Author Topic: Shiyan-14 & 15 - Kuaizhou-1A - Taiyuan - September 24, 2022 (22:55 UTC) (Read 11995 times)

mikezang · « **on:** 09/05/2022 11:05 am »

Quote

F2736/22 NOTAMN
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/3930S09439E100
A) YMMM
B) 2209242200 C) 2209300400
D) 2209242200 TO 2209250400
2209252200 TO 2209260400
2209262200 TO 2209270400
2209272200 TO 2209280400
2209282200 TO 2209290400
2209292200 TO 2209300400
E) CHINESE AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES WILL TAKE PLACE
FLW RECEIVED FROM CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION OF CHINA:
DUE TO AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES, THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT
IN THE FOLLOWING AREA MAY BE AFFECTED:
401100S 0945500E
400100S 0940000E
385000S 0942300E
390000S 0951700E
FOUR POINT CONNECTION RANGE.
F) SFC G) UNL

Though the time is near former news for Jielong-3 from Yellow Sea, the route is from Taiyuan.

lea.bernier · « **Reply #1 on:** 09/05/2022 12:39 pm »

Looks like CZ-6 from Taiyuan

mikezang · « **Reply #2 on:** 09/05/2022 12:46 pm »

Quote from: lea.bernier on 09/05/2022 12:39 pm

Looks like CZ-6 from Taiyuan

Were there the same drop zones of NOTAMs? I couldn't find so far drop zones for CZ-6.

mikezang · « **Reply #3 on:** 09/05/2022 12:50 pm »

Quote from: mikezang on 09/05/2022 12:46 pm

Quote from: lea.bernier on 09/05/2022 12:39 pm
Looks like CZ-6 from Taiyuan
Were there the same drop zones of NOTAMs? I couldn't find so far drop zones for CZ-6.

You are right, I missed that last CZ-6 drop zone.

lea.bernier · « **Reply #4 on:** 09/05/2022 01:22 pm »

Quote

10 august 2022

F2429/22 NOTAMR F2425/22
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/3942S09429E050
A) YMMM
B) 2208100400
C) 2208100535
E) CHINESE AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES WILL TAKE PLACE FLW RECEIVED FROM CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION OF CHINA: DUE TO AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES, THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT IN THE FOLLOWING AREA MAY BE AFFECTED: 3910S 09508E 4022S 09447E 4012S 09351E 3900S 09413E
F) SFC
G) UNL

So maybe some more Jilin-1 EO sats

mikezang · « **Reply #5 on:** 09/05/2022 01:30 pm »

Quote from: lea.bernier on 09/05/2022 01:22 pm

Quote
10 august 2022

F2429/22 NOTAMR F2425/22
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/3942S09429E050
A) YMMM
B) 2208100400
C) 2208100535
E) CHINESE AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES WILL TAKE PLACE FLW RECEIVED FROM CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION OF CHINA: DUE TO AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES, THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT IN THE FOLLOWING AREA MAY BE AFFECTED: 3910S 09508E 4022S 09447E 4012S 09351E 3900S 09413E
F) SFC
G) UNL

So maybe some more Jilin-1 EO sats

I think Y10 and the newest one are different from CZ-6s before August 10, because there were no drop zones as so far.

Rondaz · « **Reply #6 on:** 09/15/2022 01:47 am »

Halfway into September, there are two more launches confirmed: Long March 2D from Jiuquan on Sep. 20, Long March 6 from Taiyuan NET Sep.24. There'll also be one from Xichang, probably.

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1570094041861345284

Rondaz · « **Reply #7 on:** 09/20/2022 04:54 pm »

It seems we'll see Long March 2D launch another group of Yaogan-35 on Sep. 27 at ~13:10 UTC, as hinted by the previous mission patch collage.

Today is launch day in China too, Long March 2D from Jiuquan at ~23:15 UTC.

In addition, Long March 6 from Taiyuan NET Sep.24.

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1572252828281995264

Fmedici · « **Reply #8 on:** 09/21/2022 07:47 am »

A possibility for this launch could also be the Qilu-2 and Qilu-3 satellites, initially scheduled to be launched on a CZ-6 in July 2022:

https://m.thepaper.cn/baijiahao_16626455

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #9 on:** 09/21/2022 05:46 pm »

A2670/22 NOTAMN Q) ZBPE/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3742N11122E008 A) ZBPE B) 2209242242 C) 2209242304 E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED : N3750E11119-N3749E11127-N3734E11124-N3735E11116, VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL. F) SFC G) UNL

A2671/22 NOTAMN Q) ZGZU/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2909N10941E019 A) ZGZU B) 2209242243 C) 2209242309 E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED : N2928E10938-N2926E10951-N2850E10943-N2852E10930,VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL. F) SFC G) UNL

Uh, what is this? The 37 deg. North zone seems to indicate SRMs being used, but I have not seen such a combination...

mikezang · « **Reply #10 on:** 09/22/2022 12:44 am »

Quote from: mikezang on 09/05/2022 11:05 am

Quote
F2736/22 NOTAMN
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/3930S09439E100
A) YMMM
B) 2209242200 C) 2209300400
D) 2209242200 TO 2209250400
2209252200 TO 2209260400
2209262200 TO 2209270400
2209272200 TO 2209280400
2209282200 TO 2209290400
2209292200 TO 2209300400
E) CHINESE AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES WILL TAKE PLACE
FLW RECEIVED FROM CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION OF CHINA:
DUE TO AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES, THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT
IN THE FOLLOWING AREA MAY BE AFFECTED:
401100S 0945500E
400100S 0940000E
385000S 0942300E
390000S 0951700E
FOUR POINT CONNECTION RANGE.
F) SFC G) UNL
Though the time is near former news for Jielong-3 from Yellow Sea, the route is from Taiyuan.

Quote

F2925/22 NOTAMN
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/4122S09429E032
A) YMMM
B) 2209242246 C) 2209242322
E) CHINESE AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES WILL TAKE PLACE
FLW RECEIVED FROM CIVIL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION OF CHINA:
DUE TO AEROSPACE FLIGHT ACTIVITIES, THE FLIGHT SAFETY OF THE AIRCRAFT
IN THE FOLLOWING AREA MAY BE AFFECTED:
S40 53 00 E 094 23 00
S40 58 00 E 094 52 00
S41 52 00 E 094 36 00
S41 47 00 E 094 07 00
FOUR POINT CONNECTION RANGE.
F) SFC G) UNL

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #11 on:** 09/22/2022 01:13 am »

Looking around all previous launches from TSLC with air space closures, the closest one seems to be the twin KZ-1A launches on 7 December 2019 - those two have similar drop zones within Chinese boundaries, but the ones in the Indian Ocean are very different (around 40 degrees South this time as opposed to 19 S in 2019), so I’m not sure if it’s really KZ-1A. CZ-11 is plausible but it has never flown from Taiyuan so far.

CZ-2C/D/4B/C/6 are all unable to explain the usage of the 37 N zone, while the new CZ-6A should have used one off the Vietnam coast, which is not present today.

mikezang · « **Reply #12 on:** 09/22/2022 01:30 am »

Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 09/22/2022 01:13 am

Looking around all previous launches from TSLC with air space closures, the closest one seems to be the twin KZ-1A launches on 7 December 2019 - those two have similar drop zones within Chinese boundaries, but the ones in the Indian Ocean are very different (around 40 degrees South this time as opposed to 19 S in 2019), so I’m not sure if it’s really KZ-1A. CZ-11 is plausible but it has never flown from Taiyuan so far.

CZ-2C/D/4B/C/6 are all unable to explain the usage of the 37 N zone, while the new CZ-6A should have used one off the Vietnam coast, which is not present today.

The August 10 drop zone is like this one.

mikezang · « **Reply #13 on:** 09/22/2022 02:08 am »

Quote from: mikezang on 09/22/2022 01:30 am

Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 09/22/2022 01:13 am
Looking around all previous launches from TSLC with air space closures, the closest one seems to be the twin KZ-1A launches on 7 December 2019 - those two have similar drop zones within Chinese boundaries, but the ones in the Indian Ocean are very different (around 40 degrees South this time as opposed to 19 S in 2019), so I’m not sure if it’s really KZ-1A. CZ-11 is plausible but it has never flown from Taiyuan so far.

CZ-2C/D/4B/C/6 are all unable to explain the usage of the 37 N zone, while the new CZ-6A should have used one off the Vietnam coast, which is not present today.
The August 10 drop zone is like this one.

maybe you are right as drop zone changed from previous NOTAM.

mikezang · « **Reply #14 on:** 09/22/2022 06:08 am »

The drop zone is far than two launches in past.
The CZ-6 is more possible!

Liss · « **Reply #15 on:** 09/22/2022 07:08 am »

Looks like KZ-1A.
See also

Quote from: Rondaz on 09/17/2022 10:38 pm

CASIC EXPACE is preparing for the launch of Kuaizhou-1A Y14.

KZ1A has made 15 successful out of 17 launches.

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1571266500216102913

mikezang · « **Reply #16 on:** 09/22/2022 07:11 am »

Quote from: Liss on 09/22/2022 07:08 am

Looks like KZ-1A.

Let wait and see.

Rondaz · « **Reply #17 on:** 09/22/2022 10:58 am »

New NOTAMs indicate probably a Kuaizhou-1A launch from Taiyuan at ~22:53 UTC on September 24. It's within the window of a suspected Long March 6 launch on the same day. Maybe we would even see a new record!

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1572875760075173888

mikezang · « **Reply #18 on:** 09/22/2022 11:05 am »

Quote from: Rondaz on 09/22/2022 10:58 am

New NOTAMs indicate probably a Kuaizhou-1A launch from Taiyuan at ~22:53 UTC on September 24. It's within the window of a suspected Long March 6 launch on the same day. Maybe we would even see a new record!

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1572875760075173888

The CZ-6 will be not on the same day if your guess is right.

mikezang · « **Reply #19 on:** 09/23/2022 02:41 pm »

Are those drop zones for Jielong-1?