Will a Starship attempt landing on Mars in 2027?

[Oersted]

Will SpaceX attempt a Starship landing on Mars in 2027, yes or no?

- Obviously uncrewed.
- It's the attempt that counts, not whether the landing succeeds or not.
- If it is only a Mars flyby, that would count as a "no".
- If there is aerocapture with intent to land but the ship is destroyed during EDL that would count as a "yes".
- If there is aerobraking but with just an attempt to enter Mars orbit that would count as a "no".

Please give your reasoning behind your vote. That's the interesting part!

[jongoff]

I just have a hard time seeing them getting Starship operating well enough, and the other pieces in place in time for the 2026 Mars launch window. Especially if they need to get in-space refueling working for the mission. Honestly, I think they'll be hard pressed to even ship a stunt that has zero chance of successfully landing, but which they can label as a landing attempt. Not knocking their talent, there's just not a lot of time left between here and there, and Starship still hasn't actually had a full flight to orbit, with orbit insertion and deorbit.

Maybe Flight 10 will solve all, and then in-space refueling development will go super fast, etc... But seriously does anyone think they're that close to out of the woods yet? They'll get there, but I think Mars in 2026 is... "optimistic"

~Jon

[sdsds]

They'll achieve a fly-by; they'll attempt a powered orbit insertion; they won't attempt to enter the atmosphere or land.

Rationale: to launch in this window Starship can't be much more than what it is now. It will need a Raptor that can relight on-orbit, the ability to receive propellant on-orbit and an inter-planetary communications system. That's asking enough; getting everything else needed for a landing is ... unlikely.

[AmigaClone]

For starters, I can see several more options for this poll.

1) Starship will not be in a position to attempt a trans-Mars insertion burn in 2026, much less land on Mars in 2027.
2) Starship will perform a trans-Mars insertion burn in 2026, but fail in route to Mars.
3) Starship will perform a trans-Mars insertion burn, but not attempt a Mars landing in 2027.
4) Starship will perform a trans-Mars insertion burn, and attempt a Mars landing in 2027.
5) Even if Starship performs a trans-Mars insertion burn it will fail in route.
6) Even if Starship performs a trans-Mars insertion burn it will not attempt to land in 2027.
7) If Starship performs a trans-Mars insertion burn in 2026 it will attempt to land in 2027.

Of those seven options I would vote for #7. Granted, I feel the chances of a Starship arriving at Mars in 2027 to be under 10%.

[AC in NC]

For starters, I can see several more options for this poll.

1) Starship will not be in a position to attempt a trans-Mars insertion burn in 2026, much less land on Mars in 2027.
2) Starship will perform a trans-Mars insertion burn in 2026, but fail in route to Mars.
3) Starship will perform a trans-Mars insertion burn, but not attempt a Mars landing in 2027.
4) Starship will perform a trans-Mars insertion burn, and attempt a Mars landing in 2027.
5) Even if Starship performs a trans-Mars insertion burn it will fail in route.
6) Even if Starship performs a trans-Mars insertion burn it will not attempt to land in 2027.
7) If Starship performs a trans-Mars insertion burn in 2026 it will attempt to land in 2027.

Of those seven options I would vote for #7. Granted, I feel the chances of a Starship arriving at Mars in 2027 to be under 10%.

Those are options for a different poll, not consistent with the framing or purpose of this one and option 7 does not answer this poll.  Even the "arriving" opinion doesn't answer the poll.

My answer is "No".  The current cadence of progress, while amazing, does not suggest that the very substantial elements necessary will come together in time.

[meekGee]

Well, let's project back a year, and look at the delta, so we're talking flights 4,5,6 of V1, and 7,8,9 of V2.

In that time span, they streamlined Booster, advanced Raptor, and did make a lot of progress on Ship design, except for, well  the gremlin

Assuming we get past the gremlin, what will they be flying in a years time?

They have booster recovery and reuse. They will soon have two lainch towers.

I think they can accomplish a LOT, but it all depends on the gremlin.
P0

[Kaputnik]

No way.
We're already half way through 2025 and Starship V2 has proven itself unable to reliably complete ascent.
They need to demonstrate a far more robust vehicle which will not spin out of control, before they can even think about full orbit insertion. That could take the rest of the year.
Then they need to launch in quick succession and achieve rendezvous and docking of the largest vehicle ever flown, and propellant transfer on a scale that is orders of magnitude greater than every previously attempted, using cryogenic propellants. This will necessitate successful landing and reuse of Starship tankers.
*IF* they manage to launch the six required Starships in the short window dictated by boiloff rates, the Mars-bound vehicle then has to survive 6-9 months of deep space travel and arrive with its raptors fully functioning for landing.

I would love to be proven wrong, but I just cannot see a pathway to a successful Mars landing attempt in the 2026/27 window.

[Vultur]

I voted no, but not with high confidence on that.

If the question was launching a Starship towards Mars, I'd be much more 50/50. There's a lot left to be done, but apparently the plan is to speed up launch rates.

But actually landing is a much larger ask; I wouldn't really expect late 2026 Starships to be ready for the long interplanetary cruise.

[CraigLieb]

Simple answer … Elon time.

[Cabbage123]

No. They need reliable launch, orbit and refuelling at the very minimum. At the moment, I am going to estimate that they'll need at least another 20 flights to get to the point where getting vehicles to orbit and having them refuel each other quickly enough is at all reliable.

I think Elon mentioned flying once a month, which takes us 20 months out to Feb 2027, but given that there will be a mixture of easy and hard problems (such as they are facing now, which has burned through 6 months already), I reckon 6 weeks a flight is probably more likely (Sept 2027).

Even if they could somehow get to that point by the end of 2026 (by increasing cadence and/or needing for less flights to get to done), the chance of Starship having no mission ending failures between Earth and Mars, is almost certainly less than 50% anyway.

[Cheapchips]

I went with no too.  The V2 Ship issues have probably pushed the 'candace fixes everything' horizon beyond the end of 2026. 

We need to see multiple reuses of boosters too.  I'm not sure the V2 booster is good enough for that.

For Mars '27 to look remotely possible, V3 everything would have to come out of the gate with stella performance by the end of this year.  That would be surprising.

If we see V3 stacks launching out of Starbase and Florida at the start of 2026, Mars will at least feel a little more within reach.

[rfdesigner]

Hard to call.

What do they need to achieve:

1: stop the leaks
2: engine relight
3: ship catch (so as to inspect the heat shield, required for Mars EDL)
4: orbital flight
5: successful tanker launch (new class of 2nd stage, this might work first time, but who knows)
6: orbital refuel
7: somewhere in all of this they'll want to do V3

I'm going to be pessimistic and say the leak problem will take them another couple of launches to really fix, the next leak will also require a FAA investigation, ones after that won't (they'll be too small)

I'll give that 8 weeks to flight 10, another 8 to flight 11, then they'll go monthly.

Flight 10 makes it back to the surface with smaller leaks, small enough they can maintain control but not solved, satellite launch demo, raptor relight proved, but significant leaks cause another FAA investigation, date: late July

Flight 11 last of the sub orbitals no leaks!, no investigation, date: late September

Flight 12 first orbital, dunk the ship in the Gulf, within sight of the towers, real sats deployed, late November

Flight 13 ship catch, late December.

Flight 14 / Flight 15 late Feb 26, orbital refuel attempt, it means a new vehicle (tanker) so I'll vote for failure and FAA investigation.

Flight 16/17 refuel success. late May

Somewhere they'll also want to do V3, that adds another month or two to the timeline.

IMHO, a single empty ship could do a refuel in orbit, and make it to Mars by the end of 26 with some slack in that time line.

[StraumliBlight]

Date	First Mars Window	Second Mars Window
2016	1 Red Dragon in 2018	1 ITS in 2022
2017	2 Red Dragons in 2020	?
2017	2 Cargo BFRs in 2022	4 BFRs in 2024 (including crew)
2018	2 Cargo BFRs in 2022	4 BFRs in 2024 (including crew)
2019	2 Cargo Starships in 2022	4 Starships in 2024-2026 (including crew)
2020	1 Cargo Starship in 2024	?
2021	1 Cargo Starship in 2024	?
2022	?	? Starships in 2028 (including crew)
2023	1 Cargo Starship in 2026	?
2024	5 Cargo Starships in 2026	>2 Starships in 2028 (including crew)
2025	5 Cargo Starships in 2026	20 Cargo Starships in 2028

I voted No, but if they successfully catch Starship this year and perform orbital refuelling early next year, it might be possible.

"I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by".

[saturnsky]

Starship has Not reached orbit,,has not really had a successful sub orbital flight,,,has not proved its reusability, and certainly not its ability to refuel multiple times in orbit,,,,no

[Kaputnik]

Starship has Not reached orbit,,has not really had a successful sub orbital flight,,,has not proved its reusability, and certainly not its ability to refuel multiple times in orbit,,,,no

V1 had demonstrated the ability to reach orbital speed and maintain manoeuvrability, including engine relight. The change to V2 has messed everything up.

[BN]

yes.

we've already seen ship "orbital" launch and water landing. the only real impediment to trying this would be orbital refilling, which I expect they will sort out next year. I am not nearly as pessimistic about V2 as some others here, and even less so V3.

[Mercurius]

Hard to call.

What do they need to achieve:

1: stop the leaks
2: engine relight
3: ship catch (so as to inspect the heat shield, required for Mars EDL)
4: orbital flight
5: successful tanker launch (new class of 2nd stage, this might work first time, but who knows)
6: orbital refuel
7: somewhere in all of this they'll want to do V3

I'm going to be pessimistic and say the leak problem will take them another couple of launches to really fix, the next leak will also require a FAA investigation, ones after that won't (they'll be too small)

I'll give that 8 weeks to flight 10, another 8 to flight 11, then they'll go monthly.

Flight 10 makes it back to the surface with smaller leaks, small enough they can maintain control but not solved, satellite launch demo, raptor relight proved, but significant leaks cause another FAA investigation, date: late July

Flight 11 last of the sub orbitals no leaks!, no investigation, date: late September

Flight 12 first orbital, dunk the ship in the Gulf, within sight of the towers, real sats deployed, late November

Flight 13 ship catch, late December.

Flight 14 / Flight 15 late Feb 26, orbital refuel attempt, it means a new vehicle (tanker) so I'll vote for failure and FAA investigation.

Flight 16/17 refuel success. late May

Somewhere they'll also want to do V3, that adds another month or two to the timeline.

IMHO, a single empty ship could do a refuel in orbit, and make it to Mars by the end of 26 with some slack in that time line.

Yes.

I’m with rfdavis on the timeline with slight addition that cadence will be 3 weeks by next May, due to positive effects of V3 ship in Texas. This will add up till end of November 8 ship launch, which is sufficient for practice fly with 2 launch, and 2 ship sent towards Mars with minimal payload.

If Florida comes online also somewhere early next year, it could also add 3-4 launch by end of November 2026 with a conservative estimate, with reuse in effect. This is one more ship possibility towards Mars, or used for other experiments…

[redneck]

I voted yes based on my track record for the first successful F9 landing. It was a return to flight and RTLS and upgrades no the same flight and I was quite pessimistic. So I think no, but vote yes. How's that for contradictory thinking?

If one heads towards Mars, I don't see a successful landing.

[ELinder]

I voted no. At most they'll try to get out of Earth orbit and headed in the direction of Mars to see how tank insulations, thermal control, and boil off are managed.

[sanman]

Musk's commitment to doing a Mars launch by end of Trump's term seems to have been the starting point for speculation on this.
More recently in Musk's latest "state of the program" speech, he'd said he was aiming for end of 2026, if all went well.
(Elon time applies to all such optimistic projections)

And as this morning's headlines show, things are once again going sideways, due to frictions between Musk and POTUS.

So unless those things mend themselves, then it's more unlikely than ever that Starship will be traveling to Mars in next couple of years.

On-orbit propellant loading seems to be a key milestone to watch out for. It would be very cool if that could be achieved within the next couple of years.
Just imagine the huge scope of BEO missions this could open up for NASA, once that threshold has been crossed.
But are NASA planners actively preparing in advance for this, or will they just react once the capability is available in tangible form?