Author Topic: Will Firefly Alpha be retired soon? (Read 19349 times)

PM3 · « **Reply #20 on:** 08/23/2025 06:42 pm »

I voted for 2026, but mulling to launch from Hokkaido does not look at all like retirement plans.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43326.msg2709955#msg2709955

AndrewM · « **Reply #21 on:** 10/24/2025 12:49 am »

Quote from: PM3 on 08/23/2025 06:42 pm

I voted for 2026, but mulling to launch from Hokkaido does not look at all like retirement plans.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43326.msg2709955#msg2709955

Based on their recent plans to add 2 new pads (Wallops & Esrange) as well as this study for Hokkaido, I don't see them retiring it soon unless both LM & L3Harris decide to remove or not firm up their contracts.

TrevorMonty · « **Reply #22 on:** 10/24/2025 02:48 am »

If Firefly can't sort reliability issues out with Alpha then there is no reason to believe Eclipse will be any more reliable.

Part of reason Neutron has some credibility is Electron flight history. SS fight history is terrible but F9 has shown SpaceX knows how to build very reliable RLV. Even NG would've benefitted from NS even though its suborbital.

Cheaper to learn lessons on small LV before going larger, which may cost Terran R program in long run.

redneck · « **Reply #23 on:** 10/24/2025 09:27 am »

Quote from: TrevorMonty on 10/24/2025 02:48 am

If Firefly can't sort reliability issues out with Alpha then there is no reason to believe Eclipse will be any more reliable.

Part of reason Neutron has some credibility is Electron flight history. SS fight history is terrible but F9 has shown SpaceX knows how to build very reliable RLV. Even NG would've benefitted from NS even though its suborbital.

Cheaper to learn lessons on small LV before going larger, which may cost Terran R program in long run.

It seems to me that a smaller Starship precursor could have sorted out a lot of the methane issues quicker. That opinion is not widely shared.

AmigaClone · « **Reply #24 on:** 10/24/2025 03:21 pm »

Quote from: redneck on 10/24/2025 09:27 am

Quote from: TrevorMonty on 10/24/2025 02:48 am
If Firefly can't sort reliability issues out with Alpha then there is no reason to believe Eclipse will be any more reliable.

Part of reason Neutron has some credibility is Electron flight history. SS fight history is terrible but F9 has shown SpaceX knows how to build very reliable RLV. Even NG would've benefitted from NS even though its suborbital.

Cheaper to learn lessons on small LV before going larger, which may cost Terran R program in long run.

It seems to me that a smaller Starship precursor could have sorted out a lot of the methane issues quicker. That opinion is not widely shared.

I seem to recall a dude by the name of Elon speculating in an interview that it might have been better to have started with a smaller methane launcher. I believe at the time they thought they had solved their major issues.