Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2023 (Read 18663 times)

Lar · « **on:** 02/19/2023 10:14 pm »

Soo... from the better late than never department. The choices were getting out of hand so went to groups of 5. Should have started before the first of the year, as the first few choices are meaningless, as is the last one.

See last year for the rules.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55469.0

Lar · « **Reply #1 on:** 02/19/2023 10:16 pm »

My rationale. I chose 96-100 because of what Musk said.

Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/31/2022 06:27 pm

twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1564953855384817666

Quote
SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Quote
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

Alvian@IDN · « **Reply #2 on:** 02/19/2023 10:18 pm »

I think the title is a year too early...

CondensedM · « **Reply #3 on:** 02/19/2023 10:21 pm »

Title is probably wrong, i think it should be 2023

(mod hat on) How about now?

deltaV · « **Reply #4 on:** 02/19/2023 11:36 pm »

Falcon and Starlink are mature enough that I expect them to get pretty close to their goal of about 100, but I expect some minor things will go wrong and make them miss a little. I voted 91-95.

D_Dom · « **Reply #5 on:** 02/19/2023 11:45 pm »

Test to correct the year, if it works I am claiming victory

Once I was able to correct Jim and now I have assisted Lar.

Lar · « **Reply #6 on:** 02/20/2023 03:56 am »

Quote from: D_Dom on 02/19/2023 11:45 pm

Test to correct the year, if it works I am claiming victory

Once I was able to correct Jim and now I have assisted Lar.

Thanks! Working too fast!

Robotbeat · « **Reply #7 on:** 02/22/2023 04:35 pm »

I voted for 101-106 as that’s consistent with the current growth rate from the first bunch of flights this year, according to a fit to an exponential curve.

…and because I voted 37 last year when they shot for 60 but actually achieved 61.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #8 on:** 02/22/2023 04:36 pm »

There’s a lot of grouping in the voting here. There should be votes for less than 61 and more than 110, but there aren’t any. Obviously they already have 11 flights, but still… a lot can happen both good and bad.

I can see SpaceX doing like 6 flights of Starship, maybe doing a bunch of RTLS flights for other megaconstellations, maybe adding another barge or increasing the barge speed.

I could also see a couple of major failures pushing their flightrate lower than last year. Both things are well within the realm of possibility (5% chance each of either the very good or the very bad scenarios).

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #9 on:** 02/22/2023 04:41 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/22/2023 04:36 pm

There’s a lot of grouping in the voting here. There should be votes for less than 61 and more than 111, but there aren’t any.

There are a lot of non-SpaceX constraints on the upper end, such as range constraints on the number of launch opportunities. I think the lower bound is based on the assumption that there will be more launches in 2023 than in 2022.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #10 on:** 02/22/2023 04:43 pm »

Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/22/2023 04:41 pm

Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/22/2023 04:36 pm
There’s a lot of grouping in the voting here. There should be votes for less than 61 and more than 111, but there aren’t any.
There are a lot of non-SpaceX constraints on the upper end, such as range constraints on the number of launch opportunities. I think the lower bound is based on the assumption that there will be more launches in 2023 than in 2022.

The range constraints are most certainly not *hard* constraints. These limits have increased in the past and WILL do so in the future as well, maybe even the near future.

And the lower bound is a really bad assumption. Failures happen, and multiple failures can and do happen, as well as unforeseen outside events.

Tywin · « **Reply #11 on:** 02/22/2023 07:00 pm »

81-85...

that is my bet....

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #12 on:** 02/22/2023 08:25 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/22/2023 04:43 pm

Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/22/2023 04:41 pm
Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/22/2023 04:36 pm
There’s a lot of grouping in the voting here. There should be votes for less than 61 and more than 111, but there aren’t any.
There are a lot of non-SpaceX constraints on the upper end, such as range constraints on the number of launch opportunities. I think the lower bound is based on the assumption that there will be more launches in 2023 than in 2022.
The range constraints are most certainly not *hard* constraints. These limits have increased in the past and WILL do so in the future as well, maybe even the near future.

And the lower bound is a really bad assumption. Failures happen, and multiple failures can and do happen, as well as unforeseen outside events.

The problem is that each of these is a single point prediction by a single user, so we should not expect the distribution to reflect the actual predicted distribution of any one user or of any collection of users. Your own personal predicted distribution (longer tails on each end) is not reflected in your single vote. To get an more realistic distribution we would need a different methodology, so you are asking for this poll to provide something it is not designed for.

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #13 on:** 02/23/2023 06:25 pm »

@Lar, maybe you should corrected the 101 to 106 choice in the poll to 101 to 105, since the next choice in the poll is 106 to 110.

DistantTemple · « **Reply #14 on:** 03/23/2023 08:22 pm »

Wow just seen this!
Vote 99
~~Woops closed!~~ TYVM opened - voted

Lar · « **Reply #15 on:** 03/23/2023 08:42 pm »

Quote from: Zed_Noir on 02/23/2023 06:25 pm

@Lar, maybe you should corrected the 101 to 106 choice in the poll to 101 to 105, since the next choice in the poll is 106 to 110.

Fixed, thanks

Comga · « **Reply #16 on:** 03/23/2023 09:49 pm »

Here is my analysis of this year's SpaceX launches poll.
Same method as previous years. Least squares fit of a Gaussian to the data points.
Adaptation for new groupings-of-five is to use the central value i.e. 83 for the 81 to 85 bracket, etc..
The mean of the Gaussian fit is 91.3, and the arithmetic mean is 89.1.
The Poll does indicates a lack of faith in SpaceX reaching Musk's target of 100 launches.
Only 6 votes were for more than 100 launches.
On the other hand, the least number voted for was the low 60's, so none of us expect SpaceX to launch fewer time in 2023 than they did in 2022.
Again, the voting was brisk at the start, slowed after 2 days, then dropped to a trickle.
The concensus formed early and the few votes after that, including a small number of votes that were held until close to the end, didn't make a big difference.
FWIW There seemed to be a slight preference for the "even" fives, N6-N0 vs "odd" fives, N1-N5, like there was preference for even numbers in previous polls.

edit: repost with fixed graph lables