Will Rocket Lab launch Neutron before the end of 2025?

[jongoff]

In the Rocket Lab Neutron rocket - Discussion thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53194.msg2654134#msg2654134) M.E.T. brought up that Rocket Lab is still claiming a 2025 launch date for Neutron. Do you believe that's likely? When do you think is the most likely timing for Neutron's first flight? I figured a poll was in order.

To qualify as a first flight, I'm assuming here that it will be an orbital launch attempt with a second stage and at least a dummy payload of some sort. And the launch attempt counts as soon as the vehicle clears the tower on its first attempted orbital launch.

Does that work for people?

I have the poll set to run for two weeks.

If you have a rationale to go with your opinion, please feel free to share with others.

~Jon

[jongoff]

I decided to stick my neck out a tad and vote for Q4 of 2025. I know that's an ambitious schedule, though I think it's not quite a "Green-Lights-to-Malibu" schedule as SpaceX would call it (but probably close to a Green-Lights schedule).

They've made solid progress on their engines and structures in 2024, as well as on their launch site. This also isn't their first time developing and fielding a vehicle, and IIRC they moved pretty quickly with fielding Electron once they had the money to go after it for real (though this development is obviously more difficult). I think there's a decent chance I could be wrong, but I think they'll try to move heaven and earth to get it flying in 2025, and they do have a talented team with dozens of flights under their belt, working on their second vehicle.

And by way of transparency, while I'm a fan of Rocket Lab, I do not currently own any Rocket Lab shares, so I'm not financially biased toward the answer being one way or another.

~Jon

[joek]

Voted more conservative: Jan-Mar 2026. Think that is very achievable. What worries me is what comes after. E.g., is Neutron chasing a diminishing market for launch services? May be a serious uphill climb given potential competition.

[Craigles]

It will depend on some milestones like engine test combustion stability, understanding the green stripes in the engine test video exhaust, construction for Wallops Island, Virginia commodities such as CH₄, carbon fiber winding in the Middle River, Maryland facility, manufacturing the hippo head fairing somewhere, trans global logistics for parts made in New Zealand or California, constructing the stuff listed in their 2022 Environmental Assessment at Wallops, and hiring problem solvers for unexpected challenges. Their published job openings may enlighten us about what challenges pop up. RKLB does what they say they will do, and their press releases will be realistic.

I voted for December of this year.

[Yggdrasill]

Based on the scope of the remaining work, I think second half of 2026. Would love to see a launch in 2025, though.

[deltaV]

https://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-signs-first-neutron-launch-customer/ says:

The company plans gradually scale up launches of Neutron, with a single test launch in 2025 followed by three in 2026, five in 2027

If they were planning to launch early in 2025 they'd probably be planning more than one launch, so they're probably planning late 2025. I therefore applied a Berger's law correction and voted Q1 2026.

[jongoff]

Voted more conservative: Jan-Mar 2026. Think that is very achievable. What worries me is what comes after. E.g., is Neutron chasing a diminishing market for launch services? May be a serious uphill climb given potential competition.

I think if Neutron is successful technically that they'll be in a good position for attracting launch customers. They obviously won't get Starlink, but for a lot of non-Starlink customers, Neutron may actually be a better deal than SpaceX. Yes, SpaceX can lower their prices, but customers like having options, and sometimes are willing to pay a slight premium for keeping options viable. Especially if RocketLab isn't directly competing with those customers in most markets.

~Jon

[deltaV]

What worries me is what comes after.

I think if Neutron is successful technically that they'll be in a good position for attracting launch customers.

The market demand for Neutron is an interesting question for another thread but is off topic here.

Edit: I'll reply in the Neutron vs others thread: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55413.0 .

[wwloon32]

considering Falcon and New Glenn development, I would pick Q3 as their ideal launch date.

Sir Peter Beck background will determine how fast the progress would be, and IMO, it would be faster than New Glenn and others, on par with Falcon. When Falcon 1 first developed, it had to build from scratch, and would taken them much longer than anticipated, a singular pipe problem would cost them days to fix and recheck everything. But then they would quickly gained experience and apply it faster in Falcon 9, and preparing it faster.

However, obtaining regulatory approval was much time consuming back then. This time it is a different story, as Rocket Lab has already a working and stable relationship with regulatory, the learning curve would be shorter.

I think Neutron is just 2-3 months from obtaining Regulatory Approval for Launch, and it would be another 4-6 months from Launching.

[DeimosDream]

Q4-2025.

As was recently pointed in the discussion thread, the 2019 Wallops PEIS specifically called out RP-1/LOX as the singular liquid fuel authorized for large static fire tests implying that Rocket Lab's stalled progression toward static fire is largely regulatory while the checkboxes get checked to amend that detail.

The launch pad is nearly done, tanks testing is completed, and engines have been hot fired. At this point Rocket Lab appears to have slowed down to use their extra time for extra testing on the flight stages. Once they get the green light to go for static fire/launch I expect Neutron will be well polished to move fast. Probably not Q3 fast, but 2025 still feels good.

[wannamoonbase]

Q4-2025.

As was recently pointed in the discussion thread, the 2019 Wallops PEIS specifically called out RP-1/LOX as the singular liquid fuel authorized for large static fire tests implying that Rocket Lab's stalled progression toward static fire is largely regulatory while the checkboxes get checked to amend that detail.

The launch pad is nearly done, tanks testing is completed, and engines have been hot fired. At this point Rocket Lab appears to have slowed down to use their extra time for extra testing on the flight stages. Once they get the green light to go for static fire/launch I expect Neutron will be well polished to move fast. Probably not Q3 fast, but 2025 still feels good.

Fast by rocket standards perhaps.

Q4 2025 would be amazing, but keep in mind this is not a small vehicle, the engine is new and they have a lot to integrate and test.

Rocket Lab is fierce and fun to watch, the march to flight is going to be exciting.

[XRZ.YZ]

I would say more realistically 2028.

Engine began testing on summer of 2024.
2 Year of testing is a minimum for delivering flight engine to final integration.
That's 2026 summer.
And a few month of integration and E2E testing.
So deliver to launch pad by year end 2026.
And then likely one year of testing on pad, various dress rehearsals etc.
So will be lucky to hit year end 2027.

[XRZ.YZ]

So everything except last two options have officially been wrong now.

[sstli2]

Going from having the rocket on the pad by the end of this year to 2028 would be borderline fraudulent on behalf of Peter Beck. He knows that, so I'm inclined to take him at his word when he says they will try to get the rocket to LC3 in Q1. A reasonable slip from that wording would be the rocket to the pad in Q2 or Q3, and launch no later than Q4.

But to add a whole year on top of that? Seems unduly pessimistic.