POLL: When will Falcon launches peak?

[deltaV]

I think 2026 is the year we'll start seeing declining numbers of F9.... that might be an interesting poll, which year do the numbers decline?

This poll is basically that idea, but I framed it as what calendar year will have the most launches.

All Falcon family launch vehicles count, including Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy.

There's a slight chance of more than 1 winner if the largest number of launches occurs multiple years.

We won't be able to declare a definitive winner of this poll until the Falcon program ends or a best-so-far year occurs in 2060 or later, but we can probably declare a tentative winner within a few years of when the peak occurs. Since we're just betting for honor this is sufficient.

Launch year for a launch is determined by the local time zone at the launch site.

[deltaV]

For what it's worth Elon thinks 2024 won't win:

https://twitter.com/turkeybeaver/status/1873984360107635173

So much to celebrate in 2024, but that post can wait till the morning 😜.

For now… heck yeah!!!!! Go Falcon team!!! Go @SpaceX
!!! 134 launches and 133 successful missions!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1868890203123073078

Probably >180 Falcon launches in 2025

[DanClemmensen]

I voted 2026. The peak is the month prior to the month F9 quits launching Starlink, which is the month Starship reaches high cadence for Starlink launches. Depending on which month of the year that is, that year or the prior year will be the peak F9 year. So basically, I think the transition will be between about June of 2026 and March of 2027.

[freddo411]

I voted 2026. The peak is the month prior to the month F9 quits launching Starlink, which is the month Starship reaches high cadence for Starlink launches. Depending on which month of the year that is, that year or the prior year will be the peak F9 year. So basically, I think the transition will be between about June of 2026 and March of 2027.

We might be able to get some insight into the peak of Falcon 9 if we knew when manufacturing of "mini" starlink sats ends (or has ended).    Knowing SX, they are probably already prepared to cease production of "minis" and go even faster on full size sats .. but they won't do that until Starship is ready to deploy sats.

I doubt there are very many satellites in the pipeline at any given time.   Once they make the cut over decision, I expect very roughly 3 months before F9 stops flying sats.

[RedLineTrain]

I voted 2026. The peak is the month prior to the month F9 quits launching Starlink, which is the month Starship reaches high cadence for Starlink launches. Depending on which month of the year that is, that year or the prior year will be the peak F9 year. So basically, I think the transition will be between about June of 2026 and March of 2027.

We might be able to get some insight into the peak of Falcon 9 if we knew when manufacturing of "mini" starlink sats ends (or has ended).    Knowing SX, they are probably already prepared to cease production of "minis" and go even faster on full size sats .. but they won't do that until Starship is ready to deploy sats.

I doubt there are very many satellites in the pipeline at any given time.   Once they make the cut over decision, I expect very roughly 3 months before F9 stops flying sats.

The two manufacturing lines will overlap a couple of years, if only because it will be a while before Starship can address the higher inclinations.

[DanClemmensen]

I voted 2026. The peak is the month prior to the month F9 quits launching Starlink, which is the month Starship reaches high cadence for Starlink launches. Depending on which month of the year that is, that year or the prior year will be the peak F9 year. So basically, I think the transition will be between about June of 2026 and March of 2027.

We might be able to get some insight into the peak of Falcon 9 if we knew when manufacturing of "mini" starlink sats ends (or has ended).    Knowing SX, they are probably already prepared to cease production of "minis" and go even faster on full size sats .. but they won't do that until Starship is ready to deploy sats.

I doubt there are very many satellites in the pipeline at any given time.   Once they make the cut over decision, I expect very roughly 3 months before F9 stops flying sats.

The two manufacturing lines will overlap a couple of years, if only because it will be a while before Starship can address the higher inclinations.

Maybe an overlap, and maybe that long, but maybe not. There are a whole lot of variables to consider. The highest inclinations are needed only for service above 53 degrees, and there are not a lot of terminals up there, so the existing satellites may suffice for quite a while, maybe even until they begin to age out. But I probably should have specified "Starship at high cadence from the Cape". Thanks for pointing this out.

[AmigaClone]

I voted 2026. The peak is the month prior to the month F9 quits launching Starlink, which is the month Starship reaches high cadence for Starlink launches. Depending on which month of the year that is, that year or the prior year will be the peak F9 year. So basically, I think the transition will be between about June of 2026 and March of 2027.

We might be able to get some insight into the peak of Falcon 9 if we knew when manufacturing of "mini" starlink sats ends (or has ended).    Knowing SX, they are probably already prepared to cease production of "minis" and go even faster on full size sats .. but they won't do that until Starship is ready to deploy sats.

I doubt there are very many satellites in the pipeline at any given time.   Once they make the cut over decision, I expect very roughly 3 months before F9 stops flying sats.

The two manufacturing lines will overlap a couple of years, if only because it will be a while before Starship can address the higher inclinations.

Maybe an overlap, and maybe that long, but maybe not. There are a whole lot of variables to consider. The highest inclinations are needed only for service above 53 degrees, and there are not a lot of terminals up there, so the existing satellites may suffice for quite a while, maybe even until they begin to age out. But I probably should have specified "Starship at high cadence from the Cape". Thanks for pointing this out.

I voted for 2027, although I can easily see 2026 as being the peak launches for F9. How fast the cadence of the F9 goes down would depend on how easy customers would be willing to swap their launch from a F9 to a Starship.

[DanClemmensen]

I voted 2026. The peak is the month prior to the month F9 quits launching Starlink, which is the month Starship reaches high cadence for Starlink launches. Depending on which month of the year that is, that year or the prior year will be the peak F9 year. So basically, I think the transition will be between about June of 2026 and March of 2027.

We might be able to get some insight into the peak of Falcon 9 if we knew when manufacturing of "mini" starlink sats ends (or has ended).    Knowing SX, they are probably already prepared to cease production of "minis" and go even faster on full size sats .. but they won't do that until Starship is ready to deploy sats.

I doubt there are very many satellites in the pipeline at any given time.   Once they make the cut over decision, I expect very roughly 3 months before F9 stops flying sats.

The two manufacturing lines will overlap a couple of years, if only because it will be a while before Starship can address the higher inclinations.

Maybe an overlap, and maybe that long, but maybe not. There are a whole lot of variables to consider. The highest inclinations are needed only for service above 53 degrees, and there are not a lot of terminals up there, so the existing satellites may suffice for quite a while, maybe even until they begin to age out. But I probably should have specified "Starship at high cadence from the Cape". Thanks for pointing this out.

I voted for 2027, although I can easily see 2026 as being the peak launches for F9. How fast the cadence of the F9 goes down would depend on how easy customers would be willing to swap their launch from a F9 to a Starship.

About 2/3 of F9 flights are Starlink. I doubt the peak will be driven by non-Starlink. The Starlink cutover will be abrupt, because it is entirely within SpaceX' control.

For non-Starlink, SpaceX can choose from a menu of options to induce customers to move. The simplest is to simply quit offering F9 launches shortly after beginning to offer Starship launches.

[deltaV]

My probability estimates: 2024 2%, 2025 39%, 2026 41%, 2027 9%, 2028+ 9%. I voted 2026 since it has the highest probability.

[Paul451]

Anything after 2030 suggests a failure of Starship development. Anything after 2040 suggests a failure (and acquisition) of SpaceX.

[Lar]

Anything after 2030 suggests a failure of Starship development. Anything after 2040 suggests a failure (and acquisition) of SpaceX.

Concur.

I voted 2026 before reading the thread, and happily, I find that the reasoning others shared in the thread confirms my thinking on why.