POLL: Flight 10 (or other) ship catch if Flight 9 succeeds?

[Skye]

POLL: Flight 10 (or other) catch if Flight 9 succeeds?

What do you guys think?

(I’ve never done a poll before, sorry if this one doesn’t work )

Edit: it didn’t work sorry

Edit edit: it works now! Thanks CatDLR! 

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Please clarify the question you are asking (edit the first post and its title)

I think it is: if Starship flight 9 succeeds, for which Starship flight will SpaceX attempt to catch the ship?

If so then using Roman numerals for flight numbers is slightly confusing, as SpaceX don’t use them. You can edit the poll options.

[lightleviathan]

I'd think that SpaceX would want to get some successful flights of V2 first and demonstrate ocean landings, so probably F11 of F12. I think that they might even do an RTLS by landing a couple KM offshore of Boca on F10.

[DanClemmensen]

Ever the optimist, I voted for flight 10. It cannot be flight 9, because they must reach orbit before they can attempt a catch (Ship must orbit to get back to a place where it can deorbit to reach Starbase). But in keeping with their self-imposed rules, they cannot try an orbital flight until they first demonstrate Raptor relight on a free-return (i.e. "suborbital") flight. So, flight 9 must succeed as a suborbital flight that convincingly demonstrates raptor relight in zero-g after a 30-minute coast phase, and then flight 10 can go orbital and try a return to Starbase after seven(?) orbits.

[Framryk]

I'd think that SpaceX would want to get some successful flights of V2 first and demonstrate ocean landings, so probably F11 of F12. I think that they might even do an RTLS by landing a couple KM offshore of Boca on F10.

This I think is more likely, based upon booster approach so far. Merely re-entry with the ship and steering safely over Mexico to the Gulf is a major achievement, then 'virtual tower catch' slightly offshore at Boca Chica would set Flight 11 up for a catch... IMHO, and vote! Nice poll though 

[AmigaClone]

I'd think that SpaceX would want to get some successful flights of V2 first and demonstrate ocean landings, so probably F11 of F12. I think that they might even do an RTLS by landing a couple KM offshore of Boca on F10.

This I think is more likely, based upon booster approach so far. Merely re-entry with the ship and steering safely over Mexico to the Gulf is a major achievement, then 'virtual tower catch' slightly offshore at Boca Chica would set Flight 11 up for a catch... IMHO, and vote! Nice poll though 

I would say that after the next successful Starship mission, SpaceX might want to have a successful test with Starship splashing down in the Pacific after a less than 5 orbits, possibly simulating a tower catch. After that is successful, then a test landing a few km off-shore from the launch site. Only then would a catch attempt be announced - although that might not happen depending on conditions on the ground and in the ship.

[Skye]

I dunno, the plan so far has been water land once [flight 4, what flight 7 & 8 were planned to be], then catch next flight.

[duh]

Ever the optimist, I voted for flight 10. It cannot be flight 9, because they must reach orbit before they can attempt a catch (Ship must orbit to get back to a place where it can deorbit to reach Starbase). But in keeping with their self-imposed rules, they cannot try an orbital flight until they first demonstrate Raptor relight on a free-return (i.e. "suborbital") flight. So, flight 9 must succeed as a suborbital flight that convincingly demonstrates raptor relight in zero-g after a 30-minute coast phase, and then flight 10 can go orbital and try a return to Starbase after seven(?) orbits.

Just to not confine ourselves into a box that really does not exist, what law of physics (to paraphrase someone) prevents starship from doing a 180 degree flip part way thru its burn and point its way back towards the launch site so as to land a few miles off shore from the launch site or, unlikely, actually attempt a catch. Re-entry conditions would be rather benign in terms of heat effects on the tiles and there is still the question of how much the lower velocity on re-entry affects the aerodynamics throughtout the flight regime. Not suggesting it -- just not taking it off the table as a possibility.

[DanClemmensen]

Ever the optimist, I voted for flight 10. It cannot be flight 9, because they must reach orbit before they can attempt a catch (Ship must orbit to get back to a place where it can deorbit to reach Starbase). But in keeping with their self-imposed rules, they cannot try an orbital flight until they first demonstrate Raptor relight on a free-return (i.e. "suborbital") flight. So, flight 9 must succeed as a suborbital flight that convincingly demonstrates raptor relight in zero-g after a 30-minute coast phase, and then flight 10 can go orbital and try a return to Starbase after seven(?) orbits.

Just to not confine ourselves into a box that really does not exist, what law of physics (to paraphrase someone) prevents starship from doing a 180 degree flip part way thru its burn and point its way back towards the launch site so as to land a few miles off shore from the launch site or, unlikely, actually attempt a catch. Re-entry conditions would be rather benign in terms of heat effects on the tiles and there is still the question of how much the lower velocity on re-entry affects the aerodynamics throughtout the flight regime. Not suggesting it -- just not taking it off the table as a possibility.

Nothing, except it's a major waste of a test. Other tests that are seriously suboptimal would be a launch of a Ship from the ground, no booster, or launch on a booster pretty much straight up instead of eastward. I estimate that reaching orbit is a more important goal than ship catch, and SpaceX appears to be building on each flight by flying the same mission as the prior flight but with some added goals. relight after a long coast is the next logical milestone. Full orbit is the next goal after that, and catch follows orbit. Of course TPS tests on every EDL, which is almost but not quite a separate test sequence.

[sdsds]

Best case scenario:
- Flight 10 achieves a multi-rev orbit, conducts a successful de-orbit burn and mid-ocean touch-down.
- Flight 11 is the same as flight 10 but adds some amount of aero-steering during descent.
- Flight 12 steers itself around population centers during descent for a catch at Boca Chica.

That said my prediction is that Flight 14 is the first Ship that gets anywhere near a catch tower.