Starship Flight Test 4 Predictions

[dglow]

Let’s predict the outcome of Starship IFT-4.
This is a repeat of the IFT-3 and IFT-2 polls.

Instructions
• You have 19 votes.
• Choose as many or as few options as you like.
• If you think IFT-4 will be a perfect success, check every box.

Remember: your votes indicate successful outcomes.
• For instance, if you think Super Heavy will perform well but won’t initiate its landing burn, check 1 through 7 but not 8 or 9.
• Similarly, if you predict Starship will begin atmospheric reentry but won’t survive the process, check 13 but neither 14 nor 15.

Enjoy!

[dglow]

Reminder: if you cast a single vote in the middle of the list, you’re doing it wrong.

Select every option you think will succeed. If reaching #10 means 1-9 must also occur, check all 10 boxes.

Thanks.


TL;DR: read the instructions.

[effi]

1-13. I'm optimistic for the Booster and think everything will go as planned.
For the Ship I think it will go far into reentry, but I'm skeptical about a full reentry. But I hope I'm wrong and everything goes as planned.

[dglow]

Wow

All the way down to the water. Words cannot…

Congrats to the five who chose controlled Starship touchdown!

[Metalskin]

I am so glad that I was proven to be pessimistic. That was a wild ride to watch, still blown away that they had control all the way to the water, despite the flap appearing to get burned through close side to the camera.

[DanClemmensen]

Wow

All the way down to the water. Words cannot…

Congrats to the five who chose controlled Starship touchdown!

I selected all 19, but this was really just a wish, not a true prediction. I am very happy that I was correct, but it's really just an accident.

[Perchlorate]

Cross posting....

I (sheepishly) checked all 19, pressed the button, then wallowed in a stoichiometric mix of naivete and guilt about my naivete.

Not feeling all proud and vindicated...but very happy with the outcome.

[theinternetftw]

Just to allow folks to skip a bit of math / weighting in their heads, here's the graphs and percentages scaled as one would expect (each checkbox weighted against all voters rather than all options).

[Yggdrasill]

I selected all 19. I thought it was the most likely outcome, but not by a huge margin. I figured something like a 30% chance of successfully completing every milestone.