Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2024 (Read 17910 times)

Lar · « **on:** 12/21/2023 09:15 pm »

Although I used to do quite lengthy intros including the manifest for the year, it's becoming increasingly pointless...
See here for the rules: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55469.msg2325443#msg2325443

Groups of 5 like last year. (HERE https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58338.0 )

Companion landing poll here: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60094.0

Lar · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/21/2023 09:22 pm »

I'll go first, I think they're going to get over 120 next year but I don't see 150 ... so I guessed 121-125

Craigles · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/21/2023 10:57 pm »

I'm guessing 135. I'm considering:
- SpaceX's own est.
- Starship launches -- five, I guess
- Additional launch pads -- now, I digress
- Will we see new ASDSs -- this, we discuss ... see "SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Updates and Discussion Thread 3", https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39766.0

sdsds · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/22/2023 12:06 am »

Pessimistic Grinch Mode has me voting 116-120, taking into account range congestion and maybe even the need for a brief stand-down for anomaly investigations, etc.

Eer · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/22/2023 01:39 am »

Can't double every year. But a 30% growth seems possible, given the maturity they seem to have created in their operations crews. I went with 131-135. I'm never right.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/22/2023 01:48 am »

I'm waiting until January 19th to vote lol.

I'm surprised it only goes to 150, tho. There's a non-zero chance they get above 150. Not likely (especially not without more droneships, etc), but possible.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/22/2023 02:27 am »

I voted 131-135, but I think this is optimistic. A resource like launch slots has a nasty characteristic: as it begins to saturate, any slip becomes unrecoverable. This had no effect in 2022, when there was enough slack that a slip did not affect the next launch. But in 2023, some slips began to propagate, especially here at the end. I'm confident SpaceX will be unconstrained by boosters, stage 2, or payload demand (Starlink), but There are not enough launch slots. They lose slots to weather, holiday keep-outs, and NASA's perverse insistence on prohibiting launch on any pad in the 6(?) days prior to a "critical" NASA FH launch, in addition to the usual things like scrubs.

joek · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/22/2023 02:49 am »

Maybe a bit optimistic, 131-135. 30% year-over-year (give or take). Think Vandenberg will be key in achieving that number.

tyrred · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/22/2023 03:04 am »

123

Its as easy as

And somebody's gotta do it

I'm having nostalgic thoughts of droneship landing bingos from the days of yore

Lar · « **Reply #9 on:** 12/22/2023 10:44 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 12/22/2023 01:48 am

I'm waiting until January 19th to vote lol.

I'm surprised it only goes to 150, tho. There's a non-zero chance they get above 150. Not likely (especially not without more droneships, etc), but possible.

I can add more, I don't think anyone voted zero yet.... I'll raise it to 180, that should do yeah?

Edit: 200. if anyone wants to guess more than 200 I wanna hear about it!!!!

Tywin · « **Reply #10 on:** 12/30/2023 05:05 am »

My vote 126-130

oldAtlas_Eguy · « **Reply #11 on:** 01/01/2024 03:35 pm »

Every time I calculated the number of launches with a new method I kept coming up with same value of 138. So vote was 136-140,

shark0302 · « **Reply #12 on:** 01/01/2024 10:09 pm »

132 single stick f9 and 5 f9h
Based on the current list of known single stick f9, I have 132 flights. This assumes no new booster past 1083 getting added to the fleet. This also assumes spacex is taking every current booster to 20 lunches. If they certified the single stick f9 to 25 reuses, they can hit a 190 with nothing but the existing cores.

So with that, I'm going for 150 to 155 as i expect some 24 hour turnarounds at the cape.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #13 on:** 01/01/2024 10:17 pm »

Note that 65% of voters under-estimated the number last year (and in 2022, 98% (!) under-estimated the true number of orbital launches). (Although it was right on the cusp... if they had got one fewer launches, we would've been right on.)

Some folks accuse NSF for being a bastion of rabid SpaceX fans, but we still tend to underestimate orbital launches (although we nearly were right on in 2020 and overestimated in 2021... so maybe overall we're roughly tuned in correctly).

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #14 on:** 01/02/2024 12:19 am »

Selected the 136 to 140 poll option. While SpaceX can be capable of mounting about 155 launches for 2024 in my estimation. Don't expected the weather will cooperated.

My overly optimized number of 155 is 150 F9/FH launches and 5 Starship/Super Heavy launches.

AmigaClone · « **Reply #15 on:** 01/02/2024 04:49 am »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/01/2024 10:17 pm

Note that 65% of voters under-estimated the number last year (and in 2022, 98% (!) under-estimated the true number of orbital launches). (Although it was right on the cusp... if they had got one fewer launches, we would've been right on.)

Some folks accuse NSF for being a bastion of rabid SpaceX fans, but we still tend to underestimate orbital launches (although we nearly were right on in 2020 and overestimated in 2021... so maybe overall we're roughly tuned in correctly).

We have underestimated F9/FH launches, but have been to optimistic with Starship in recent years. Granted, in most cases, the expectation was that Starship would be replacing F9 Starlink launches by now...

POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55469.0

POLL: Successful landings of F9/FH first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2022?
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55470.0

POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2023
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58338.0

How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44042.0

Robotbeat · « **Reply #16 on:** 01/02/2024 05:03 am »

Yup. Fits in with the usual human tendency to overestimate near term progress but underestimate long term progress.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #17 on:** 01/02/2024 02:06 pm »

Quote from: Zed_Noir on 01/02/2024 12:19 am

Selected the 136 to 140 poll option. While SpaceX can be capable of mounting about 155 launches for 2024 in my estimation. Don't expected the weather will cooperated.

My overly optimized number of 155 is 150 F9/FH launches and 5 Starship/Super Heavy launches.

How does this compare with how you did in 2022 and 2023?

spacenut · « **Reply #18 on:** 01/02/2024 02:13 pm »

They need another drone ship to increase launch rate at the cape. That is going to be the biggest holdup. Weather second.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #19 on:** 01/02/2024 03:26 pm »

They’re doing an increasing number of RTLS launches. That addresses both the droneship constraint and much of the weather constraint.

Poll

How many SpaceX orbital flight attempts do you anticipate in 2024?

Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2024 (Read 17910 times)