When will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 7?

[jongoff]

Ok, after an impressively fast turnaround between Flights 5 and 6, and a pretty successful Flight 6 mission that included a successful microgravity relight, it's time for the Flight 7 poll. This time I didn't go as granular in the timing, because as per previous SpaceX comments, the next flight is supposed to be a Starship V2, so there may be more time before its flight than the time between flights 5 and 6 (but if you think I'm wrong, I gave you options!).

I'm going to leave this open for seven days (closing next week Tuesday evening). I know that's annoying for some people, but I like using polls to force people to give their uncorrelated guesses. I think you get less groupthink that way.

As per other polls, the launch counts if it lifts off, regardless of it's successful (though if someone wants to do a poll on what they think SpaceX will achieve with Flight 7, feel free to link to it in the comments).

And once you've voted, feel free to leave your thoughts on how you voted in the comments section. Last time the wisdom of crowds was pretty solid, though the time before it was awful. Let's see how we all do this time around.

~Jon

[jongoff]

I voted March 2025. They're claiming early 2025 for the next flight, but it's a new version of Starship, going for an orbital flight, etc. So I was trying to strike the balance between it being a fast turnaround, and them running into issues. I don't know if the FAA is going to do any sort of mishap investigation since they had to abort the tower catch (my guess is no). And while they'll likely need a new license, I think with the Trump admin coming in, the FAA will be under a lot of pressure to move fast. So I went with March.

~Jon

[sdsds]

Launch prediction: Dec 8, 2024
Interquartile range: Nov 29, 2024 to Dec 26, 2024

These are based solely on (perhaps imagined) trends in the dates of the prior four launches. Clearly though I'm going with "Before the end of 2024."

[AmigaClone]

If Flight 7 is a "Repeat Flight 5 and 6 with Starship V2" then I can see January 2025 at the earliest. If SpaceX will be attempting to go orbital, then I would say March is the likely NET date.

[DanClemmensen]

I went for January. I hope SpaceX has been working with FAA and has applied for license for an orbital flight that plops Ship into the Indian Ocean 24.5 hours after launch

[Yggdrasill]

I'm feeling optimistic, so I'll go with late February, for a fully orbital flight. I think there will be some regulatory hurdles and some weeks of testing and tweaking of the first Block 2 Starship.

[Lampyridae]

I think they'll push hard for end-2024, but I also think that V2's differences mean that testing will take a bit longer. Also, the regulatory issues which can be unpredictable for us fans. Early Jan 2025, I think.

My payload prediction: Japanese New Year's rice cakes (mochi).

[daedalus1]

January,  I doubt if 25 flights in 2025 will begin any later.

[Comga]

Wow! 
Aren’t we a bunch of optimists?
Some days the Kool-Aid is the best drink in the house.

[AmigaClone]

Wow! 
Aren’t we a bunch of optimists?
Some days the Kool-Aid is the best drink in the house.

I suspect some are compensating for missing their guess on launch 6. Nearly two-thirds of those who gave a time estimate for launch 6 guessed NET December 2024.

[deltaV]

The Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years holidays will delay them a few weeks so they probably won't pull off a 1-month turnaround this time. I voted January.

[AstroScott]

February seems like a good bet if they really want to try and nail down almost everything on the 7th flight. They tend to prefer moving at a faster speed than normal. But, I think some of the results from Flight 6 lend towards them taking a little longer under the hood this time around.

[jongoff]

If Flight 7 is a "Repeat Flight 5 and 6 with Starship V2" then I can see January 2025 at the earliest. If SpaceX will be attempting to go orbital, then I would say March is the likely NET date.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too, which is why I voted March. I just don't see the point in repeating the Flight 5 and 6 without going fully orbital, now that they've demonstrated the in-space relight. Why not actually get some prototype Starlink satellites deployed this next time around, and start moving reuse into the "post payload delivery experimentation" like they did so well with Falcon 9.

~Jon

[jongoff]

Wow! 
Aren’t we a bunch of optimists?
Some days the Kool-Aid is the best drink in the house.

I know, right? 92% of voters think February or earlier... which seems optimistic for a major block upgrade, and a launch license revision. I hope I'm being a wet blanket with my March vote though. I'd love to see them actually come withing striking distance of their 25 flights in 2025 goal.

~Jon

[Navier–Stokes]

I voted for February 2025 as a NET. The flight could easily slip to March or April 2025 depending on the test objectives. I suspect that SpaceX is working (optimistically) towards a January 2025 target.

[Callmeishmael]

I voted for December, which is probably too optimistic.  They really need to get the technology proved and ready, so I think that they will be pushing to launch as quickly as possible.

[Metalskin]

Wow! 
Aren’t we a bunch of optimists?
Some days the Kool-Aid is the best drink in the house.

I know, right? 92% of voters think February or earlier... which seems optimistic for a major block upgrade, and a launch license revision. I hope I'm being a wet blanket with my March vote though. I'd love to see them actually come withing striking distance of their 25 flights in 2025 goal.

~Jon

I was debating between Feb and March but then thought how far out I was this time so went with Feb. Happy to be proven wrong!

[StraumliBlight]

They're aiming for December 17th but I voted for early Jan.

[gin455res]

They're aiming for December 17th but I voted for early Jan.

Is this a radio uplink licence for ift-7 for 6 months from the 17th dec?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

The Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years holidays will delay them a few weeks

SpaceXers get holidays?!

I agree that a bigger gap to flight 7 is inevitable given the time of year, Starship v2 and revised launch licence needed.

I think SpaceX will be ready some time in February. The question in my mind is whether the licence will be too. I’m going to be optimistic and say yes.

[catdlr]

The launch date is already determined; no need for a  prediction thread: (yeah, I know, party pooper)

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61266.msg2644262#msg2644262

[sdsds]

Launch prediction: Dec 8, 2024
[...]

Ooh, I want to change my vote to NET Jan 11, 2025.

[daedalus1]

I was correct.

[Yggdrasill]

I was correct.

You don't know that. NET January could end up being February or March. All we know is that the 9 people who voted 2024 are wrong.

[jongoff]

I was correct.

You don't know that. NET January could end up being February or March. All we know is that the 9 people who voted 2024 are wrong.

Exactly.

~Jon

[daedalus1]

I was correct.

You don't know that. NET January could end up being February or March. All we know is that the 9 people who voted 2024 are wrong.

Exactly.

~Jon

Ok. I should have said that my comment associated with my vote was correct.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

So the most popular choice - January - was correct.

Shame about Starship, but they'll learn from it and bounce back. Also on track for booster reuse this year.