Total Members Voted: 64
Voting closed: 10/25/2025 02:10 pm
Too few choices.Launch and staging, not quite nominal 2nd stage flight, payload separation.Botched payload orbital insertion, failure to land booster.
Too few choices.Launch snd staging, not quite nominal 2nd stage flight, payload separation.Botched payload orbital insertion, failure to land booster.
What’s the boundary between reentry and landing?My opinion is that the booster will go “off-nominal” somewhere on that unspecified border between a reentry burn, which Blue has not said if they are doing again, and “landing”, like in hypersonic descent or at the supersonic start of the landing burn, far above the barge. Remember, Blue has never tried either of those, because NS is configured in a different manner.
PS. Any demerits for leaving another large chunk of space debris in a long-lived orbit?Full success includes deorbiting the second stage, or they’re just hacking their way into the launch market.
New Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing. Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank. Turtles are awesome.
Quote from: Mr. Scott on 10/05/2025 03:43 amNew Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing. Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank. Turtles are awesome.Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development.
Quote from: redneck on 10/05/2025 09:34 amQuote from: Mr. Scott on 10/05/2025 03:43 amNew Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing. Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank. Turtles are awesome.Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development. "Perfect", in this context, simply means "all documented requirements fulfilled to the documented standards". As for all-up testing, it worked out pretty well for the Saturn Vs, especially Apollo 8.
Quote from: laszlo on 10/06/2025 12:14 pmQuote from: redneck on 10/05/2025 09:34 amQuote from: Mr. Scott on 10/05/2025 03:43 amNew Glenn is due for a clean flight with a perfect landing. Unlike Starship, they don’t seem likely to make same mistake twice or even ten times. Better is the enemy of good enough, but perfect keeps you from being fed to the shark tank. Turtles are awesome.Perfect is an illusion of a limited mind. It means you believe there is no room for improvement anywhere. Both companies going for all up testing should concern people that have done development. "Perfect", in this context, simply means "all documented requirements fulfilled to the documented standards". As for all-up testing, it worked out pretty well for the Saturn Vs, especially Apollo 8.Expendable systems have little choice in the matter. Whether it hits 200 feet or 200 miles, the vehicle is lost. Reusable systems should have and exercise the option of incremental flight expansion. Much like a new class of supersonic aircraft may have a large number of flights before it passes the sound barrier. First flights sometimes don't even retract the landing gear. Same with new equipment types and cars. You don't go from drawing board to Indy without a lot of intermediate testing. As for Apollo, good point, but it is an outlier compared to all the vehicle types that failed early and often.
To describe it as a complete success I'd want the booster safely back in port. I'm predicting the booster makes a credible attempt at a landing burn and remains sufficiently in control that it gets within visible range of the recovery platform.
Looks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/13/2025 08:26 pmLooks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.Way to go Blue!~Jon
Quote from: jongoff on 11/13/2025 09:05 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/13/2025 08:26 pmLooks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.Way to go Blue!~JonAnd the only two companies to succeed so far are American. Not that I'm remotely close to being a MAGA, but it is something to be proud of. Though I expect the Chinese will succeed relatively soon.
Quote from: rpapo on 11/13/2025 09:34 pmQuote from: jongoff on 11/13/2025 09:05 pmQuote from: sstli2 on 11/13/2025 08:26 pmLooks like 69% of you were wrong. Kudos to the optimistic 31%.As one of the pessimistic ones, I'm extremely glad to be proven wrong here. Having New Glenn start hitting its stride is a big deal for the industry. Second company to successfully recover a booster from an orbital launch via powered landing. Pretty dang amazing.Way to go Blue!~JonAnd the only two companies to succeed so far are American. Not that I'm remotely close to being a MAGA, but it is something to be proud of. Though I expect the Chinese will succeed relatively soon.Oh yes, the Chinese are coming soon - within a year. And Europe is about 3 or 4 years away.
[...] Different approaches and all
Quote from: Metalskin on 11/13/2025 11:26 pm[...] Different approaches and allYes, this. Blue's success with GS2 (first flight delivered payload to MEO; second flight delivered payload to xGEO) and now recovery of GS1 shows that "Gradatim Ferociter" is not all just talk. Methodical engineering, manufacturing and procedure development actually does work!
Quote from: sdsds on 11/13/2025 11:48 pmQuote from: Metalskin on 11/13/2025 11:26 pm[...] Different approaches and allYes, this. Blue's success with GS2 (first flight delivered payload to MEO; second flight delivered payload to xGEO) and now recovery of GS1 shows that "Gradatim Ferociter" is not all just talk. Methodical engineering, manufacturing and procedure development actually does work!I expected them to succeed completely in this mission. And they did!
But do not mistake succeeding on a mission with validating the overall strategy. They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer. This is, IMO, an utter strategic failure compared to the alternative approach. And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.
They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.
And actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.
Landing is half the battle. Reflight is the actual win, especially for a hardware-meagre operation like Blue. If they can nail reuse (and if they can get somewhere with upper stage recovery and reuse, where their wider diameter than Falcon 9 will be a big help) then they have an economically viable commercial and military niche. Say goodbye to ULA though!
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amAnd actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.Don't mistake this course-correction for the SpaceX approach, either.
There were no grasshoppers or Starhoppers. There were no pathfinders or test flights.
The only thing Bezos changed was getting rid of Bob Smith and the Honeywell crew, who were ineffective leaders.
It's still fundamentally the same traditional rocket program, except now with results.
Why are results happening all of a sudden after a decade of nothing? Because that's how a traditional rocket development program works. You simply don't see or hear anything until the engineering is mature and the on-the-ground testing is complete.
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2025 01:14 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)
There have been many debates about the differences between "Old Space" and "New Space", and to me Blue Origin should be operating as a "New Space" entity, but Bob Smith sure made it seem like it was an "Old Space" entity.Too early to tell if they have fully made the change to "New Space", but the signs are encouraging...
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/14/2025 05:12 amThere have been many debates about the differences between "Old Space" and "New Space", and to me Blue Origin should be operating as a "New Space" entity, but Bob Smith sure made it seem like it was an "Old Space" entity.Too early to tell if they have fully made the change to "New Space", but the signs are encouraging... The point is this: this whole "Old Space" / "New Space" is just bunk culture-mythos repeated on internet forums.
What ends up happening is everyone revises history to say that companies that achieve success were operating like "New Space" companies, and companies that are slow or are unsuccessful were operating like "Old Space" companies.
The change in leadership at Blue will have positive effects for their cadence ramp going-forward, but the engineering is the same and the flights results would not have differed.
What happened yesterday is the cumulative result of the past decade of efforts under multiple leadership regimes.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 03:37 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2025 01:14 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.
Quote from: StraumliBlight on 11/14/2025 07:47 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 03:37 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2025 01:14 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.Yup, and DC-X earlier than that.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/15/2025 12:55 amQuote from: StraumliBlight on 11/14/2025 07:47 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 03:37 amQuote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2025 01:14 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did....They did not. Grasshopper and F9dev1 flew before New Shepard. (How many levels of silly gotchas we gonna do here?)Goddard hopped on November 13th, 2006 (exactly 19 years before the first New Glenn landing) and also 5 years, 10 months before Grasshopper.Yup, and DC-X earlier than that.The DC-X first flew, for 59 seconds, on 18 August 1993; it was claimed that it was the first time a rocket had landed vertically on Earth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X
The rocket rose 41 feet in the air during its 2.5-second flight, landing 184 feet away in a cabbage field.
Smaller, more frequent steps drive a faster rate of learning, help us maintain focus, and give each of us an opportunity to see our latest work fly sooner.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did.They were NOT pursuing an orbital rocket program before SpaceX was.
Quote from: sstli2 on 11/14/2025 01:14 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amThey were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse *before SpaceX was* (and for a long time, had more strings-free money to invest in it), but it took them nearly a full decade longer.They were pursuing VTVL rocket reuse before SpaceX was. And they achieved it before SpaceX did.They were NOT pursuing an orbital rocket program before SpaceX was.Wrong, they were pursuing reusable orbital rocket program all along, it's just they think the path to an orbital RLV is through a sub-orbital RLV.As Bezos said in the Goddard PR piece: "Our first objective is developing New Shepard, a vertical take-off, vertical-landing vehicle designed to take a small number of astronauts on a sub-orbital journey into space.", and then he said during announcement of New Glenn: "This step-by-step approach is a powerful enabler of boldness and a critical ingredient in achieving the audacious. We’re excited to give you a preview of our next step. One we’ve been working on for four years. Meet New Glenn"They're not pursuing suborbital for its own sake, it's a step towards orbital rocket. This is a common belief in the 2000s, many companies tried to go down this path, for example XCOR. SpaceX's success with expendable orbital LV to reusable orbital LV path made people forget this used to be the dominant strategy.So Blue Origin was pursuing reusable orbital rocket around the same time SpaceX was, they lost to SpaceX by 10 years because - among other things - they chose the wrong path.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 11/14/2025 12:03 amAnd actually, I think Bezos realized it and course-corrected Blue a few years ago.Don't mistake this course-correction for the SpaceX approach, either. There were no grasshoppers or Starhoppers. There were no pathfinders or test flights. There was no "maybe clear the pad" or "maybe make orbit".The only thing Bezos changed was getting rid of Bob Smith and the Honeywell crew, who were ineffective leaders. It's still fundamentally the same traditional rocket program, except now with results.Why are results happening all of a sudden after a decade of nothing? Because that's how a traditional rocket development program works. You simply don't see or hear anything until the engineering is mature and the on-the-ground testing is complete.
"The iterative design from our current 7×2 vehicle means we can build this rocket quickly."
Entirely expected and predictable. It's going to drive some NASA and DOD launch vehicle certification people crazy though.😂Saw the same thing with the F9.Quote from: Blue OriginStarting with NG-3, we will phase in a series of upgrades to the New Glenn launch system designed to increase payload performance, launch cadence, and enhance reliability.
Starting with NG-3, we will phase in a series of upgrades to the New Glenn launch system designed to increase payload performance, launch cadence, and enhance reliability.