Total Members Voted: 43
Voting closed: 10/21/2023 10:11 pm
These rules are copied from the first post of https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59568.0 .== Rules and Definitions ==The specific launch vehicles listed after "e.g." in most of the poll options are just FYI and aren't part of the rules.Launch vehicle design organization: a launch only counts for the single organization that is most responsible for the overall design of the rocket, e.g. Vulcan launches count for ULA but NOT for Blue Origin or Aerojet Rocketdyne and SLS launches count for “US Government” but NOT for Northrop Grumman. The customer is irrelevant, e.g. a Vulcan launch carrying a NASA payload counts for ULA but NOT for “US Government”. A launch vehicle that is designed by Firefly and Northrop Grumman counts for the combined "Firefly & Northrop Grumman" option but NOT for Firefly or NG individually. For example if you think that Antares 300 (a Firefly & NG vehicle) will launch 10+ times, Pegasus (a NG vehicle) will launch 10+ times, and Firefly Alpha (a Firefly vehicle) will launch less than 10 times you should vote for "Firefly & Northrop Grumman" and "Northrop Grumman" but NOT for "Firefly".Successful orbital launch: a launch where a launch vehicle stage and/or payload massing at least 1 gram achieves an altitude of at least 100 km and a semi-major axis at least the (equatorial) radius of the Earth at one instant of time. Success at reuse and at customer objectives are irrelevant to this definition. For example, an abort-once-around trajectory probably barely meets this definition.US launch pads: this includes launches from pads in any land that is more controlled by the US government than by any other country. This includes the 50 states, US territories, and US overseas military bases. Launches from air or water instead of launch pads will count if the US is the primary regulator of the launch.5 year period 2025-2029 inclusive: launches are counted if liftoff occurs in the 5 year period between Jan 1 2025 and Dec 31 2029 inclusive Eastern time zone.
Is that 10 per year or 10 total over 2025-2029? I read it both ways so wasn't sure.
Quote from: ulm_atms on 09/21/2023 10:45 pmIs that 10 per year or 10 total over 2025-2029? I read it both ways so wasn't sure.10 total. It's a pretty low bar, an average of 2 launches per year.
I voted for very few because I think SpaceX will handle all except a few special cases.SpaceXFirefly&NG: Already contracted for CRS-2 to ISS.Rocketlab: electron will keep flying for at least 10 launches after 2024ULA and friends: 18 Atlas Vs remain. six of them are for Starliners in 2025-2029, and at least four of the Kuipers will fly after 2024And that's all. zero others.Vulcan might fly a few. It's uneconomic but it's covered under ULA.New Glenn might fly. it is also uneconomic but it's covered by Jeff Bezos.
Firefly&NG: Already contracted for CRS-2 to ISS.