select April 2026, but opted for first week in March 2026. Knowing full well that they will aim “Green light to Malibu” in jan or feb.

I have several concerns / questions regarding V3.

The new engines without heat shield, will that work?  Elon has been hellbent on that. We will see if he is correct on this one.

V2 was supposed to lift 100Mt, it did not, now V3 should have this capability. I hope that it can be true to that commitment.

Both ship and booster are sort of new designs from their lessons learned. It will fun to watch, and I hope flight 12 is a success so we can get on with the program and see ship catches!

[sdsds]

It's somewhat abusing this poll thread — which is about when the flight will occur —  to ask, "Where will it come down?" Nonetheless I do so because that side-topic probably isn't worthy of its own poll.

The most likely case would be a repeat of the flight 11 profile, with re-entry over the Indian Ocean after completing less than a full orbit. I tried to explore the possibility that flight 12 might still re-enter over the Indian Ocean but after completing one or more full orbits. Attached is my attempt at visualizing that (based on a vibe-coded mess of Python). My conclusion is that yes, after one or two full orbits the vehicle will still pass over essentially empty parts of the Indian Ocean. Comments or questions welcome.

[Vultur]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

[sdsds]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

Maybe, but it isn't clear that an expedited Flight 12 would prove much. What SpaceX needs to prove is orbital refilling, which will take several flights. Spending the time now to iron out any wrinkles in the v3 production process, rather than rushing past them with quick fixes, might shorten the time to reach that milestone even if it delays Flight 12.

As for the Flight 12 mission profile I'm making my predictions:
60% - same profile as Flight 11, with re-entry over the Indian Ocean
30% - once-around, still with re-entry over the Indian Ocean
7% - ~16 revolutions with re-entry over the Gulf offshore of Boca Chica
3% - ~16 revolutions with attempted tower catch

[Vultur]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

Maybe, but it isn't clear that an expedited Flight 12 would prove much. What SpaceX needs to prove is orbital refilling, which will take several flights. Spending the time now to iron out any wrinkles in the v3 production process, rather than rushing past them with quick fixes, might shorten the time to reach that milestone even if it delays Flight 12.

That's a good point, but I was thinking that (on the political side) a long period of "nothing obvious happening" may not be good for SpaceX's argument to keep Artemis HLS and (on the real schedule side) propellant transfer is gated behind achieving full orbit which is gated behind successful Flight 12.

If they were willing to go full orbital with Flight 12 (and FAA was willing to license that) that might change things. But that doesn't seem to be the plan.

[DanClemmensen]

Given the recent push to 'prove' SpaceX is 'worthy' of keeping its Artemis HLS contract, is there anything that can be done to expedite the launch of Flight 12?

Maybe, but it isn't clear that an expedited Flight 12 would prove much. What SpaceX needs to prove is orbital refilling, which will take several flights. Spending the time now to iron out any wrinkles in the v3 production process, rather than rushing past them with quick fixes, might shorten the time to reach that milestone even if it delays Flight 12.

That's a good point, but I was thinking that (on the political side) a long period of "nothing obvious happening" may not be good for SpaceX's argument to keep Artemis HLS and (on the real schedule side) propellant transfer is gated behind achieving full orbit which is gated behind successful Flight 12.

If they were willing to go full orbital with Flight 12 (and FAA was willing to license that) that might change things. But that doesn't seem to be the plan.

A  good PR campaign can fill such a gap with cool videos. SLS and Orion have been doing this for years, while SpaceX is generally very low key. However, they did make the big announcements in response to Duffy, so maybe they will continue, at least a little bit. The work at LC39A would make a basis for some good stuff until flight 12.

[StraumliBlight]

I'd like to revise my pick to Februrary.

https://twitter.com/starshipgazer/status/1991845404212666603

[jongoff]

I'd like to revise my pick to Februrary.

https://twitter.com/starshipgazer/status/1991845404212666603

Ouch. Now my second half of Feb estimate doesn't seem so bad... Hopefully they can bounce back quickly.

~Jon

[sdsds]

Double ouch. Start Date: 04/05/2026

2201-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1799-EX-ST-2025. STA is necessary to authorize an additional power level for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a tracking beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

2203-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1800-EX-ST-2025 for high power uplink static beam at the South Padre Island and Starbase Office antenna locations. STA is necessary to authorize a static beam for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a static beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

[DanClemmensen]

Double ouch. Start Date: 04/05/2026

2201-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1799-EX-ST-2025. STA is necessary to authorize an additional power level for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a tracking beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

2203-EX-ST-2025 [Dec 29]

This STA uses information from grant 1800-EX-ST-2025 for high power uplink static beam at the South Padre Island and Starbase Office antenna locations. STA is necessary to authorize a static beam for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Launch vehicle communications for Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a static beam.

Start Date: 04/05/2026
End Date: 10/05/2026

These are basically extensions. There are already active STAs now that end on 04/05/2026, so this new STA is only needed if the schedule slips that far.