2025 Starship Launches Poll

[jongoff]

Continuing the poll from 2024 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60244.0) since nobody else has posted a new one yet. I took some of the advice of the last few posters for use in this year's poll.

I'd say now that they've launched a few times, that it only counts if it clears the tower intact (i.e. something that was nominal for at least a few seconds), and was intended to reach orbit or near orbital velocity. As with the previous poll, this is just counting the number of launches. If people want to do different polls on the number of successful launches, the number that actually reach orbit, etc. We could do that too.

Does that work for everyone?

Also, please provide your logic after your vote, if you're willing to share.

~Jon

[jongoff]

Dang, I hit send too early, and didn't specify an end-date for the poll or other things like that. It doesn't look like Edit Poll can fix that. Moderators: is there any way for you to fix that after a poll is started? Or is there any way to cancel a poll and do it again with the right settings?

~Jon

[Tywin]

I voted for 1-5 orbital launch but really orbital and sending cargo to LEO...

[jongoff]

I voted for 11-15. I think that's pretty ambitious, but doable, even without getting to stage reuse yet this coming year.

[Eric Hedman]

I voted 6-10  because I think tweaks to the design between flights will limit it to this range.

[DanClemmensen]

11-15.  This is aggressive, but I just don't think they can do any more than 15. once a month starting January, but reaching twice a month in December.  The drivers are all the variants they need to test. They have the build capacity. Stage 0 becomes the bottleneck at least until pad B is ready.

[gongora]

Dang, I hit send too early, and didn't specify an end-date for the poll or other things like that. It doesn't look like Edit Poll can fix that. Moderators: is there any way for you to fix that after a poll is started? Or is there any way to cancel a poll and do it again with the right settings?

~Jon

It let me set a time limit, I stuck 30 days in there.  DM me if you want something different.

[jongoff]

Dang, I hit send too early, and didn't specify an end-date for the poll or other things like that. It doesn't look like Edit Poll can fix that. Moderators: is there any way for you to fix that after a poll is started? Or is there any way to cancel a poll and do it again with the right settings?

~Jon

It let me set a time limit, I stuck 30 days in there.  DM me if you want something different.

Perfect, that works for me. Thanks!

[lightleviathan]

I said 6-10, I think there will be about 2 months between flights some time in H2 due to OLP-2 in Boca needing to be readied combined with Block 2 Booster things.

[Lar]

I went 11-15 ... I think the 25 figure mooted in some circles is optimistic but I expect cadence to pick up, and by the end of the year, the majority of flights are revenue of some sort, so 10 or less seems too low.

[DistantTemple]

11-15
That's starting off once a month, then increasing towards the end of the year, which would head towards 18, however one incident requiring investigation, or more significant redesign could easily loose three launches. A failed booster catch could take the current tower out of use.
The top priority for the year IMO is not cadence, but milestones, like orbit, catching or landing Starship, deploying Starlink and rendezvous for fuel transfer in orbit. This means continuing developments, not mass production. Also we don't know if the new pad will need much refurbishment between launches.

[Yggdrasill]

I think 10. One launch in january, then a 2-3 month interlude before an orbital flight 8 with a Starship recovery attempt.  Then more or less once a month for the remainder of the year.

[jongoff]

Well, they can definitely bounce back from this enough to make the 11-15 I guessed for the year, but I feel better now about not guessing a larger number. I think the people who voted 6-10 are probably feeling more secure in their guess.

~Jon

[Tywin]

5 launches this year, the answer.

Not orbit or cargo, this year.