Who will get to Mars first, USA or China?

[Tywin]

With the new Lunar race on fire, it seems that China is also looking ahead in time, to Mars, who will get there first?

[TrevorMonty]

USA has been there done that multiple times.

[AllenB]

USA has been there done that multiple times.

Seems safe to assume that we're talking about landing *people* on Mars.

Having said that, I voted United States. You can debate the specifics, but IMHO we have at least a plausible path to Mars in SpaceX/Starship. And if/when things start looking good, I'll bet that some NASA money shows up to help.

I'm not aware of any plausible near-term path forward from China, but perhaps I've missed it?

[deltaV]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

[trimeta]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

If/when a Starship first lands on Mars carrying humans, they will have NASA worms on their shoulders, so it certainly counts.

[Hog]

I'm assuming the poll is about sending a person to Mars and that a SpaceX mission or SpaceX/NASA collaboration would count as USA. I voted USA.

If/when a Starship first lands on Mars carrying humans, they will have NASA worms on their shoulders, so it certainly counts.

I hope its in my lifetime. I hope to see Halley's Comet, again. C'mon 2061.

[D_Dom]

My grandmother saw it twice, pretty awesome experience for her. I am not sure I will make it to 102 but sure, come on 2061! Watched grainy, black and white TV broadcast as men walked on the moon. I thought for sure Mars was the logical next step, GO SpaceX!

[jasonjulius1122]

We cannot say for certain whether China or the USA will be the first to reach Mars. Both countries have active space exploration programs and big ambitions. The race to Mars is exciting and competitive, and only time will tell who will come out on top.

[jongoff]

If we're talking about crewed missions, I still think NASA is way ahead of China, even without factoring in SpaceX. I don't think SpaceX is as close to sending a crewed mission to Mars as some of their more fervent fans think, but if they can get a reusable Starship working, even if their baseline architecture doesn't pan out, there are a crap ton of options once you have fully-reusable launch on the table. Plus, at least so far, China has stuck to just copying the worst ideas from past NASA programs. I'll start worrying about them winning if they start embracing rapid reuse, in-space refueling, etc.

~Jon

[Robotbeat]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

[AmigaClone]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

I can see SpaceX potentially attempting a crewed landing on Mars less than six years after Artemis 3 - if that mission, Polaris III, and DearMoon are all successful. Uncrewed SpaceX precursor missions would be launched earlier - although likely later than the HLS for Artemis 3 - unless one of those missions is also used to test large scale refueling.

[Hog]

If Artemis 3 happens and if Dear Moon (etc) happens, SpaceX could probably get to Mars very soon after if they wanted to.

That drives home just how crucial these upcoming crewed missions will be.

[Vahe231991]

If the SpaceX Starship takes people to the Moon in the mid-2020s, then the CZ-9 could be the underdog given that it has not even reached full-scale development and the first flight of the CZ-9 is scheduled for the early 2030s.

[JulesVerneATV]

'Is the US forfeiting its Red Planet leadership to China's Mars Sample Return plan?'

https://www.space.com/astronomy/mars/is-the-us-forfeiting-its-red-planet-leadership-to-chinas-mars-sample-return-plan


Does an orbital station count as a win or do you have to land on the surface, like Russia or US Lockheed the first is the Mars Piloted Orbital Station, Red Planet space station or Soviet design also known as Marspost?


https://web.archive.org/web/20081108061810/http://epizodsspace.testpilot.ru/bibl/pil-ex-na-mars/obl.html

[saturnsky]

The US is forfeiting all leadership in space to China,,,lack of leadership, political infighting,,cancellation of major science programs,,,,its going to be interesting to see the finger pointing if China beats us to the Moon..

[JulesVerneATV]

Mars landed on Earth first?

The largest meteorite from Mars to Earth sold for $4.3 million
https://en.protothema.gr/2025/07/16/the-largest-meteorite-from-mars-to-earth-sold-for-4-3-million/

so Who got there first, lost forgotten Empires the Soviets, before the Rovers and before the Vikings there was Mariner 4 by the USA but the Soviets 'landed' a government that no longer exists, Russian Mars 3 probe 'Марс' on the 2nd day of December 1971, because the soviet probe transmitted for some seconds and delivered data these days it can be classed as a 'Partial Success'.


landing people? building towns, setting up a society and government and culture, making a self sufficient space farm, bio domes, raising family with AI humanoid robots inside a biosphere maybe that's a more interesting philosophical debate

[Kaputnik]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

EDIT: my bad, failed to read the question properly. I think China will send the next crewed mission to the *moon*.

Mars? Anybody's guess at this point

[daedalus1]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

What solid plan?

[catdlr]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

What solid plan?

daedalus1

The notion is that China's announced timetable has achieved its expectations so far. It is a widely held notion that their future ambitions and any dates they have published will be met, based on history so far. For whatever reason, the government is supporting this with the necessary funds and staffing to achieve this.  If you want details, I've sent you the plans that China is following to achieve this. See your PM message from me.

Tony

Update: modified to remove the unnecessary personal remark at the end and clean up the thread.

[jongoff]

I voted USA originally, but am less optimistic now. If Isaacman's nomination hadn't been yanked, I think we'd still have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, but with probably at least another 6-12 months of having an acting administrator, I'm not sure the USA is the favorite for winning that race anymore. There absolutely are things a competent NASA Admin could do to improve the Pwin for the USA, but if we have to wait a year to get one, it may be too late.

~Jon

[daedalus1]

I missed this poll first time round but I have to say, at this moment in time, I'd put my money on China. They have a solid plan, and they're well in to development already.
The US could beat them if they had the will and the funding, and have a less ambitious architecture.

What solid plan?

daedalus1

The notion is that China's announced timetable has achieved its expectations so far. It is a widely held notion that their future ambitions and any dates they have published will be met, based on history so far. For whatever reason, the government is supporting this with the necessary funds and staffing to achieve this.  If you want details, I've sent you the plans that China is following to achieve this. See your PM message from me.

Tony

Update: modified to remove the unnecessary personal remark at the end and clean up the thread.

'The plan' should be posted here for discussion in this group, not as a PM.
That said, there is no way China is sending astronauts to Mars only four windows away in 2033. The difficulty of such a dangerous trip is immense, a journey of at least two and a half years.

[Vultur]

IMO, if Starship works, then US (probably not as soon as Musk hopes).

If Starship doesn't work, and neither do potential Chinese efforts on the same model, then Mars is probably a long way away, and there's no guarantee the first to get there will be either US or China.

[AmigaClone]

IMO, if Starship works, then US (probably not as soon as Musk hopes).

If Starship doesn't work, and neither do potential Chinese efforts on the same model, then Mars is probably a long way away, and there's no guarantee the first to get there will be either US or China.

One timeline proposed by Musk back in September 2017 had the first crewed missions being launched in the 2024 window.

[RedLineTrain]

I voted USA originally, but am less optimistic now. If Isaacman's nomination hadn't been yanked, I think we'd still have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, but with probably at least another 6-12 months of having an acting administrator, I'm not sure the USA is the favorite for winning that race anymore. There absolutely are things a competent NASA Admin could do to improve the Pwin for the USA, but if we have to wait a year to get one, it may be too late.

~Jon

The US effort is not directly based on anything tha NASA is doing.  More or less, NASA is sidelined.

[jongoff]

I voted USA originally, but am less optimistic now. If Isaacman's nomination hadn't been yanked, I think we'd still have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, but with probably at least another 6-12 months of having an acting administrator, I'm not sure the USA is the favorite for winning that race anymore. There absolutely are things a competent NASA Admin could do to improve the Pwin for the USA, but if we have to wait a year to get one, it may be too late.

~Jon

The US effort is not directly based on anything tha NASA is doing.  More or less, NASA is sidelined.

I think that's an inaccurate view on things. I don't think SpaceX or Blue Origin would be actively working lunar lander hardware if it weren't for the HLS money. Now, in SpaceX's case, a subset of the technology needed for the Moon has strong Venn diagram overlap with what they want to build for Starlink and for Mars, but without NASA money, I think they'd only develop those pieces, and bypass the Moon entirely.

~Jon

[RedLineTrain]

I should have been more specific.  NASA is sidelined with respect to Mars, not the moon. As you say, there is also a Venn diagram of overlapping uses.  But the amount of NASA money contributed is becoming a much smaller proportion over time versus the amount SpaceX is contributing.

This is a good thing, but it means that NASA’s actions or wishes don’t mean much with regard to Mars.

[jongoff]

Oh bother, I misread the topic of the thread with my latest replies -- I thought it was talking about a return to the Moon. I agree that Mars is more open to the USA beating China to it. Humans to Mars isn't really even on China's radar yet. While I don't think it's guaranteed that SpaceX will succeed with using Starships to get humans to Mars, I think there's a decent chance (barring some economic or personal catastrophe taking SpaceX or Elon down first), and if it does succeed, it'll likely be a long time before China makes an attempt.

~Jon

[Kaputnik]

Oh bother, I misread the topic of the thread with my latest replies -- I thought it was talking about a return to the Moon. I agree that Mars is more open to the USA beating China to it. Humans to Mars isn't really even on China's radar yet. While I don't think it's guaranteed that SpaceX will succeed with using Starships to get humans to Mars, I think there's a decent chance (barring some economic or personal catastrophe taking SpaceX or Elon down first), and if it does succeed, it'll likely be a long time before China makes an attempt.

~Jon

I did the exact same thing.
China are proving very capable and are moving ever faster. But their space station is essentially Mir, 30yrs later than the original. Their moon plan is a modified Apollo. I struggle try see them pushing so far ahead that they reach Mars first.

[DanClemmensen]

Poll needs three separate choices: China, NASA, SpaceX.

[thespacecow]

There's no point separating NASA from SpaceX, without SpaceX NASA is going nowhere.

[Phil Stooke]

I thought the point of keeping them separate was that SpaceX might go alone, not with NASA.

[RedLineTrain]

The point is that NASA is not on the critical path.  Most of the funding is coming from or related to Starlink.

[volker2020]

Why bother? The race to the moon is over. The US won it!

Science wise, I assume that robots will be better suited to do any research on moon at this point.

So the only interesting question is, who can unlock the resources of the moon, for the benefit of earth, which most likely would require some settlement there.

I can see no clear contenders in that race, but Starship based lunar lander's clearly has a better outlook.

[daedalus1]

Why bother? The race to the moon is over. The US won it!

Science wise, I assume that robots will be better suited to do any research on moon at this point.

So the only interesting question is, who can unlock the resources of the moon, for the benefit of earth, which most likely would require some settlement there.

I can see no clear contenders in that race, but Starship based lunar lander's clearly has a better outlook.

The thread is Mars, not the Moon

[Tywin]

SpaceX is a US company!!

[DanClemmensen]

There's no point separating NASA from SpaceX, without SpaceX NASA is going nowhere.

SpaceX is a US company!!

NASA implements the policy of the US government. If a NASA-led program succeeds in landing on MARS, that would be "USA". SpaceX is a private company. If a SpaceX-led program succeeds, it's not an accomplishment of the US government.

In reality, it will not be that simple. In particular, If SpaceX succeeds, there will be enough involvement by NASA that everyone in NASA and the US congress and administration will claim it's a government-led success.   I guess we might arbitrarily use the affiliation of the crew as the differentiator: If they are NASA astronauts, it's a NASA success. If they are SpaceX employees, it's a SpaceX success.

[catdlr]

There's no point separating NASA from SpaceX, without SpaceX NASA is going nowhere.

SpaceX is a US company!!

NASA implements the policy of the US government. If a NASA-led program succeeds in landing on MARS, that would be "USA". SpaceX is a private company. If a SpaceX-led program succeeds, it's not an accomplishment of the US government.

In reality, it will not be that simple. In particular, If SpaceX succeeds, there will be enough involvement by NASA that everyone in NASA and the US congress and administration will claim it's a government-led success.   I guess we might arbitrarily use the affiliation of the crew as the differentiator: If they are NASA astronauts, it's a NASA success. If they are SpaceX employees, it's a SpaceX success.

Then we could start a thread titled  "Who will get to Mars first, USA or SpaceX?"

[JulesVerneATV]

A bad moon rising — what if China beats US back to lunar surface?
https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/bad-moon-rising-china-ted-cruz-n0xp3ldvm

[eric z]

 I think it will wind up being an international mission, probably in the mid-40s time frame. If SpaceX still exists then I'm sure they will be in the middle of it, but who knows?

[Vultur]

I think it will wind up being an international mission, probably in the mid-40s time frame.

This scenario seems to imply something going very wrong with SpaceX's current plans. Even in a fairly pessimistic model where propellant transfer takes a while to get working, I can't see the plan stretching out more than 6 synods (~2037) unless the program is totally killed in some way.

(say 2026 nothing - no propellant transfer, 2028/29 initial tests, 2031 first cargo attempt - fails, 2033 second cargo attempt - partially successful, 2035 rest of needed cargo, 2037 humans).

So are you assuming a total program failure (propellant transfer can't be made to work even with multiple years of work, SpaceX ownership change & cancellation of Mars program, US government forbids SpaceX from sending Starship to Mars, something like that)?

[JulesVerneATV]

NASA accelerates Artemis II moon mission timeline to February 2026



1989 Study on Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars" or simply, "the 90-Day Study"
https://web.archive.org/web/20080916031414/https://history.nasa.gov/90_day_study.pdf

President Bush proposed today that the United States establish a base on the Moon, send an expedition to Mars and begin ''the permanent settlement of space.''
https://web.archive.org/web/20131214110910/https://www.nytimes.com/1989/07/21/us/president-calls-for-mars-mission-and-a-moon-base.html

In a speech celebrating the 20th anniversary of man's landing on the Moon, Mr. Bush made the first major commitment by a President to these ambitious goals

Dan Goldin became NASA Administrator, and during his tenure near-term human exploration beyond Earth orbit was abandoned, and the "faster, better, cheaper" strategy was applied

the plan by Bush senior or 'SEI' had critics both Democrat and Republicans complained of cost

President Clinton stated that a human mission to Mars was too expensive, less expensive robots would be used in exploration

Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) was a plan for space exploration announced in January 2004 by Bush junior son of Bush senior, 43rd President of the USA, President George W. Bush. It was conceived as a response to the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, finish the ISS, do lots of science, go back to the Moon and use it as a stepping stone to Mars, some blame the cost of Wars and Financial Crisis at the end of Bush and start of Obama.

Obama promised millions to help Space Coast workers affected by the cancellation of the Space Shuttle program and Constellation program,  Ares V (formerly known as the Cargo Launch Vehicle or CaLV) was the planned cargo launch component now cancelled, Ares I was the crew launch vehicle also cancelled, new policy changes from Vision for Space Exploration and Constellation program, the  Space Launch System became new vehicle for human exploration, the private sector or Elon Musk with Sopace-X started to be more successful, Crew Dragon Demo-2 was attended by President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. During the Biden-Harris Administration President Joe Biden's press secretary expressed his support for the Artemis Program, he also expressed support for the Space Force.

Donald Trump elected once again, now supporting Musk's private sector vision for a manned mission to Mars but we also got the Trump–Musk feud.

and once again we have a vision for Mars.

Nasa bans Chinese nationals from working on its space programmes
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wd5qpekkvo
The US currently bans Nasa from sharing its data with China US space agency Nasa has blocked Chinese citizens with valid US visas from its facilities

After the International Space Station, what comes next?
https://earthsky.org/space/international-space-station-ends-2030-what-next/

For years, NASA has successfully sent supplies to the International Space Station using commercial partners. And the agency recently began similar business arrangements with SpaceX and Boeing for transporting crew aboard the Dragon and Starliner spacecraft, respectively.

Based on the success of these programs, NASA invested more than US$400 million to stimulate the development of commercial space stations and hopefully launch and activate them before the ISS is decommissioned.

NASA needs to qualify, not certify. commercial space stations
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/5067/1

US Researchers: "China Surpasses US in Space Exploration as US Cuts Budget"
https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2025091414032113020
As the United States is cutting its space budget, American researchers have analyzed that China is taking the lead in the competition

[JulesVerneATV]

an opinion

NASA's Mars Sample Return Is Dead, Paving The Way For China
https://www.universetoday.com/articles/nasas-mars-sample-return-is-dead-paving-the-way-for-china