Poll

What will be the outcome of New Glenn's second flight (NG-2)?

Complete success, landing the booster
20 (31.3%)
Successful orbital insertion, booster fails on landing
29 (45.3%)
Successful orbital insertion, booster fails on re-entry (repeat of NG-1)
10 (15.6%)
Fails to reach orbit or deploy payload, issue with second stage or payload section
3 (4.7%)
Fails to reach orbit, issue with the booster
2 (3.1%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Voting closed: 10/25/2025 02:10 pm


Author Topic: What will be the outcome of New Glenn's second flight (NG-2)?  (Read 23100 times)

Offline sstli2

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What do you think will happen? Choose the closest option.

Offline jimvela

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Too few choices.
Launch snd staging, not quite nominal 2nd stage flight, payload separation.

Botched payload orbital insertion, failure to land booster.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2025 07:40 pm by jimvela »

Offline Comga

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Too few choices.
Launch and staging, not quite nominal 2nd stage flight, payload separation.

Botched payload orbital insertion, failure to land booster.

Too many choice ;)
What’s the boundary between reentry and landing?

My opinion is that the booster will go “off-nominal” somewhere on that unspecified border between a reentry burn, which Blue has not said if they are doing again, and “landing”, like in hypersonic descent or at the supersonic start of the landing burn, far above the barge.  Remember, Blue has never tried either of those, because NS is configured in a different manner.

It’s amusing that my quite optimistic “fails on landing” vote is in the middle of the pack.

PS. Any demerits for leaving another large chunk of space debris in a long-lived orbit?
Full success includes deorbiting the second stage, or they’re just hacking their way into the launch market.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2025 08:24 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline sstli2

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Too few choices.
Launch snd staging, not quite nominal 2nd stage flight, payload separation.

Botched payload orbital insertion, failure to land booster.

You put the worst outcome. In your case, "botched payload orbital insertion" means "Fails to reach orbit or deploy payload". Deploying the payload and failing to land is still a successful mission. Failing to deploy the payload is not.

If you feel the need to elaborate, that's what the posts are for.

What’s the boundary between reentry and landing?

My opinion is that the booster will go “off-nominal” somewhere on that unspecified border between a reentry burn, which Blue has not said if they are doing again, and “landing”, like in hypersonic descent or at the supersonic start of the landing burn, far above the barge.  Remember, Blue has never tried either of those, because NS is configured in a different manner.

I would call that re-entry. My intent with "landing" is really alluding to the the final phase, near the drone ship.

PS. Any demerits for leaving another large chunk of space debris in a long-lived orbit?
Full success includes deorbiting the second stage, or they’re just hacking their way into the launch market.

Generally no one does de-orbit burns outside of LEO, they put the stage in a disposal orbit. SpaceX only did a disposal burn for the first time just this year on a GTO mission, if I recall correctly.

They were compliant with stage disposal regulatory guidelines on the first flight. This flight is going to LEO, so I would expect them to de-orbit the stage, again compliant with regulatory guidelines.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2025 10:21 pm by sstli2 »

Offline redneck

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New Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing.  Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. 

Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank.  Turtles are awesome.

Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development.

I voted orbital insertion and landing failure. Likely to take a few tries to get it right when the vehicle has little track record to inform the operation. 

Offline laszlo

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New Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing.  Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. 

Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank.  Turtles are awesome.

Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development.

"Perfect", in this context, simply means "all documented requirements fulfilled to the documented standards". As for all-up testing, it worked out pretty well for the Saturn Vs, especially Apollo 8.

Offline redneck

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New Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing.  Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. 

Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank.  Turtles are awesome.

Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development.

"Perfect", in this context, simply means "all documented requirements fulfilled to the documented standards". As for all-up testing, it worked out pretty well for the Saturn Vs, especially Apollo 8.

Expendable systems have little choice in the matter. Whether it hits 200 feet or 200 miles, the vehicle is lost. Reusable systems should have and exercise the option of incremental flight expansion. Much like a new class of supersonic aircraft may have a large number of flights before it passes the sound barrier. First flights sometimes don't even retract the landing gear. Same with new equipment types and cars.  You don't go from drawing board to Indy without a lot of intermediate testing.

As for Apollo, good point, but it is an outlier compared to all the vehicle types that failed early and often.

Offline AmigaClone

New Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing.  Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. 

Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank.  Turtles are awesome.

Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development.

"Perfect", in this context, simply means "all documented requirements fulfilled to the documented standards". As for all-up testing, it worked out pretty well for the Saturn Vs, especially Apollo 8.

Expendable systems have little choice in the matter. Whether it hits 200 feet or 200 miles, the vehicle is lost. Reusable systems should have and exercise the option of incremental flight expansion. Much like a new class of supersonic aircraft may have a large number of flights before it passes the sound barrier. First flights sometimes don't even retract the landing gear. Same with new equipment types and cars.  You don't go from drawing board to Indy without a lot of intermediate testing.

As for Apollo, good point, but it is an outlier compared to all the vehicle types that failed early and often.

In some ways NASA was lucky that there were only 3 deaths related to the Apollo program. Had an incident similar to Apollo 13 occurred at the same point of the Apollo 8 mission, then the result would have been three more dead astronauts - and possibly no means to recover their bodies.

Offline lightleviathan

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I'm voting for a successful mission, failure on landing for the booster. Blue obviously has experience designing reusable launch systems, and they certainly can execute, but I would be surprised if they got it on the second try.

Offline sdsds

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To describe it as a complete success I'd want the booster safely back in port. I'm predicting the booster makes a credible attempt at a landing burn and remains sufficiently in control that it gets within visible range of the recovery platform.
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Online Vultur

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To describe it as a complete success I'd want the booster safely back in port. I'm predicting the booster makes a credible attempt at a landing burn and remains sufficiently in control that it gets within visible range of the recovery platform.

Yeah, this is hard to vote on because I think the result might be something in between complete landing failure and complete success (booster returned in usable condition).

Offline sstli2

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If you think it will land in one piece, call it a success. This poll asks nothing about what comes after.

Offline Robotbeat

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I voted complete success.
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Offline sstli2

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It's launch day:

- 92% of you believe the mission will be successful. Only 8% voted for a failure to put the payload into orbit.
- 31% believe they will successfully recover the booster.
- 15% believe they will get no further than NG-1.
- 45%, the most popular choice, believe that it will be able to complete a re-entry burn, but will fail somewhere around landing.

As far as my vote: I voted for a complete success. I believe their ability to hover and the lift of their strakes will allow a large tolerance for landing, and they appear to have made the necessary changes to support engine relight. If their engineers are 75% confident, I'm inclined to believe it. If not, I sure hope it gets close.
« Last Edit: 11/09/2025 02:22 pm by sstli2 »

Offline sstli2

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Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

Offline sdsds

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Congratulations to Blue; congratulations to the 20 forum members who predicted a fully successful mission.
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Offline jongoff

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Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.

Way to go Blue!

~Jon

Offline Tywin

Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

With Blue always optimistic!! :D
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Offline Tywin

Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.

Way to go Blue!

~Jon

Soon Gravitics to New Glenn ;)
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Offline rpapo

Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.

Way to go Blue!

~Jon
And the only two companies to succeed so far are American.  Not that I'm remotely close to being a MAGA, but it is something to be proud of.  Though I expect the Chinese will succeed relatively soon.
Following the space program since before Apollo 8.

Offline sstli2

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Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.

Way to go Blue!

~Jon
And the only two companies to succeed so far are American.  Not that I'm remotely close to being a MAGA, but it is something to be proud of.  Though I expect the Chinese will succeed relatively soon.

Oh yes, the Chinese are coming soon - within a year. And Europe is about 3 or 4 years away.

Offline redneck

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I predicted landing failure. Good to be wrong.

Offline jongoff

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Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.

As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.

Way to go Blue!

~Jon
And the only two companies to succeed so far are American.  Not that I'm remotely close to being a MAGA, but it is something to be proud of.  Though I expect the Chinese will succeed relatively soon.

Oh yes, the Chinese are coming soon - within a year. And Europe is about 3 or 4 years away.

It will be interesting to see who ends up being the third, fourth, and fifth organizations to achieve successful first stage recovery and reuse. And even more exciting to see who the first 3-4 are that achieve full recovery and reuse.

I think the Chinese have a good shot at being third for booster recovery, but it wouldn't surprise me if 4 out of the first 5 companies to demonstrate first stage recovery and reuse were US companies.

~Jon
« Last Edit: 11/13/2025 11:17 pm by jongoff »

Offline Metalskin

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I'm very happy to be wrong. I was pessimistic because of how many times I thought Space X would make it before they actually did. Different approaches and all, also Blue had the advantage of knowing it's possible. But even with all that, amazing result today and so happy for them.

I wonder if they will change to a hover slam in the future?
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Offline sdsds

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[...] Different approaches and all

Yes, this. Blue's success with GS2 (first flight delivered payload to MEO; second flight delivered payload to xGEO) and now recovery of GS1 shows that "Gradatim Ferociter" is not all just talk. Methodical engineering, manufacturing and procedure development actually does work!
« Last Edit: 11/13/2025 11:49 pm by sdsds »
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Offline Robotbeat

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[...] Different approaches and all

Yes, this. Blue's success with GS2 (first flight delivered payload to MEO; second flight delivered payload to xGEO) and now recovery of GS1 shows that "Gradatim Ferociter" is not all just talk. Methodical engineering, manufacturing and procedure development actually does work!
I expected them to succeed completely in this mission. And they did!

But do not mistake succeeding on a mission with validating the overall strategy. They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer. This is, IMO, an utter strategic failure compared to the alternative approach. And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.
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Offline envy887

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[...] Different approaches and all

Yes, this. Blue's success with GS2 (first flight delivered payload to MEO; second flight delivered payload to xGEO) and now recovery of GS1 shows that "Gradatim Ferociter" is not all just talk. Methodical engineering, manufacturing and procedure development actually does work!
I expected them to succeed completely in this mission. And they did!

As did I.

Quote
But do not mistake succeeding on a mission with validating the overall strategy. They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer. This is, IMO, an utter strategic failure compared to the alternative approach. And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.

100% all of this. Every bit of it.

Still way ahead of Ariane and ULA, though...

Offline Bob Shaw

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Landing is half the battle. Reflight is the actual win, especially for a hardware-meagre operation like Blue. If they can nail reuse (and if they can get somewhere with upper stage recovery and reuse, where their wider diameter than Falcon 9 will be a big help) then they have an economically viable commercial and military niche. Say goodbye to ULA though!

Offline sstli2

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did.

They were NOT pursuing an orbital rocket program before SpaceX was.

And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.

Don't mistake this course-correction for the SpaceX approach, either. There were no grasshoppers or Starhoppers. There were no pathfinders or test flights. There was no "maybe clear the pad" or "maybe make orbit".

The only thing Bezos changed was getting rid of Bob Smith and the Honeywell crew, who were ineffective leaders. It's still fundamentally the same traditional rocket program, except now with results.

Why are results happening all of a sudden after a decade of nothing? Because that's how a traditional rocket development program works. You simply don't see or hear anything until the engineering is mature and the on-the-ground testing is complete.

Offline Robotbeat

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Landing is half the battle. Reflight is the actual win, especially for a hardware-meagre operation like Blue. If they can nail reuse (and if they can get somewhere with upper stage recovery and reuse, where their wider diameter than Falcon 9 will be a big help) then they have an economically viable commercial and military niche. Say goodbye to ULA though!
I actually think they will. The stage looked in good shape and they babied it.
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Offline Robotbeat

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)
« Last Edit: 11/14/2025 03:37 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline Coastal Ron

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And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.
Don't mistake this course-correction for the SpaceX approach, either.

I don't know why you think someone would think their changes were to be more "SpaceX approach", because there were likely multiple "approaches" that they could have taken - Blue Origin was clearly not making progress in a healthy way.

Quote
There were no grasshoppers or Starhoppers. There were no pathfinders or test flights.

What? Are you forgetting New Shepard? New Glenn 1st stage is just an upsized New Shepard 1st stage, and they have a LOT of flights under their belt perfecting landings with New Shepard. I think this was key to the success of their second flight today.

Quote
The only thing Bezos changed was getting rid of Bob Smith and the Honeywell crew, who were ineffective leaders.

And that was ultimately the fault of Jeff Bezos for letting them stay on for so long. There is no one else to blame but him. And I'm glad he finally did it, but it was clear to EVERYONE that it was needed years before he finally made the changes.

Quote
It's still fundamentally the same traditional rocket program, except now with results.

Companies are not just one person, they are organisms made up of a whole lot of people, that are managed at multiple levels. The leaders at the top determine how that organization operates, and with Bob Smith they were not an energetic organization. Now they are, but it is because of many changes, in some cases changes of people. But not the "same program", except for the same goal.

Quote
Why are results happening all of a sudden after a decade of nothing? Because that's how a traditional rocket development program works. You simply don't see or hear anything until the engineering is mature and the on-the-ground testing is complete.

There have been many debates about the differences between "Old Space" and "New Space", and to me Blue Origin should be operating as a "New Space" entity, but Bob Smith sure made it seem like it was an "Old Space" entity.

Too early to tell if they have fully made the change to "New Space", but the signs are encouraging...  :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline StraumliBlight

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)

Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2025 07:48 am by StraumliBlight »

Offline sstli2

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There have been many debates about the differences between "Old Space" and "New Space", and to me Blue Origin should be operating as a "New Space" entity, but Bob Smith sure made it seem like it was an "Old Space" entity.

Too early to tell if they have fully made the change to "New Space", but the signs are encouraging...  :D

The point is this: this whole "Old Space" / "New Space" is just bunk culture-mythos repeated on internet forums.

What ends up happening is everyone revises history to say that companies that achieve success were operating like "New Space" companies, and companies that are slow or are unsuccessful were operating like "Old Space" companies.

The change in leadership at Blue will have positive effects for their cadence ramp going-forward, but the engineering is the same and the flights results would not have differed. What happened yesterday is the cumulative result of the past decade of efforts under multiple leadership regimes.

Offline Coastal Ron

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There have been many debates about the differences between "Old Space" and "New Space", and to me Blue Origin should be operating as a "New Space" entity, but Bob Smith sure made it seem like it was an "Old Space" entity.

Too early to tell if they have fully made the change to "New Space", but the signs are encouraging...  :D
The point is this: this whole "Old Space" / "New Space" is just bunk culture-mythos repeated on internet forums.

No doubt there is lots of debate about what is "New Space" and what is "Old Space", but it is pretty clear that at least one set of comparisons is that New Space will risk their own money to innovate, whereas Old Space wants to get paid by the government to innovate. So using that definition Blue Origin is clearly New Space regarding New Glenn, but for HLS it is kind of mixed bag.

Quote
What ends up happening is everyone revises history to say that companies that achieve success were operating like "New Space" companies, and companies that are slow or are unsuccessful were operating like "Old Space" companies.

Under the prior management Blue Origin was definitely looking like the CEO wanted to follow the Old Space path, despite Jeff Bezos personally funding Blue Origin.

Quote
The change in leadership at Blue will have positive effects for their cadence ramp going-forward, but the engineering is the same and the flights results would not have differed.

Not sure how many large companies you have worked for, especially in engineering organizations, but management styles do matter. Just because you have a bunch of talented people that does NOT mean they will be able to produce inspired work. It takes the right leadership to let them work in such a way that they are not only motivated but have synergy with everyone else. Bad management stifles such arrangements.

Quote
What happened yesterday is the cumulative result of the past decade of efforts under multiple leadership regimes.

Well, yeah...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Robotbeat

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)

Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.
Yup, and DC-X earlier than that.
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Offline SpaceLizard

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)

Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.
Yup, and DC-X earlier than that.
The DC-X first flew, for 59 seconds, on 18 August 1993; it was claimed that it was the first time a rocket had landed vertically on Earth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)

Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.
Yup, and DC-X earlier than that.
The DC-X first flew, for 59 seconds, on 18 August 1993; it was claimed that it was the first time a rocket had landed vertically on Earth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X

It's too bad the Goddards' first flight didn't also hop.

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The rocket rose 41 feet in the air during its 2.5-second flight, landing 184 feet away in a cabbage field.

I probably landed on it's side.

Source: 95 Years Ago: Goddard’s First Liquid-Fueled Rocket
« Last Edit: 11/15/2025 01:14 am by catdlr »
PSA #3:  Paywall? View this video on how-to temporary Disable Java-Script: youtu.be/KvBv16tw-UM

Offline thespacecow

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)

Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.

What's funny is in your linked Blue Origin PR about Goddard, Bezos himself advocated for SpaceX style iterative development:

Quote from: Jeff Bezos
Smaller, more frequent steps drive a faster rate of learning, help us maintain focus, and give each of us an opportunity to see our latest work fly sooner.

This is not "traditional rocket development program".

Offline thespacecow

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They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did.

They were NOT pursuing an orbital rocket program before SpaceX was.

Wrong, they were pursuing reusable orbital rocket program all along, it's just they think the path to an orbital RLV is through a sub-orbital RLV.

As Bezos said in the Goddard PR piece: "Our first objective is developing New Shepard, a vertical take-off, vertical-landing vehicle designed to take a small number of astronauts on a sub-orbital journey into space.", and then he said during announcement of New Glenn: "This step-by-step approach is a powerful enabler of boldness and a critical ingredient in achieving the audacious. We’re excited to give you a preview of our next step. One we’ve been working on for four years. Meet New Glenn"

They're not pursuing suborbital for its own sake, it's a step towards orbital rocket. This is a common belief in the 2000s, many companies tried to go down this path, for example XCOR. SpaceX's success with expendable orbital LV to reusable orbital LV path made people forget this used to be the dominant strategy.

So Blue Origin was pursuing reusable orbital rocket around the same time SpaceX was, they lost to SpaceX by 10 years because - among other things - they chose the wrong path.

Offline TrevorMonty

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.

They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did.

They were NOT pursuing an orbital rocket program before SpaceX was.


Wrong, they were pursuing reusable orbital rocket program all along, it's just they think the path to an orbital RLV is through a sub-orbital RLV.

As Bezos said in the Goddard PR piece: "Our first objective is developing New Shepard, a vertical take-off, vertical-landing vehicle designed to take a small number of astronauts on a sub-orbital journey into space.", and then he said during announcement of New Glenn: "This step-by-step approach is a powerful enabler of boldness and a critical ingredient in achieving the audacious. We’re excited to give you a preview of our next step. One we’ve been working on for four years. Meet New Glenn"

They're not pursuing suborbital for its own sake, it's a step towards orbital rocket. This is a common belief in the 2000s, many companies tried to go down this path, for example XCOR. SpaceX's success with expendable orbital LV to reusable orbital LV path made people forget this used to be the dominant strategy.

So Blue Origin was pursuing reusable orbital rocket around the same time SpaceX was, they lost to SpaceX by 10 years because - among other things - they chose the wrong path.

There was smaller BE3 powered LV in plans at one stage to launch their crew capsule. After missing out on commercial crew they shelved it and moved onto NG.

Offline thespacecow

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And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.

Don't mistake this course-correction for the SpaceX approach, either. There were no grasshoppers or Starhoppers. There were no pathfinders or test flights. There was no "maybe clear the pad" or "maybe make orbit".

The only thing Bezos changed was getting rid of Bob Smith and the Honeywell crew, who were ineffective leaders. It's still fundamentally the same traditional rocket program, except now with results.

Why are results happening all of a sudden after a decade of nothing? Because that's how a traditional rocket development program works. You simply don't see or hear anything until the engineering is mature and the on-the-ground testing is complete.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/11/blue-origin-says-its-just-getting-started-with-the-new-glenn-rocket/

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"The iterative design from our current 7×2 vehicle means we can build this rocket quickly."



https://x.com/SpaceAbhi/status/1991555967771897979

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Entirely expected and predictable. 
It's going to drive some NASA and DOD launch vehicle certification people crazy though.😂
Saw the same thing with the F9.

Quote from: Blue Origin
Starting with NG-3, we will phase in a series of upgrades to the New Glenn launch system designed to increase payload performance, launch cadence, and enhance reliability.



So much for New Glenn is "a traditional rocket development program"...

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