Author Topic: Predictions 2024  (Read 9792 times)

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Predictions 2024
« on: 09/04/2023 01:41 am »
here we can make predictions for what will happen in spaceflight for 2024
actually its septemeber so maybe we could make predictions for next year but mods should lock it until november or december this year
« Last Edit: 09/04/2023 01:45 am by Kspbutitscursed »
I attempt to fly in ksp
WEN OFT-3                 #Wen Booster 11/12 engines installation

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #1 on: 09/04/2023 03:48 pm »
Predictions for spaceflight 2024

Artemis II does not launch

Starship reaches orbit at least twice

Rocket Lab reaches orbit at least 4 times

Virgin Galactic makes sub-orbit twice with paying passengers

More methane found on Mars

More water found at some body in the solar system

Nitrogen detected in an exoplanet atmosphere

More evidence for Proxima Centauri c

Voyager 2 stops communicating

Artificial intelligence will be more prominent, even in spaceflight
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #2 on: 09/04/2023 11:25 pm »
Starship launches 5 times all with starlink sats all reach orbit sucessfully
I attempt to fly in ksp
WEN OFT-3                 #Wen Booster 11/12 engines installation

Online ZachS09

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #3 on: 09/05/2023 05:45 pm »
My predictions for 2024:

- ULA launches five Atlas Vs and the last Delta IV Heavy. Two Atlas Vs are dedicated to Project Kuiper while the USSF-51, ViaSat 3 EMEA and Starliner CFT missions are launched too.

- SpaceX launches 140 Falcon rockets (F9 and FH) while Starship flies four times. Two booster catch attempts are made, both of which succeed. Two of the four Starship missions launch Starlink v2 sats.

- Artemis 2 launches on time.

- Vega-C returns to flight in Q4 2024.

- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard.

- Virgin Galactic does at least four SpaceShipTwo flights; one of them is dedicated to science experiments similar to Galactic 01.

- Chang'e 6 launches to the lunar south pole and successfully completes its mission.

- An upgraded LVM3 with a kerosene-fueled core stage makes its debut with a mass simulator; ISRO announces the eventual retirement of the hypergolic-fueled core stage of LVM3.

- Two Gaganyaan test missions are flown, paving the way for the first manned Gaganyaan mission early next year.

- The Russia-USA ISS astronaut barter agreement is extended by a couple more Soyuz and Crew Dragon flights.

- Polaris Dawn launches, raising millions of dollars for St. Jude. Jared Isaacman is the one that conducts the EVA during Polaris Dawn.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2023 05:47 pm by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #4 on: 09/16/2023 12:56 am »
My predictions for 2024:

- ULA launches five Atlas Vs and the last Delta IV Heavy. Two Atlas Vs are dedicated to Project Kuiper while the USSF-51, ViaSat 3 EMEA and Starliner CFT missions are launched too.

- SpaceX launches 140 Falcon rockets (F9 and FH) while Starship flies four times. Two booster catch attempts are made, both of which succeed. Two of the four Starship missions launch Starlink v2 sats.

- Artemis 2 launches on time.

- Vega-C returns to flight in Q4 2024.

- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard.

- Virgin Galactic does at least four SpaceShipTwo flights; one of them is dedicated to science experiments similar to Galactic 01.

- Chang'e 6 launches to the lunar south pole and successfully completes its mission.

- An upgraded LVM3 with a kerosene-fueled core stage makes its debut with a mass simulator; ISRO announces the eventual retirement of the hypergolic-fueled core stage of LVM3.

- Two Gaganyaan test missions are flown, paving the way for the first manned Gaganyaan mission early next year.

- The Russia-USA ISS astronaut barter agreement is extended by a couple more Soyuz and Crew Dragon flights.

- Polaris Dawn launches, raising millions of dollars for St. Jude. Jared Isaacman is the one that conducts the EVA during Polaris Dawn.
While it's a foregone conclusion that the final Delta IV Heavy launch is taking place next year, your prediction about Atlas V flights is in line with the fact that even if the Vulcan rocket is certified for NSSL missions in 2024, the Atlas V isn't going away just yet. Virgin Galactic has completed three commercial flights of SpaceShipTwo so far and will carry out a fourth one in early October, so if Virgin Galactic schedules two more SpaceShipTwo flights in November and December, then SpaceShipTwo could accomplish nine or ten flights in 2024.

Also, the New Shepard is scheduled to resume flights next month. 

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #5 on: 11/20/2023 11:53 am »
My revised predictions for 2024. Some predictions listed here might change due to events between the original posting of this list and 31 December 2023.


Crewed Launches / Space Stations
Quote
Suborbital Crewed Launches
- Blue Origin resumes space tourism flights aboard New Shepard. This may occur after at least one more uncrewed New Shepard flight.
- Virgin Galactic flies VSS Unity twice without any issues before it's retirement.

Orbital Crewed Launches
- SpaceX will launch five Crew Dragon missions (Axion-3, Axion-4, Polaris Dawn, SpX-Crew 8 and SpX-Crew 9).
- Michael Lopez-Alegria will become the first astronaut to reach the ISS on board a Crew Dragon.
- Jareed Isaacman will become the first astronaut to launch twice on a Crew Dragon that doesn't dock to the ISS.
- Polaris Dawn will launch either in Q2 or Q3 2024 and complete most of it's announced objectives.
- Russia will launch two or three crewed Soyuz missions and perform at least one partial crew rotation at the ISS.
- China will launch two or three crewed Shenzhou with at least two crew rotations at their Tiangong station.
- Boeing Starliner CFT will successfully dock with the ISS. At the time Boeing officials may express hope to be launching their first operational mission later in 2024, but that is pushed back to no earlier than Q1 2025.
- Arthemis II is delayed to 2025 after NASA officials spending most of 2024 insisting it will be ready to launch in November 2024. 09 January 2024 - NASA delays Arthemis II to 2025 The announcement of the delay was at least 6 months earlier than expected
- IRSO will launch at least one uncrewed Gaganyaan capsule on an orbital mission while preparing for a crewed launch no earlier than 2025.

- The four orbital crewed vehicles that I predict will launch with a crew in 2024 (Crew Dragon, Soyuz, Shenzhou, and Starliner) will collectively have two achievements.
Quote
- Between ten and twelve crewed launches.
Note: There have been four times that there has been ten or crewed launches in a year. 1985 saw 11 crewed launches while 1992, 1994, and 1997 each saw 10 launches.
The 32+ individuals reaching orbit in 2024 will be the most individuals reaching orbit since 2009 when the Space Shuttle was still flying.

Note: Depending on the number of individuals on board New Shepard tourist flights in 2024, there is a chance for a new record of number of individuals reaching space in 2024.


SpaceX related predictions (mostly similar to my 2023 predictions in this area):
Quote
1) SpaceX will launch their Falcon 9 successfully between 130 and 150 times. I predict in Falcon Heavy and Starship will launch at least three times each in 2024.
1.1) The numbers above would see SpaceX breaking several records they have set in 2023.
1.2) List of orbital launch records in a year broken (list of launch vehicles involved):
» Most launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX (Falcon 9 Block 5, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).
» Most Successful launches by a single launch provider in a year: SpaceX.
» Most launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family (Falcon 9 Block 5 and Falcon Heavy).
» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle family in a year: Falcon 9 family.
» Most launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5.
» Most Successful launches by a single launch vehicle in a year: Falcon 9 Block 5.
   Note: At least one Starship launch will be considered less than successful. There also might be a less than successful launch involving a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

1.3) Record number of orbital launches from one pad: SLC-40 with 80+ Falcon 9 launches.
1.4) Payload mass placed into orbit in a year:
» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle owned and operated by a single company: SpaceX.
» Most satellite payload mass deployed from launch vehicle belonging to a single family: Falcon 9 family.
» Most satellite payload mass deployed from a single launch vehicle: Falcon 9.
   Note: Starship in any of it's variants would not qualify as 'deployed mass'. Fuel transferred between two Starships (any variant) would qualify as 'deployed mass'.

2) SpaceX company records will be set in the following categories.
2.1) Launch pad refurbishment (time spent between two launches from a single launch pad. This will not beat the current world record between two crewed launches on the same pad.)
2.2) Downtime between 3, 4, and 5 launches from the same launch pad.
2.2) Fastest booster refurbishment - might not result in the least time between two launches for that booster.
2.3) Time between 2, 3, 4, and 5 launches using multiple launch pads.

3) Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy events.
3.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach the 20 launch milestone in 2024. As of 25 December 2023 there are three active boosters with 17 flights each
3.2) A Falcon 9 booster will be launched 10 times in 2024.
3.3) Studies will begin studying the viability of launching a Falcon 9 booster 25 times.
3.4) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during either a failed landing attempt or between a successful landing and the booster being successfully transported to it's refurbishment site.
3.5) SpaceX will expend more Falcon 9 boosters or Falcon Heavy side boosters than are lost due to mishaps.
3.6) SpaceX will not attempt to recover any Falcon Heavy center cores.

4) Starship
4.1) Starship will complete a test mission in the first half of 2024.
4,2) Besides the test mission, Starship will launch up to four more orbital missions from Boca Chica.
4.3) Depending on the success of those missions, up to two possible Starship orbital launches from LC39A in the forth quarter of 2024.
4.4) At least one attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster will be made during a Boca Chica launch attempt.
4.5) SpaceX will attempt to recover the Starship Stage at least once.
4.6) The only operational Starship missions in 2024 would involve the deployment of the full size Starlink Gen2 satellites.
4.7) Attempt to transfer fuel between two Starships will be postponed to 2025.
4.8) At least one attempt to launch Starship V2.0 will be made.

5) Starlink
5.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be considered complete by the FCC before the end of Q2 2024.
5.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship will begin.

6) SpaceX will take possession of SLC-6 and start refurbishment of that site to allow launching  F9 and possibly FH. This refurbishment will last until h2 of 2025.

Rocket Lab Predictions:
Quote
1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron orbital launches in 2024.
2) One of Rocket Lab's three launch sites will be used for a record 8th time in a year.
3) Neuton's first flight will be officially delayed until 2025.

Planned maiden orbital launches:

Quote
1) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development prior to 31 December 2019 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024.

2) At least one launch vehicle announced as being in development on or after 1 January 2020 with a first launch scheduled to occur prior to 31 December 2023 according to the same announcement will make it's first orbital launch attempt in 2024.

3) Not all launch vehicles making their first orbital launch attempt in 2024 will successfully reach the intended orbit.
3.1) At least one company responsible for an orbital launch vehicle that failed to reach it's intended orbit would claim that, although the mission was considered either a partial or complete failure by some members of the non-space focused press, internally that company considered it to be at least a partial success by having met what they considered the most challenging goals for that first mission

4) At least one orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2024 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch.

5) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023, was still publicly expected to launch in 2024 based on information provided by the manufacturer, will be either cancelled or officially be postponed to 2025 or later.

6) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new launch vehicle didn't perform according to their expectations.

"Startup" orbital launch vehicle companies:
The term "Startup" for this post would include those companies with less than ten orbital launches.
Quote
1) At least one company which had announced plans to build and launch an orbital launch vehicle will close it's doors in 2024 before it's first launch.

2) At least one "startup" orbital launch vehicle company that closed it's doors between 2018 and the end of 2024 will become the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.

General:
Quote
1) At least one but not all launch providers who announce a goal of launching their launch vehicles a certain number of orbital missions in 2024 will miss their initial goal.

2) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.
2.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve the lower of their original goal and their revised goal.

3) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2023 has more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch. This might not involve a loss of payload on that mission.

4) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2024 because of lawsuits involving them directly or indirectly, or computer animations of proposed projects than they will for their own orbital launches.

5) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 that doesn't specifically mention SpaceX, one of it's launch vehicles, or one of it's facilities in the original post will have someone propose a solution for for a problem mentioned topic based on SpaceX and it's launch vehicles.

6)  More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2024 will be completely off topic within a month of the original post.

7) There will be a 'Predictions for 2025' topic started before the end of 2024.

8) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.

9) Some correct predictions made in this topic that occur in 2024 will see a majority of those contributing to this topic expressing their desire that particular prediction hadn't come true.
« Last Edit: 01/10/2024 04:24 am by AmigaClone »

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #6 on: 11/25/2023 08:08 pm »
SpaceX
1 Starship next launch in Q1
   1a Super Heavy does intended return towards Boca Chica and hovers over water before ditching in water
   1b Starship successfull reentry near Hawaii

2 Second Starship launch of 2024 before end of Q2
   2a Attempt to grab Super Heavy with Mechazilla fails
   2b Starship stays in orbit for multiple orbits and lands successfully

3 Third Starship launch of 2024 before end of Q3
   3a Attempt to grab Super Heavy with Mechazilla fails, but closer to success
   3b Starship stays in orbit for multiple orbits and lands successfully

4 Fourth Starship launch of 2024 before end of Q4
   3a Attempt to grab Super Heavy with Mechazilla succeeds
   3b Starship stays in orbit for two weeks and lands successfully

5 No Starship refueling attempts in 2024

Blue Origin
1 New Glenn first flight on time
   1a Stage separation works, but first stage crashes on landing
   1b Second stage successfully releases payload

2 Blue Moon Development
   1a continues but slips behind schedule as more expensive to develop than expected.

3 Orbital Reef
   3a Becomes a back burner low priority project while New Glenn and Blue Moon require more resources

4 Buys ULA
   4a Wins bidding war for ULA
   4b No serious integration of companies in 2024
   
Artemis II
1 Flies in December
   1a No major problems - successful shakedown cruise
   
Private Space Stations
   1a Axiom makes the most progress
   1b All others slow down as no significant proven commercial demand yet
   
NASA Administrator
1 Bill Nelson on way out at end of year
   1a If Democrat wins presidency, decides age 82 is time to go
   1b If Republican wins, he's on way out - no choice
   
Virgin Galactic
1 Still don't care

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #7 on: 12/08/2023 02:31 pm »
Predictions for 2024 include carryovers from 2023 as well as some new, great expectations

Predictions from 2023 turned out 19/24  correct as of Dec 8th

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56686.msg2444863#msg2444863

2024 Predictions 


* SLS does NOT launch it's very first manned launch in 2024

* Ariane/ULA/China/Japan does NOT field a reusable rocket.

* ULA expendable Vulcan flies 3 times or fewer in '24

* Blue Origin does NOT launch an orbital rocket

* Boeing Starliner will complete crew certification in 2024

* 52 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)

* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test its heat shield.  Ship reaches the surface intact; not necessarily a flawless landing.

* A Starship launch results in a RUD of some kind (booster or ship, expected or not)

* A Starship launch attempts to land either ship or booster

* Falcon Heavy flies (again)

* Crew Dragon flies at least twice (again).

* Falcon 9 reliability in 2024 is perfect (again).

* SpaceX flies more than 110 orbital launches  (96 is the previous record)

* A Falcon 9 booster flies for its 22th mission reused, or more

* Falcon 9 will have more REFLIGHTS in '24 than Atlas V has over it's entire 20 year career

* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does .

* Private astronauts will fly (again) to orbit in 2024

* Over 3 million+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2023. 

* High Speed, low latency starlink internet connections are widely available on airlines/ships/vehicles

* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 5 times

* Rocket lab attempts the FIRST EVER private interplanetary mission. Proving NdGT wrong again.

* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)

* Ariane launches 4 or fewer rockets

* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts
   
« Last Edit: 01/09/2024 08:27 pm by freddo411 »

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #8 on: 12/22/2023 03:13 am »
This is one of my favorite annual traditions.

NASA:
- Artemis II is officially pushed to early 2025, I'll guess Feburary. Vehicle is mostly stacked in the VAB by year end.
- PPE/HALO are on track for late 2025 launch.
- Artemis III is officially pushed to late 2026, but even late 2027 would take a miracle to hit. Starship and suits are the main bottlenecks.
- ML2 work inches along very slowly, but given the delays to EUS and Artemis overall, it may be ready for Artemis IV in 2029/2030.
- Europa Clipper launches on time and successfully
- Dragonfly finally gets some funding and gets the greenlight to begin assembly.
- VERITAS is formally canceled, DAVINCI enters development

ULA:
- Vulcan launches in mid-January after a scrub or two. The launch itself is successful, but Peregrine fails during final landing burn.
- Vulcan will launch 5 more times, including Dream Chaser in the summer.
- CFT launches in July and is a success. Starliner is certified and takes over ISS crew rotations for a bit.
- Delta IV Heavy launches successfully, capping off the nearly 70-year Thor program.

Smallsats:
- ABL flies a second time but fails as well. Third flight goes according to plan.
- Electron enjoys a moderate flight rate and 100% success throughout the year
- Neutron continues to slowly progress (it's not smallsat I know), and some proper stage test tanks and structures are made.
- Firefly continues its low flight rate. It's just a matter of time until Northrop Grumman buys them out I feel.

Blue Origin:
- New Shepard does a few more uncrewed flights before getting back into crew missions. They still don't have a high flight rate.
- NG makes progress, it might even have a shot at flying in Q4. The first test stages (Or maybe flight stages) are on the pad by early Q3 for testing.
- If NG flies, it does not succeed on the first mission.
- Blue buys ULA.

SpaceX:
- Falcon 9 + Heavy launch nearly 130 missions
- SLC-6 work begins, and is on track for mid-to-late 2025 debut. Probably won't see FH for a long while, if ever.
- Starship launches 5 times. Flight 3 succeeds in making it to a nominal SECO, but the ship does not make it through re-entry. Flight 5 would be the earliest for that.
- Booster 12 performs a somewhat-controlled landing in the Gulf on Flight 4. This is successful for Flight 5.
- No catch attempt this year, only water landings.
- Flight 5 attempts a quick re-light of one Raptor engine in a vacuum.
- Flight 6 goes full orbital and does a deorbit burn after 2 orbits. Deploys some test Starlink sats.
- Florida pad work resumes in Q2, perhaps including some reworks given lessons learned in Boca.
- The real Florida Starfactory begins construction in Q2 following land clearing. There won't be anything made there, but the factory is in a good state by year's end.
- Polaris I flies successfully with some amazing EVA footage. Polaris II seems more and more likely as a Hubble mission but details are still in work with NASA.

International:
- Ariane 6 delayed til 2025. Net Q1 by end of year 2024
- Vega flies once, if those tanks can be remade...
- H3 returns to flight and succeeds. HTV-X flies successfully.

Offline tbellman

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #9 on: 12/22/2023 10:18 am »
ULA:
- Vulcan launches [with Astrobotic Peregrine] in mid-January after a scrub or two.

Just a note: the launch period for Peregrine is just a few days each month.  In January 2024, the launch period is 8th-11th; if they can't launch by the 11th, they will need to delay until February.  So unless your "mid-January" includes the 11th, that's very unlikely to happen. :)

Offline kaa

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #10 on: 12/27/2023 02:59 pm »
I asked Google Bard for its spaceflight predictions for 2024. This is what it came up with:

Predicting the future is always tricky, but here are some potential highlights for spaceflight in 2024, based on current plans and trends:

Moon:

    Artemis II: This uncrewed lunar flyby mission, a precursor to Artemis III's crewed landing, could launch as early as May 2024. This mission will test systems and put the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System on a trajectory towards the Moon.
    Increased Lunar activity: We may see additional lunar missions beyond Artemis II, including:
        Chang'e 6: China's mission to collect and return samples from the far side of the Moon is currently slated for May 2024.
        Nova-C and VIPER: NASA's rovers exploring lunar volatiles and ice concentrations could touch down in late 2024.
        Peregrine and Blue Ghost: These private lunar landers may also conduct test flights or resource surveys in 2024.

Private sector:

    Starship: SpaceX's ambitious fully-reusable launch system could see increased flight activity in 2024, potentially reaching orbit multiple times and even attempting booster landings.
    Rocket Lab: This company aims for several Electron launches, potentially reaching four successful orbits, and perhaps even attempting its EscaPADE mission to Mars.
    Virgin Galactic: Suborbital tourism flights could resume with paying passengers, with at least two missions possible.

Beyond the Moon:

    Europa Clipper: This NASA mission to study Jupiter's potentially habitable moon Europa is scheduled for launch in October 2024.
    Hera space mission: This mission will study the DART mission's impact on the Didymos asteroid system, providing additional insights into planetary defense.
    Other planetary missions: We may see additional probes or telescopes launched to Mars, asteroids, or other Solar System destinations.

Other potential developments:

    Increased commercial space activity: More private companies could enter the spaceflight market, offering services like satellite launches, space tourism, or resource extraction.
    Technological advancements: New propulsion technologies, space-based manufacturing, and AI could continue to make strides, shaping the future of space travel.

Uncertainties:

    Geopolitical factors: Space programs can be affected by international relations and changes in government priorities.
    Technical challenges: Unexpected delays or setbacks are always possible in complex space missions.

Remember, these are just predictions, and the actual course of spaceflight in 2024 could be quite different. But one thing is for sure: it promises to be an exciting year for all space enthusiasts!

Offline dchenevert

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #11 on: 12/27/2023 04:27 pm »
I asked Google Bard for its spaceflight predictions for 2024. This is what it came up with:

Predicting the future is always tricky, but here are some potential highlights for spaceflight in 2024, based on current plans and trends:

Moon:

    Artemis II: This uncrewed lunar flyby mission, a precursor to Artemis III's crewed landing, could launch as early as May 2024. This mission will test systems and put the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System on a trajectory towards the Moon.
 

what fell AI-run-amok blursing is this? "uncrewed" and "May 2024", for Artemis II?

Offline joek

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #12 on: 12/27/2023 05:20 pm »
what fell AI-run-amok blursing is this? "uncrewed" and "May 2024", for Artemis II?
Noise based on limited information and unrealistic expectations. Nothing to see here; move along. Or suggest moving the discussion to the How Can AI Be Used for Space Applications? thread.

Offline redliox

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #13 on: 12/27/2023 05:29 pm »
More evidence for Proxima Centauri c

In addition I predict evidence for Alpha Centauri A b, the potential Neptune in A's habitable zone.
"Let the trails lead where they may, I will follow."
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Online sdsds

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #14 on: 12/29/2023 04:59 pm »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2024:

SpaceX:
 - Falcon vehicles (F9+FH) launch between 122 and 155 times.
 - Starship vehicles reach trajectories with orbital-equivalent energy 3, 4, or 5 times.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 launch slips to 2Q 2025.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS (including Axiom) take place with no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Dragon, Cygnus and Dream Chaser fly cargo missions with no mishaps.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar Landings:
 - Mostly success:
    + less than 3 mission attempts fail before or during landing
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions attract minimal attention from the general public

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies successfully at least twice, once with Dream Chaser
 - Japan's H3 flies successfully at least once
 - New Glenn's first flight slips to 2025
« Last Edit: 12/29/2023 04:59 pm by sdsds »
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Offline Star One

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Predictions 2024
« Reply #15 on: 12/29/2023 08:48 pm »
Someone releases a paper announcing the strong evidence of a biosignature in an exoplanet atmosphere using data from JWST.

Vulcan flies at least twice successfully one of these with Dream Chaser.

The H-3 flies successfully at least once.

Europa clipper successfully launches.

Starship flies at least twice more.

More evidence for Proxima C and planets around Alpha Centauri.

JWST will discover something else that upends our understating of the early universe.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2023 08:55 pm by Star One »

Offline nicp

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #16 on: 12/29/2023 09:19 pm »
Vulcan works perfectly on its first flight, but loses a BE-4 engne on the second and is stood down for months.
Starship makes near orbit but disintegrates on re-entry. Starship makes orbit around 10 weeks later. A very few Raptors fail in flight.
One Falcon 9 or heavy failure out of 125 in total... not 144.
One of the Voyagers dies (No!!!)
Mars Odyssey dies.
LC-40 launches a crewed mission (well, of course).
China increases their cadence approaching SpaceX level.


For Vectron!

Online sdsds

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #17 on: 12/29/2023 11:19 pm »
Posted separately since it's a hope rather than a prediction:

- Intuitive Machines will announce an agreement in principle to one day start purchasing from SpaceX LCH4/LO2 propellant at a cis-lunar depot.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #18 on: 12/29/2023 11:33 pm »
"I asked Google Bard for its spaceflight predictions for 2024. This is what it came up with:"
(followed by a page of nonsense)

Well... my job's safe!  (or would be if I had one).

Offline JAFO

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Re: Predictions 2024
« Reply #19 on: 12/30/2023 12:19 am »
Dream Chaser Tenacity has a successful mission, makes the news but is quickly forgotten when there's no "Hero Shots" of astronauts deplaning. OTOH, Space geeks rejoice.
Anyone can do the job when things are going right. In this business we play for keeps.
— Ernest K. Gann

 

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